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2009 Schedule Preview: Week 8 and 14 vs. Atlanta Falcons

In case you thought I'd forgotten about our schedule preview series...think again. There just hasn't been enough time to fit one in with so much other action going on in training camp. But when I start something, I finish it. Usually. So here we go again with another preview of a 2009 Saints opponent and this time we're talkin' bout the dirty birds. Instead of putting together a scouting report myself, I've decided to bring in a special guest and the foremost authority on the subject, fellow Falcons blogger Dave the Falconer [cue bird screech] of The Falcoholic. It's been so long since DTF has stopped by and I know you all crush on him hardcore. Here is what he had to say about everyones least favorite team. 


Falcons Offense

Just like nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition, nobody saw the Falcons' offense taking off quite like it did in 2008. 

With Matt Ryan providing a calm hand to guide the ship and Michael Turner chewing up yardage like the second coming of Pacman, the Falcons went from being a solid offense in 2007 to a force of nature the next year. WR Roddy White deserves a big chunk of the credit for the turnaround, as he provided the young QB a steady target. Stalwart blocker and decent receiver Michael Jenkins and dynamic slot receiver Harry Douglas rounded out an offense that got a lot done despite lacking a true tight end.

In 2009, all those pieces will return, plus future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez at tight end. He'll provide a security blanket for Ryan, whose numbers will likely be boosted with a true second option in the passing game. The Falcons have promised to cut Turner's carries, but that should mean more touches for home run hitter Jerious Norwood and whoever sits below him on the depth chart. With a healthy, tough offensive line that gained a future run-blocking stud right tackle in Garrett Reynolds, this offense should be considered Top 10. 

For the Saints, it's going to take very tough defense to stop a balanced attack like the Falcons'. Stopping Michael Turner was a huge piece of any team's gameplan last year, but in 2009 White and Gonzo will give Ryan a much better chance of weathering the storm when he's asked to air it out. Rattling Ryan would go a long way if the Saints can muster up a pass rush capable of doing so, but the key here is disruption.     

 

Falcons Defense

The Falcons tuned up a lackluster defense with a strong draft, but the D will still be a giant question mark in 2009.


The key additions are DT Peria Jerry, a pass-rushing defensive tackle with great strength who ought to immediately upgrade the wince-worthy attack the front seven brought last year. Joining him are veterans John Abraham, a veritable sacking automaton, and some combination of space-eating tackle Trey Lewis and versatile tackle Jonathan Babineaux. The true weakness here might be on Abraham's other side, where so-far-bustworthy Jamaal Anderson and solid end Chauncey Davis will compete for snaps. 

In the linebacking corps, emerging second year man Curtis Lofton will be flanked by veteran Mike Peterson, who is re-uniting with Mike Smith. He and Jamie Winborn, the potential other starter, are both sure tacklers who don't offer a ton of big play potential. The hope here in Atlanta is that Stephen Nicholas, who has a motor and good instincts, can seize the job from Winborn and prove a disruptive force.

The secondary remains a work in progress. Beyond Chris Houston at CB and Erik Coleman at FS, this team is just throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks. Rookie William "C4" Moore is a huge hitter who will do wonders against the run if he gets the nod at strong safety, and he may prove to be a stabilizing force in the secondary. The second corner competition is up for grabs among Chevis Jackson (arguably the team's second best cover corner), Brent Grimes (a freakish athlete), Von Hutchins (a land barton and veteran corner), and rookies Chris Owens and William Middleton. It's a very young defense overall, and the real question is whether or not it can gel.

Against a potent offense like the Saints', the Falcons are going to have some trouble. I think that's inevitable. This is a deeper defense with more youth than last year, so there is a better chance that they'll be able to muster a game-changing big play or two. When you compare these two teams, though, it's pretty obvious that there's two strong offense and two average defense going up against one another. In 2009, that should be good for a couple of coronary-inducing shootouts, I would say.    

Star-divide

Falcons 2008 Season

11-5 Record

 

Last Meeting

December 7th, 2008

Week 14 1 2 3 4 OT F
Falcons 0 14 3 8 -- 25
Saints 7 9 0 13 -- 29

 

 



Why the Saints Can Win

I don't like the Falcons. 

 

Why the Saints Can Lose

Because the Falcons are actually pretty good now. 

 

Prediction

Split. Atlanta wins one and New Orleans wins one. 

 

Newly Acquired

TE Tony Gonzalez

C Brett Romberg

LB Mike Peterson

OLB Jamie Winborn

OL Adam Speer

 

2009 Draft Class

DT Peria Jerry

SS William Moore

CB Christopher Owens

DE Lawrence Sidbury

CB William Middleton

OT Garrett Reynolds

OLB Spencer Adkins

DT Vance Walker   

 

Key Losses

QB Michael Vick

WR Laurent Robinson

OT Wayne Gandy

C Jeremy Newberry

C Alex Stepanovich

DE/DT Simon Fraser

DT Grady Jackson

DT Rod Coleman

OLB Michael Boley

OLB Keith Brooking

CB Domonique Foxworth

CB David Irons

SS Lawyer Milloy    

OL Jeremy Newberry

 

Linkage

The Falcoholic

SB Nation Falcons Coverage

Falcons @ Saints Game Coverage

Saints @ Falcons Game Coverage

Atlanta Falcons Roster

Atlanta Falcons Transactions

Comment 21 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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We don’t man-crush on DTF, but it’s obvious he does on Ryan. I just can’t wait for Ryan to play some real teams this year — forex the AFC East instead of the HS teams of the AFC West. If he’s actually right, Ryan will kick some butt. I don’t think he will.

by FriarBob on Aug 6, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions  

Deny it all you want

I sense the love every time I come over here.

Also, on the Ryan subject, I’d just like to note that in two games against New Orleans last year, he had a 70% percent completion rate, 560 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT for an aggregate QB rating pretty darn close to 100. He’s probably going to have some growing pains this year, but I think if you’re expecting him to turn into a mediocre QB you’re going to be disappointed.

Feel free to brag if I’m wrong, though.

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by Dave Choate on Aug 7, 2009 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

What's this stuff about splitting with the Falcons?

Dave, I assume that’s your prediction, noit his. And, I think you presented another great contribution there. But…..
I have to add this…….
The Falcons have a good team, but 1) not better than ours (on either side of the ball) 2) no one will look past them this year 3) they will be scouted much more thoroughly because much more film on Ryan and Turner and time to evgeluate 4) – so by week 8 they will be way more beat up then week 8 last year 5) Did Pittsburgh last year or New England 2007, Giants 2007, Eagles last year talk about splitting?? Do you think Dallas is talking about splitting with Washington? Give credit where credit is due …Atlanta has a decent team. But don’t talk about losing to them, don’t talk about losing to anyone this year. We know we probably will lose some this year, but let’s not predict it. We are capable of beating ANYBODY, bar none, on any given Sunday and Atlanta is not at the top of the NFL list.
PS They lost a lot if important talent this year

by Philinwood on Aug 6, 2009 2:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Gosh

That sure makes the week-by-week season preview a whole lot easier. Our opponents will all digress, while we improve. 16-0!!!!! Next irrelevant topic, Dave.

by coldpizza on Aug 6, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

If the Saints

figure out how to hold Turner to around 100 yards, I think these games will be ours. I seriously doubt Ryan will be able to keep his offense in the game if his running backs only perform well, not spectacularly.

by FuSoYa on Aug 6, 2009 2:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Falcons WRs not as solid as advertised

You can add Harry Douglas to the Falcons list of ‘key loses’ He’s out for the season w/ a bad knee injury. And with White not showing up to camp, chemestry might not be there for the recieving corp. I agree splitting the series is the likely outcome, but we’ve a better cahnce to sweep them than they do to us.

60% split
30% we sweep
10% they sweep

by saintsdevotee on Aug 6, 2009 2:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Yeah, we're weaker receiving now

It’s unfortunate that we lost a talented young guy, but we signed Marty Booker! Surely he’ll lead us to the promised land…

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by Dave Choate on Aug 7, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

it was good...for a dirty bird lover

Let’s talk about why we can win first. 1) #1 offense in the league w/ Reggie taking stuff up the middle well against our D in training camp and PT showing he was a better RB than he gets credit for last year. 2) White is the only capable WR and Gonzalez is a TE so he won’t be a passing option all the time. He does have to block sometime. 3) our D didn’t have a RB w/ 100+yards untill LT in london, which was week 10(i think) and that includes AP. 4) Sorta goes with #2. We have Porter or Greer covering White with the safety keeping an eye on him too probably. Plus, we can play Jenkins on Gonzalez, which is better than a LB covering him. 5) Our defenses have been improved as far as players but we got a new DC and i haven’t heard anything about the Falcons changing theirs. I’ll stop there.
Why we can lose: 1) GW isn’t who we thought he was. 2) Payton goes crazy w/ trick plays.
So, I will say the odds are:
55% we sweep
25% we split
20% they sweep
i’m a little biased but i try to be realistic :D although i have chosen us to win every game so far in these.

Superbowl bound!!!...I hope? Go Saints! :D

by skinnykinney on Aug 6, 2009 4:32 PM CDT reply actions  

The Falcons' offense

is legitimately frightening. The Gonzalez trade was probably the best move of any team in the offseason, taking a good offense to terrifying heights. The addition of Gonzalez will allow White to run deeper routes, shedding the chains-moving role that he’s traditionally occupied. Jenkins isn’t exactly terrifying, but is a legitimate third option for Ryan. In toto, the Gonzalez trade means that Ryan will helm an offense far more potent than the average power-run team. Normally an offense of that nature relies extremely heavily on the play-action to threaten deep downfield, legitimated by its run game (see Aikman-era Cowboys, Delhomme-era Panthers). Gonzalez adds a dimension to the passing game that is really, if Ryan can run it correctly, indefensible—the personnel (and reps) a team requires to defend against Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Jerious Norwood are not the same personnel that can defend against Michael Turner.

Speaking of Turner, he’s an obvious candidate to fulfill the curse of 370, and is rendered even more likely to go down with injury due to the drastic increase in workload for him—376 carries from a previous high of 80. Norwood, of course, should be a no-brainer as a change-of-pace runner and a receiving threat. He still has yet to eclipse over 9 offensive touches a game for his career, however, and by this point there has to be some question of either fragility or a problem grasping the offense. I’m a staunch advocate of the “replaceable running back” theory, and a thoroughly unimpressive runner like Turner would, in theory, not be a huge loss to a very complete offense. However, even if the passing game continues to open up, it will nevertheless require someone to hold down a workload like last year, and if Turner isn’t available, the dirty birds are SOL.

And the defense? Couldn’t be less afraid. There is approximately one competent pass defender on that squad, even worse than last year now that they’re bereft of Domonique Foxworth, who regularly hounded the Saints. They’ll need John Abraham to generate insane pressure to function as a pass D, and asking a rusher on the wrong side of thirty to replicate or better his best season ever is a bit much. Peria Jerry will have to produce immediately as a pass rusher, and, as he’ll be 25 as a starting rookie, physically he’s already at full maturity. If Jerry doesn’t plow through the doughy interior of NFC South o-lines immediately, go into full panic attack mode, Falcons fans. The run D should be good, but that shouldn’t worry you too much as a Saints fan—any run D looks good against our feeble zone blocks.

I say we sweep them—their biggest weakness (pass D) will be matched up against our greatest strength. I’m confident in Vilma’s ability to limit the damage Gonzalez can do to us, and I think our LBs on the whole can deal with Turner and Norwood. If Gregggg doubles White and Vilma holds it down against Gonzalez, we should stay above water. It sounds simplistic, but the idea isn’t to shut their offense down, it’s just to not let it catch up with ours. We probably aren’t holding them below three touchdowns each game, but they also probably aren’t holding us below four.

"They held somebody, but they sure didn't hold LaRon Landry."

by Walter FTW on Aug 6, 2009 5:38 PM CDT reply actions   2 recs

yeah

I keep telling him he needs to contribute some front page stuff

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by Dave Cariello on Aug 6, 2009 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sorry, but I have to disagree

Michael Turner is a good runner, but he’s not really elite…he just feasted on Lions and Rams last year and came away with ridiculous stats. He can be stopped…and if he’s stopped, all the Falcons have is an above average but hardly great quarterback, a single deep threat who isn’t even in camp yet, and Tony Gonzalez. Hardly indefensible.

Also: your analysis of Williams’ likely gameplan against Atlanta sounds more like Gary Gibbs’. “…the idea isn’t to shut their offense down”? Gregg’s idea is exactly to shut them down, kick their asses, make them beg for mercy. Playing back and simply trying to slow them down is for sissies.

"Man, these fans are off the charts."
--Drew Brees

by MtnExile on Aug 6, 2009 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

First,

thanks FuSoYa and Dave.

Second, I didn’t say Turner was elite, quite the opposite—he’s pretty unimpressive, he just handles a crazy workload. As for the rest of the Falcons’ offense, I think that being able to defend a power back, a downfield threat who can run an option route against a zone-blitz as well as anyone in the division, and a hall of fame tight end will be difficult. Admittedly, I may be giving Ryan too much credit, but despite his lack of stats he did show an extremely impressive awareness of blitzes in most situations, and now has the perfect target to dish the ball to if he’s blitzed.

Which leads me to Gregg’s gameplan: there appears to be a general misconception here that he’ll blitz like crazy because he’s Gregg and that’s what he does. In Jacksonville, however, he didn’t blitz much at all because he didn’t think he had the personnel to effectively capitalize on blitzes or the offense to back him up. In NOLA he’ll have the latter, but who knows about the former? And if he’s dealing with a quick-release offense like the Falcons’, which also features a running game that will punish you if you guess wrong on a blitz, is he guaranteed to blitz then? I think that if Ryan catches on early in the game, Gregg’ll tighten the reins a little. Obviously the idea is that Ryan won’t, and that our blitzes will be unpredictable, but their offense has enough options that Gregg won’t blitz with impunity. He probably won’t go straight Cover-1 every play like Gibbs and be utterly shocked when that gets eaten alive, but he also probably won’t be Dick LeBeau circa 2005.

"They held somebody, but they sure didn't hold LaRon Landry."

by Walter FTW on Aug 6, 2009 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well… I might agree… except for just how good an idea the run-blitz can be as well. So while I actually agree you won’t see constant blitzing from him I think your reasons for it are off-base.

by FriarBob on Aug 7, 2009 12:36 AM CDT up reply actions  

You've got as good or better a chance to sweep us than anyone else

After that tortured title, I’m sure you’re interested to hear my reasons, but they’re simple. You match up well against us as a team with a (hopefully) competent defense and a dynamic offense. I’m going to have nightmares of PT running us over all season long.

At the same time, I think you may be overstating how simple it is to shut down White and particularly Gonzalez. These games are going to be shootouts.

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by Dave Choate on Aug 7, 2009 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions  

I dont atl will be good

reason being teams like Atl take off because opposing teams really have no footage to work with on Rookie QBs, nor footage to work with on Turner either.

You see teams with new QBs excel one season, fall the next. Atl and Baltimore will 2 of the teams thats going to fall to mediocrity this season.

Atl = 9-7 at best
they may not even win 9.

by Vrillon on Aug 7, 2009 2:14 AM CDT reply actions  

Did teams not have footage

on Peyton Manning, when he threw for more INTs than TDs as a rookie? For the only time in his career, I might add. What about when Troy Aikman threw TWICE as many in his season and went as a starter? Drew Brees didn’t even start a SINGLE GAME his rookie season. I guess the old Polaroid cameras caught a lot more than today’s overrated technology. Seriously, rookie QBs having a season ANYWHERE CLOSE to the one Matt Ryan just did are ridiculously few and far beween. If that could contributed to a “lack of film” or anything of the sort, there wouldn’t exist the disparity in performances. Might his success been a fluke based on a weak matchups? Yes, it may very well could have. Keep in mind however, the Saints played roughly the same schedule, merely split with the Falcons and wound up a full three games behind them in the final NFC South standings. Be it Ryan, the existence of a formidable running game (i.e., offensive balance), what have you, Atlanta was doing something right. Or at the very least, something we weren’t, in order to finish 11-5. Until I see Ryan fall flat on his face, I’m going to consider him the real deal. That being said, we certainly have enough offensive firepower to match them tit-for-tat. If the defense steps up, it’ll make the task that much easier. As of RIGHT NOW though, I’d have to consider that a much bigger question mark than the play of Matt Ryan. Just shooting straight.

by coldpizza on Aug 7, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Aikman went 0-11, which I KNOW I typed, but the post omitted it. This site has some weird glitches.

by coldpizza on Aug 7, 2009 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

The saints and falcons are

very similar teams. Both have potent offenses and questionable defenses. I’m just glad our defense gets 7 games to get their sh!t together before we have to defend that saints offense!! I think these two games will be some of the most exciting games of the season for both teams and I beleive that these games will be SHOOTOUTS!! I think we will split the series with each team winning at home and losing on the road, with the scores something like 38-35, and 44-41. These two teams always play each other tough and that trend will continue this season as well. Look for both teams to be competing for the NFC south division title, probably just between these two teams, I don’t think Carolina will be in the hunt after about week 9, and TB will be out after week 1!!! lol
Good luck to you saints fans and your team, I hope you guys have a good season, just not as good as ours!!
Atl – 10-6
NO – 9-7
Car.- 7-9
TB – 5-11

 I think whichever team wins the division, the other team will still get into the playoffs as a wildcard, so in short, both the saints and falcons will make the playoffs this season.

25% – sweep by either team
75% – split the two games

GO FALCONS!!!!
 L-DAWG

by ATLsince1972 on Aug 9, 2009 8:39 AM CDT reply actions  

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