The Saints Playoff Picture

by Saintsational on Nov 18, 2008 2:00 PM CST Comment 20 comments

Can You Handle It? (MtnExile)

Following the Saints most recent win over Kansas City there are some of you out there in Who Dat Nation who still hold out hope for the Saints to run the table the rest of the season and actually make the playoffs. You're getting that "feeling" like something magical just might happen. The stars will align and the Saints will start playing lights out football the likes of which the NFL has never seen and will never see again. Bounces will go our way. Calls will be in our favor. A Payton challenge will actually get a crucial call overturned in favor of the Saints. All will be right with the world.

Obviously those people are just ignoring the previous season and a half we have already had the misfortune of watching. While I am a realist and I know better I just can't help but get that same feeling of optimism. Not based on talent or anything I have seen on the football field. Just because at some point it has got to be our turn. Crazy crap happens to teams all the time so why the hell can't it happen to us. And let's face it, we all have to have at least a little bit of that masochistic optimism inside of us to still be Saints fans after all these years. So I'm willing to play along. Plus it gets me more pumped for the game on Monday night!

It's about time we take our first look at the ol' playoff picture and it's not as bad as you might think. The first thing we need to make perfectly clear is that the Saints really do need to win out. If we're going to be realistic about this (while unrealistically expecting the Saints to go undefeated) I think we could all agree that the Saints are pretty much going to have to run the table to have any real shot at making the playoffs this season. There is very little wiggle room here and losing even one game would greatly reduce the Saints chances, left only to hope that 10-6 will be good enough for a wildcard. But if the Saints can take care of their own business and get a little help from some key losses in other games it is still possible to win the division.

Below is the remaining schedule of their division opponents; the Panthers, Bucaneers and Falcons. I took the liberty of choosing winners and losers for each game (noted W or L). We're already going out on a limb by assuming the Saints can go undefeated from here on out so I made sure to keep these predictions within the realm of reality. I gave Carolina a win over Denver and I gave them key divisional win's over Atlanta and Tampa Bay. I gave Tampa wins over Oakland and Detroit. I let the Falcons beat San Diego, St. Louis and Minnesota. Obviously the key is the division games. Fortunately there are a still quite a few of them left.

Carolina Panthers

Schedule

@ Atlanta W	Sun 11/23	3:15 PM CST
@ Green Bay L	Sun 11/30	12:00 PM CST
Tampa Bay W	Mon 12/08	7:30 PM CST
Denver W	Sun 12/14	12:00 PM CST
@ New York Giants L	Sun 12/21	12:00 PM CST
@ New Orleans L	Sun 12/28	12:00 PM CST

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Schedule

@ Detroit W	Sun 11/23	12:00 PM CST
New Orleans L	Sun 11/30	12:00 PM CST
@ Carolina L	Mon 12/08	7:30 PM CST
@ Atlanta W	Sun 12/14	12:00 PM CST
San Diego L	Sun 12/21	7:15 PM CST
Oakland W	Sun 12/28	12:00 PM CST

Atlanta Falcons

Schedule

Carolina L	Sun 11/23	3:15 PM CST
@ San Diego W	Sun 11/30	3:05 PM CST
@ New Orleans L	Sun 12/07	12:00 PM CST
Tampa Bay L	Sun 12/14	12:00 PM CST
@ Minnesota W	Sun 12/21	12:00 PM CST
St. Louis W	Sun 12/28	12:00 PM CST

If you plug this formula into PlayoffPicture.com here is what you get...

NFC South

Team	W	L
Saints	11	5
Panthers	11	5
Bucs	10	6
Falcons	9	7

Again, the Saints best chance of making the playoffs would be to go undefeated which would get them at least a wildcard if not a division win. Even the wins against Green Bay and Chicago are important because they give the Saints the better record within the conference which gives them the edge over Carolina in the event of a tie with them. A better head to head gives the Saints the edge over Tamp Bay in the event of a tie with them. If the Bucs, Panthers or Falcons want to lose any more of their games outside of the division, more power to them, but I thought we should assume the worst so I gave them all wins versus their out of division opponents with the exception of the Panthers losing to the Giants. Any extra losses to division rivals at the hands of a non-division conference opponent would be very welcomed. If Tampa and/or Carolina start really tanking then the Saints have a little more breathing room.

Realistically the other teams are all going to win some and lose some but the divisional games are the obvious important ones. It doesn't matter so much who wins the games between the other division teams i.e. Panthers vs. Bucs, the key is just that none of the other teams run away with it and pile up too many wins. Otherwise a shot at the division is out. It should be noted that Playoff Picture says 10-6 does not get the Saints a wildcard within the conference. The other note is that if the Bucs win that second to last game against the Chargers they would win the division and the Saints would grab a wildcard.

So there it is. What do you think? Not so grim? Very grim? What are the chances?

The fact remains, all of this is moot if the Saints don't get their act together and "string together some wins."

Poll

Will the Saints make the playoffs?

Yes

28 votes

No

45 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 20 comments |

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Comments

We've seen it happen before

It’s possible. Some things have to happen though. Like Colston catching passes with his hands, that sort of thing. Jason David covering like Randall Gay. Jeff Charleston playing like the new Jeff Charleston. It’s almost Truman over Dewey hard. But it’s been done. Again, think how bad the Giants looked off and on last year. But they pulled it together and with some luck went on a hell of a streak. Not betting the farm on it, though.

"Coach Payton REALLY needs to string together some wins."

by stujo4 on Nov 18, 2008 2:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

too much to ask for

The Saints would have to go on a big-time winning streak, and I think that is asking too much from a team that has been the poster child of inconsistency. KC is a terrible team, just wait until we play Green Bay (great passing team, our secondary will be in real trouble), Tampa Atlanta Chicago and Carolina are physical teams and we have proven we cannot consistently beat physical teams, Detroit…well, maybe that one. And don’t fall for the trap of looking at other team’s schedules, the Saints have to take care of business to have any chance. It will be fun to watch, but after 40 years of Saints football I am not optimistic. If they do win 5 out of 6, they deserve to go to the playoffs.

by kssaints on Nov 18, 2008 2:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

We can beat Green Bay just like Atlanta did- outscore them. Aaron Rodgers is no Drew Brees.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter?game_id=29592&season=2008&displayPage=tab_gamecenter

"Coach Payton REALLY needs to string together some wins."

by stujo4 on Nov 18, 2008 2:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Remember 1987

It was earlier in the year, but the Saints were sitting stalled at .500. Jim Mora got pissed off and went on a tirade during his press conference. That did it: the Saints won out. That, to me, was the quintessential Magic Year for the Saints…even better than 2006. Coming in to work every single Monday and announcing “Saints won.” I want that again.

One correction, Saintsational: you say that if TB wins against the Chargers, they’d improve in your scenario to 11-5 and win the division. Impossible…they’d have at least 3 division losses. The Saints would only have 2.

Fire Gary Gibbs!

by MtnExile on Nov 18, 2008 2:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wow! If they do it, can Gary Gibbs keep his job?

3-3 to 12-3
Record: 12-3-0, Finished 2nd in NFC West Division
NFL Season Summary

Scored 422 points (28.1/g), 2nd of 28 in the NFL.
Allowed 283 points (18.9/g), 5th.
Differential of 139 points (9.3/g), 3rd.
Expected W-L: 10.8-4.2.

Takeaway/Giveaway Differential +20 (1.3/g), 1st.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nor/1987.htm

"Coach Payton REALLY needs to string together some wins."

by stujo4 on Nov 18, 2008 2:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Fire Gary Gibbs unless the Saints win all the rest of their games and go to the playoffs!

by MtnExile on Nov 18, 2008 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL!!

"Coach Payton REALLY needs to string together some wins."

by stujo4 on Nov 18, 2008 4:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I love tirades

I’ve been calling for one for weeks. I think a Payton tirade would be particularly effective, since he isn’t that kind of guy. You don’t want to be that “here he goes with another tirade” guy, but a well-timed hissy fit can be very useful. You want to be “he’s usually very calm, but holy s%$&, he’s scaring me now – we’d better get our asses in gear or he might hurt us” guy.

by SaintBevo on Nov 18, 2008 6:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sports Illustrated is ALMOST on board

10-6

Fire Gary Gibbs unless the Saints win all the rest of their games and go to the playoffs!

by MtnExile on Nov 18, 2008 4:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Good Post

I think first we have to focus on Green Bay, this reminds me so much of he Minnesota game, if we had one the game we would carried that momentum into Oakland, we would be sitting right there at 6-4. It we can win this game in our own builiding and then go out and beat Tampa, which has an offense our D can handle, then we might have something to cheer about.

This game against GreenBay is big, with Philly and Washington losing plus the fact that we play the NFC North, we can make the playoffs at 10-6

GO SAINTS!!!

by SpindianSaints on Nov 18, 2008 4:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Green Bay, this reminds me so much of he Minnesota game

Me too. I think it is very winnable.

"Coach Payton REALLY needs to string together some wins."

by stujo4 on Nov 18, 2008 4:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

AHHH!!! GET OUT OF MY HEAD!!!

I totally agree with this post.

by xen-cuts on Nov 18, 2008 4:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I love this post but...

I don’t think carolina is going to win more or even half their remaining games. They are seriously overrated. They will lose to denver too. I also think minnesota will beat ATL. Tampa, to me, is the only serious contender as far as other teams go in our division. Carolina and ATL are the benefactors of what we are suffering from: Record is misleading.

by TAYDIGGA on Nov 18, 2008 5:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

dang...

just saw the votes…yall really giving up? Well I’m not giving up until we are mathematically out of it! Who Dat!!!

by TAYDIGGA on Nov 18, 2008 5:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Not giving up

just trying to keep from getting my hopes up. Of course, we’ll win Monday to let my heart start to believe. Probably what will happen is, in true Saints fashion, we’ll reel off 5 in a row, then lay an egg against the Lions.

by SaintBevo on Nov 18, 2008 6:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Detroit

We will win.. and win and win..
Then one day in Detroit.. against the winless lions.. I will watch my team swagger in and get the tar kicked out of them for being cocky.

Someone tell me it wont happen… PLLLLLEASE.

by MT_always on Nov 18, 2008 8:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Okay, here's what I think

regarding everyone’s records.

First, Saints win out (we don’t fall down at Detroit, MT. Look up the Saints-Bengals game, 1987). We wind up 11-5, and 4-2 in the division. Carolina (who I don’t think is overrated) stumbles down the stretch to tie us at 10-5 going into the final week; then we win in the Dome and take the division.

Meanwhile, Atlanta (who I do think is overrated…sorry Dave TF) fades and winds up having a very heartening 8-8 season; and Tampa loses to Carolina to wind up 10-6. What happens to the Panthers and the Bucs in the tiebreaker, I care not; because New Orleans will have won the division—and what’s more, will have EARNED it.

Of course, New Orleans city water is about the worst on Earth, and I drank it for decades, so that could account for my delusional state. Or hey…it could happen.

Fire Gary Gibbs unless the Saints win all the rest of their games and go to the playoffs!

by MtnExile on Nov 18, 2008 8:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'd be perfectly content if we faded

But I think you guys are swigging the black and gold Kool-Aid (blackberry/pear?) I think the Bucs will continue to play above their heads and the Panthers will do their Pantherish things, and we’ll both finish somewhere in the range of 8-8 and 9-7.

I mean this in the nicest way possible, but I really can’t see you beating the Panthers, Bucs, Packers and Bears without a single loss. I could very easily see you guys going 9-7, but I’d be honestly surprised if your defense allowed you to rise above that point.

I hope you won’t all turn on me like a blog version of Lord of the Flies.

by Dave the Falconer on Nov 18, 2008 11:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Good Analysis!!

what would be even better is that Atlanta beats Carolina and loses to Minnesota and San Diego- which think could happen very easily and I am predicting.

by Philinwood on Nov 18, 2008 8:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs