I’m pretty frightened of this matchup. It’ll be a good game to watch, but it almost certainly won’t be a good game for our defense. The Jason Peters trade was a much bigger deal than people made out of it because of his subpar performance last year with the Bills, but his performance declined because he was put on an island in pass protection in obvious passing situations against blitz-happy teams. With an excellent, extraordinarily hard-working offensive coach in Andy Reid, Peters’ ability to protect McNabb’s blind side is going to be maximized.

Meanwhile, you really can’t say enough about the Eagles’ draft; they managed to get three first-round talents with their first three picks, without sacrificing anything:

-Maclin’s extremely raw as a route-runner, but having him run across from DeSean Jackson is going to mean an extremely vertical, wide-open offense-a luxury McNabb has rarely had. The West Coast offense’s effectiveness is predicated on the ability to threaten with the deep ball, and now McNabb has two incredible targets for that (not to mention their lethal bubble screen capability).

-Shady McCoy, meanwhile, was the entire offense for the Pitt Panthers his two starting years, and managed to be extremely productive in both the running and passing games without the benefit of a good offensive line, quarterback, or coach. An extremely elusive, undersized, complete back-remind you of any Eagles RBs?

-Cornelius Ingram, meanwhile, was a draft selection despite not having played in a full season due to injury-a commentary on his incredible talent. Had he played last season, I assure you that Florida’s dominance would not have been so late in coming, and that the Ole Miss loss never would have happened. For all the rave reviews that Ingram’s replacement Aaron Hernandez has rightfully drawn, Ingram is an absolute monster in the passing game, an Antonio Gates who can at least pretend to block.

Ponder this offense: you have two wideouts who can completely stretch the field and command the attention of the corners and safeties, meaning that your linebackers will have to cover either Brian Westbrook, Shady McCoy, or Cornelius Ingram in the passing game, a wild, wild mismatch. You have a strong-armed, accurate quarterback with a quick release to deliver the ball, and while he’s not Kurt Warner in this department, he can read and react to a blitz pretty well. It’s basically the Saints offense from last year, more or less, with a slightly worse quarterback and a vastly more complete offensive line.

Our defense’s success will be completely dependent on our ability to pressure and confuse McNabb (not an impossible task, just ask the Pats circa 2004) without sacrificing too many men in coverage. This is going to be the biggest test for our defense all season, I believe, even if it is predicated on the success of three rookies. Our corners will both be put on islands in coverage, manning up against extremely fast receivers. Porter has proven, or at least shown very promising signs, of being able to do just that. Jenkins (who I believe will have the starter’s job sooner rather than later), has shown me, as I’ve watched more and more film on him, just how wrong I was in my draft preview a long time ago. We’ve got an extremely complete player in this kid, a guy who can cover and tackle equally well, provided he’s allowed to play the ball more than play his man. His ability to break up screens and read run plays will be absolutely critical to our success.

Sharper had better be the savviest veteran who ever savvied when game time comes around, whether he’s coaching on or off the field. He’ll have to be the one to anticipate the Eagles’ favorite routes, and prep his corners for every play. If he guesses wrong, we could be toast. Vilma will also have to play like a man possessed, because he will be incredibly busy in coverage and trying (in vain, I predict) to position his slow outside linebackers to deal with the Eagles’ short-range onslaught. Harper will also have to live up to his billing (manufactured mainly by myself and MtnExile) in shallow zone coverage, covering either Ingram or RBs on short patterns and shutting them down.

The Eagles’ run game will probably be on point as long as they can rely on counters and draws like they usually do, especially if Westbrook’s cutback with zone blocking is as deadly as usual. I’m not as worried about this, because if our Scotts are on the field for any reason, it’s to deal with outside runs. If Harper and Vilma both play a shallow zone, a la the Cover-3, then I trust them both enough to get past the Eagles’ blockers and blow up outside runs—they’re both too fast for that to really have a ton of success, provided they don’t overpursue Westbrook or McCoy.

And our defensive line versus their offensive line? It’s going to be a nightmare. Sedrick Ellis is really our lone hope in this department, because if he can prevent McNabb from stepping up in the pocket, he can probably prevent the deep ball a little bit. Otherwise, I think we’re screwed. I would only trust Will Smith (and I wouldn’t trust him, really) to generate the kind of solo pressure we need against a stud like Peters, and we don’t have him available. Our only pass-rushing threat on the outside, Bobby McCray, isn’t going to beat a double-team, or a single team against Peters. Coleman and Spicer can hopefully do something for us, but I really wouldn’t count on anything but helping occupy blocks against their running game.

As for the Eagles defense, that’s one area where I’m less afraid. Most people would say that Asante Samuel is the Eagles’ best corner, but really it’s Sheldon Brown, one of the most underrated corners in the league. Sheldon doesn’t get a ton of picks, but he also allowed his only touchdown also season in the NFC Championship last year, against Larry Fitzgerald. Brown is really the only DB that should give Brees a lot of trouble. Samuel is deadly as a freelancer, but against a team with unpredictable passing concepts, great pass protection, and a very deadly deep ball, the Eagles could be in trouble if Samuel’s penchant for guessing goes awry. Brian Dawkins was a loss, but he’d always been an Atwater-esque pseudo-linebacker anyways, and hadn’t done much in pass coverage the last few years. Quintin Mikell is an underrated strong safety, and fits Jim Johnson’s unpredictable-blitz scheme very well, but I like the idea of our wideouts (specifically Meachem or Moore) matching up with him.

Their linebacking corps could cause serious problems to our run game, but Reggie should have an excellent day receiving against them or whatever safety is supposed to cover him. Shockey/Miller should also have a very nice day—the Eagles’ linebackers just don’t cover that well unless they’re benefiting from a quarterback’s confusion, and Brees almost certainly won’t get pressured that badly. Meanwhile their D-line, outside of Trent Cole, doesn’t really generate that much pressure by its lonesome; Darren Howard led the team in sacks with 10, but had 1 the previous year despite the same amount of playing time—I’m just fine with our o-line dealing with their d-line.

All in all, I expect that we’re going to avoid a blowout purely because of our offense; we match up extremely nicely against their defense, and should do quite well even if we can’t run. Their offense, on the other hand, is probably going to rip our D a new one unless Gregggggg guesses right every time on his blitzes. If we hold them to fewer than three touchdowns, this will be a tremendous day for our defense, and if we win in decisive fashion (which I don’t think we will) this will be our statement game showing that we won’t lie down against the big bad NFC East.

Saints 38 – Eagles 35