"Best player available"- What does that MEAN?
by stujo4 on Jan 25, 2009 11:01 AM CST
29 comments
A common statement regarding how you select in the annual NFL draft. Is it always the best philosophy?
Nice article in the local paper today (AP) by Andrew Bagnato whoever that is. "Arizona's 2004 draft set tone" is the headline and the topic is that draft is why they are in the 2008 season Super Bowl.
The Cards had been bad for a long time and had a lot of high draft picks that didn't pan out. Dennis Green had just been hired for the 2004 season and was involved in personnel matters. He introduced the concept of the "120 Board". The draft team sat around and decide on who their top 120 draft prospects were and listed them out on a board. On draft day, as soon as a player was taken, he was crossed off the board. When it was time for each Cardinal selection, they took the top remaining guy on their board, regardless of their roster needs. After long discussions, "we had committed ourselves to that order, and so it really took all discussions on draft day out of it" said GM Rod Graves.
2004 draft: Chargers-Eli Manning; Raiders-Robert Gallery; Cardinals-Larry Fitzgerald. Other options at this point were Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Roy Williams (WR), Kellen Winslow Jr., and Sean Taylor. Graves said their was "no question" that they'd take Fitzgerald, whose family had ties to Green from his days with the Vikings. You know the rest. The Cardinals took linebacker Karlos Dansby in the second, DT Darnell Dockett in the third and DE Antonio Smith in the fifth. Hell of a draft.
You can see the Saints draft history here
Haven't we heard Payton and Loomis use this same phrase? It certainly applied in 2006 and we can argue the success of that draft. But for 2009 it does not. They have to draft to fill positions. You could argue that they should have done that in 2008, but they (Payton?) took a kicker, of all things, with his fifth pick and couldn't resist another wide receiver with his sixth. That's lapsing back into "best player available" thinking.
Something to watch while the Saints draft this year, no matter what they say they're going to do.
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yeah, stujo it's part of the eternal dilemma of the draft
Do you select the best player available, or do you choose the best player available at a position of need?
If you stick to your needs, then you may miss out on a hall-of-famer while “reaching” to take another player at a much higher slot than he should be chosen.
And it’s all a crapshoot anyway, and like fantasy drafting, is as much luck as anything else, because talent evaluation is so subjective, injuries happen that you cannot possibly forecast, and sometimes players get mis-matched with teams and coaches and styles of play.
But it’s a fun part of the whole NFL scene to guess and analyze and bitch and moan and then see how things work out in the long run.
And everyone thinking about getting NFL network should do so before the end of the month so they can watch the whole NFL Scouting Combine – that is really for the DRAFT NERDS like us!
The Detroit Lions are on the clock!
by HansDat on Jan 25, 2009 11:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
"Best player available" is an illusion
As HansDat points out, the evaluation of talent is subjective; and that means the talent evaluator, no matter how “objective” he tries to be, will always factor in questions of positional worth. Larry Fitzgerald may have been a very good choice to go at #3 overall—but he wouldn’t have made such an impact on the Cardinals if they hadn’t needed a Pro Bowl wide receiver. In the end, you always draft for need—you just don’t always admit it.
And the worth of draft pick is entirely based on what a team needs, frankly. Take the Saints as an example. Suppose that in their draft slot, the second coming of Joe Montana were available. Great value for the pick, right? Should they take him? Hardly; they already have a great quarterback, and drafting another would likely accomplish nothing but screwing up the team. And they have other needs, such as safety. Would it be a reach to draft a good safety when a great quarterback is available? Maybe for some team; not for a team that is being held back from its ultimate goal not by a lack of good quarterback play, but a lack of good secondary play.
Because the goal is a championship—not the greatest possible percentage of All-Pros on the roster.
Oh when the Saints...Start kicking ass...You don't want to be in that number...
by MtnExile on Jan 25, 2009 12:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Look to the lions
They did that and how well did it work for them?
"OH its a WR,
OH its a WR
OH its a WR
Hey we are winless."
We got Bush by drafting best on the board.
The team that passed on him got a stud that they NEEDED, and they were laughed at for a year.
MT
by MT_always on Jan 26, 2009 7:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
SO
I checked out our draft history. Man, I knew we blew. I din’t know we blew so hard that we should be called fluffers
looking forward to 2010
by asaint on Jan 26, 2009 2:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Pretty Bad!
‘97 has to be my all-time favorite! Molden was a rock star! and Cherry? Whew- was that guy just awesome? Excrement! That’s what Saints Draft history reminds me of. ‘03 was wretched as well (Stinchcomb was ok)…
’86 had to be our best ever….Swilling and Mayes both in the 3rd…. worked out I think.
Didn’t realize we drafted Jack Del Rio.
Hot Boudin, Cold Cous Cous, Comon Tigers Poosh Poosh Poosh!
by Barrylsu5 on Jan 26, 2009 3:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t remember Marc Bulger in 2000. How’d he get away?
Or FB Lorenzo Neal. Where was I??
Change is GOOD.
by stujo4 on Jan 26, 2009 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Bulger
never made it past 3rd string here. Neal played and played well, didn’t re-sign him if I remember correctly.
Hot Boudin, Cold Cous Cous, Comon Tigers Poosh Poosh Poosh!
by Barrylsu5 on Jan 26, 2009 4:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
You remember correctly
Oh when the Saints...Start kicking ass...You don't want to be in that number...
by MtnExile on Jan 26, 2009 4:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
there were
three former backup quarterbacks starting at various points in the season last year: delhomme, bulger and jt o’sullivan. man, aaron brooks was so worth it.
by in the 9th on Jan 27, 2009 8:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather
have fat Sullivan than that donkey (Brooks) on my team… What a clown…
I don’t think there’s much risk of our current 3rd stringer becoming a superstar. Perhaps he should go back to being a jazz pianist.
Hot Boudin, Cold Cous Cous, Comon Tigers Poosh Poosh Poosh!
by Barrylsu5 on Jan 27, 2009 1:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I am completely lost I am completely lost (still)
“that donkey” = OK, I see, it’s Brooks (boy, people really hate Brooks around here; I used to really like him a lot)
Oh, Joey Harrington. Jazz pianist. I’m no Joey fan (loser stink), but why do people have to disparage his musical skills? I hear he’s pretty good. So if Joey always drove a BMW and in an interview quoted Don Henley (“I love those Bavarians. So meticulous.”), would everyone call him “that beemer driving, Henley loving, stinking piano man”? I prefer to mock his hair, personally.
Change is GOOD.
by stujo4 on Jan 27, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not knocking the music.
I’m impressed with his musical ability not his football ability… I should clarify here, he obviously has talent otherwise he wouldn’t be in a professional league- that being said, against the vague standards of football success he falls short of the athletic mark.
I dig jazz- and I wish him luck. Saw him play once (on tv) and he wasn’t bad at all.
Hot Boudin, Cold Cous Cous, Comon Tigers Poosh Poosh Poosh!
by Barrylsu5 on Jan 27, 2009 2:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
A lone voice here...
But I like Joey.
He got a raw deal in Detroit. Lets be honest Brees in Detroit when Joey was there and Brees would be a 3rd stringer now.
He got a raw deal in Maimi. Lets be honest that team stunk.
He was playing pretty well in Atlanta but again it was a pretty crappy deal for him.
I am not saying he is another Brees. But I think he could have been a damn good QB if he had a line to learn how to play behind.
MT
by MT_always on Jan 28, 2009 12:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
May be too late
His confidence has got to be shot at this point. I won’t dispute that he fell into a miserable situation, but he’s been a disappointment to me nonetheless. I was a fan in college and lobbied for him as a better QB than Carr -who knows, he’s still young, and maybe he’ll get another shot before it’s all said and done. If so, I’ll pull for him as I always do.
Hot Boudin, Cold Cous Cous, Comon Tigers Poosh Poosh Poosh!
by Barrylsu5 on Jan 28, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Brees was a disappointment, too
He had a 29-31 TD/Int ratio after three years. His passer rating was 67.5 the year they gave up on him and drafted Philip Rivers. So he did something about it. No, not go home and play some blues on the keyboard: he taught himself to throw blindfold. He worked at becoming the best damned quarterback in the NFL. And the next year he went to the Pro Bowl with a 104.8 passer rating, the best of his career. The rest is, as they say, Saints history.
Brees didn’t just sign with another team in the hope that one more chance would change his luck. He grabbed his luck by the throat and changed it himself. There ain’t no comparison between Drew Brees and Joey Harrington.
Oh when the Saints...Start kicking ass...You don't want to be in that number...
by MtnExile on Jan 28, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
M-E doesn't play Madden 2006 "... I thought he was pretty good. Then he had a bad year..."
Drew Brees WAS pretty good at San Diego. “After three years”, he played in 1 game in the first year. So yeah, after 2 years his ratio was 28-31. So what’d he do the next year? 27-7 ratio, 65.5% completion rate (passer ratings mean literally nothing). Next year, 24-15, 64.6%, that’s a GOOD NFL quarterback. San Diego idiots thought Rivers would be better and cut Drew loose. That’s not on Drew, that’s on the Chargers, and I believe they got NOTHING for him when he signed with the Saints. Morons. Joey Boy is not even part of this conversation, probably partly because of where he has been in the NFL, but mostly because of himself, I have to believe.
Change is GOOD.
by stujo4 on Jan 28, 2009 2:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe if
we plead and beg we can entice Sen. Heath Shuler to come back!
Hot Boudin, Cold Cous Cous, Comon Tigers Poosh Poosh Poosh!
by Barrylsu5 on Jan 28, 2009 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's not a senator
He’s only a representative. Specifically, he’s my representative. Life is weird.
Oh when the Saints...Start kicking ass...You don't want to be in that number...
by MtnExile on Jan 28, 2009 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry, if it sounded like I was comparing Drew and him as equals.
Not comparing .. just saying that a shit deal would be shit deal for anyone.
Brees was not the superman he was.. on the same team so that was on him. Yes he worked to improve but he had a decent team in front of him both before and after the ‘change’.
The only team that Joey has had in front of him is the Saints. He was put on a pedestal in Detroit and told YOU ARE THE SAVIOR! .. and then hung out to dry.
He was told , well you are better then what we have, and hung out to dry in Maimi.
He was told see we need a QB out last real one went to jail, and he couldn’t throw the ball so the line is not set up for that but can you try to stand there? Not hung out to dry, but that line was not protecting a stand up QB they were designed to protect a mobile one. He was doing ok at it.
Barrylsu5 may be right .. hes confidence could be blown. We wont know until he actually plays (unless we are so far up they put him in I am NOT calling for him to play. in Drew We Trust), but I think that he could be a more then serviceable backup still, and would hope if something did happen to Drew that he would prove that to you doubters.
MT
by MT_always on Jan 29, 2009 8:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not to belabor the point (too late)
I will admit I sort of kinda liked Joey early on at Detroit. Because of Barry Sanders (his billboard is back up in Wichita)">http://www.kansas.com/sports/lutz/story/680665.html
But the fact is, Barry played on a crappy team and became a star. Archie Manning played on a crappy team (well, not very good teams. Well, underperforming teams.) and became a star, sort of. I think Joey lived up to his potential.
Change is GOOD.
by stujo4 on Jan 29, 2009 9:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
psst
Detroit was pretty damn good when Barry was there. Suckage on QB yes but that just meant more opportunity for Barry.
This from a Detroit fan who is the first to stand up and scream WE SUCK. Barry is however his all time favorite player but frustrated him as well.. He had more negative yards from scrimmage then anyone else in the history of the NFL, 446 carries for negative 1114 yards.
I mention the negative yards cause of our boy Bush.. there is hope!
Archie… underperforming teams yes.. but nothing compared to the SHIT teams like Detroit has put out the last decade?
Sorry if I am belaboring this, but I really got upset with the Joey ‘stink’ caused us to lose games comments before, and I just don’t feel we are giving him a fair shake.
OH my friend just point out, by the way my friend is not a Joey fan, that a revolving OC and offensive scheme changing every year didn’t actually help him out.
MT
by MT_always on Jan 29, 2009 8:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Time may be the judge of this
Because if Harrington sticks with the Saints, at some point we will have to turn to him. New Orleans fans can be the most forgiving fans in the country—give us some success and bygones is bygones. But we can also turn on you quicker than a rabid wolverine—look what happened to Aaron Brooks.
Oh when the Saints...Start kicking ass...You don't want to be in that number...
by MtnExile on Jan 29, 2009 8:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It happens often enough
How many times have we seen an outstanding college QB drafted high only to fail miserably? More often than not- and not always to the degree of Ryan Leaf: in 1999 alone there was Tim Couch, Akili Smith, and Cade Mcnown; More recently: Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Boller, and so on and so on [and these are just the college players with high pro expectations and does not include the Danny Wuerffels of the sport (outstanding in college but low in pro expectation)] Conversely, many times it is an unexpected player that finds a nitche in the pros: Romo, Warner, Garcia, Delhomme, et. al. Even Brees was a 4th rounder out of Purdue- no one foresaw him as one of the next great QB’s of the game.)
Harrington is certainly not a rare breed in this regard. Indeed, he is a pro QB, he is on a roster and he does have supporters…. I don’t think Leaf has a single fan! This goes straight to the issues of class and personality. Harrington, by all appearances, is a team player, and has yet to have himself earmarked as a head-case.
My point is that it’s not so rare an occurrance that Harrington should be shame-faced.
Hot Boudin, Cold Cous Cous, Comon Tigers Poosh Poosh Poosh!
by Barrylsu5 on Jan 29, 2009 9:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And speaking of Mr. Harrington
I don’t believe I’ve read any supposition on why he remains to be on our roster…
I suppose that Payton sees great potential wasted thus far and Payton (funny I just mis-typed his name and it came out Python – I must have the flying circus on the brain in GERMAN). has his genius mastermind complex kicking in and he sees Harrington as a rescue project that he can turn into GOLD.
I am starving for Saints talk when I spend time speculating on Harrington’s presence on our roster…
The Detroit Lions are on the clock!
by HansDat on Jan 27, 2009 2:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
You ever hear that Boudreaux joke?
I won’t bother going through the whole thing, since it’s not the best one, but in essence a lot of bad shit happens to Boudreaux over and over again, and in the end he throws back his head and cries out, “Why me, God?” And this voice comes down from heaven saying, “Cause Boudreaux, they’s just somethin ’bout you that chaps my ass!” (I said it wasn’t funny.)
It is instructional, though. Maybe that’s why these things keep happening to Saints fans. Don’t overlook the possibility of a curse.
Oh when the Saints...Start kicking ass...You don't want to be in that number...
by MtnExile on Jan 27, 2009 2:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
oh there's a curse all right
“you will forever have an inferiority complex”
You have to believe, people. Follow Drew. He will lead.
Change is GOOD.
by stujo4 on Jan 27, 2009 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
1996
The Saints needed a running back, but instead chose Molden at #11.
Titans chose Eddie George at #14.
Enough said.
Draft need when “close” to making championship run, draft best available when rebuilding.
by Ditka'sGhost on Jan 27, 2009 5:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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