Only a few more days!
by ArithMattic on Feb 5, 2010 11:01 AM CST
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During the past few days we've heard arguments from expert analysts (I know, I know, expert and analyst should never be placed beside each other in a sentence regarding any sporting event) as well as fans from both teams and the consensus is clear, one team has an undeniable advantage over the other.
Well, there's only a few days left before we find out whether it's luck or not! So, in the interest of making your position clear now before the game and separating the clear headed from the crow-eaters, tell me how you feel about it. Do you think the Saints will win the turnover battle with Indy, and if so, will it be by luck or just flat out skill and preparation?
This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.
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voted for option 3, but I think 21st (points allowed) even better 16th (points per drive allowed) are more accurate reflections
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
If any of you want to actually go read the article so that you can know what was ACTUALLY said instead of relying on this guy you is very very one sided then here is the link
http://www.stampedeblue.com/2010/2/5/1296668/colts-saints-the-big-play-and-the#comments
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
You're so vain
I bet you think this post is about you. It isn’t. It isn’t about the article you reference either. I didn’t even mention it in the slightest. The article you reference is a second hand rehashing of someone else’s analysis, meaning it is NOT the first nor the only article/post/blog/written opinion stating such views. Believe it or not, I do have the right to make my own observations about such views. I think they’re full of crap. I do have a right to say so.
Now, if you’d please, stop assuming that anything written is all about you, and that your analysis is the authoritative and conclusive analysis. It isn’t.
Also, CSC does not rely on “this guy” for anything. I’m just a fan that sometimes likes to share his thoughts with other Saints fans and other football fans. I didn’t mention your post because it wasn’t the reason for mine. I started writing it BEFORE I saw the post on Stampede Blue. It’s one of MANY that have stated the same argument. Vikings fans felt the same way before the Saints did it to their team, and they already knew AP is prone to fumbling. They thought their offense (which is actually the number 2 offense in the land this year, just behind the Saints) would run up the score on the Saints. They actually have a ground game with a premier running back, and all the yards they amassed don’t matter. They lost to the team that was coached to take the ball away from them. The Saints didn’t get lucky five times in one game, the Vikes were lucky three times. When you figure that one out, come back with your rebuttal.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
by ArithMattic on Feb 5, 2010 12:24 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
You guys wouldn't even recognize the sky if it fell on you
Fumble luck? When a defense is coached to swarm to the ball, and to strip it out whenever possible, it’s only reasonable to assume that in the case of a fumble that defense is going to enjoy a manpower superiority in the vicinity of the fumble. It should come as no surprise that such defenses recover the ball at a rate higher than random chance could account for.
There’s something that stat geeks such as Football Outsiders never seem to get: there’s no such thing as a “random act.” Y’all go ahead and crunch numbers all you want; we’ll crunch Colts.
"They caught me bathing and sold my clothes."
by MtnExile on Feb 5, 2010 11:59 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
except the data never bares that idea out
there isn’t a statistically significant amount of consistency in the rate teams recover fumbles. Forcing fumbles, yes. Not fumlbing, yes. but when the ball is loose no team is better at pulling it in from year to year. It’s just variation putting some teams up high and others down low.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
You didn't listen to a word he said, so I'll repeat the important part for you...
“When a defense is coached to swarm to the ball, and to strip it out whenever possible, it’s only reasonable to assume that in the case of a fumble that defense is going to enjoy a manpower superiority in the vicinity of the fumble. It should come as no surprise that such defenses recover the ball at a rate higher than random chance could account for.”
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
except the data never bares that idea out
there isn’t a statistically significant amount of consistency in the rate teams recover fumbles. Forcing fumbles, yes. Not fumlbing, yes. but when the ball is loose no team is better at pulling it in from year to year. It’s just variation putting some teams up high and others down low.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
Again
There. Is. No. Such. Thing. As. A. Random. Act. Intention and training count for more than the bounce of the ball. And by the way: what happened last year has no bearing on this year…something else you stat freaks never seem to get.
And by the way again: it’s “bear,” not “bare.”
"They caught me bathing and sold my clothes."
So the links with all the Statistical research
are all bull you-know-what? Is that what you are saying?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
BAZINGA!! rec'd
Y’all go ahead and crunch numbers all you want; we’ll crunch Colts.
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
no one else in the league "coaches" swarming to the ball?
you really think you guys are the only one? That is probably day two of mini-camp for every team in the league
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Dude
The Saints have 39 forced turnovers this season only 2nd to Green Bay’s 40, 8 of which became defensive touchdowns leading to 141 points. No one said no one else coaches but GW obviously coaches it better and more. Not even sure how or why this is even an argument right now.
"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." - Vince Lombardi
well then how come his Jaguar defenses (that were much better personnel than the Saints)
didn’t perform similarly in this regard?
I implore you to go read Shake’s article.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
You say they were much better
I say the statistics say they weren’t. The guy had a lot of success before he was with the Jags, and has had great success here with us.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Yes better
The Saints in the last three years averaged the 25th ranked defense, the Jaguars averaged the 12th best. Yet their turnover and fumble recovery rates aren’t outstanding or even average.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
You need to make up your mine. Either GW is a great defensive coach or he isn't.
You can’t have it both ways. Personnel does play a big role in defenseive gameplans and outcomes. If one team has a bunch of undersized but slightly faster than average defensive players, you coach to their abilities, instead of trying to make them the second coming of the Steele Curtain. I know, your stats don’t show that… because they aren’t included in your stats. Let me put it to you this way, the Saints didn’t get to where they are today by being clones of Baltimore. Different personnel with a different skill set, thus, different game plan. They are very good at what they do, even if it isn’t the traditional defensive scheme your stats are geared towards.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
only going to correct one thing this time (it isn't our stats "your stats" it is the leagues stats).
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 6:26 PM CST up reply actions
OH now you like stats lol
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 6:24 PM CST up reply actions
Fumble luck
is so freaking ridiculous. The work hard at drills in practice. NONE of that has to do with luck.
"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." - Vince Lombardi
and no one else does?
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
Sure you practice it... just like everyone else...
We practice it MORE & BETTER…
And then, we go out and EXECUTE!
Watch the tape!
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
Every team practices, not every team executes
I’m sure every team practices the shotgun spread, but the Colts clearly do it best. I bet the colts practice running the ball, but clearly they don’t do it as well. I think you can argue the same thing for takeaways. Why is this so hard to believe? I’ll concede that just because we are good at something doesn’t guarantee it pans out in a game, but that goes for all aspects of football.
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Feb 5, 2010 3:42 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
BAZINGA!!!
I bet the colts practice running the ball, but clearly they don’t do it as well.
LMAO!!!
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
do you all honestly believe the Saints are the only ones that drill the shizit out of fumble recoveries?
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
of course they are
only a super-genius like Sean Payton or Greg Williams could see the value in having players swarm to the ball and try to recover a loose one. The other 31 teams tell the 10 men not currently attempting to tackle the ball carrier to just observe quietly from where they are, and to ignore loose balls.
/ArithMattic’ed
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 12:35 PM CST up reply actions
So... how is it that the Saints are so much luckier than everyone else...
and what makes you think that if they were that lucky all season long and throughout the playoffs, the luck would stop when they play the Colts?
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
One, the Colts don't fumble the ball
if there are no fumbles, no fumble recoveries.
The NFC has won the Coin Toss in the Super Bowl the past 12 years. Is there an equal chance of the Colts and Saints to win the Coin Toss?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
See, here you go with the luck thing again.
A coin flip is 50-50, heads or tails. Now, according to your logic, that would mean that it would come out 50-50 for the two conferences, but what you’re missing is that each occurence is it’s own occurence. If you flip the coin yourself 50 times, calling heads each time, then yes, you probably will get somewhere around a 25-25 split. But if you’re in a group of 10 people, and each of them calls their own side (i.e. one person calls heads while another calls something else and so on down the line) then the 50-50 split does not occur. You’ve introduced a new variable, the person’s CHOICE. They can either choose correctly or not. In the case of the Super Bowl coin flip, that determines who wins the toss. Do you get that, or should I direct you to a math teacher?
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Wow you completely missed the point
The fact that the NFC has won the last 12 coin tosses in the Super Bowl has no bearing on how good the Saints will do choosing Heads or Tails.
Same goes for recovering fumbles, if you’d just read the links shake has provided.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Oh, I get it now...
you’re saying that the Saints have a 50-50 chance of recovering the fumble, and there’s nothing that they can do about it to tip the odds in their favor. I get it now… thanks for enlightening me!
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
It's what the study showed
that took into account more than the 17 games the Saints played in 2009/10.
Find me something that says differently, then I’ll believe it isn’t random.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Stop looking at papers prepared by people who don't watch games.
The statistics will only help you if you understand what went into creating them. I’m more than sure your coach doesn’t believe the Saints were lucky to get what they got… but if he does, well, you guys are in for a very rude awakening.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Somebody who spends
the amount of time to create those studies clearly hates watching the game.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Clearly, since whoever it was hasn't noticed that the Saints
treat every down as if there’s the possibility of creating a turnover, and are usually right there in position to take advantage of it. Believe it or not, that does skew the fumble recovery rate towards the Saints.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
You'll get it once you put it in this light...
How successful was your passing game before Peyton Manning? How many championships has Manning won prior to the arrival of Tony Dungy? What was your team defense like before the arrival of Tony Dungy? Would you say your Super Bowl 41 defense was the same as your non-Super Bowl 39 defense?
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
There are many things
that are based on skill, including forcing fumbles, passing ability, rushing ability, etc. These have been proven the same way as the fumble recovery/Interception rate studies.
All of those things you listed correlate season to season, which is a reason Brees has been so successful over the past 4 years.
We are specifically arguing about Fumble Recoveries and Interception Rate. That’s it.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
No, I simply don't attribute hard work and preparation
to luck. Have you ever played football?
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
That is not my argument...
but luck is an unexpected opportunity that you’re able to take advantage of. Skill is the ablity to take advantage of opportunities that others don’t even know are there.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
you are confusing an individual team with league wide trends
and cherry picking examples. Sure the transition from pre-Peyton to Peyton made a difference in the passing stats, but that is more than drown out by the decade of Peyton to Peyton non transitions, and by all the other teams league-wide who aren’t changing QBs that year.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Tell that to mgrex,
he thinks I’m confusing it with something else entirely. Personally, I think you’re both wrong…
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
You are arguing
about things we agree on, such as passing skill, rushing skill, stopping the pass/rush skill, etc.
We are only arguing about 2 specific things: Fumble Recoveries and Interception Rate. That’s it.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Something different:
Logic. Boom. Discussion over.
The only luck involved in recovering a fumble revolves around being by the ball when it takes a good bounce.
Other than that, there is skill involved in picking up fumbles.
Case in point: The game against the Jets when Sanchez was stripped, and the ensuing fumble recovered in the endzone. That wasn’t a bout of luck, so much as skill.
Lastly: 17 games is not enough of a pool to draw from when determining trends.
A coin toss =/= a fumble recovery
"I definitely believe in destiny, and I believe in karma and what goes around comes around. We have been on the other side of this deal probably too many times. Maybe it's our time that we start catching some of the breaks, and start being the team that wins them like this in the end." -- Drew Brees
Is it because you have a horseshoe on your helmet?
I think you’ll be lucky if we don’t take that too while we’re taking your Championship aspirations and snatching them out of the air! Or scooping them up on our way to the endzone… or punching them out of your hands as we streak towards the endzone.. or whatever other lucky occurence comes our way!
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
"Luck" occurs when preparation meets opportunity.
I think Vince Lombardi said that once upon a time.
by Drew-Dat on Feb 5, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Say it enough times
And maybe they’ll believe you.
"I definitely believe in destiny, and I believe in karma and what goes around comes around. We have been on the other side of this deal probably too many times. Maybe it's our time that we start catching some of the breaks, and start being the team that wins them like this in the end." -- Drew Brees
Vince also said, "This is a football." Maybe J of the F should start there and work his way forward?
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers.
by Just 'Nother Day on Feb 6, 2010 7:28 AM CST up reply actions
Wouldn't help :(
I don’t know my posterior from my face. The similarity is uncanny.
"I definitely believe in destiny, and I believe in karma and what goes around comes around. We have been on the other side of this deal probably too many times. Maybe it's our time that we start catching some of the breaks, and start being the team that wins them like this in the end." -- Drew Brees
Magic Man, homes!
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Who said
the Saints are the only ones? Now you guys are just being dumby. Come on…
"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." - Vince Lombardi
"arith" has implied that multiple times
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 6:41 PM CST up reply actions
No I haven't
stop making stuff up.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
One Word
Patriots
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
by Dan Kelly on Feb 5, 2010 12:14 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Hahaha
it’s getting to the point where if anyone on this Saints forum says the Saints are better at something over the Colts the Colts peeps have to argue about it. I can see the age differences coming into play here now. Some things just are. No need to argue about everything little thing. Silly youngins.
"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." - Vince Lombardi
Theirs Must Be Bigger
I am still laffing about the post, but after reading the Colts fans responses, I am laffing harder.
“Look Man, Mine is Bigger than yours”
ROFLMAO
If you are not having a good time, dont think anyone is gonna have one for you!!
If Greg Williams teaches something special about recovering fumbles
then why did his Jags D last year finish dead last in fumble recoveries, pulling in just 4 of 15 fumbles forced?
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
link
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
2007 Redskins, coached by Williams
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 12:57 PM CST up reply actions
2006 Redskins
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
2005 Redskins
You know, if I only had these 5 seasons of data, I’d think that Greg Williams was actually kinda bad at teaching teams to recover fumbles, but clearly you need a bigger sample size right?
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
for good measure, 2004 Redskins
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Just because you teach something, doesn't mean it'll get executed.
GW teaches it AND we have the guys that execute it.
They’re not perfect… They missed out on recovering 3 fumbles THAT THEY CAUSED, in the Vikes game.
But, they are better at stripping. They’re better at recovering. They’re better at getting interceptions. Not perfect, but better than most.
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
Remember what I said about personnel?
Or did you already forget that?
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
we'll probably have time to get to that
after I’m done blowing up the assumption that Gregg Williams has any special ability to coach teams to recover a high % of fumbles
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
by shake n bake on Feb 5, 2010 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
Lol
you guys really must be scared if you have to spend this many hours on the opposing team’s forum arguing about this. Notice that most Saints fans don’t have the need for that? Yeah.
"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." - Vince Lombardi
right....
you might want to look at the timeline. I posted an article on the topic. Arith condescended to grace us with his voluminous football knowledge in the comments on Stampede Blue, and I noticed this post in his recent history on a similar topic.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Again, I started writing my article BEFORE I saw your...
it just so happened that yours was along the same lines as the one I was writing… do you really think I’d NOT say something? I even stated that I agree with some of it, but some of it was just plain doo doo. Are you saying that I don’t have a right to state my opinion, and that by simply telling you where your argument falls apart I’m condescending? Okay, maybe I was a bit condescending… especially since I was already tired of such asenine arguments calling my teams success “luck.” Sue me. Call me whatever you want, but don’t forget to stop by and eat your crow like a big boy if it turns out I was right.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Your team's success wasn't luck
Recovering as many fumbles as the defense did was luck.
There’s a giant difference, and I think you know that. Nobody has said the Saints are “lucky” to be in the Super Bowl. That is incredibly dumb to say and completely not true.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Forcing fumbles was not luck
recovering them can be considered luck. More forced fumbles equals more opportunities. Now if you get the number of forced fumbles and the number of recovered fumbles is about 50 percent of that, then yes it is luck. But if the number of recovered fumbles is significantly greater than 50 percent then that is skill meeting opportunity.
I firmly believe that forcing fumbles is not luck.
Recovering them is a different story.
that's what we are saying
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/04/fumbles-and-fumbles-lost.html
there’s the study I’ve cited. Forcing fumbles=skill, Not fumbling=skill, recovering fumbles=chance.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Recovering fumbles is PART luck, and PART skill.
You can practice to react to “how an irregularly shaped ball bounces”… not to become perfect at predicting and reacting, but improving your chance of recovery… just like baseball outfielders practice stopping/catching ground balls.
And, that article (like most people) assumes that fumbles are random acts in themselves… but, in fact, fumbles can be caused.
So, if you can CAUSE more fumbles, even if recovery is random (which it’s not completely), you can RECOVER more fumbles.
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
DING DING DING
We have a winner! Thank you very much. That’s exactly what we’ve said, and shown.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
This isn't Colts specific though
If the stats were switched, we’d be saying the same thing.
He used every game for several years. I just use what he finds, whether it helps the Colts or not.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
seriously
in the first post in this thread I cited stats I like better for evaluating Ds than yards per game, and they happened to make the Saints D look better than the 25th cited in the poll.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
so, which incoming personnel brought a knack for recovering fumbles?
since Greg Williams actually had a consistently sub par record of his Ds recovering fumbles before this year.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Coach Williams was allowed to play our defense like he wants to play other offenses
It started a big stink in training camp. But Sean Payton allowed him to attack our offense on every down. That my friend has made all the difference.
Because
1. He and Jack del Rio didn’t see eye to eye, and del Rio took over the defense.
2. More importantly, Jacksonville and New Orleans have different personnel on defense. Surprise, surprise! You guys thought it was all about numbers and probability, and turns out there are actually different people with different talents and abilities involved! Will wonders ever cease?
"They caught me bathing and sold my clothes."
Yeah
I am not understanding how that isn’t common sense.
"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." - Vince Lombardi
Come on, this is common sense
Are you really trying to tell me you don’t understand the concept that every group has strengths and weaknesses that are different from the next? How many thousands of athletes put in the same amount of time and practice and yet some are better than others? You coach to strengths, you practice fixing your weaknesses. This is silly for me to even have to explain because it goes way beyond football.
"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." - Vince Lombardi
Really?
A bunch of statistical evidence < a bunch of fans with no facts to backup their opinions.
Yep, beyond our mental ability. Care to show us something that disagrees with the studies linked? That fumbles recovered isn’t a random occurrence? It’s beyond my mental ability.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Uh, pretty sure the evidence we gave you
is statistical. I guess 39 turnovers and 2nd best in the league by 1 turnover isn’t statistical. Neither is the 141 points. All accidents. Completely random. Hahaha awesome!
I’m out, you guys are grasping at this point. Better things to do with my time than try to teach common sense to a bunch of kiddos. Good luck Sunday, you will need it. But you already knew that or you wouldn’t be here :)
"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious." - Vince Lombardi
large sample size > small
that should be obvious to someone with your apparent wealth of common sense ; )
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Could you be less of a prick, please?
I know you think highly of yourself, but Jesus.
I’ve read the article you provided.
I happen to disagree with their contention. You don’t.
We can agree to disagree, but seeing as how your source’s (a blog, mind you) evidence does not prove anything, other than show that fumbles are not recovered even half as often as they are forced, I contend that you lack the necessarily empirical evidence to prove your contention.
Furthermore, the blogger in question didn’t even follow the scientific method. He chooses (and admits he does so) to omit variables:
“However, fumble recoveries are random and depend on where players happen to be when the ball comes loose, who sees it first, and how an irregularly shaped ball bounces. Put simply, fumble recovery is chaotic and therefore not indicative of a team’s future ability to produce or recover fumbles.” (emphasis mine)
These are three variables that the blogger in question addresses.
What about speed in regards to the defender versus the offensive opponent?
Agility of defender?
Reflexes of defender?
It would be folly for me to contend that luck does not play a role in the acquisition of a fumble, but to attribute the recovery of a fumble solely to luck is simply ignorant.
"I definitely believe in destiny, and I believe in karma and what goes around comes around. We have been on the other side of this deal probably too many times. Maybe it's our time that we start catching some of the breaks, and start being the team that wins them like this in the end." -- Drew Brees
Give 'im hell, bro!
Unfortunately, your explaination will go in one horseshoe and out the other!
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers.
by Just 'Nother Day on Feb 6, 2010 7:50 AM CST up reply actions
AGREED!
The article is flawed in several areas…
Assumptions
Key factors
Connclusions
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
Yes, 18 games is the perfect sample size
instead of years upon years of data. Clearly the 2009 Saints are the only thing that should go into it.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
You can certainly argue
that it could have improved their ability to force fumbles, I’ll agree with that. He could have improved a lot of other things too because of it. Recovering fumbles though? I won’t believe it, at least not yet.
If the next 2 years the Saints recover 80+% of fumbles forced, then we’ll revisit this. Until then, I’ll let years upon years of data lead the way.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
You'd get laughed at
If you tried using these statistics as your sole means of evidence to prove your contention in a university/real world setting.
I guess we can be lenient here in the blogosphere, seeing as how everyone is an expert at teh internets.
"I definitely believe in destiny, and I believe in karma and what goes around comes around. We have been on the other side of this deal probably too many times. Maybe it's our time that we start catching some of the breaks, and start being the team that wins them like this in the end." -- Drew Brees
if they have different strengths and weaknesses those strengths and weaknesses should remain somewaht consistent
from year to year and within a season.
If you do really well at a task one year, then really badly, then average, then ok, then a bit sub-par. Do you think the best explanation is that the task is based on a skill that you gained and lost over time, or that it’s heavily chance dependent.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
If that's the case, why didn't the Colts win the Super Bowl in 2005 and 2007?
"They caught me bathing and sold my clothes."
They lost a game
in January.
Doesn’t change anything he said.
If the Saints were so awesome at recovering fumbles, why did they let Minnesota recover 50% of their fumbles?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
At least one of those was a failed scoop and score...
watch the games, I’m sure you can find them.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
yeah mgrex
with Gregg Williams at the helm Nick Harper never would have gotten stabbed by his wife before the game and certainly wouldn’t have gotten shoestring tackled by Roethlisburger.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
I've been living a lie then!
Why couldn’t have the Colts had Williams on staff??
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
because they need more practice!
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
because chance plays into games !!!!!
they consistently won games, a sign of skill, but when the sample size shrunk, where chance plays a larger role, they didn’t win so consistently.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Are you serious?
Really? The friggin sample size determines the outcome of games?
Look, nobody is saying there is no component of chance in games. Nor that the way the football bounces doesn’t affect recoveries. But when one team, which emphasizes a particular skill and practices it more intensively, turns out to have a better success rate than almost any other team, you’re left with a choice: you can believe they really are better, or that they’re lucky. You guys believe we’re lucky. Fine, go ahead and believe that, if it helps in the grieving process.
"They caught me bathing and sold my clothes."
I could have explained that better
sample size is the difference between regular season success and playoff success. A better team finishes the regular season with a better record very often because 16 games is a decent amount of trials. In a single elimination scenario the better team is much less likely to come out on top.
This isn’t about choosing to believe anything. This is about us citing data, and you saying “well we’re special”.
In case you didn’t check it out already.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/04/fumbles-and-fumbles-lost.html
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
I think the main sentence is
Put simply, fumble recovery is chaotic and therefore not indicative of a team’s future ability to produce or recover fumbles.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
and I thought it was the stuff on Defensive INT% that would turn heads
the fumble recovery stuff is so much of a given with people who make an effort to use/understand stats.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Guess Again
Jags Are Dummer Than Saints?
If you are not having a good time, dont think anyone is gonna have one for you!!
The Offense will win the game for the Saints...
This discussion on takeaways will prove irrelevant… the Colts will score and the Saints will score more… why… because they are the better team on that side of the ball… numbers say that not me… can Indy apply the same type of pressure as Minnesota did… if you dont good luck…
By the way… there are striking similarities to when the Patriots came to town… marquee QB, team pedigree, mega offense, fast D, young secondary… right… and we threw the kitchen sink at them… The only advantage Indy has is the “intangible” of having been there… although we could argue that the swagger the team has been playing, for the city and all, should balance that…
But come on fellow guests… Indy better come out with something else rather than thinking going in a shootout will be enough… If you think so you have not paid enough attention then…
Bring the wood
pretty much agree however besides the obvious disagreement I will say the pats D is not like ours as you try to say they are.
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 7:29 PM CST up reply actions
Let's have an experiement
I’m going to flip a coin and you guys can call it. If you get over/under 50% will you declare your impressive coin flipping skills or understand variance?
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
TAILS!!!!!
Peyton says always go tails. He has great coin flipping skills.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
"Predicting" a coin flip isn't a skill
You understand statistics and think you understand everything. You don’t understand the difference between random events and skilled competition.
"They caught me bathing and sold my clothes."
The study linked
says recovering fumbles is a random event. Care to show us a study saying otherwise? Or want to explain that the study was set up incorrectly?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
I couldn't care less what the study says
Anyone who doesn’t understand that superior skill and training plays as large a role in games as luck is an idiot. He may be a well-educated idiot, but that only increases the sophistication of his errors.
You guys don’t get it. You probably never will.
"They caught me bathing and sold my clothes."
by MtnExile on Feb 5, 2010 1:32 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
DON'T CONFUSE ME WITH THE FACTS, I'VE MADE UP MY MIND.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
We are only arguing about
Fumble Recovery and Interception Rate. That’s it.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
exactly.
even in the related field of forcing fumbles and not fumbling the ball, the studies show clear evidence of it being related to skill.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Care to provide me with a study
That takes into account a myriad of variables (possibly those I mentioned above), as opposed to those cherry picked by the “expert” you are citing?
Hrm?
"I definitely believe in destiny, and I believe in karma and what goes around comes around. We have been on the other side of this deal probably too many times. Maybe it's our time that we start catching some of the breaks, and start being the team that wins them like this in the end." -- Drew Brees
It "says" it, be it doesn't PROVE it.
I can “say” the sky is red, but I can’t prove it.
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
its only dirty if they don't honestly tell us the results of the flip
:-)
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Let me try to explain this in a way you may understand
Imagine the New Orleans Saints played you guys—shake n bake, mgrex03, AJforAZ and all the rest of you. Let’s say that shake hands off to mgrex, who proceeds to get whammed by Bobby McCray. Know what? I bet mgrex fumbles. Know what else? I bet the Saints recover. Do the same thing twenty times, and I’d be willing to bet every time on the same result. The reason? The Saints are better than you are. They’re trying to make you fumble, and they’re trying to recover the ball, and they’re better at both than you are.
When they play other NFL teams, of course, the gap in skill levels closes considerably…but it’s still there. Instead of being 18 or 19 for 20 in causing fumbles, they may cause only 3 fumbles and only recover 2 of them. But what is operating here isn’t chaos, but intention and training. If statistics can’t find an overall pattern, that’s a deficiency in statistics more than anything else.
"They caught me bathing and sold my clothes."
by MtnExile on Feb 5, 2010 1:42 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Somehow, I don't think they'll understand...
their statistics don’t account for that, therefore it must not be true.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
if there's no statistically significant pattern
any difference in recovery ability is minuscule. The exact same study found a significant skill component to forcing fumbles and not fumbling. So any difference in recovery ability has to be dwarfed by the difference in players abilities to force/not make fumbles.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
You really believe this?
If statistics can’t find an overall pattern, that’s a deficiency in statistics more than anything else.
Please pattern for me:
- 1000 Coin Flips
- 1000 spins of the Roulette Wheel
I’ll anxiously await your patterns.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
no no no mgrex
those are things he hasn’t assumed to be skill already, so of course there’s no pattern.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Lucky Eyes
Watch the film, it clearly shows, Meachem stripping the ball, Porter doing the same thing. So, how come you dont believe your own eyes. I guess the fact that you cant see it on the replay makes you blind, therefore it has to be luck!!!!
If you are not having a good time, dont think anyone is gonna have one for you!!
stripping and forcing fumbles is not the argument man
come on already. The issue at hand is RECOVERING fumbles as a random occurrence. The numbers say luck more than skill factors into recovery. Over a decade worth of numbers point out to the Saints enormous recovery rate as being an anomaly.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
This is what you guys keep missing...
the play doesn’t end with the strip, it ends with the recovery! Randomness happens when something is unexpected, but if you expect it to happen then you know what to look for and how to take advantage of it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcCeDna7v5s
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
by ArithMattic on Feb 5, 2010 4:42 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Are you seriously trying to win this debate with a point that
the Saints are the best in the league at expecting the unexpected?
I Bleed Blue! Go Colts!
by Mr. Indianapolis Colts on Feb 5, 2010 4:48 PM CST up reply actions
basically yes
this may account for all of the yardage given up. They just expect there to be a fumble so 11 guys are taking awful routs on the ball. Which doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense being that they only forced 15 on the season.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
It isn't unexpected when you're trying to force it every single play!
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Do you not understand every team does that. Not all are as good at it though.
oh and another thing THAT ISN"T THE ARGUMENT. WE ARE NOT SAYING THAT FORCING FUMBLES IS LUCK
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 7:33 PM CST up reply actions
the forcing them isn't luck the RECOVERING Them at a rate of 80+% or whatever that number is
has some amount of luck in it. Is it all Luck no and I don’t think anyone is saying it is completely luck but only that luck plays a role in that percentage. Also many of you have said that we are saying you guys are lucky. We are not saying your team is lucky to be where they are in any way it is only about the percentage and the recovering of the fumbles. If you think it is totally and 100% all skill then I guess you will never get our point.
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 7:49 PM CST up reply actions
if the average recovery rate is around 50%
and we have an 80% recovery rate, shouldn’t you recognize that there’s a little more than luck at play here?
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
did you read it all?
I didn’t say it was all luck and skill def. has a role in it (how big know one knows for sure) but I will say Luck also does. Maybe luck isn’t the right word, BUT i would say you def. had the ball bounce your way more than most teams have in a season in the past. I think you or anyone (teams) would be foolish to think it is 100 or even 90% skill that your team has over all other teams
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 8:51 PM CST up reply actions
Okay, so maybe I shouldn't have said "little"
I’m not going to put a percentage on it, since there’s absolutely no way to quantify something as intangible as “luck.” I will say that if one practices free throws with a good teacher who teaches proper form, one will become a better free throw shooter. If one practices free throw shooting with a bad teacher that doesn’t know proper form, but instead just instructs you to just keep shooting, it’s possible that you’ll get better, but not likely.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Does that article say that the recovery rate is 50%? I don't see it.
And, EVEN IF the overall rate of all teams is 50%, that doesn’t PROVE anything… except that half the fumbles that are committed are recovered by the other team.
How did each team do during that study?
Were there teams that had 80% recovery rate, and some that had a 20% rate? I’d be willing to bet that there were.
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
They will never understand this (It is beyond them)
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 7:32 PM CST up reply actions
No the striping the ball (forcing fumbles) is not the issue we are talking about.
The Horses font feet have cleared the huddle and as time slows it is also time for the back feet to clear and for us to declare victory!!!!! GO COLTS!!!
previously known as (ANGELSFAITH)
by TheAngelsColts on Feb 5, 2010 7:50 PM CST up reply actions
Wow, man, you really don't get it.
Your methodology is wrong. If you don’t account for skill in a situation that requires skill then any statistics that you compile will be misinterpreted and subject to ridicule. If you’ve ever played basketball then you know that some people are very much better than others at shooting from the free throw line or the three point line. Some are tall enough to dunk without jumping very high, and some jump very high and are thus able to dunk despite their relatively short stature. If you simply lump statistics together and come up with an average, saying that anything above those averages is luck, then your methodology is tragically flawed, and people who know better will ridicule you. If you say Shaq will make the same number of free throws as Steve Nash in the same number of shots, you are a fool, simply because you didn’t account for their individual skill at shooting free throws. Sure, you can say that the statistics say otherwise, but the reality won’t match your statistics. You can argue all you want, but Steve will always make more free throws than Shaq. Same with the Saints and INT’s & Fumble recoveries.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
you totally misunderstand the argument
no one is saying that there aren’t areas where some players and teams aren’t better than others, but we are citing data showing that there is not year to year, or inside season correlation between past and future fumble recovery rate.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Why are you arguing year to year in regards to a team that is not the same as it was a year ago?
Different players, different coaching, different defensive philosophies. You can only look at what THIS team has done, not what last year’s team did.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
I think you missed a line
or inside season correlation between past and future fumble recovery rate
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
This guy gets it
http://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/2010/2/5/1296836/only-a-few-more-days#30324166
You should argue with him.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
You mean the creator of Winning Stats?
That guys couldn’t tell a trend from a freak occurence.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Nope
DrWhoDat.
You should try attacking my argument, instead of attacking me.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
yet do you have it either
Get stats from this year, this team.
I was telling you how to prove your point.
the whole point is that this year's Saints are a statistical anomaly on fumble recoveries
seriously check out Shake’s article he wrote for the Washington Post. It explains it really well
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
here ya go
http://www.stampedeblue.com/2010/2/5/1296668/colts-saints-the-big-play-and-the#comments
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
OK, I read it....
Yes the Saints are an anomaly. They are actually good at something no one can understand. So, I guess the colts are not going to be preaching ball control before the big game. Not!
I think they will
preach ball control, even though the Saints are middle-of-the-pack in forcing fumbles.
They actually preach ball control all the time, which is why they were #1 in the league with only 11 fumbles all year.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
The study takes into account
multiple years worth of data. I don’t know exactly, but let’s say 5 years.
32×16×5 = 2560 games.
That’s a lot more than the 18 the Saints have played this season. It’s the same reasoning why the NFC has won the coin toss the past 12 Super Bowls. Does the NFC has some innate skill at winning the coin toss?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
The sample size is flawed then
You need to take into account the freedom that coach Williams had this year. Drew Brees and all of the offensive coaches were crying to Payton that he(Williams) was crazy. Quote from training camp, “If you don’t like what he is doing to you, stop it.”
Like I have said earlier this has made the difference.
I suggest we revisit this next year
If you’re right, 80+% of fumbles forced by the Saints will be recovered by the Saints.
I wouldn’t bet on that happening, but again, 12 straight coin tosses can happen too.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Dude, the coin toss argument is dead.
It doesn’t apply here. There is no luck in watching film and knowing where a QB likes to throw, then jumping the route when he throws that way. You keep attributing our defensive success to luck, but the numbers don’t support it. Luck is happenstance, what you’re witnessing is a trend.
p.s. Again, you forget to mention the variables in your coin toss analogy. Who’s calling it? What did they call? Was it an NFC person calling heads each time, or not. The fact that the NFC won the toss doesn’t mean that they called it. That’s where your analogy falls apart.
In the case of the Saints, yes, they did indeed call the picks AND the fumbles. They watch the tape, know what the tendencies are, and actively work their butts off to take advantage of them, FORCING fumbles and interceptions by baiting QB’s and attempting to strip everyone else every single play.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
FOR THE LAST TIME
You keep attributing our defensive success to luck
I have never said this, ever. I’ve said that the Saints ability to recover fumbles is luck. Their ability to stop teams on 3rd down, stop them in the red zone, break up a pass, sack the qb, etc are NOT LUCK. I don’t know how many times I have to say that.
All that junk about “variables” in the coin toss mean nothing. Either the NFC wins, or the AFC wins. Should be 50/50. It hasn’t been, even though it is random. Stats 101 teaches you that.
And FORCING fumbles is a skill. Recovering them is random, even if you don’t believe the statistical evidence.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
So, are you at least agreeing that INT's aren't luck?
Because if we’ve gotten that far, I’m sure I can convince you of the rest as well.
Okay, when you say that “the Saints ability to recover fumbles is luck.” you are indeed saying that our defensive success is luck. You admit that forcing fumbles is a skill, but why can’t you admit that in addition to forcing fumbles, one could also prepare to recover forced fumbles?
Here, this should show you all you need to know about us forcing and recovering fumbles.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcCeDna7v5s
Listen to the announcers, so you see I’m not the only one that feels this way.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Interception Rate is random
Defensive success can be attributed to lots of things, almost all of them are not lucky.
How about I say this too:
The Colts ability to recover fumbles is random. The Colts Defensive Interception Rate is random.
Quote it all you like. And I’ll change my previous quote:
The Saints ability to recover fumbles is random.
Anecdotal evidence is nice, but doesn’t prove anything.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
this was a video, not anecdotal evidence.
Here, you get to see a player in position to make a play by wrapping up the receiver, holding him up and punching the ball out of his hands. This is followed by another player diving in the direction of the play, followed by another player who scoops up the fumble. Take a look at number 51. Notice that he’s already running in the direction of the play while the Vikings #81 (who is looking at the same play and is actually closer to it) already thinks the play is over. Vilma was looking for a fumble, the Vikings weren’t. Advantage, Saints.
That does not show up in your stats. That’s why your stats fail at explaining why we recover more than your probability curve allows.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Uhhh...
Evidence, which may itself be true and verifiable, used to deduce a conclusion which does not follow from it, usually by generalizing from an insufficient amount of evidence.
One play, from one game, does not “deduce a conclusion”.
Many plays, just like this one, show up in the stats. This is not the first time a play like this has happened.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Okay, so an illustrative play, broken down, doesn't convince you.
yet you admit that we recovered an incredible percentage of our forced fumbles… yet seeing why does not convince you…
I give up. Call it luck all you want. If seeing isn’t believing because it’s too small a sample size, well, I guess I’ll have to find the other recovered fumbles as well as the ones that we just barely missed because we booted it away from ourselves. You wouldn’t believe those either though. I think I’ll let you continue in your train of thought.
Luckily for the Colts, you are not their coach.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Again
I’m sure the Colts are concerned about fumbling the ball. They were #1 in the league in Fumbles this season, with only 11, and one was Curtis Painter. They were excellent holding onto the ball.
Seeing one play won’t change my mind on anything. Had I only watched one Colts games this year, and it was the Jaguars game in Week 15, I’d think the Colts KO Return team was awesome. Unfortunately, I’ve watched a lot more games, and know that the KO Return team isn’t very good.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
2 were Curtis Painter
Jets game, Bills game
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Again, coaching has a LOT to do with, as well as personnel.
Watch the video a few times, you’ll get it.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
mgrex03 - I'm confused. Perhaps you can explain.
Hypothetically, If I agree that fumble recoveries are random, would it not also be statistically correct to say if a team creates more fumbles than would have otherwise occurred, they would thereby increase their random liklihood of recovering same?
I would agree with that
The more forced fumbles → the more chances for recovering a fumble.
As an example, a team that forces 30 fumbles has a much better chance of recovering 13 fumbles than a team who only forces 15 fumbles. Is that what you’re asking?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
it wouldn't affect the rate of recovery on average
but the number of fumble recoveries would be higher. The thing is recovering 13 of 15 is abnormally high. The only thing that is being pointed out by us and argued by everyone else is that it is abnormally high.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
and thus, unsustainable
I Bleed Blue! Go Colts!
by Mr. Indianapolis Colts on Feb 5, 2010 4:05 PM CST up reply actions
over the long term yes
that may or may not be so Sunday. Hopefully they never get the opportunity
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
I think what most of us are saying is...
the Saints are much better at creating fumbles than most teams. As a result, our fumble recoveries are abnormally high compared to most other teams.
If we have that out of the way, can we go back to debating who will win the coin flip?
Actually...
Saints are 28th in the league in Forced Fumbles
I’ve already resigned myself to the Saints winning the toss. They won’t give Manning the ball though like the Jets did.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
I don't keep, review or disect stats like you...
so I guess I’ll have to take your word for it.
Now I guess I’m back to there being nothing to account for the Saints high number of takeaways other than unbelievable luck or divine intervention. Maybe Jesus1000 is right afterall.
by Drew-Dat on Feb 5, 2010 4:55 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I would except for fear my house would burst into flames.
by Drew-Dat on Feb 5, 2010 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think we got off on the wrong foot
by saying “luck” rather than “random”, which is more accurate.
And forcing fumbles is not random, just so we’re on the same page.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
well the term "fumble luck"
is where everything went wrong.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Those are some weird a$$ stats...
How does a DEFENSE have 13 LOST FUMBLES? (It it claiming that the defense took the ball away, and then fumbled it 13 times???)
I think that table is flawed. How about another site?
I’m looking at my NON-official fantasy football stats, and several teams have WAY higher than 50% recovery rate..
Texans 13 for 13 (recovered to forced)
Bucs 10 for 10
Raiders 12 for 13
Saints 12 for 14
And some are much worse:
Redskins 6 for 17
"Pigs have flown! Hell has frozen over! The Saints are on their way to the Superbowl!!" Hear the call
Would you at least agree that this particular interception was not random?
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
by ArithMattic on Feb 12, 2010 11:58 AM CST up reply actions
What was that about the 1-15 Rams again?
I Bleed Blue! Go Colts!
by Mr. Indianapolis Colts on Feb 5, 2010 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
reply fail
I Bleed Blue! Go Colts!
by Mr. Indianapolis Colts on Feb 5, 2010 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
/hangs head in shame
I Bleed Blue! Go Colts!
by Mr. Indianapolis Colts on Feb 5, 2010 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
You guys are unbelievable
Okay, let’s try another one: the old football fumble recovery drill.
In one line, mgrex and shake and all the rest of you bozos. In the other, Will Smith, Jonathan Vilma, Sedrick Ellis, Darren Sharper, et al. We toss a ball between you, and one from each line goes for the recovery.
You really think you’ll recover roughly 50 percent? Really?
"They caught me bathing and sold my clothes."
Is it in a game situation?
No? Then your experiment fails.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
I think they have a straw man fetish around here.
not that there’s anything wrong with that.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
no because the data isn't about NFL players vs random guys
it’s NFL players vs NFL players in a game situation
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
In which case, you must believe there is no difference in skill level or training among NFL players.
"They caught me bathing and sold my clothes."
There are
stats upon stats upon stats that prove that skill level directly is attributed to success. Lots of them, including forcing fumbles, and fumbling.
Only 2 do not…Fumble Recoveries and Interception Rate. How many times do we have to say it?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
At least once more
because I still don’t see how you keep leaving coaching and game plans out of the equation.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
because no one has shown an effect in those two areas
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
Do you think Peyton Manning would have won his only Super Bowl
If Tony Dungy hadn’t improved the Colts defense? I think that should tell you all you need to know about coaching and game plans.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
What does this have to do with
the randomness of Fumble Recoveries and Interception rate?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
This particular argument is for shake n bake
but it could work for you as well. When teams change personnel and coaching, they get either better or worse at certain things. The Colts defense was not very good prior to Dungy’s arrival, but the Bucs defense WAS good under Dungy. Dungy moves over to Indy, and they end up changing personnel and eventually the defense is good enough to beat the Patriots en route to a Super Bowl. Of course, being a Colts fan, you did not hear about GW’s changes to our defense. You didn’t care. So I will say this and leave it at that: from the moment GW walked in, the focus has been being physically agressive and forcing turnovers. That has showed up in the stat sheet you’re looking at. Shake says there’s no correlation, but it’s much too much of a coincidence for the things that GW preaches to become manifested on the field to call it anything other than preparation and skill. You don’t have to believe it, the statistics you cite are all the proof you need.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Did Williams preach this stuff
last year in Jacksonville? Or when he was in Washington, Buffalo, or Tennessee? Or was this the first year he’s preached this stuff?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
And the circle goes around again
different team with different personnel, different game plan, different results.
If you drink O'Douls, you don't drink. But if you drink 20 O'Douls in a half hour, then you're a [bleep]ing non-alcoholic. Non-alcoholism is a problem too. And there are symptoms, like when you fall down, does it always hurt?
- Mitch Hedberg, April 9, 2002
Saints were 7 of 16 in 08, Gregg Williams' Jags were 4 of 15
Sharper’s Vikes 13 for 34, Greer’s Bills 12 of 21.
Where did this special ability come from since none of the parts showed this kind of tendency.
Luck is probability taken personally, clutch is probability attributed to individuals.
It is a simple question
I’d say that the reason Sean Payton brought him in was for that specific reason, correct? Meaning he had a reputation for an aggressive defense?
His defenses forced a lot more fumbles while he was in Washington, yet recovered less of them than the 2009 Saints. Is it because his players in Washington were awesome at forcing fumbles, but sucked at jumping on them, while the Saints weren’t as good at forcing fumbles, but were awesome at jumping on them?
Many, many, many games, including those that Gregg Williams coached, show that forcing fumbles is a skill, recovering fumbles is not.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
Why wouldn't he have?
We’re talking in games now, not practice.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
No, in practice....
The freedom that he was given is the difference, the mind set. This is what has carried over into games this year.
I am sure you have probably seen the play by WR Robert Meachem against the Redskins, it won most memorable play of the year or something on NFL.com. What did Robert say about the play. He said he credited playing against Williams’ defense during training camp. He said they had to get better at protecting the ball just playing against their own team, and that he recognized that the defender was carrying the ball wrong.
I would agree with everything you said
I’m guessing Williams has done the same things at his other stops, especially in Buffalo, as he was the Head Coach, so nobody could tell him “no”.
Again, I suggest we wait until at least next season before we begin to definitively say that Williams/Players/Saints are the reason for it, when a statistical study says otherwise. I’d guess he’d do the same thing next year, considering the success of the Saints, right?
It was a great play by Meachem, by the way. Won a fantasy game from it.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
I don't think it worked in Buffalo because....
Come on, who in their right mind wants to be in Buffalo? :)
Nobody wants to be in Indiana either, but they still have a pretty good team.
I wonder why that is??
The Saints QB
decided he wanted to spend 4 years there. He must be pretty dumb too then.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
He still chose
to spend 4 years in Indiana. I’m certain Purdue was not his only scholarship offer.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
2 other than Purdue agrees with this article
http://www.seattlepi.com/cfootball/rose29.shtml
He really wanted to go to Wazzou, but their coaches were/are really dumb.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
One thing I did not realize, having seen that Advanced NFL Stats article before:
Advanced NFL Stats doesn’t know statistics, or they wouldn’t cite something as “evidence of a lack of correlation” when what they’re talking about only indicates “a lack of evidence of correlation.”
Every few minutes, it hits me. "Holy *$^#, the Saints are in the Super Bowl."
So, the evidence actually there, as I read it: There is no statistically significant evidence that fumble recovery percentage is related to winning, although it wasn’t said whether there is evidence that fumble recovery is unrelated. This suggests that fumble recovery %age is essentially random, although our statistics say nothing on the topic.
Every few minutes, it hits me. "Holy *$^#, the Saints are in the Super Bowl."
I'm having trouble following
what you are saying, and what you believe AdvancedNFLStats is saying. Could you clarify for me?
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
The article I saw only actually measured “How much does fumble recovery rate (FRR from now on) correlate to winning?” They tested for evidence that makes the event “It does correlate” 95% certain. They didn’t find it.
They did not test, at any confidence level, how certain you can be of “It doesn’t correlate.”
They surmised, based upon this, that FRR is essentially random (does not predict itself) but did not actually have evidence in support of that claim.
Every few minutes, it hits me. "Holy *$^#, the Saints are in the Super Bowl."
If I'm reading it correctly
The null hypothesis he is using is that the events are random, which is why when the correlations are above 0.05, they are not significant enough to say they are random, or “I cannot prove this is random”.
FRR is under 0.05, so it is significant, so you can say there is enough evidence to say this is random.
If it were the other way around, he’d have shown that all the other stats were random, except for FRR.
Creator and developer of the Winning Stats.
I'm sure the folks at Stampede Blue....
think your statistical theories are brilliant. You’re not going to change anyone’s mind here. Statistics would indicate you will have a better success rate of agreement if you make your argument with someone who already agrees with you.
Can I get a link to those stats, please?
"I do know that we have some unfinished business that we started a few years ago and we want to finish the deal."- Dulymus McAllister
Statistics = Losers
From my days of youth & years of experience in this thing we call life, I have found that people who quote stats, and really try to do everything in their life according to stats, are perennial losers.
Losers generally are the ones quoting stats. Look at the Saints victory over da Vikes, stats prove, Vikes should have won, but they lost. Miami had the stats on da Colts, but Miami lost.
Keep quoting stats Colts fans, we will hoist the Trophy!!!!
If you are not having a good time, dont think anyone is gonna have one for you!!
i might be the only one to notice this but
god colts fans are arrogant, i mean, i know they have the only good football team in the league and theyre always right, and i know stats show the general tendencies of football teams, which is all that matters come sunday, but- blaaah i can’t do it, Toby is the worse…
also stats are for chumps, and i know im asking for an interweb brawl, but whatever.
i might read what you all have to say later, but i’ll always hide behind my computer ;)
why are you the way that you are? honestly, every time i try to do something fun or exciting, you make it not that way. i hate so much about the things that you choose to be.
True, there is a certain amount of luck involved
Once the ball comes out it could take a crazy bounce and go right to one person while 6 players from the opposing team crowd around him. I’ll admit that stuff like that does happen in a football game.
Now, you have to admit that having players in the right position to make a play is something that is coachable. Given the scenario above, the team that had 6 players in the area to make the recovery was doing something right. It doesn’t always equal a successful recovery, but it improves the chances greatly.
As for other teams coaching the same thing, the only way to explain it is that some players respond better to different coaches. The Saints defense responds well to Gregg Williams style of coaching. Maybe the Jags didn’t. Maybe the Redskins didn’t. I don’t know. The best example I can give is with Ricky Williams. He was a chump for the Saints. He goes to Miami and suddenly becomes a star. Deuce McAllister comes into the same system Williams left and also becomes a star. Doesn’t make the first bit of sense, but it happened. How do you explain that other than certain players responding to a coaching system better than others? That’s what we have with our players and Gregg Williams.
"That Brees is a good quarterback." - Giants Free Safety Michael Johnson after a 48-27 Saints victory.
In the case of Ricky Williams...
getting therapy for a social disorder and laying off the bong may have had as much to do with his new found success as changing teams.
Where did this whole thing start again?
Asking who is going to win the turnover battle? It will be close. I’ll go with the Colts and Saints each force one turnover. D Brown fumbles in the 2nd quarter and it’s recovered by the Saints. Then Brees is trying to tie the game late in the 4th and gets picked off by none other than TIM JENNINGS. Colts fans hold a meeting and decide not to give him crap for 9 months or until he gives his first 12 yard cushion (whichever comes first). Bum bum bummmmmm.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 5, 2010 3:46 PM CST reply actions
Saints force 3 fumbles, recover 2
Saints defense:
2 interceptions
2 fumble recoveries
6 personal fouls
Bongs are underappreciated
“There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” -Mark Twain It’s the fight in the dog, pencil-pushers.
"Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds" -Bob Marley
by PanheadCatahoula on Feb 5, 2010 3:50 PM CST reply actions
OOPS, they all ran away!!!!
Guess dey figgered we was too ignrant to unnerstan da fertlizer dey was tryin to spred on our grounds.
WHO DAT spoutin dem stats, WHO DAT???
AINT DA WINNERS must be da losers!!!!!!
If you are not having a good time, dont think anyone is gonna have one for you!!
You mean I scrolled all the way down for this???????
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers.
by Just 'Nother Day on Feb 6, 2010 6:54 AM CST up reply actions
Oh my Goodness JND you took the letters right off my fingers!!!!!!
Super Bowl BOUND!
by VoodooGrisGris on Feb 6, 2010 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
C'mon, girl. Teach 'em how to make a damn DRINK!!!
Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!
I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers.
by Just 'Nother Day on Feb 6, 2010 8:16 PM CST up reply actions
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