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3rd and 3 or less, Part 2: Electric Boogaloo

This is a more detailed look at the Saints on 3rd or 3 or less. Thanks to ME for the critique of my previous post, this one should be better. By the way, if you want the convoluted spreadsheet (MS Works), I will email it to you.

Start off with a table of total plays.

Total Plays 73 100%
Run Plays 40 54.8%
Run Yards 123
Pass Plays 33 45.2%
Pass Yards 237

Down and Distance breakdown. Payton likes the 3-2 as a passing down.

3-1 Plays 32
3-1 Runs 27 84.4%
3-1 Pass 5 15.6%
3-2 Plays 22
3-2 Runs 6 27.3%
3-2 Pass 16 72.7%
3-3 Plays 19
3-3 Runs 7 36.8%
3-3 Pass 12 63.2%

Receivers Table. Moore is great in these situations. Brees went to Miller more than Shockey. Colston is surprising in both number of thrown tos and catches.

Receivers Thrown to Caught INC Results
Patten 1 1 0 TD
Moore 7 7 0 5-1st, 2 NF
Colston 4 1 3 TD
Bush 4 2 2 2 1st
Henderson 3 3 0 3 1st
Sobomehin 1 1 0 1 1st
Karney 1 1 0 1 1st
Deuce 2 1 1 1 1st
B. Miller 6 3 3 3 1st
Sacks 1 0 0 NF Sack
PT 2 1 1 TD
Shockey 1 1 0 1 1st
Passes 33
1st/TD 20 Success 60.6%
INC/NF 13 Fail 39.4%

Running Plays. Bush has a poor average in these short yardage situations. PT is surprisingly good. Brees should run more.

Runners Runs Yards Results
Bush 11 15 5-1st, 1 TD
PT 12 57 8-1st
Deuce 10 25 6-1st, 1 TD
Brees 4 19 3-1st
Karney 2 2 1 1st
M.Bell 1 5 1 1st
Runs 40
1st/TD 26 Success 65.0%
NF/FB 14 Fail 35.0%

Success Rates. On 3-1 plays we should just take a delay of game penalty. 3-2 runs at 100%? How the hell?

Pass 3-1 3-2 3-3
Total 5 16 12
1st/TD 1 11 8
NF 4 5 4
%Success 20.0% 68.8% 66.7%
Run 3-1 3-2 3-3
Total 27 6 7
1st/TD 16 6 4
NF 11 0 3
% Success 59.3% 100% 57.1%

Quarter Breakdown. We seem to well in the 1st and 3rd quarters, but the 2nd and 4th we falter.

Quarter Plays Run Run 1st/TD Run NF Pass Pass 1st/TD Pass NF
1 16 12 9 3 4 3 1
2 24 10 6 4 14 7 7
3 12 4 4 0 8 6 2
4 21 14 6 8 7 4 3

I ask again, what can we infer from this data? Obviously improvements need to be made in certain areas. Some of this is directed at the thought that bringing in a new back will solve this short yard problem, but the Saints ran the ball 398 times and only 40 were running plays. Do we really need a back for roughly 10% of the running plays, when we have PT who seems to be able to do the job?

This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.

2 recs  |  Comment 10 comments

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Forgot to add this post

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=50

This post has a table (scroll down a bit) with data from 2003 -2005 of success rates for these downs as a gauge for the Saints. It shows we were amazingly sucky on 3-1 plays.

by Steve the fan on Apr 2, 2009 9:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Amazingly sucky

Our success rate is actually better…you’ve reversed the success and failure rates for 3-and-1 runs. 16 out of 27 should be 59.3. (Either that, or you reversed the numbers.) That still doesn’t compare favorably with an NFL average of 71.5. What’s amazing, though, is that teams are stopping us consistently when we try to run the ball—but when we go the pass we’re even worse.

If we had a running back who gained only 32 yards last year—one yard a pop, every time we had a 3rd-and-1—he’d have been the season’s MVP. I can see why Payton is taking such a close look at Wells (although I don’t think Wells can really give anyone that kind of performance).

RE-SIGN LANCE MOORE!

by MtnExile on Apr 3, 2009 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Corrections

The Success % should be 16/27 or 59.3%. And the total for the Runs on 3-3 is 7 with 4 being 1st/TD and 3 NF. The percentage is correct.

by Steve the fan on Apr 3, 2009 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone Know the NFL Averages for this stuff?

It would be interesting to compare. I would think it would be easy to improve this situation. It’s really the only one MAJOR problem the offernse really has and they should be able to fix it since it is so well defined. One or two long completions early in the season on 3rd and 1 could set the stage for a better 3rd and short running game the rest of the season. I have high hopes for Evans, PT and Bell to get the job on 3rd and short.

by Philinwood on Apr 3, 2009 8:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Found a small chart here

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80ae2bf7&template=with-video&confirm=true

with overall rates.

3-1 – Saints 53, NFL 67
3-2 – Saints 77, NFL 52
3-3 – Saints 63, NFL 49

Interesting that we are inverse to the the NFL average.

by Steve the fan on Apr 3, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

predictable

are we just too predictable? there were a few times ( i can’t remember specifically) that we were in a 3-short situation, so they pulled reggie, put in deuce and ran up the middle…

now… isn’t reggie’s role (other than being awesome) to play decoy?

i would imagine that having reggie on the field immediately puts the defense’s focus on him…

i’m not OC but… putting your big play players out on the field, defensive concentration has to be spread thin… everyone knows we love to pass, even on 3-inches… so even with a sorry back, you have colston, bush, lance, shockey, and anyone else out there, i’m sure we can squeeze in a few yards, no?

sometimes i feel like we tell the defense exactly what we’re going to do by taking out key playmakers… basically telling them, “hey we’re running up the middle!”

by nanvinnie on Apr 3, 2009 9:54 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

"electric boogaloo..."

lol, just watched this movie on netflix/xboxlive two nites ago—classic!

Don't worry I got your back cuz...

by TAYDIGGA on Apr 3, 2009 1:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

heard it on NPR this week
Boogalu (a.k.a. Boogaloo), a fusion of Rhythm and Blues and Cuban son montuno, was popular in the United States from 1966-69. ….Boogalu resonated particularly with African American audiences. Performers such as Jimmy Sabater and Joe Cuba clearly state that Boogalu was inspired by the interaction between African American dancers and Latin musicians in New York at nightclubs such as Palm Gardens Ballroom. They recount stories of how the structure and tone of Boogalu songs such as "Bang, Bang" were developed in an effort to appeal to African American dancers who were not responding to their traditional mambos and cha cha chas.

http://www.salsacrazy.com/salsaroots/boogalu.htm

GW: "Sean, I can’t do anything with this guy."

by stujo4 on Apr 3, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

wow...

that’s dope!

Don't worry I got your back cuz...

by TAYDIGGA on Apr 7, 2009 3:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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