After the Saints impressive win over the Giants, a buddy of mine and I were discussing how big this win was. It showed us that the Saints are for real. I had always contended that the Giants were the team that I feared the most. Their ability to pressure QBs with only their front 4 seemed a pre-requisite to beat the Saints, since Brees has been so legendary against the blitz in his NOLA tenure. That may still be the key, but we certainly didn’t see any of that 4-man pressure on Sunday. This certainly looks like the best Saints team I’ve ever seen BY FAR. Therefore, I don’t think it is ridiculous to consider the most ridiculous of prospects – the Saints as the number 1 seed in the NFC. Now I know it is early, and lots of things can happen along the way, but let’s look at the remaining schedules of the big 3 contenders in the NFC:

New Orleans:

@Miami

vs Atlanta

vs Carolina

@ St. Louis

@ Tampa Bay

vs New England

@ Washington

@ Atlanta

vs Dallas

vs Tampa Bay

@ Carolina

Let’s assume a sweep of crappy Tampa and the woeful Rams and Redskins. Let’s also assume a split with Atlanta. That’s 10-1 with games against Miami, Carolina (Twice), New England and Dallas. Let’s say we beat Dallas, who by week 15 might be in free fall. That’s 11-1. I don’t think Miami is a cake walk, but I’m calling that a win as well – 12-1. That means that even if we split with Carolina and lose to the Pats, we go 13-3. It could happen. The other interesting thing about this schedule is that there are no late season road games up North, a la Chicago the last couple of years.

Minnesota:

@ Pittsburgh

@ Green Bay

BYE

vs Detroit

vs Seattle

vs Chicago

@ Arizona

vs Cincinnati

@ Carolina

@ Chicago

vs NY Giants

Let’s assume that the Vikes beat Detroit, Seattle, Arizona, Carolina and split with Chicago. That’s 11-1. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Cincy will be on the down swing when the Vikes play them – 12-1. That leaves 3 games – Pittsburgh this weekend, @ Green Bay (in the Brett Favre media hype-til-you-puke bowl) and hosting the Giants on the last weekend. Baltimore would’ve helped this picture quite a bit if they had made that FG, but my gut is that the vikes split those first 2 and the Giants game is for all the marbles.

Giants:

vs Cards

@ Philly

vs San Diego

BYE

vs Atlanta

@ Denver

vs Dallas

vs Philly

@ Washington

vs Carolina

@ Minnesota

This is not an easy schedule. Let’s assume wins over Washington, Dallas and Carolina – 8-1. The cardinal game isn’t a walk, but that’s a win, ditto San Diego – 10-1. If we assume a split with Philly, the Gaints are 11-2 not counting 3 games – Atlanta, @ Denver and @ the vikings. IF the Saints do finish 13-3, the Giants would need to swwep those 3 games to get home field, due to their loss to the Saints.

Just for grins, let’s include the Falcons, who while not getting the same press as those top 3, have looked very good:

Atlanta:

@ Dallas

@ New Orleans

vs Washington

@ Carolina

@ Giants (November 22nd)

vs Tampa

vs Philly

vs New Orleans

@ NY Jets (December 20th)

vs Buffalo

@ Tampa

Again, let’s assume wins over Dallas, Washington, Tampa twice, Carolina, and Buffalo – that’s 10-1. Throw in a split with the Saints, and they’re 11-2 with Games at the Giants (in late November) at the Jets (in late December) and hosting Philly. In my mind, the best they can hope for is 1-2 in those games – 12-4

 Now, things might look a lot different in a few weeks. Will some key player get hurt? When Will Brett Favre start throwing stupid picks again? Will some team that looks good now fall apart? Will a team like the Panthers rebound and look better than they do right now – that’s why they play the games. I didn’t look at all the convoluted tie-breakers, but let’s just say this Saints fans- start rooting for the Vikings to lose.