New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills: What to Watch
by Dave Cariello on Sep 26, 2009 1:00 PM CDT
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PrintOnly one day away now from the Saints next trial in their quest for perfection. We've already talked a good bit about what we can expect to see during the game but I wanted to try and wrap it all together. Here's a final look at the Saints @ Bills. Everything is up for discussion and/or polite argument.
Drew Brees vs. Buffalo's Secondary
What do you get when the leagues best offense and second best passing attack face off against it's statistically penultimate secondary? This Sunday's game between the Saints and Bills. While it might not be the most accurate stat, the Bills are ranked second-to-last in stopping the pass so far this season; a seeming match made in heaven for Brees and the Saints. Assuming the weather holds up, look for Brees to continue his surgical precision in defense carving.
Let's not also forget about the Saints offensive line who will play a huge part in this matchup. Getting to Brees quickly and attempting to throw off his timing, if not throwing him into the ground, will certainly be part of Buffalo's game plan. With the Bills improved depth at defensive end this season, the job will be that much more difficult for tackles Jon Stinchcomb,Jermon Bushrod and Zach Strief. It will be pertinent that they have a good game and keep the dirt off of Drew's jersey.
Jabari Greer vs. Terrell Owens/Lee Evans
Jabari Greer returns to Western New York for the first time since being signed by the Saints this off-season. Greer left for greener pastures when the Bills weren't willing to fork up enough dough to keep him happy and in Buffalo. Though the terms of the split were friendly, one teams trash is another teams treasure. He could prove to be a valuable commodity during the contest this weekend when he matches up against the Bills two top receivers, Terrell Owens and Lee Evans, the latter of whom he faced every day during practice and whose tendencies he should be familiar with. Assuming the Bills still run a similar offense this season, Greer's past knowledge of the Bills should give him an advantage..
The Saints vs. The Weather
The forecast still calls for a chance of rain in Orchard Park this Sunday. Not good for the Saints, who play at least ten games a year under a roof and aren't completely equipped to deal with the elements. First and foremost, rainy weather is less than ideal for quarterbacks. A slippery ball can make even a great signal caller the likes of Drew Brees look more like Aaron Brooks on a clear day. In addition to the headaches and mistakes that wet weather can cause, it also lends itself to the run offense, which naturally plays away from the Saints strength in passing the ball with precision. If Brees is forced to throw the ball less and hand it off more, it could be a game equalizer.
Players to Watch
Lynell Hamilton - With Mike Bell listed as out, the word on the street is that Hamilton has been taking most of the reps with the first team this week and expects a big load against the Bills. That also means Pierre Thomas probably won't see much action. It would be quite a pleasant surprise if Hamilton could step up the way Mike Bell has done so far this season. Talk about depth. That is what all championship teams have.
The boys are back in town - Gregg Williams, Jabari Greer and Anthony Hargrove are all making their triumphant return to play the team they used to work for. No doubt that creates added motivation. A victory against the Bills would be extra sweet for these three.
Remi Ayodele - Kendrick Clancy is officially listed as out for this weekends game meaning Remi Ayodele should get the start in his place. Ayodele looks to build and improve this week on the decent job he did filling against the Eagles last week. Expect Hargrove to also move inside to help out a little.
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One other important thing to watch
I think the Bills no-huddle offense is going to severely limit GW’s penchant for rotations. That combined with a heavy dose of Fred Jackson will have the Saints defense, especially the line, very tired by the 4th quarter. The two keys to preventing that are, obviously, long drives by the Saints, and as many 3-and-outs as the Saints D can muster in the first half. If the Saints can establish a big lead going into the second half, the Bills will be forced to throw it downfield more, and hopefully commit more mistakes.
One other thing to remember about the no-huddle
It forces both teams to play with their base packages. That means it’s easier for a defense to prepare for, since they only have to worry about, for instance, a two-receiver/two-back set. If the offense begins to rotate in personnel, that destroys the entire purpose of a no-huddle—since under modern rules, whenever the offense makes a substitution, the defense gets to make one as well.
The no-huddle is really successful only when a team is supremely talented, as Buffalo was under Jim Kelly. The Bills under Trent Edwards have nowhere near that talent level, and the Saints should be able to handle them.
Super Bowl 44: "If you play in this league and it's not your goal, there's something wrong with you." -- Marques Colston
That's partly true
You’re right that the offense is limited as well, but depending on their personnel, it can create really bad match-ups. If the offense has a great receiving RB like Jackson, the defense is left having to choose between a DB and LB to put on him. Depending on what package the D goes with, the O can take advantage with play calling: LB → passing play in space; DB → running up the middle.
I disagree that the offense needs exceptional talent. They just need to have exceptional execution on the set of plays installed for whatever package they put on the field.
I think the biggest problem for the Bills running a no-huddle against the Saints is their O-line. The two young guards are apparently very good, but they have some weakness at tackle, especially with Butler out. That’s why I predicted Grant and Smith to each get a sack tomorrow in the prediction post. :)
The reason an offense needs exceptional talent to make the no-huddle work
Take the two-receiver, two-back set I used as an example above. If you want to use any play calling for a three wide-out formation, that third receiver is probably going to be your running back. He’d better be an exceptionally good receiver, not only catching swings and screens but running patterns downfield as well. And that leaves your fullback alone in the backfield. He’d better be exceptionally good not only at blocking, but also at running draws and catching screens, because now you’ve committed to using your running back as a receiver. Similarly, your wide receivers had better be good blockers—you won’t be running any two tight end formations, unless you want to violate the whole purpose of no-huddle by making an offensive substitution. And so forth, and so on.
Of course, if you use some other base package, those athletes will have to be adaptable in order to run different formations, too. For instance, you can use a two-tight end base package…if you have a Tony Gonzalez or an Antonio Gates, for instance, because they’re good enough to function as wideouts as well. But if your tight ends are Derek Fine and Shawn Nelson…well, then it’s a bit problematical.
Or, you have to run all of your plays from one formation…and I don’t think I’ve seen that since the days of the “student body left” and “student body right.”
Super Bowl 44: "If you play in this league and it's not your goal, there's something wrong with you." -- Marques Colston
One other thing to remember about the no-huddle
It forces both teams to play with their base packages
Yeah Thats exactly why the Bills no-huddle is showing to be effective: VERSATILITY in the base package. We have many players that can play many different roles in our no-huddle. Such as Nelson (who is now listed as probable) who can play blocking TE, receiving TE, and more importantly, 6’7" is more dangerous in the slot then on the line. And Fred Jackson has just as much offencive versatility as Reggie Bush, although he is not quite as fast. Add the fact that Roscoe Parrish has a surprising throwing arm for a WR and we can seamlessly switch from a base offence, to a 3 wide to the Wildcat, all while staying in the no-huddle, and never having to change the players that are on the feild.
Basicly this is just to say that our “base” package on our O is increadibly versatile and tough for any D to handle.
Mind you the fact that Drew Brees can thorw 5TD’s on any given day is also quite scary. Either way it should be a fun offensive contest to watch.
Go Bills!
Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 27, 2009 4:25 AM CDT up reply actions
for instance, a two-receiver/two-back set.
Oh and we generally don’t use that set. We have a FB on our active roster, but he is much more used on special teams (good lead blocker on returns) then he is in the offense. He’ll be lucky to see 10 offensive snaps all game long.
So basicly your left with having to face 3 WR"s (TO, Evans and Reed/Parrish), a TE (Nelson, Fine or Stupar) and a RB that can catch and even line up in the slot in Fred Jackson. I think your underestimating us a bit.
Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 27, 2009 4:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Ain’t that always the way?
Super Bowl 44: "If you play in this league and it's not your goal, there's something wrong with you." -- Marques Colston
It’s nothing that I should hold against a fan thats confident in his team. In fact you could probably accuse me of the same thing when it comes to judging your D.
Captain of the "Promote Bob Sanders to Deffensive Coordinator" band wagon.
by CanadianBillsFan on Sep 27, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions
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