FanPost

the situation at hand....

I was slightly curious after the falcons beat the buc's again what are the chance's of catching them and honestly its not looking good.....

So of those of you who are not completely aware the  division tie break rule goes as follows...

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

The list goes on but this is all that is important for where we are at and can't fall below this lvl...

So under the laws of 1 we just need to beat Atlanta and we have to move to 2.

If the saints win out and Atlanta only loss is to us(remember they play the Seahawks and Carolina twice) then we will have the same division record at 5-1 and will progress to 3. This is where it starts to get a lil discouraging. 

If the saints win out and Atlanta only loss is to us  the falcons still have us  by  the percentage of common games. Atlanta12-2(loss to pitt and NO) New Orleans 11-3(loss to Atl, Ari, and Cle). There loss to philly does not count in this category since only they played them.(we played DAL)....

So this means they have to lose a game to the hawks or the panthers for us to even have a chance catch them. Our scenarios to pass them for conf would be then..

--(NO win out) and (Atl lose 1 game  in addition to losing to NO)

--(NO beat Atl  & TB and then NO lose one of the other 2 games) and (Atl lose to panthers in either match-up)

It should be noted that if we lose one more game and the falcons lose to the hawks  and saints it will not improve our situation since it will fall to the 3rd criteria again and they will still have us edged by a game. its also interesting to point out that this week it would be better for both the saints and the falcons to lose for the saints then it would be for them to both win(assuming some other NFC contenders lose at least 1 as well).I of course realize the ideal would be for us to win and just they lose but it was a hypothetical comparison...

The bad news is that as much as I hate to say it i really don't see us taking the conf from Atlanta. After this week if Carolina has not pulled what would probably be considered the biggest upset of the year then i will have given up on saints being anything more then the 5 seed.The good news is that the saints our getting stronger healthier and better as the season goes on and while we might have  a set back before the playoffs I feel strongly we will win a wildcard. Guess what..... since 2000 three wild card teams have won the SB.So I say the saints can too!

WHO DAT!

This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.

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