3rd and 3 or less, Part 2: Electric Boogaloo
by Steve the fan on Apr 2, 2009 9:39 PM CDT
10 comments
This is a more detailed look at the Saints on 3rd or 3 or less. Thanks to ME for the critique of my previous post, this one should be better. By the way, if you want the convoluted spreadsheet (MS Works), I will email it to you.
Start off with a table of total plays.
| Total Plays | 73 | 100% |
| Run Plays | 40 | 54.8% |
| Run Yards | 123 | |
| Pass Plays | 33 | 45.2% |
| Pass Yards | 237 |
Down and Distance breakdown. Payton likes the 3-2 as a passing down.
| 3-1 Plays | 32 | |
| 3-1 Runs | 27 | 84.4% |
| 3-1 Pass | 5 | 15.6% |
| 3-2 Plays | 22 | |
| 3-2 Runs | 6 | 27.3% |
| 3-2 Pass | 16 | 72.7% |
| 3-3 Plays | 19 | |
| 3-3 Runs | 7 | 36.8% |
| 3-3 Pass | 12 | 63.2% |
Receivers Table. Moore is great in these situations. Brees went to Miller more than Shockey. Colston is surprising in both number of thrown tos and catches.
| Receivers | Thrown to | Caught | INC | Results |
| Patten | 1 | 1 | 0 | TD |
| Moore | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5-1st, 2 NF |
| Colston | 4 | 1 | 3 | TD |
| Bush | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 1st |
| Henderson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 1st |
| Sobomehin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 1st |
| Karney | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 1st |
| Deuce | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 1st |
| B. Miller | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 1st |
| Sacks | 1 | 0 | 0 | NF Sack |
| PT | 2 | 1 | 1 | TD |
| Shockey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 1st |
| Passes | 33 | |||
| 1st/TD | 20 | Success | 60.6% | |
| INC/NF | 13 | Fail | 39.4% |
Running Plays. Bush has a poor average in these short yardage situations. PT is surprisingly good. Brees should run more.
| Runners | Runs | Yards | Results |
| Bush | 11 | 15 | 5-1st, 1 TD |
| PT | 12 | 57 | 8-1st |
| Deuce | 10 | 25 | 6-1st, 1 TD |
| Brees | 4 | 19 | 3-1st |
| Karney | 2 | 2 | 1 1st |
| M.Bell | 1 | 5 | 1 1st |
| Runs | 40 | ||
| 1st/TD | 26 | Success | 65.0% |
| NF/FB | 14 | Fail | 35.0% |
Success Rates. On 3-1 plays we should just take a delay of game penalty. 3-2 runs at 100%? How the hell?
| Pass | 3-1 | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Total | 5 | 16 | 12 |
| 1st/TD | 1 | 11 | 8 |
| NF | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| %Success | 20.0% | 68.8% | 66.7% |
| Run | 3-1 | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Total | 27 | 6 | 7 |
| 1st/TD | 16 | 6 | 4 |
| NF | 11 | 0 | 3 |
| % Success | 59.3% | 100% | 57.1% |
Quarter Breakdown. We seem to well in the 1st and 3rd quarters, but the 2nd and 4th we falter.
| Quarter | Plays | Run | Run 1st/TD | Run NF | Pass | Pass 1st/TD | Pass NF |
| 1 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 2 |
| 4 | 21 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
I ask again, what can we infer from this data? Obviously improvements need to be made in certain areas. Some of this is directed at the thought that bringing in a new back will solve this short yard problem, but the Saints ran the ball 398 times and only 40 were running plays. Do we really need a back for roughly 10% of the running plays, when we have PT who seems to be able to do the job?
This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.
2 recs |
10 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Forgot to add this post
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=50
This post has a table (scroll down a bit) with data from 2003 -2005 of success rates for these downs as a gauge for the Saints. It shows we were amazingly sucky on 3-1 plays.
by Steve the fan on Apr 2, 2009 9:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Amazingly sucky
Our success rate is actually better…you’ve reversed the success and failure rates for 3-and-1 runs. 16 out of 27 should be 59.3. (Either that, or you reversed the numbers.) That still doesn’t compare favorably with an NFL average of 71.5. What’s amazing, though, is that teams are stopping us consistently when we try to run the ball—but when we go the pass we’re even worse.
If we had a running back who gained only 32 yards last year—one yard a pop, every time we had a 3rd-and-1—he’d have been the season’s MVP. I can see why Payton is taking such a close look at Wells (although I don’t think Wells can really give anyone that kind of performance).
RE-SIGN LANCE MOORE!
by MtnExile on Apr 3, 2009 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Corrections
The Success % should be 16/27 or 59.3%. And the total for the Runs on 3-3 is 7 with 4 being 1st/TD and 3 NF. The percentage is correct.
by Steve the fan on Apr 3, 2009 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone Know the NFL Averages for this stuff?
It would be interesting to compare. I would think it would be easy to improve this situation. It’s really the only one MAJOR problem the offernse really has and they should be able to fix it since it is so well defined. One or two long completions early in the season on 3rd and 1 could set the stage for a better 3rd and short running game the rest of the season. I have high hopes for Evans, PT and Bell to get the job on 3rd and short.
by Philinwood on Apr 3, 2009 8:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Found a small chart here
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80ae2bf7&template=with-video&confirm=true
with overall rates.
3-1 – Saints 53, NFL 67
3-2 – Saints 77, NFL 52
3-3 – Saints 63, NFL 49
Interesting that we are inverse to the the NFL average.
by Steve the fan on Apr 3, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
predictable
are we just too predictable? there were a few times ( i can’t remember specifically) that we were in a 3-short situation, so they pulled reggie, put in deuce and ran up the middle…
now… isn’t reggie’s role (other than being awesome) to play decoy?
i would imagine that having reggie on the field immediately puts the defense’s focus on him…
i’m not OC but… putting your big play players out on the field, defensive concentration has to be spread thin… everyone knows we love to pass, even on 3-inches… so even with a sorry back, you have colston, bush, lance, shockey, and anyone else out there, i’m sure we can squeeze in a few yards, no?
sometimes i feel like we tell the defense exactly what we’re going to do by taking out key playmakers… basically telling them, “hey we’re running up the middle!”
by nanvinnie on Apr 3, 2009 9:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
"electric boogaloo..."
lol, just watched this movie on netflix/xboxlive two nites ago—classic!
Don't worry I got your back cuz...
by TAYDIGGA on Apr 3, 2009 1:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
heard it on NPR this week
Boogalu (a.k.a. Boogaloo), a fusion of Rhythm and Blues and Cuban son montuno, was popular in the United States from 1966-69. ….Boogalu resonated particularly with African American audiences. Performers such as Jimmy Sabater and Joe Cuba clearly state that Boogalu was inspired by the interaction between African American dancers and Latin musicians in New York at nightclubs such as Palm Gardens Ballroom. They recount stories of how the structure and tone of Boogalu songs such as "Bang, Bang" were developed in an effort to appeal to African American dancers who were not responding to their traditional mambos and cha cha chas.
http://www.salsacrazy.com/salsaroots/boogalu.htm
GW: "Sean, I can’t do anything with this guy."
by stujo4 on Apr 3, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow...
that’s dope!
Don't worry I got your back cuz...
by TAYDIGGA on Apr 7, 2009 3:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
