I thought you would like to see this.
by Ajun Cajun on Nov 18, 2009 8:02 PM CST
6 comments
A computer simulation was done to see what are the chances of the Saints or the Colts have a chance of going 16 - 0. They did 10,001 simulations and the Saints had a 22.0% chance of going 16 - 0 and the Colts had a 22.2% chance. It had the Saints winning each individual game by no less than 65% that was New England. They had us scoring 229 points. The whole story is at http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=2009NFLColtsSaints.
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+1
Pretty interesting stuff, but not much real value. I gave it a rec for sheer entertainment value alone.
"Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake." -- Napoleon Bonaparte
Unless they tell us how the simulation was set up
what data was used, what data disregarded, how the data was weighted, etc. etc. etc, and unless we actually understand what they did, this exercise is literally meaningless.
For instance: if you start by assuming the Saints are better than the Patriots, you shouldn’t be surprised that 10,001 simulations show the Saints usually beating them. You’ve done nothing but demonstrate your assumption.
(And why 10,001? Is this some sort of magic computer number? Is it more accurate than, say, 40?)
I think my bullshit meter is pegged.
Super Bowl 44: "If you play in this league and it's not your goal, there's something wrong with you." -- Marques Colston
Scientifically Speaking
The more simulations the better. 10,001 is considered a very high sample base. Must surveys for instance use 1,444 samples as a demographic. However, the post was to show you something that I thought might be FUN. It wasn’t meant to spark a debate on the merits of the program. It was setup by an independent group, not Saint or Colt fans. I thought some of you might have fun with it.
Ajun Cajun exiled to Charlotte. I miss Mardi Gras and the Jazz Fest so much I could cry.
Interesting Post
I personally never liked surveys, because they can be doctored so easily. Your data is only as accurate as your methods.
Case in point, I can poll 10,001 men on how many wish they were women and get a response of 50 that do. Then I could simply make the survey say what I wish it to.
Of 250 men polled, 50 wish they were women!
"The key to them winning is to limit their quarterback to under 20 throws a game." -Cris Carter
It was not a poll
It was a computer simulation. You like Madden.
Ajun Cajun exiled to Charlotte. I miss Mardi Gras and the Jazz Fest so much I could cry.
Sorry, I was referring to the survey comment you posted.
I recognized it wasn’t a poll, just kind of went off on a tangent.
And, yes, I do like Madden. Especially the new one. Last years’ game fell short imo.
"The key to them winning is to limit their quarterback to under 20 throws a game." -Cris Carter
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