Payton's playcalling on 3rd and 3 or less

by Steve the fan on Mar 30, 2009 8:12 PM CDT Comment 8 comments

I wanted to see how Payton called plays and how they were executed on 3rd and 3 or less downs. I went through last year's play by play sheets and wrote down every instance of 3rd and 3 or less. One reason for using 3rd and 3 or less is that these are supposedly running downs as the Saints average 4.0 yds per run (4.2 for NFL). However, the main reason is that we have complained that the offense can't get a first down running the ball on 3rd and 3 or less.

The Saints were in this situation 72 times, with 39 running plays called.

For 3rd and 1, there were 26 runs for 48 yards (1.9 avg). Of these 9 were for no gain or negative yards.

For 3rd and 2, there were 6 runs for 47 yards (7.8 avg) [PT had a 29 yard run against the Lions; without it 5 for 18 (3.6 avg)].

For 3rd and 3, there were 7 runs for 25 yards (3.6 avg). 1 was for no gain.

What can we infer from this? Is the problem Payton's playcalling? Execution? Both? Or something else?

This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.

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Need more data

If the Saints ran the ball 39 times, that means they passed 33 times (assuming there were no plays that were just completely botched). What types of passes predominated? Screen passes, swing passes, quick slants, out patterns? Who was the most thrown-to receiver? What was the success rate?

There’s also the question of where on the field these plays occurred. A third and 1 on your own 25 opens a lot more of the playbook than a third and one on the opponent’s 8. Likewise, there is also the question of the entire game dynamic: a third and 1 when you’re leading at the two-minute warning is different from a third and 1 with no score in the first quarter.

We assume that there is a problem with Payton’s play calling if the Saints don’t run for the first down enough. But what if they successfully passed for first downs at a higher-than-average rate? Is that a bad thing? And wouldn’t we want Payton to go with what works best, rather than stubbornly trying to run the ball? (I know that sounds backwards…I’m just thinking with my fingers, here.)

RE-SIGN LANCE MOORE!

by MtnExile on Mar 30, 2009 9:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Call me lazy

I didn’t want to take the time to make it more complex or complicated. This took roughly an hour to run through while I was waiting on some food.

On my scratch sheet, I have it broken down by game and by quarter,and there doesn’t seem to be any difference in yardage gained or loss by quarter when running. I didn’t mark down the yardage for passes.

From memory, passes ran the gamut of receptions, drops, and TDs. But the main gist of what I was looking for was that I didn’t think the Saints could get the yards for a first downs in these short yard situations.

Maybe I should have included the passing plays in the above. But there were a total of 72 plays of 3rd and 3 or less.

33 were passes.

6 were on 3rd and 1.
15 on 3rd and 2.
12 on 3rd and 3.

On another day when I have time, I might go back and take a more detailed look.

by Steve the fan on Mar 30, 2009 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good Stuff!!

Steve, Thanks for compiling that ..I love looking over that stuff. On first glance, what stands out to me is that if it’s 2nd down, either get the first down or come up 2-3 yards short- by no means should you come so close that we have a third and one to go!!! LOL But seriously, I think that it might make sense for the Saints to try plays that are designed to pick up 1-2 yards when they are NOT in a 3rd and 1 situation (in hopes that they surprise the defense and get a quick hitter that breaks for 29 yards) and alternatively use the plays in the book that are designed to pick up 7-8 yards when it is 3rd and 1. I.E. stay away from traditional 3rd and 1 plays, at least to start the season. I don’t think trying a play designed to get 7-8 yards would have a worse track record than what they have been getting on 3rd and 1 and I think that this offense is explosive enough that it could work. Can you imagine the opposing DC trying to game plan for 3rd and 1…“oh shit..are they throwing deep into single coverage to Henderson, quick slant to Colston, button hook to shockey, or are they going to cross us up and actually run the ball? " If the lineup has Reggie and PT in the backfield, Henderson wide, Colston slot and Shockey tight, lots of options. Also, Evans can block, run and catch, so if he is in the backfield instead of RB or PT, a real lot of options. Could be why they replaced Karney…..pS looking forward to the "more detailed look”

by Philinwood on Mar 31, 2009 12:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

%

i would like to know some percentages. “For 3rd and 1, there were 26 runs for 48 yards (1.9 avg). Of these 9 were for no gain or negative yards.” so how many times out of the 26 did we get a first down? i think what we all remember the most is how we really needed the first down on 3rd and short we didn’t get it. with a 1.9 average we couldn’t have done that bad throughout the whole process. with the other 3rd and shorts we had an average over what we needed. the numbers don’t lie and according to these we were a good 3rd and short running team but did we have any big runs besides PT’s 29 yard run on those to sort of skew the numbers? idk, i’d want more percentages but i love that you’d take an hour to get your own data and share it with us to give us something to talk about!!

Superbowl bound!!!...I hope? Go Saints! :D

by skinnykinney on Apr 1, 2009 10:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanx Steve

I wish I had the time to compile these lists. Shoot, even if I had the time I wouldn’t even know where to find the play by play sheets. All y’all who devote your precious time to entertain ppl like me, thank you so much.

by BlknGldSoulja on Apr 1, 2009 7:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Good Job Steve

this short ydge. stuff was very glaring this past season, ultimately costing 2/3 losses— stats are one thing and situations are another. My take is, that by your 3rd yr. as a coach of a team, the opposing DC’s know your tendencies, or some of them. i.e. 2006 that reverse worked just about everytime, anywhere on the field, red zone or 50 yd line,2008 it was sniffed out before Saints Off. broke the huddle. I’m also a believer in a QB (doesn’t have to be known scrambler)being able to run for a first maybe 2/3yds 2 to 3 times a game via naked bootleg or climbing the pocket keep the chains moving all the good ones did it, Montana,Elway, Staubach……

You think you know, and you don't know, and you never, ever will know..Jim Mora Sr.

by metryman on Apr 2, 2009 5:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It's complicated

First, our offensive line made a lot of mistakes on those plays early in the year. They probably made some late in the year too, but they were glaring in a few of those early losses.

Second, any handoff to Reggie in that situation is a dead play. How many were his?

Third, Payton’s lack of commitment to rushing in general kills the whole offense when they really, really need to run. You can’t just pop up and run when you feel like it, in spots. That’s one reason why the O line doesn’t do better with the run; they don’t practice it enough.

Interesting stats though Steve.

by BASaintsFan on Apr 17, 2009 2:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Great Post

This Ratio is 39:33 (Run:Pass) instead of 70:30 run b/c deuce was injured or standing on the sideline with helmet on (looked like he was ready to play). SOMETHING was up! Anyway, should be more efficient this year and Payton has said as much. He said he was looking to address a RB in draft and we need to draft a center, which also will help in 3rd and short. HB draw etc I-formation power running finally.

by Norml912 on Apr 20, 2009 4:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs