Peter King's column:

Jon Gruden on Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28 with 2:08 to play and a six-point lead Sunday night at Indianapolis:

"A couple of things. If you give Peyton Manning the ball and let him play with four downs, that's a big difference from giving him three downs. [Meaning because the Colts wouldn't punt, Manning would always have four downs to keep the chains moving.] In Tampa, we had a 35-14 lead on Manning with five minutes left, and he beat us. So two minutes, one timeout, four downs ... that's an eternity for Peyton Manning. I know this: There's not too many guys out there, maybe Sean Payton, who would have made that call.''

So I called Payton. What would Payton have done in this case?

"The question you're asking is something I really can't know without actually being there and knowing all the variables,'' he said. The question can't exist in a vacuum, he said. How's your defense holding up? What kind of confidence do you have in your quarterback? Do you fear the other team's offense? Do injuries from the night play a factor?

"Only Bill can know how the game is unfolding, and it's not something he's going to talk about," Patyon added. "There are some things you don't want to say to your team or to the public. I remember learning from Bill Parcells, who also was around Bill [Belichick] forever, that you've got to pay attention to the game. Bill does that better than anyone in our game today.

"Sometimes the conventional thing is what the defense wants you to do. The Colts wanted Bill to punt. But I'm watching the game at home Sunday night, and about five seconds after they didn't make the third down, I'm looking at their sidelines and I say, 'He's going for it.' ''

I got the strong feeling Payton would have punted, but as he said, he wouldn't know for sure without being on his sideline and considering everything -- whether he felt good about getting the two yards, and how he regarded the matchup between his defense and the opposing quarterback.

There's no question in my mind that having Peyton Manning on the other side of the ball changed everything for Belichick.