Just How Good is the Vikings Defense on the Road? Graphs and Stats Say... Meh.
by Joseph William Stern on Jan 22, 2010 2:39 PM CST
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PrintWe've all been hearing ad nauseum about how good the Viking defense is. We've heard the forecasts of doom and gloom. All this talk about their defense got me thinking. Were there any factors that present a problem for their defense? Would these factors present a clear statistical shift in defensive performance compared to other games? I found that the answer is a definitive "Yes."
That factor is, as so many real estate agents could tell you, "Location, Location, Location." Let's take a look at the statistics.
The Vikings have played eight road games this season, out of those they have lost four and won four. Of those four wins, only one was against a team with a winning record, Green Bay (11-5). The rest of their road wins came against teams (CLE, DET, STL) with a combined record of (8-40). With Green Bay thrown in, the combined record of opponents faced on the road in games that the Vikings won is (19-45) which comes out to a winning percentage of (.296).
Their four road losses have come against Pittsburgh (9-7), Arizona (10-6), Carolina (8-8) and Chicago (7-9). These teams combine for a record of (34-30) which is equal to a winning percentage of (.531).
Overall on the road, they have given up an average of 27.25 points per game and 337.25 yards per game. When we compare this to their season total of 19.5 points per game and 305 yards per game, and the home totals of 15.5 points per game.
Against teams with a record of .500 or better on the road they have allowed 26.5 points per game and 351.25 yards per game.
In total (and this is a weird stat, but follow me on this one) you can expect to score 4.63 points for every regular season win your team has.
And this is where it gets really interesting:
Of their last four road games the Vikings have won only once and lost three times. In those games they surrendered 29.5 points per game and 377.25 yards per game.
So what does this mean for the Saints? Well, given that we have thirteen regular season wins to our credit, we can expect to score 60.19 points Sunday. Here's hoping you've got your crunkin' shoes on.
via web8.twitpic.com
via web8.twitpic.com
This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.
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Gotta admit, I wouldn't have been satisfied with myself if I didn't make a front page with this!
Much appreciated.
Brees gonna throw down the Saints... Wide open Devery Henderson! Nobody's within twenty yards of him! He could do the backstroke into the end zone from there! And he'll take it in for a seventy-five yard touchdown strike!
by Joseph William Stern on Jan 22, 2010 2:58 PM CST up reply actions
I'd rec this a million times if I could.
Great work.
"HOT BOUDIN! COOOOOLD COUS COUS, COME ON TIGAHS, PUSH PUSH PUSH!"
JWS how does thier offense do on the road?
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 22, 2010 3:09 PM CST reply actions
Yikes. I'd have to look at that tomorrow. My brain hurts.
Brees gonna throw down the Saints... Wide open Devery Henderson! Nobody's within twenty yards of him! He could do the backstroke into the end zone from there! And he'll take it in for a seventy-five yard touchdown strike!
by Joseph William Stern on Jan 22, 2010 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
Boom rec'd it
For the textures on the pie chart paint alone. Nice presentation.
No, I do not feel that good
When I see the heartbreaks you embrace.
yeah
I noticed that. how did you do that?
Wanna say something? Sign up! It's free!
by Dave Cariello on Jan 22, 2010 3:29 PM CST up reply actions
Mac Keynote
It’s their version of powerpoint. It was default texture, I just manipulated colors and values.
Brees gonna throw down the Saints... Wide open Devery Henderson! Nobody's within twenty yards of him! He could do the backstroke into the end zone from there! And he'll take it in for a seventy-five yard touchdown strike!
by Joseph William Stern on Jan 22, 2010 3:38 PM CST up reply actions
I thought of that too.
But it also turns out that the road games on turf we against really poor teams, and it would thus be impossible to get a breakdown of the defensive performance relative to surface and away/home status. One variable at a time, here.
Brees gonna throw down the Saints... Wide open Devery Henderson! Nobody's within twenty yards of him! He could do the backstroke into the end zone from there! And he'll take it in for a seventy-five yard touchdown strike!
by Joseph William Stern on Jan 22, 2010 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
y'all are smoking grass with Harvin
I’m so tired of every viking fan clinging to the grass excuse. Do you know how lame that sounds?
Is that the best defense y’all can come up with? Isn’t the game of football designed to be played on grass? Maybe favra doesn’t like to get his wranglers dirty and he just goes all to pieces at the thought of a grass stain.
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 22, 2010 4:02 PM CST up reply actions
i mean it may look lame but its true
We’re 10 – 0 in domes and we lost all four of our games on grass.
by vikesfan4lyf on Jan 22, 2010 6:04 PM CST up reply actions
you better hope you don't make it to the big game, then!
"HOT BOUDIN! COOOOOLD COUS COUS, COME ON TIGAHS, PUSH PUSH PUSH!"
Here's a stat that's as lame as the grass theory.
All of your road losses came on dates that ended in an even number. All of your road wins came on a date that ended with an odd number except for Detroit (so that one should be thrown out of the equation). We’re playing on the 24th.
If you put a lot of faith in obscure stats, this should make you pretty nervous.
The grass theory really doesn’t hold up when you consider that 3 of you 4 road wins were against Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis. Much more accurate to say the Vikings only beat one good team on the road all year; against Green Bay and that was also on grass..
AND WE AREN'T WEARING BLACK PANTS SO HAH!
we’re all a little absurd sometimes.
"HOT BOUDIN! COOOOOLD COUS COUS, COME ON TIGAHS, PUSH PUSH PUSH!"
Blazing Saddles
good one.
You can't fix stupid - Ron White
by SBookerSaintsFan on Jan 22, 2010 7:12 PM CST up reply actions
Is this blog sponsored by Warner Brothers???
(No, not Kurt, you idiot!)
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers.
by Just 'Nother Day on Jan 22, 2010 7:42 PM CST up reply actions
Meaning that y'all were smoking grass????
“Hey, commissioner…………………”
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers.
by Just 'Nother Day on Jan 22, 2010 7:40 PM CST up reply actions
Where'd you play the Cards?
"I do know that we have some unfinished business that we started a few years ago and we want to finish the deal."- Dulymus McAllister
You forget Arizona way too quickly.
I’ll grant you that Pitt was on Grass, but Heinz Field was still in good shape at that point in time. Oh and Cleveland is grass too, and you didn’t have any problems there. And it wasn’t like the weather or the field was a problem in Carolina, it was just that you stunk up the joint.
its like i said on the norseman site about the shoddy carolina grass
I guess stewart didn’t get the memo. he ran all over the vikes D. His traction looked fine to me.
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 22, 2010 8:29 PM CST up reply actions
Harvin suffering w/ Migranes this season
again this week and kept him out of practice…
You think you know, and you don't know, and you never, ever will.-Jim Mora Sr.
Ah ha! The "grass" gambit again comes into play!
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers.
by Just 'Nother Day on Jan 22, 2010 7:42 PM CST up reply actions
I don't git it. We smoking it,mowing it or playing on it? Or what?
by saints-fan-in-miss on Jan 22, 2010 8:27 PM CST up reply actions
Ahhhhh . . . yes?
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers.
by Just 'Nother Day on Jan 22, 2010 8:39 PM CST up reply actions
yeah, it's a special hybrid blend
I call it Kentucky Bluegrass. You can play 9 holes on it and then come home and get stoned to the BEJEEZUS.
Why not us? Why not Deuce?
by Hans Petersen on Jan 23, 2010 9:12 AM CST up reply actions
Yah! If you make your whole lawn out of it, it's less suspicious.
Or, at least you’ve got so much you no longer care….about being busted, whether it’s day or night, whether an asteroid is going to ruin your day (or the Saints). Hey, Vikes, you might want to get some.
WHODAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dynasty - 2009 - ????
Great post!
I think pretty much the same thing when I hear Brian Billick, Herm Edwards, and all those other self-important douchebags go on and on about the Vikings D. Sure, they’re one of the best in the league this year, but they’re not indestructible. I mean it’s not like they’re Paris Hilton’s vagina or anything.
"I said this early on that this was a good football team, they just maybe had to have a stick put in certain parts of their body to play a little harder in certain places to where we’re able to take interceptions and score touchdowns."--Gregg Williams
by David "Satch" Kelly on Jan 22, 2010 9:06 PM CST reply actions
Hey, that comment smells a little fishey to me.
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers.
by Just 'Nother Day on Jan 22, 2010 9:08 PM CST up reply actions
We feel the same way about the Saints offense
and the Cowboys #2 ranked offense as well.
Great Stat
I used it for my team’s offense versus the Saints defense, and according to that logic, you can expect to score 5.683 points for every regular season win you have against the Saints which adds up to 68.2
So looks like we win 68 to 60.
I'm sorry . . .
New Orleans Logic only works for New Orleanians and displaced Saints fans.
Your stat is skewed, because your team wears purple, Brett Favre is actually an alien robot that runs on geritol and Wranglers, and all Minnesotan brains are half the size of a Louisianan’s. It’s science.
"The key to them winning is to limit their quarterback to under 20 throws a game." -Cris Carter
YEA, i really dont buy into this lets pull out useless stats to make ourselves feel better garbage, anything can happen in football
VIKINGS are better, but like i said anything can happen, this is the vikings game to lose. wanna pull out some useless stats. vikings are 3-0 vs the saints in the playoffs, vikings beat saints last in the superdome without brett favre. see i can go on and on. this defense went to pittsburg and only let the steeler offense 10 points OUTSIDE in the COLD. the offense has been rolling all year and did so in GREEN BAY outside in the COLD.
by Canadian_viking on Jan 24, 2010 2:59 AM CST reply actions
I guess we are the number one seed because you are the better team
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 24, 2010 6:59 AM CST up reply actions
You guys really like playing outside in the cold
So you are 3-0 against the Saints in the playoffs… well done
If you look at some of the upsets this year,steelers losing to the chiefs,browns and
raiders…. did the stats predict those results too? I bet the steelers were pretty
confident rolling into cleveland. This game is a lot more evenly matched and the
outcome will be determined by key plays at key times not on how your team performed
last year or any other time in the last 20.
Enjoy the game,but please, not the result.
Lets GEAUX SAINTS.......... ALL THE WAY!!!!
I bow to your greater wisdom
Didn`t research the facts – just responded to the previous post.
Lets GEAUX SAINTS.......... ALL THE WAY!!!!
Rare group, Chew.
CP, you just don’t mess with him and stats
JND, who ought to get paid for stand-up (he’s probably really Jay Leno or Letterman or someone in disguise).
GGM, who can make your…well, never mind. Just don’t mess with him.
VGG, sweetest thang this side of the pacific
And me, who can even screw up the world’s timezones permanently!!!
WHODAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dynasty - 2009 - ????
Just how good is the Vikings offense in dome stadiums? Graphs & stats make Saints fans poop their pants!
I dunno, Jangles...
…do we get to include the spanking the Vikes took in AZ….IN A DOME?
:-)
Enjoy Brent’s retirement party tonight!
Irony: An atheist Saints fan.
by GSO Saints Fan on Jan 24, 2010 7:39 AM CST up reply actions
An exclusive group!!
Think I got the time zone thing sorted now,good job JND didn`t get involved
what with his far eastern time and stand-up routines!
Lets GEAUX SAINTS.......... ALL THE WAY!!!!
Didn't someone say
stats are something you bring up or use to convince yourself of something that isn’t true? Or did I just make that up?? Stats are interesting, but I think a game like this boils down to….Who plays better, who wants it more and who has better support. Since the game is in OUR dome, and 95% of the support will be for us, (not to mention the rest of the country pulling for us), we win. I expect to Saints players doubled over in pain and exhaustion after this WIN! They will not leave one ounce of ability in themselves. It will all be on the field.
I'm a bit concerned that Brett Favre might get some favorable calls from the officials
That’s a big concern of mine.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
Not that it has anything to do with defense, but...
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
Grass! Grass my a--!
Snap, place, kick! And it's good! It's good! It's goo-hoo-hood! Pigs have flown! Hell Has frozen over! The Saints are going to the Superbowl!
by Joseph William Stern on Jan 25, 2010 5:58 PM CST reply actions
And what do you know, they gave up 31 points which fits in nicely as the next data point on that chart.
Snap, place, kick! And it's good! It's good! It's goo-hoo-hood! Pigs have flown! Hell Has frozen over! The Saints are going to the Superbowl!
by Joseph William Stern on Jan 26, 2010 4:18 PM CST reply actions
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