In the NFC, Saints head coach Sean Payton put it to me best during an early August stop at New Orleans' training camp: In the NFL, you always try to bank on the motivated player. The guy who wants it a little bit more than anyone else. In terms of his Saints, that would be Jeremy Shockey, trying to prove to the Giants he was an asset, not a minus. That would be Jonathan Vilma intent on showing the Jets that they gave up on him prematurely. And that would be players such as Reggie Bush, Jason David, Bobby McCray, even Drew Brees, all of whom have a reason to play with a little bit of a chip on their shoulders this season.

So put me down for the Saints-Chargers in Super Bowl XLIII. New Orleans is hungry again after last season's expectations went unmet, and the Chargers, having finally ended their playoff-win drought with a pair of January victories, are poised to take the biggest step of all. The Chargers over the Saints next February in Tampa. In late August, before the games that count even begin, it all makes sense to me at this point. But let's see if the next five months changes everything.