A Proposed Draft Strategy for the Saints This Year
A lot of people--including me--have suggested that the Saints may do better to trade out of their #14 spot in the first round in order to pick up more draft choices--for instance, getting back into the second round, or at least the third.
Something I read today made me wonder, why stop there?
In the spring of 1986, Bill Walsh of the 49ers evaluated that year's draft class and came to the conclusion that there were not a lot of outstanding players, but a lot of good depth. I think something similar holds true this year--a lot of good but not great players in just about every category, and little chance that many of the "greats" will survive to our draft slot. Even the player a lot of people are already focusing on--Malcolm Jenkins--is rated no better than a solid NFL starter, not a game-changer.
What Walsh did in 1986 was to go nuts on the trades. He made so many trades that word got around the league that Bill Walsh was running his own personal fire sale, and you better get in on it while you can:
So the strategy he adopted was to go after quantity and to trade down to get as many picks as possible...
[Walsh] traded the number eighteen pick in the first round to Dallas for its pick at number twenty plus a fifth-rounder. Then he packaged the Dallas pick, plus one of his own in the tenth round, to Buffalo for their second and third-round picks. He also moved another second-round pick to Washington for their first-rounder in 1987. Along the way, the Philadelphia Eagles called to ask if the apparently crazy 49ers president would trade his backup quarterback, Matt Cavanaugh, for a third-rounder now plus a second-round pick next year. Putting that proposal on hold, Mike Holmgren remembered, "Bill hung up the phone and said he had a chance to trade Cavanaugh and asked, "What do you think?" Cavanaugh was an excellent backup, and to a man, every coach in the room said, "Don't do it." Bill listened politely and then said, 'You guys don't know anything,' picked up the phone and says, 'Trade him.'" To cover that sudden vacancy on the roster, Walsh then moved one of his third-rounders from Detroit to the Rams for two fourths and backup quarterback Jeff Kemp.
All told, Bill had made six trades, leaving him with one choice in the second round, three in the third, three in the fourth, one each in the fifth and sixth, and another five between rounds eight and ten...In round two, he selected Larry Roberts, a defensive end out of Alabama, whom the Niners would have taken with their first-round pick if they had kept it. In round three, Bill chose fullback Tom Rathman of Nebraska, cornerback Tim McKyer from Texas-Arlington, and wide receiver John Taylor from Delaware State. Round four yielded linebacker and pass rush specialist Charles Haley out of James Madison, offensive tackle Steve Wallace from Auburn, and Miami defensive tackle Kevin Fagan. In round six, he picked up cornerback Don Griffin from Middle Tennessee State. All eight would become starters for the 49ers--the two corners in their rookie year--and five of them would eventually be selected to the Pro Bowl. [emphasis added]
(From The Genius: How Bill Walsh Reinvented Football and Created an NFL Dynasty, by David Harris)
Walsh very humbly went on to call it "maybe the best draft in NFL history." But if it wasn't quite that, it was damned smart drafting. I remember all those players, because they were instrumental in tormenting the Saints for years.
My point is, why can't we do something similar? The usual suggestion has been to swap first-rounders with someone coveting a player who is still unexpectedly available at #14; that way we could maybe pick up a second-rounder as well. But why not then trade our new first-rounder to someone desirous of ,oving back into the first? Let's say we could pick up another second and a third. Suddenly we've given up Malcolm Jenkins or Brian Cushing--players that nobody's really too sure of in the first round--for two seconds and a third. That could be two brand-new safeties, plus either a good center, a pounding running back, or a small-school pass rusher (is there another Charles Haley out there?). And we'd still have two picks in the fourth, plus a seventh-rounder--and we know that Payton and Loomis are darn good at drafting in the low rounds, so such a strategy could result in an outstanding draft.
I know this scenario is pretty specific--you can't really plan on this without knowing for sure who you'd be trading with, and why, and that can't happen ahead of time. But I think it might be good for the Saints to adopt something like this as a general strategy and be as flexible as possible. Forget the first-round--we probably can't afford a first-rounder's salary, anyway--and concentrate on picking up as much as possible between the 2nd and 4th.
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Comments
good plan
but not everyone has bill walsh like abilitys to sway things his way. if sean could pull that off we have a beautiful future ahead of us
PayLoo might
It’s still a little early to tell, but up to this point the one thing they have done best is evaluate talent and get them to the field. If you are basing it off of a percentage of draft picks that work out, the more the merrier.
looking forward to 2010
I like it
Sounds like a better plan to me. Super-star talent seems pretty thin this year so this plan would fit our needs better. IMO
i would love to trade down
but my only concern is having the cap space to sign all the extra picks. I think MM may have to go if he isn’t in the plans and either have 42 toast restructure his deal or release him to get some more, too
by DeuceisLoose926 on Mar 16, 2009 8:05 AM CDT reply actions
cap
only first rounders are guaranteed a contract. the lower the better and if you trade out of the first completely then if they don’t show up to play in practice..bye bye. besides, its gotta be down to 52 at some point.
i have become an advocate of stay where they are now
PayLoo sometimes wheels and deals too much in the draft. Given where they are with the salary cap, it is probably best to sit tight with the few picks this year rather than wind up trading away a pick in next year’s draft. If this isn’t THE year, you might see the nucleus of this team (especially defense) start to get broken up and the full complement of picks will be needed. Grant, Smith, Fujita, Harper, you guys listening?
Being a Saints fan will take years off your life
I have no problems with saying goodbye to
Smith
Grant
Fujita(if Morgan is healthy)
or Harper
looking forward to 2010
Grant is already gone from the CSC roster listing
Saintsational Dave, you’re not making predictions or anything, are you?
88! WTF??!
mobile your right
thats right, some of these guys have not really performed as advertised. you get a couple of good draft picks that perform as well, kiss that contract goodbye. talk about clear up some cap with grant and smith…maybe we still actually need them tho..hehe
I dont think...
we are too far away from having a better defense. I think if we trade down into the first, we could probably pick up one of the USC OLBs and than get a FS like Louis Delmas or Chung in the 2nd.
"For us, there is no spring... only the smell of fresh wind before the storm."
-Conan of Cimeria
Like Mcdonald's says... I'm lovin it!
Payloo really has shown a penchant for drafting starters or quality backups in the lower rounds. With the execption of safety, they don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Also, it helps not having to pay first round money.
Great post!
Hard to pull off
This is a great idea, but not many teams will want to get a higher pick and pay more money while losing picks, those later picks are valuable for getting warm bodies into camp. Hell, with rookie salaries as high as they are, you could probably sign every single SEC 4th and 5th rounder for the price of one 1st rounder and still have a dump truck of cash left.
I think the Saints would have to either trade some current players or just end up in a really advantageous position with two teams going after the same 1st rounder to be able to pull this of.
by Alabama ManDance on Mar 16, 2009 11:01 AM CDT reply actions
Don't get rid of Harper and Fujita
I disagree that it would be wise to get rid of Fujita or Harper. We need a pass rush from the D-Line – those guys (Fujita and Harper) are now veteran pros in their prime- they played well but were victims of being on a defense with two DEs that underperformed and a FS and multiple CBs that were mediocre as well as a poor def coordinator with a bad plan. If we get a push from the front four all will be fine. If we don’t, it doesn’t matter who is back there.
by Philinwood on Mar 16, 2009 11:31 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
boom rec'd it
I think Harper in particular has been unfairly criticized. This year will show the truth.
88! WTF??!
People may forget
that before Harper was hurt in his rookie year, people were talking about him like they do now about Tracy Porter. In a rational system, he might still develop into a star.
As for Fujita, I wouldn’t cut him before he’s unable to walk. I might not start him, but I’d keep him.
RE-SIGN LANCE MOORE!!!!
Harper
Is one of those enigma’s, wrapped in a riddle…
He had a GREAT game against Green Bay last year. Showed great anticipation and reaction breaking up passes, and laid the WOOD! on one of the Packers wideouts, setting the tone for the game early. He’ll then follow that up with poor performances, where he seems lost in coverage, displaying horrible ball-awareness, commiting P.I.’s.
I agree, he has the talent. We’ve seen it. The same cannot be said for his fellow ex-teammate. I seriously can’t think of one positive play that Bullocks ever made. I am looking forward to seeing Harper blossom this year under GeeDubbbb
Thanks Deuce!
Lots of work to be done
Cut Grant, Shanle, Hollis Thomas and Brian Young. That should clear up space. Keep Smith, McKenzie, and Fujita for at least another season. Hell, we’ve been so prone to injuries these past few seasons, no one ever knows…
My Personal Draft Strategy:
Trade down with (hopefully) Detroit. If Rey Maualuga falls to #14, Detroit will want him, and we’ll get their #20 pick and hopefully either their #33 pick or Round 3 pick. WIth #20, we should eye James Laurinaitis. I have a feeling that the Ravens will try to grab him, so we should act fast on him. Then we should try to make a deal with another team to pick up their 2nd or 3rd round pick. In the 2nd round, we go for safety. Louis Delmas looks good, but so does William Moore. His stock dropped fast, but watch YouTube videos on this guy, he’s a beast. If – big IF – we have those picks locked down, and we miraculously get a 3rd rounder, we go after Rashad Jennings (if we can’t get him, no worries RB Curtis Brinkley will be hanging around Round 7). Round 4 should be either C or DE. Round 7 we could probably grab an overlooked QB to mold (Some people forget that Joe Montana and Tom Brady were low round drafts) , or RB Curtis Brinkley.
Yes, Saints should trade down. Payton and Loomis may pull a Bill Walsh, so part of me shouldn’t be surprised come draft day.
Problem with that
Grant still has five years left on a huge contract. I don’t know what his signing bonus was, but if it’s prorated then all of it would be accelerated to this season if we cut him. That could eat up what’s left of our cap space right there. It might be cheaper to keep him.
RE-SIGN LANCE MOORE!!!!
Trade out of the first
Jee I like your personal strategy, but I’m hoping we avoid the mess of a potential first-round-bust, since this year’s crop seems to be filled with uncertainty.
Unless we’re drafting Knowshon Moreno or Beanie Wells, I say the Saints will trade out of the 1st round completely, maybe for two of New England’s 2nd rounders, or even both of Cleveland’s— “Mangenius” is in full-out rebuilding mode and I could see them striking a deal with us if there is still a high-profile player available then (rumors are a-rumblin’ that they’re not sold on Brady Quinn and therefore could want to trade back in before the Jets/Bucs to grab a QB) or even an early 2nd rounder and some 2nd day picks as well. I don’t think the Saints are sold on the 1st round prospects, so I think we grab a safety at the beginning of 2 and just add depth with some extra picks.
Don’t forget we have next year’s picks to play with, too— if Payton’s giving up a chunk of his personal salary to get Greggggggg, it’s a sign he’s feeling the pressure to win NOW, so maybe they’ll start dealin’ hardcore to make a run this year.
There are so many possibilities and so much potential, so needless to say this is an exciting offseason—how boring would it be if we simply select Jenkins and make no other moves at all?
if i was looking to trade down
Philly may be a god dance partner as they have two NO. 1s in the late portion of the round and we know how they hate to pay money to anyone
Being a Saints fan will take years off your life
trading later pick?
has anyone thought about maybe trading the 4th and 7th to someone for the 2nd if they’d pick it up and go for one of the safeties still available. i haven’t seen an fs being drafted in the 1st round so they best fs’s will still be available in the 2nd round. We could also maybe trade a backup player and a 7th for a 2nd round pick. if we do that, and want more picks in the later rounds still, we could trade one of our 2 4ths for more picks in the later rounds. just an idea
bottom line
grant is too expensive to cut. harper is a good player and can be great in a blitzing d. fujita…why? i think this trading down is a good plan if the right pieces fall into place. a late first and a second or third would help with our depth. maybe grant can play inside, anyone thought of that. he has gained wieght every season it appears. that could fix our pass rush right there.
smith ellis grant mccray
seems like a good front 4
It's not all about pass rush
We need a good nose tackle to keep the blockers off of Vilma. Can Grant play nose tackle? Would he want to?
RE-SIGN LANCE MOORE!!!!
Grant to NT...
seems logical. He has the weight and strength to do it plus he would be quicker than just about every other NT in the NFL so pulling on stunts would really make this D-line fearsome.
I'll say the same thing I said when the talk was of Ditka trading our whole 1999 draft for Ricky Williams
WHY NOT?
How bad could it turn out?
The Detroit Lions are on the clock!
Ditka really threw the dice, didn't he?
What a meathead. Gutsy, though. A better Saints coach than Hank Stram.
88! WTF??!
yeah, his first-round picks until then had been
serviceable (Chris Naeole), ferocious pro-bowler but HEADCASE (Turley)
and his late-round picks were just useless (Weurffel, Troy Davis, Rob Kelly, etc.)
The Detroit Lions are on the clock!
another coach who peaked before he joined the Saints

Some guy who mountain men wish had never been born, standing in the yard with Bum
88! WTF??!
out of content
and im not a mountain man.
My point is your argument for HIS stats.. is the same I use for the other one.
And since I think one is ok.. why would the other not be ok too?
MT
You like Joey Harrington?
Maybe you M’s need to hash this out and leave Archie to bask in his royalty.
88! WTF??!

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