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How the Saints Win on Sunday is More Important Than if They Win


The Saints come into their game at Tampa Bay this Sunday having turned the ball over thirteen times in their last four games. Somehow, they've found a way to win all four of those games despite averaging 3.25 turnovers per game. They've been mistake prone, sloppy and vulnerable. That average number is astronomical, and while the Bucs are bad enough that your black and gold could probably afford a few turnovers and still win, I think we should all be hoping for a clean football game. Four times in a row is starting to become a trend and the Saints are starting to make a habit out of winning ugly. Not to sound like a spoiled fan, but how the Saints win this weekend against a weaker team will mean more to me than if they win.

Saints vs Buccaneers coverage

Star-divide

Should the Saints lose Sunday make no mistake: They will officially be stuck in a funk. The Buccaneers are currently 1-8, and while they've played much better football of late, they are clearly in rebuilding mode while the Saints are eyeing a top NFC seed in the playoffs. There would need to be nothing short of a disastrous performance for the Saints to lose or a performance not too different from the performance they put out last weekend at St. Louis.

As evidenced by the Saints play of late, it's not impossible they'll lose this game. I've learned my lesson from last week when St. Louis played what I thought was an excellent game and almost stole one from the Saints at the buzzer. Regardless of how bad the other team is, if the Saints don't play well they won't be given the game. They need to come out this week and stop horsing around with these weaker opponents.

The key is to come out and get a lead early, force the opposition to be one dimensional playing from behind, and then step on their throats. That was the recipe that launched the Saints to 5-0 and that's the recipe that will ultimately lead to success in the playoffs. Plain and simple, the Saints are not playing well enough right now to win a SuperBowl. Through the first five games they were without question. This week is an opportunity to get back to that level of play. 

Ultimately this is all about how the offense performs. I'm not worried about the defense because they're facing a raw quarterback in Josh Freeman. He's very talented but he's also prone to mistakes. Facing a defense that leads the league in forced turnovers is not a good matchup for Freeman even if both Saints starting corners are out. He will turn the ball over.

If the Saints play a clean game and avoid turning the ball over themselves, they should have no problems. Most of all, that means you Drew Brees. If you happen to get sacked, make sure you have good ball security in the pocket and avoid those two or three awful reads a game you've been having lately that result in bad interceptions.

Give me your prediction: What will be the turnover differential on Sunday? How many turnovers will each team get?

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The ESPY's: Open Thread

Jul 2010 by Dave Cariello - 476 comments

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Interesting commentary

In the past few weeks, negative commentary has been hard to find…. This takes on a whole different slant. This is really old school Saints negativity. This is chicken little talk here.

There is another way to take this……….

Look at what we have in the hand. a winning season. NINE wins = that. that’s all.
period.
Where can we go from here? No guaranteed playoffs. Let’s just go one week at a time.

The Bucs? We beat the Bucs. Why? Because we are the re-incarnation of the 49ers. We got an offense, finally, to match a B- defense. WE BEAT the BUCS.

NO IF’s

by dillyberto on Nov 21, 2009 7:10 AM CST reply actions  

Respectfully disagree...

First and foremost they’d better get a win as this game clearly has implications for the home field advantage going forward (Minnesota for practical purposes is already tied – their only loss is againts an AFC team).

If they win ugly again hopefully they will have a look at it and fix it, but there is nothing more important than winning this game… if it is not cute so be it…

I agree dillyberto… we are seing huge mood swings in the commentary… euphoria… gloom… I wonder what comes next….

Ubi maior minor cessat

by bondcrash on Nov 21, 2009 7:48 AM CST reply actions  

I agree...

if we lose it had better be out of conference.

by xen-cuts on Nov 21, 2009 10:05 AM CST up reply actions  

I think

Our game against the pats will be our true test even if some how we completely screw up this game i dont see a loss.
But a monday night game in the dome against the pats is about as big as it gets in the regular season.
So lets dispatch the bucs this week in any way possible and move on

by mississippisaintsfan on Nov 21, 2009 8:34 AM CST reply actions  

We need a blow out

we need to kill the bucs and then also dominate New England. If we eek out a victory here and have a mock superbowl the next week our season has “let down” written all over it. I don’t want to be the next Tennessee.

by xen-cuts on Nov 21, 2009 10:07 AM CST up reply actions  

If we see a performance akin to the first 5

I think it’ll give the team a lot of confidence going into the Patriots game. If there’s a repeat of the Rams game, how will the team feel going forward? Brady & Co aren’t going to roll over in the 4th quarter. We need to step up and win well this week. It’s nice to hear a 9-0 team saying they’re not happy and they need to perform better, but it’s nicer to see that translate into dominating games on the field.

by Jay Preece on Nov 21, 2009 9:13 AM CST reply actions  

quit worrying about how and just worry about when

Everbody is just waiting for this to somehow fall apart.It shouldn’t be when we fall apart it should be if we fall apart.So far ive seen us take over everygame so much so that we become the Ravens in the second half of the game.Make no mistake the turnovers do hurt but in most of these games we got a few too,most of the time only giveing them one turn over in the the end.Only in the Rams game did they truly beat us there and we still won.Guys go back look at past great teams they look like us,cause we are great.Who can truly say they know of a team out there thats gives up 4 turnovers a game and wins only team to ever do it was the (greatest show on turf)all the past great teams had teams that put up major stats on either OFF or D but no we rule both(we have it all)weve played like a college team in 4 games during the first half,but we come out a super bowl team in the second.Its cause were Saints fans,I bet very few people are saying "man indy barely won those games(just like us)when are they gonna fall(not true fans that know greatness)there saying payton gonna do it all there not sitting back saying dam if we don’t beat this team by 20 points we’re failures.All that matters if not when or how its IF we win.that should be the only thing your looking for.and we will win

WHO DAT BABY NOT THE BUCS BABY

Someone go back in history theres never been a D like we have to go with a OFF like we do either its the D thats great and hopes the offense can score 10 points to win or a great Off that needs a D to make a couple stops that it struggles with.Did you see how we played last year,I can barley remember a 3 and out and OFFs got 3rd and 20 like it was 3rd and 1 look at us now number #1 on third down and a mirrid of 3 and outs some of you really need to pay attention and relize what we truly have here.Quit listing to those dumbass bandwageners on tv cause to do what we have in 9 games not just 5 is greatness and it will pull us through to the palyoffs(ohh get use to this cause were gonna be in this situation for the next ten years) so everone needs to quit worrying about how and just worry about when we win 3 SBs over the next 5years then a win is a win

by darshiva420 on Nov 21, 2009 9:16 AM CST reply actions  

Loss

Las Vegas handicapping expert MC here today to tell all you Saints fans to bet Tampa this week in the outright upset win, mark it down, i am never wrong, put your hearts aside for a week, and get on the gravy train to money!!!!! also take the Raiders, you can’t lose!!!! they will win also.

by yankcor on Nov 21, 2009 10:02 AM CST reply actions  

I better see you back here Sunday afternoon to admit, like a man, you were wrong...
I am never wrong

“Child, Please…”

"They're ready to be like 'Same Old Saints'" - Roman Harper, on each of the New Orleans Saints vanquished foes of 2009

by Hollywoo! on Nov 21, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

If the Raiders and Bucs win this week, I will subscribe to your services.

Should we parlay those 2 ?

by WarWolf on Nov 21, 2009 11:01 AM CST up reply actions  

Is this like one of those Snake Oil sales I've seen on TV

when the “stranger” comes out of the crowd to ask the charismatic huckster if the tonic really can cure his sister’s pock marks?

"I don’t know if there’s a good time to play the New Orleans Saints this year to be quite honest with you."-Steve Spagnuolo

by FuSoYa on Nov 21, 2009 11:10 AM CST up reply actions  

If Bucs and Raiders win this week that poster must know something that no one else knows.

100 to one shot that they both win.

by WarWolf on Nov 21, 2009 3:54 PM CST up reply actions  

The past few games feel like losses

I can write off the close games against Carolina and Atlanta because they are division rivals. But to barely eek out a win against Tampa Bay is pathetic. We need to get this team back on track and playing consistent football on both sides of the ball. We have not done that lately.

by xen-cuts on Nov 21, 2009 10:05 AM CST reply actions  

I predict a +2 turnover differential for the game, Saints 3 takeaways -1 for the Bucs

This will make me happy.

"In the end, the bread was in the pudding." -- Bobby McCray

Shop as usual, and avoid panic buying.

by HansDat on Nov 21, 2009 10:41 AM CST reply actions  

i'll concur with that prediction

A +2 TO differential would make me happy too.

by jful on Nov 21, 2009 12:00 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Brees may be affected by the suicide ruling on his Mom. He must feel some guilt over that and I expect it will be hard for him to concentrate on football.

Bucs have been playing great since Freeman became QB. They are no auto win. They scored 38 points in beating a good Packer defense. Cadillac is healthy. TB D has been effective. Barth kicked 3 50 yarders last week.

Bush and Moore are hurt. Bell Thomas and Colston didn’t do much last week. Sharper may be less than 100 %. Saints could be looking past this to New England.

Therefore, I predict a 38 to 17 Saints win.

by WarWolf on Nov 21, 2009 10:59 AM CST reply actions  

i’ve read that they hadn’t been in touch, that their relationship for the last 10 years or so was ‘non-existent’ in brees’ own words (since his mom wanted him to hire her as his agent). regardless, her passing in august didn’t have a profound effect on his early season performance, and at the time there were rumors it was a suicide. i don’t think he’ll be negatively affected by it simply because the autopsy results just came back.

by jful on Nov 21, 2009 12:05 PM CST up reply actions  

me too

Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!

by skinnykinney on Nov 21, 2009 3:31 PM CST up reply actions  

He's right!

Great stuff Jimmy and thank you for helping with some perspective and facts. Ever since I was a teenager when someone held up that No1 finger, sign or mouthed it into the camera they were NOT talking about the New Orleans Saints! Now I’m thinking when some kid sees someone hold up the No1 sign in the NFL he knows they ARE talking about his SAINTS!

Gris Gris Man, Voodoo Surgeon General and Master of Witch Doctory

by Gris Gris Man on Nov 21, 2009 3:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Callin it

First, and this gets worse every week since New York Giants, I am afraid of this game because of the fact almost ALL pundits forget:

This is a league of professionals-not just players or coaches but the entire organization. To me, the biggest irritant is not that these so called experts don’t understand the game of football-it’s that they don’t appreciate that there is a large corporation, fan-base and many others backing the players.

You have, not only the best of the best OF THE BEST athletes on the field and tacticians on the sideline but, also the greatest and most thorough support staff behind the scenes. More than any other industry, professional sports epitomize capitalism where, IF YOU’RE NOT AN ASSET, YOU’RE A LIABILITY. Plus, you have a fan-base that work not for the weekend but for Sunday football.

With that being said, I get concerned at this point in the season because of the physical, psychological and emotional strain these guys are under. They miss their families-many of them board planes Sunday after the games, fly home til Tuesday night to get back for Wednesday morning practice…they, like anyone else, miss their kids’ plays, family events, birthdays, funerals…

All of that wears on these guys’ psyche-granted, they’re making millions of dollars but it affects them in the same ways it would you and me. Related to our Saints, besides the rest of our team, the medias’ constantly reminding Drew Brees of his tragedy is probably our greatest opponent.

So this is why I’m concerned-many of our players are getting worn-down…that, coupled with Brees’ mothers’ suicide-makes us extremely vulnerable this weekend. Yes, it may take a loss to wake them up but, more likely, a loss would just add another weight. As professionals they will over-come this but a loss is not the answer-it would further break-down morale…

In all honesty, I suspect the injection of new energy from Chris McAlister could be the spark to carry us into the post-season assuming he doesn’t-and I mean this with all due respect-withhold his true condition and drag the entire organization down as the other McAllister did last season. I know that wasn’t Deuce’s intention but we had PT on the roster last year-we should’ve been the NFC representatives last season and not Phoenix.

Win or lose, this is a league of champions and it’s not just the play on the field, coaching, the organization, fan base-it’s all of those plus some. Writers though who are basically paid to make something out of nothing, do all of us-and especially the players-an injustice

by EZRider2 on Nov 21, 2009 11:34 AM CST reply actions  

injuries yes, suicide no

Injuries may do us in but it is almost certain that Brees has known for some time the circumstances of his mother’s death. He is mentally strong and there is no way this coming out in the media will affect his play. More likely it will make him even more determined and more focused.

by TXSaint on Nov 21, 2009 1:14 PM CST up reply actions  

I've heard several

comments that Brees play will be affected by the ruling of suicide for his mother. This ruling was a result of the wait for toxicology results, but was in no way a surprise. It was suspected from the beginning that she committed suicide, this was strictly a formality and shouldn’t affect Brees at all.

"Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake." -- Napoleon Bonaparte

by Cajun in CA on Nov 21, 2009 12:22 PM CST reply actions  

One subject...maybe tabu

There is one subject that, I’m just saying for me and asking ya to think about it, one subject I think is too personal and I got too much mad respect for him to risk hurting anyone’s feelings.

Gris Gris Man, Voodoo Surgeon General and Master of Witch Doctory

by Gris Gris Man on Nov 21, 2009 3:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Love the blog, hate this article

I remember a game at the Steelers in 78 or 79, when those guys ruled the league. We went up there, played a very close game and lost it at the end by a few points. As a kid then, I remember thinking how close we must be to turning the corner if we could play the Steelers that close in their stadium. But it was just an illusion because there is no close in the NFL. You win or you lose. Period.

Many of us have been Saints fans long enough to know that style points don’t matter. It’s about winning, pure and simple. Sure I’d rather win without turnovers, but the other team IS trying to create them as well. We lead the lead in turnovers created. It isn’t JUST the other team screwing up. Sometimes WE make plays.

No one remembers the details of how championships are won, only that they are won. Every game is a slugfest and there are no easy victories. It is about winning pure and simple. And I am thrilled with this team. No ifs, ands, or buts. 9-0 is 9-0. It is simply the best they could have done. End of story.

by TXSaint on Nov 21, 2009 1:12 PM CST reply actions  

TXS

Man, well done….there ya have it.

Gris Gris Man, Voodoo Surgeon General and Master of Witch Doctory

by Gris Gris Man on Nov 21, 2009 3:37 PM CST up reply actions  

We all know that we have to win games

We all know that against some teams we don’t have to bring our A game to win really. For those who say that a W is a W…make sure you don’t say that it was an ugly win or a blowout or close or something like that because it’s then more than just a win. I still believe that we win it all this year. Good teams find ways to win. We’re a good team so we win. Good teams also blow out teams like the Rams. The Bucs are different than the Rams, they switch strong points. The Bucs strong point is defense and the Rams strong point is a strong running game. I think we win this game easily because no matter how good the D is, we’re going to put up plenty of points. They won’t be able to match it. The thing that really bothers me lately is the play of Brees. He’s the main cause of most of these turnovers. If he plays a good, clean game we easily win the TO battle. I agree with you about being worried though. A sloppy game in the playoffs, just one, will put us out probably. Look at the Bears game. We turned the ball over quite a few times and never had a chance. I know, a better D for us, but we probably still wouldn’t win a game like that. That’s why we aren’t as happy as everyone that is saying a W is a W.

Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!

by skinnykinney on Nov 21, 2009 3:44 PM CST reply actions  

"The Bucs strong point is defense"

Are you nuts? Their defense is ranked 29th in total yards given up, 31st in points and yards/play, 26th on 3rd downs. Their rushing defense is 31st giving up 4.9 ypc and 167.3 yards/game! They are 15th in passing yards/game, but that’s only because no one bothers to pass on them (27.4 attempts/game), and when opponents do, TB is giving up a league worst 8.1 yards/attempt. There is nothing strong about Tampa’s defense this year, except maybe the memories of what they used to be like.

by HB-NOLA on Nov 21, 2009 6:05 PM CST up reply actions  

what i meant

was that historically they’ve been a good defensive team. I would expect them to step up moreso than their offense. Also, their offense isn’t that much better. The stats I looked at on NFL.com constantly showed them above 27 on the offensivee stats that i looked at, like total yards, 3rd down %, and points per game.

Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!

by skinnykinney on Nov 22, 2009 11:12 AM CST up reply actions  

I am taking NO in my elimination game this week so Saints have to win.

Been saving them since you can only use a team once and this week is the most sure win for NO the rest of the year in my opinion.

by WarWolf on Nov 21, 2009 3:52 PM CST reply actions  

saints-nation is right, and this is why

Well…sorta right. A Saints loss to the Bucs would be worse than a narrow and badly-played win. But how the Saints actually play is important, too, because the way you win has ramifications for the future.

Think of it this way: suppose we wind up beating Tampa by three touchdowns, and Drew Brees breaks his throwing arm. All the same people who today are saying, “A win is a win, baby!” would be saying “There goes the **** season!” Admit it: you know you would.

But there’s no way you could really know that—the games remain to be played. All you know for sure—or believe you know—is that it doesn’t bode well for the future. And that’s all saints-nation is saying: a continued inability to cut down on turnovers, for instance, doesn’t bode well for the future. A continued inability to stop the run doesn’t bode well for the future. A continued inability to put away bad teams before the final seconds doesn’t bode well for the future.

I know that to the optimists, this all sounds like whining, bordering on cowardice. But to those of us who have concerns about the play of the team, the reluctance to accept and pay attention to the flaws in the Saints smacks of the same kind of denial that refuses to admit the cough that won’t go away, the lump in the breast, or the voices in the head. If something is wrong, you face up to it. Pointing out problems isn’t a buzz kill…it’s rational behavior.

Of course, partying is more fun than worrying, and neither will actually help or harm the Saints. And saints-nation should have added that how the Saints lose would also be more important than the loss itself. A single loss isn’t going to derail our season, but a demoralizing total breakdown might.

I’m actually looking for them to have a tight focus, and return to their early-season form…because I think the players themselves are more concerned than we are.

Super Bowl 44: "If you play in this league and it's not your goal, there's something wrong with you." -- Marques Colston

by MtnExile on Nov 21, 2009 4:44 PM CST reply actions  

counterpoint to counterpoints to Saints-Nation well-made, M-E

a nice read and very valid…

I’m on both sides of the fence, wildly optimistic while trying to be a bit rational, too

"In the end, the bread was in the pudding." -- Bobby McCray

Shop as usual, and avoid panic buying.

by HansDat on Nov 21, 2009 7:06 PM CST up reply actions  

agreed

i’m the same way. I’ve been saying SB since about the time I joined in the offseason but I’m rational about the way we’re winning games because it’s 4 ugly wins and 2 of em we had to come back from big deficits.

Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!

by skinnykinney on Nov 22, 2009 11:10 AM CST up reply actions  

Do not expect anything too flashy

Tampa without a doubt has been getting better, and the saints will most likely struggle again as in the past.
Sean Payton will probally not show too much on offense, and Williams the same on defense.

Rational: If the saints perform subpar on offense and defense, it may give patriots a false sense of security. They may try to take advantage of our deficienies just to find out that they were exaggerated. By the time they figure that out they are already down 14 points and a interception has been thrown I truly believe that the saints are 10X better than they lead on to believe. However, coaching tactics may play into things.

I believe that the patriots will be the biggest obstacle for us to overcome for the duration of the season. I think the coaches understand this, and are preparing for this. Ellis could play but they hold him back. He attended practice several times, and bush has been banged up a little. Being out of this game against Tampa could give them more time watching tapes from New england’s game.

There is always a flip side to things.
What do you guys think?

by jeremysherwin on Nov 21, 2009 8:10 PM CST reply actions  

I don't think that's realistic

First of all, I don’t think we can fool Bill Belichick.

Second of all, the Saints’ recent problems have nothing to do with a lack of imagination or flexibility on either offense or defense, but with poor execution. Especially turnovers. Even if Payton throws out all but one page of the playbook, if the Saints execute sharply we will beat Tampa by three touchdowns. And I don’t believe he would say to anyone, “Don’t play well out there. Make some mistakes. Look bad, so we can instill a false sense of security in Bill Belichick.”

Super Bowl 44: "If you play in this league and it's not your goal, there's something wrong with you." -- Marques Colston

by MtnExile on Nov 22, 2009 7:07 AM CST up reply actions  

agreed

you won’t fool Belichick. You won’t fool any coaches in the NFL into thinking that a 9-0 team isn’t good. They know it’ll be a hard fought game and we expect the same thing. You can’t convince any coaches that a game is a gimme either. We will play hard and play fast. We’ll put up lots of points and get some turnovers. Otherwise, I think it’ll be time to change something up a bit like practice schedule or something to get them to come out fired up.

Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!

by skinnykinney on Nov 22, 2009 11:17 AM CST up reply actions  

Now that it's over...

We got the win, got an impressive performance, +3 on interceptions, no int’s for Brees. We’re ready for the Patriots.

by SaintShark on Nov 22, 2009 7:55 PM CST reply actions  

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