You guys have played the Cardinals twice since 2005 the same as the Colts. The 10pt difference in the wins is probably due to Rolle & Cromartie leaving the game with injuries as well as the absolute monster of a hit on Warner that knocked him out of the game for a series.

I could turn it around on you and say “Lets look at the Rams. We beat them by a total of 31 more points than you did” OF course I wouldn’t because like your NE argument that is just ridiculous.

The correct thing to do would be to use ALL of the common opponents and not just the ones you want. Look at ALLof our common opponents this year and compare the numbers. Both NO and the Colts played the Pats, Cardinals, Jets, Dolphins, Rams and Bills. The larger the sample the more accurate you’ll be.

a doubleplusungood duckspeaker.

Can I double-rec for the 1984 reference alone?

I don’t disagree with your running efficacy stat proving that your team’s running backs can generate two yards on a third-and-short with some decent regularity, but it doesn’t prove that the Indy running game is anything to worry about to me, either, any more than the Saint’s impressive turnover margin or defensive red zone efficiency does anything to concern you about being able to move down the field on them. To me, both the defensive stats that put a positive spin on the New Orleans defense and the rushing stats that put a positive spin on Indianapolis’ running game are just statistical peaks that describe, albeit vaguely, how these teams managed to win a lot of games. You don’t believe the Colts will give away the ball like Minnesota did, so you’re not all that worried about turnovers killing your team’s offensive momentum(I assume). I don’t think Addai or Brown can run freely on any down or distance, so I’m not concerned about the Indianapolis running threat. Either of us could be wrong, but statistics predict we’ll both be right. Your special statistic does predict that Indianapolis will be able to convert on third-and-2 using a running back, though, so I guess I hope we avoid those situations.

Like I said, FO’s stats are, for the most part, over my head, but it did seem, from trying to divine their meaning, that mediocre defenses gave up a larger number of points than good defenses, and that the higher-ranked offense scored substantially more than the lower-ranked. The outcomes of the various playoff games supported this statement. It was also basically the statement made by the original author, who, rather than applying the DVOA stats, simply averaged points-per-game for each team’s offense versus each team’s defense. I didn’t see anything on that FO page that disagreed with M-E’s assertion, though, like I said, I don’t fully understand FO’s methodology, and only blindly accept that they are “high-quality” statisticians.

Shonn Greene didn’t “break out” until the second half of the Wild Card game against Cincy. My assumption is that, had the Jets still had a running threat as good as Greene in the third and fourth quarters, he probably would have done better than Jones was able to. We’ll never know, and Indy did do a great job of stifling both of New York’s backs in the first half, at the expense of pass defense which allowed two touchdown drives. Of course, the rookie QB and average receiver group’s luck ran out late in the game, to go along with their wounded running game. It’s not really surprising they couldn’t produce any offense with all that against them.

I don’t know how you gamble, and I suspect there’s an entire world of sportsmen out there who know far more about it than I, but all the gamblers I know stare at statistical matchups and injury reports and gameday conditions and then, generally, play a handful of prescribed sure-things, and an upset or two. The bottom line for most of these bets is “hunches”, or educated guesses. I’ll give you that an educated guess could be considered both safe and unbiased, but most of the “hunches” I’ve heard from gamblers(myself included) originate from some biased belief about a team you either do or don’t care for, likely because of a handful of players or a coach involved. “McNabb is gonna choke against Washington’s zone defense”, or “CJ is gonna run through the Colts’ linebackers like a hot knife through butter”, for example. I don’t think most of these biases are personal(though many surely are), but there are unfounded expectations for every group in the league. The Colts are giving five and a half, despite being nearly a statistical mirror image of the Saints. My guess is that this has something to do with the facts that A) the Colts won a Super Bowl four years ago, and B) because nobody can imagine Manning having any kind of problem with the Saints’ pass defense. These expectations, while they may in fact be validated, are founded on nothing but hunches and expectations from previous games. Statistically, this game should be a pick’em, but it’s not. There’s just enough spread to make the question,“do you believe the Saints can keep it close, or will Indy just blow them out?” I would argue that the point spread itself is forcing you to bet on a bias, that being that a previous Super Bowl champ and a four-time MVP bring with them a points-advantage that is not supported by any statistics, except possibly previous SB outcomes(which I’m assuming here have no bearing on an “unbiased” look at the game).

Manning won the MVP because he had a great year, AND because he’s Peyton Manning. Brees had a better year than Manning statistically, and both of their teams ended up in identical places in the standings. And Brees’ better statistical year came with zero offensive skill-players around him who were invited to the Pro Bowl, before you tell me about how Manning made Garcon and Collie into household names. The only thing that won it for Manning is his beautiful Manning-ness. He won a popularity contest. He earned a place in the popularity contest finals with great play, but he won with his name. This is coming from a Saints fan, so pardon my favoritism.

Fun arguing.

in our FanShot section please

and i don’t think QBs are infallible, or that every interception is forced. i definitely should have phrased my argument differently, knowing you’d be so well-equipped when replying, but it’s 5-something am.

i still think porter had a lot of work to do, and that favre was 50/50 on making the throw. not that he should have attempted it.

what (to you) decides if an int it was forced or not? is it the other options available to the QB, or the sheer stupidity of his actual choice, or something else?

Except that “high highness” didn’t see the coverage.

Yes it was a forced turnover. Vilma helped force it by changing the coverage to zone when Favre was expecting man, and Tracy helped by playing just far enough off that Brett didn’t see him until it was too late.

CP, I really love your attitude, and you really try to be objective (a little too hard sometimes), but I’m gonna have to call you on ANOTHER statement now:

“I’m damn happy he didn’t flub that golden opportunity, like Greer did a series or two earlier. "

Er…you mean the one where Sidney Rice got away with blatant OPI? Y’know where Greer had the ball in his breadbasket, and Rice grabbed his right arm and yanked it so he couldn’t get his hand on the ball. That “flubbed opportunity”?

Man…you’re a real Debbie Downer sometimes, but the two things I’ve had to point out are just going too far, IMO.

Don’t stop being you though, because it makes me really think through everything when you do.

I just don’t want the defense to fall in love with it’s new reputation for being an “opprotunistic ball-hawking defense.” Let’s tackle with consistency and go from there, fellas.

You are of course totally within your rights to disagree with me, but the REASON he was “closing his handoff pocket” was because the ball wasn’t there when he expected it, and because he was looking at the southbound end of a northbound OT coming straight at him, thanks to Will Smith FORCING that OT backward.

The entire play was out of sync because of the pressure Smith applied – FAR-VUH was in the wrong place at the wrong time, Peterson wasn’t even paying attention to what FAR-VUH was doing. Forced fumble.

Just like we proved, if you focus on shutting down the Jets run game, and you make Sanchez throw, you can beat the Jets.

The fact that we confused the QB, got a few INTs, and pressure enough to strip sack and recover for a TD helped too. :-)

Unfortunately, when the Colts spent the resources to completely shut down their run game, the Jets had to start throwing… and the Colts D was good enough to shut that down too, eventually.

It’ll be a little different (understatement) vs. the Saints who have a pass game and multiple weapons @ WR, TE, RB@WR, RB-screen.

We’ll see how it turns out for ’em.

That means total yards punted.

ie. we only kicked 58 punts all regular season… third FEWEST in the league.

if we kick the fewest punts, it stands to reason that we’d have the fewest yards.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/punting/sort/punts/seasontype/2

I’ll lookup the rest, but that’s not a stat you want to be throwing around.

Check it: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/punting/sort/netAvgPuntYards/seasontype/2/order/false

but don’t claim some obscure mythical karma/destiny/fate crap. A football game is a football game, not a battle of religious concepts.

but “Karma” and “Destiny” won’t be playing a role in the outcome of the game on Sunday. The team that causes the least mistakes and executes the game plan properly will be the one to win.

take the time to form a rebuttal for this ignorant comment. I’ll leave it with this Karma = NOTHING.

Their pass rush will suffer and Brees will make every reporter ponder their choice of MVP.