The Verdict: Bayou Style

I agree. Though, Reggie Bush is still an X-factor for us. Can he stay healthy for 16 games? Can Shockey be the guy we hoped he would be last year? But, you’re right that Gregg Williams and how he improves the D is the biggest X-factor. The D HAS to be better. It just HAS to!

We can’t afford to underestimate any of these teams. No one thought much of the Falcons before last season and they wound up being a playoff team. Even the Bucs could surprise us this season. The Panthers and their running game can never be underestimated. But, this will be our year. I can feel it.

i’d say the x-factor for us, is EVERYONE… with brees at the helm, everyone on the offense can become an x-factor.

I’m not convinced that Ryan is All That. To me, the key to the Atlanta Falcons is Michael Turner. Ryan only threw for 16 TDs and 11 INTs last year, people, so the anointing is a bit premature. He averaged only 215 yards per game. The phrase “for a rookie” should be used whenever praising his performance…because truth be told, those are Kyle Orton-esque numbers.

The Falcons don’t do all that well when their running game isn’t clicking (and Ryan isn’t yet a good enough QB to take up the slack); and despite his gaudy totals, Michael Turner pretty much fed on lesser opponents like Detroit and St. Louis, and struggled against average teams. Subtract those two games, and he’s a 3.8-yard rusher. That’s no better than Reggie Bush, who’s being accused of busthood.

The X-factor for the Falcons has got to be their defense. They lost quite a few playmakers in the offseason; and while they drafted and signed heavily to fill those holes, we don’t know yet how well it’s all going to work. That’s why we play the games.

The outlook: Ryan isn’t going to surprise anyone this year; neither is Turner; and defenses will be ready for them. But will Atlanta’s defense be ready too?

Carolina’s running game was phenomenally good last season, and DeAngelo Williams may not even have peaked yet. Barring injuries, the Panthers are going to be dangerous on the ground for some time to come.

Their passing game is another matter. Jake Delhomme (whose numbers are nearly identical to Ryan’s last year, yet who is still widely regarded as mediocre…go figure) has had a career-long tendency to crash and burn from time to time. That it happened at home in the playoffs only made it more prominent, not more significant. If Delhomme can have a good season, the Panthers can repeat.

The X-factor might actually be age. Not only is Delhomme 34, Steve Smith has turned 30. Smith stretches the field better than maybe any other player in the NFL (as the Saints can attest). Last year he had the highest yards-per-reception of his career. If he continues to play at a high level, he can make even the shakiest quarterback look good. But age eventually catches everyone, and losing even half a step would be enough to largely neutralize Smith’s game.

What’s more, Smith plays as though he thinks he’s 6’3 and 260 lbs. When you’re actually only 5’9 and 185, and you’re getting up there in age, you’re an injury waiting to happen.

The outlook: Don’t count out the Panthers yet. John Fox is the sort of coach who can take a bad team and make them play like a good team, or a great team and make them play like a good team. The loss to Arizona suggests that Carolina wasn’t really all that good last year; but that might simply mean they’ll get beat in the playoffs again this season…after winning the division.

If he maintains an intense regimen…he can play another 5 easily.

Carolwhina may never have had back-to-back winning seasons, but they’ve only been around about a decade. Not exactly a huge amount of history there. Mind you I think they will fall off and fall off hard, but guaranteeing it is not exactly safe.

Atwaahhhhnta doesn’t truly worry me. I wouldn’t draft Turner in fantasy if he was still around in the tenth round. He feasted on putrid teams last year and was quite average against the few “real” teams he faced, and he won’t have the HS teams to play with this year. Ryan I do think is pretty good but again part of his “greatness” last year was those same putrid defenses. Playing real teams this year will hurt him a bit too. And then their D doesn’t look all that great this year either.

Tampa dismay was never all that great in the first place. They aren’t the Raiders tho. Nobody else can truly match such a standard for putridity without importing Senile Al. But they might well be the next Redskins tho. Like the Redskins I expect them to look like they are getting better on paper but always find a way to shoot themselves in the foot when it counts.

But the problem for the Saints is that they also face some real teams this year. Our #1 offense last year was also helped by the putrid opponents we faced. I think we will still have a top-5 because Brees is the best QB in the league and anybody who thinks differently needs a reality check. Accuracy is by FAR the most important quality a QB can have and Brees just blows everybody else away in this category. And I’m pretty sure we will have a better running game (it would be hard to be worse!)… but will that be enough? Unless our D steps up — a LOT — I’m afraid Atwahnta or even Carolwhina may managed to steal the division after all.

But if our D does jump up into the top-15 or better then I think we have a very good chance to go VERY deep in the playoffs.

Is a huge X-Factor for the Bucs. If he has even half the success he had with the Giants, the pressure will be off Graham and Cadillac to carry that running game. He’ll also help provide a balanced attack, which will go a long way towards making things easier for whoever winds up being their starting QB. Kellen Winslow should also make a considerable impact, though I don’t expect him to duplicate his Cleveland numbers with Jerramy Stevens still on the roster.

enough “ifs” step up to the plate and suddenly you have a surprise team:
a.k.a. – Falcons last year, 1st round QB, Rookie head coach, unproven starter FA RB, bunch of receivers that were already labeled “busts”, a defense that has never performed, an O-line that gave up over 40 sacks the season before

however, chances aren’t looking in their favor.

The thing that’s scary about Carolina, is as much as they haven’t “improved” this offseason… they haven’t declined at all either. They are going to be the same team they were last season with the same personel. They won’t win 12 games again, but they won’t be pushovers either.

The division is going to be a tossup between the Saints and the Falcons. My money says that when the Falcons and Saints play eachother, they will each win at their own respective homes while managing to each sweep the bucs and panthers. It is going to be close this year, but the Saints do have the advantage of a much easier schedule. The only way the Falcons will make the playoffs by winning the division is if they are significantly better than the saints. It isn’t hard to predict the Falcons will be 10-6 and the Saints will also be 10-6. However, a tie will go to the Falcons based on “strength of schedule”.