Some Draft Analysis: Past, Present and Future

Alright, we have a few articles out there today to discuss, so lets get into it...

Our good buddy Larry Holder over at the Sun Herald gave us his take on the first round of this years draft and also told us what we absolutely will NOT see:

• Don't look for Virginia defensive end Chris Long, Michigan tackle Jake Long, Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan or Arkansas running back Darren McFadden to end up in New Orleans.

• The Saints may trade up for either defensive tackles Glenn Dorsey of LSU or Sedrick Ellis of USC, but not North Carolina's Kentwan Balmer. They've learned their lesson on reaching for another Sullivan, hopefully.

• A wide receiver will not be selected by the Saints no matter how much the team may like California's DeSean Jackson or Oklahoma's Malcolm Kelly.

Also of interesting note, he gives us percentages of the possibilities of certain players getting drafter. I dont know where he is getting these percentages, but here they are nonetheless.

• DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU - 3%
• DT Sedrick Ellis, USC - 25%
• CB Leodis McKelvin, Troy - 10%
• CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State - 22%
• LB Keith Rivers, USC - 40%

I did the math. It adds up to 100%. So if your going to Vegas to bet on the draft, go with Rivers.

Finally, he gives us a list of the CB's drafted in the top 10 for the last 20 years:

Pacman Jones, Antrel Rolle and Carlos Rogers (2005)
DeAngelo Hall and Dunta Robinson (2004)
Terance Newman (2003); Quentin Jammer (2003)
Champ Bailey and Chris McAlister (1999)
Charles Woodson and Duane Starks (1998)
Shawn Springs, Bryant Westbrook and Tom Knight (1997)
Antonio Langham (1994)
Terrell Buckley and Troy Vincent (1992)
Eric Turner, Bruce Pickens and Todd Lyght (1991)
Mark Carrier (1990
Deion Sanders (1989)

Not a bad list there. I guess if the Saints DO go CB in the first round the odds in our favor that he's NASTY!

Next up...Saints Insider gave us a sneak peak of their latest version of their mock draft. Since it was only a sneak peak, they only told us who the second round pick would be. Their pick...CB Brandon Flowers from Virginia Tech. Since they think the Saints are going CB in the second round, I think its safe to assume they are picking DT or LB for the Saints in the first round. Regardless, I love their attempt to whet our appetite, like its going to be such a shocker when they release their full draft tomorrow.  Sorry, but I think anyone who has been following the draft thus far knows all the most likely scenarios for the Saints this year.

Finally ladies and gentleman, I bring you this interesting article. It comes from our good friends over at ESPN.

Basically it says now that its been three years since the 2005 draft, we can accurately see how great or how poorly the teams did in the draft that year. So how does the Saints draft class look now three years as compared to when we first drafted them? Worse. Of course. What would you expect. But the good news its not THAT much worse. The bright spot is Pro-Bowl OT Jammal Brown. He was the 13th overall pick that year, and it's good to see we didn't blow our first round pick.

...at least the Saints got one of the better and more consistent first-round picks in this draft class.

The downside?

• Adrian McPherson (current grade: 40) was the 10th quarterback taken in the 2005 draft and now is the backup for the Grand Rapids Rampage in the AFL.

Oh well. They can't all be winners. Check out the article, It's pretty interesting. What else is there to read about this time of year anyway. I broke down the Saints draft picks by round since 2002 in my last blog...

First Round
2007 Robert Meachem
2006 Reggie Bush
2005 Jammal Brown
2004 Will Smith
2003 Johnathan Sulllivan
2002 Donte Stallworth
2002 Charles Grant

Second Round
2007 None
2006 Roman Harper
2005 Josh Bullocks
2004 Devery Henderson
2004 Courtney Watson
2003 Jonathan Stinchcomb
2002 LeCharles Bentley

Third Round
2007 Usama Young
2007 Andy Alleman
2006 None
2005 Alfred Fincher
2004 None
2003 Cie Grant
2002 James Allen

Fourth Round
2007 Antonio Pittman
2007 Jermon Bushrod
2006 Jahri Evans
2005 Chase Lyman
2004 None
2003 Montrae Holland
2002 Keyuo Craver

Fifth Round
2007 David Jones
2006 Rob Ninkovich
2005 Adrian McPherson
2004 Rodney Leisle
2004 Mike Karney
2003 Melvin Williams
2002 Mel Mitchell

Sixth Round2007 None
2006 Mike Hass
2006 Josh Lay
2005 Jason Jefferson
2004 None
2003 Kareem Kelly
2002 J.T. O'Sullivan
2002 John Gilmore

Seventh Round
2007 Marvin Mitchell
2006 Zach Strief
2006 Marques Colston
2005 Jimmy Verdon
2004 Colby Bockwoldt
2003 Talman Gardner
2002 Derrius Monroe

It's always interesting to look at the draft from different angles. The obvious conclusion is that the Saints suck in the 6th round.

I would love to know what you guys think. I know your out there! (crickets chirping)