Saints Predict-A-Poll: 1,000-Yard Rusher?
by Dave Cariello on Jun 2, 2010 6:02 AM CDT
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PrintIt seems the Saints running game is in serious doubt next season, according to at least one main stream media "expert." As my front page colleague, MtnExile, so eloquently pointed out yesterday evening: that's pure lunacy. Maybe or maybe not. I certainly understand how an outsider could question the Saints ability to run the ball this year. With Mike Bell out of the picture, the team is losing 654 yards of total rushing offense.
All of this got me thinking, however, about how the Saints would actually maintain this success on the ground. Lynell Hamilton or P.J. Hill may impress this season, but not that much right? So if the Saints expect to roll along at a similar clip in 2010, it stands to reason that production will need to come from either Pierre Thomas or Reggie Bush. Somebody is going to have to step up their game.
So the question today, in what may or may not become a regular series of posts this off-season, is simple: Will the Saints have a running back rush for over 1,000 yards this regular season? If so, who will it be?
The purpose of this series of posts will be to record everyone's predictions about the 2010 Saints season, with each post covering a specific topic. Feel free to elaborate and go into detail about any and all of your prognostications for the Saints running game next season in this post. After the season, we will go back to this post and others like it for a good laugh or a pat on the back.
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Has Sean suddenly had a revelation.... Run baby run....
You are my people, you are my crowd, this is our music, we love it loud...
I’d settle for 3K rushing, 3K passing. I don’t care if Poppa Smurf is the one who accumulates them.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
3K rushing? Not a single team had over 3k rushing last year
"Hey, the offensive linemen are the biggest guys on the field, they're bigger than everybody else, and that's what makes them the biggest guys on the field."-John Madden
I think Thomas will have 1,000 this year.
And I think Bush will step up in a big way and get close to 1,000. But of course, his yards from scrimmage will put him well over 1,000.
Those rankings were ridiculous all around. Over Bleeding Green Nation they are being discussed as well since he put the Eagles at 31. Now I am the first to admit the Eagles seem almost afraid of the run, but I like LeSean McCoy, Mike Bell, Leonard Weaver and Charles Scott to do better than 31st in the NFL. It should be noted that while he considers losing Mike Bell an issue for the Saints, he doesn’t so much as mention the fact that he is now an Eagle. Well which is Bell? Important enough to be worrisome in absence or not worth considering at all? Just inconsistent and meak rankings.
“It should be noted that while he considers losing Mike Bell an issue for the Saints, he doesn’t so much as mention the fact that he is now an Eagle. Well which is Bell? Important enough to be worrisome in absence or not worth considering at all?”
Great point.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
“But of course, his yards from scrimmage will put him well over 1,000.”
But of course. For the first time since his rookie season.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
Hes saying that if Reggie has that many rushing yards
He will undoubtedly have a lot of receiving yards as well.
Yea, that's more of what I was getting at.
Not that he will obviously go over 1,000 from scrimmage no matter what, but that if he has a big year rushing for once, his average receiving yards would put him over 1,000 easily.
The Saints have to sign Pierre first
I voted no, but I won’t be butt hurt if one does rush for over 1k.
"We've got 27 ways to add up to 11 (players on the field). I came up with another one last night." -- Greg Williams
O line will be the key
If the O-line blocks like they did last season, then our RBs will have success. Payton put extra emphasis on developing good run blocking during last year’s training camp and it paid off big time. I don’t think he had done that in previous camps. He probably decided it was necessary after witnessing first hand the potent running games of teams like the 2008 Panthers when DeAngelo Williams was running all over everybody that year. There’s no reason to believe he won’t put the same emphasis on developing the running game this training camp. He’ll probably just add in some new wrinkles to keep opponents guessing. It also doesn’t hurt that our O line will remain intact from last year’s Super Bowl winning squad.
I don’t know if PT Cruiser and Reggie can stay healthy for enough games to amass 1,000 yards. I’d love to see them both do it, but I’m not sure how possible it is. Lynell Hamilton is about to get his long-awaited shot to make a name for himself. I hope he comes through and stays healthy because a three-headed rushing attack is probably going to be necessary again. If one RB has to carry the load for any amount of time due to injuries to the others, we may see the rushing effectiveness decline sharply.
"As soon as Tony (Dungy) said we had no chance, I knew we had 'em right where we wanted 'em"--Coach Sean Payton right after Super Bowl XLIV with the Lombardi Trophy firmly in hand. WHO DAT!!
by David "Satch" Kelly on Jun 2, 2010 10:15 AM CDT reply actions
Once again Satch steals my thunder
I don’t know if PT Cruiser and Reggie can stay healthy for enough games to amass 1,000 yards.
Since ‘06 have the Saints ever had a running back significantly contribute in all 16 games? I don’t think there is any way possible we have one, let alone two 1,000 yard rushers in ‘06 with Hamilton taking Bell’s place. Unless an UFA gets hot or we sign another workhorse back before Sept. 9th, simply having Mike Bell gone will not translate into more rushing yards for PT (IF he is signed…) or Reggie. The more these two are used, they more their chance for….the Madden curse to pop up. I can see that 654 yards of offense being divided fairly evenly between rushing and passing.
The Running Back position itself...
CarrIes an expectation of a game or two to be missed because of how brutal the position is…name 5 well-used running-backs that played all 16 games last year…
Don't worry I got your back cuz...
If anyone has a chance to hit 1,000
It’s PT. I voted no though because I think it will be more about total yardage and less about just rushing yardage. I think PT will get between 1,100-1,300 total yards which is perfect for this offense. It might be 800-900 yards rushing and 500 receiving. I would be very happy with that.
Peyton, I can eat Oreos faster than you!!!!
“I think PT will get between 1,100-1,300 total yards which is perfect for this offense.”
I’d be ok with that type of production out of any one player, but I have to be honest with you, I don’t get the whole “perfect for this offense” angle. Sure, we’re the top ranked offense in the league, but that doesn’t mean we can’t be even more efficient. Do you see where I’m going with that? For example, we totalled roughly 6500 yards from scrimmage last season. Don’t you think “perfect” would be a 50/50 run-pass split? Maybe moreso in attempts than yards, as you’re not going to turn a zebra into a leopard overnight. To outright say something is perfect for THIS offense is to imply that we’re perfectly content with the offense as is, and I’m most certainly not. Not when the pace of the offense is directly contributing to too-close-for-comfort games, because our defense can’t hold up its end of the bargain. If we were the Steel Curtain or something, I might not preach TOP quite as often as I do, but right now we’re far from that. Not trying to pick on you personally, I just see this sort of complacent attitude far too often, especially when talking about our offense. Rebuke the myth. A pass first offense does not equal dominance. A balanced (read: unpredictable) offensive attack + a solid (preferably opportunistic) defense equals dominance. To put it in a little bit better perspective, what if I said “4-5 sacks is perfect for a DE in this defense”? While that IS Charles Grant level production, It’s just silly within that context. You don’t want AS IS, you want BETTER. And as good as we are on the other side of the ball, the same should hold true for the offense.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
You make a lot of valid points as usual CP, however, i can’t help but feel a 50/50 run-pass split would be a mistake with our team based purely on personnel. When you have unarguably a top 5 QB you don’t bury him, especially when that QB is perhaps the most efficient QB in the league. If you look around the league at the teams with the top QBs – Saints, Pats, Vikes, Colts, Green Bay, all of them show a propensity for passing.
I do, however, completely agree that our renewed commitment to the running game last year was one of the main reasons we won it all. Balance is indeed key, however, for this team balance is not a 50/50 split. Our run/pass ratio last year was pretty much where i think we need to be given our personnel. With Marques and Shockey, Meachem, Devery, Henderson and Bush/Pierre out of the backfield, our mismatches exist in the passing game, which is why we exploit it.
“Our run/pass ratio last year was pretty much where i think we need to be given our personnel.”
It was closer to 50/50 than it has been, but not close enough, imo. Not when “given our personnel” is applied to the entire team, as opposed to just the offense.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
Agree 100%
Passing more than running plays to the strengths of this Saints team. A 50/50 split of rushing and passing would only be “perfect” if the team was equally effective running the ball as they were passing it. That isn’t the case with any team in this league. The Saints passing game is superior to the running game, and thus, should be used more. That’s not to say we shouldn’t run the ball to keep the defenses honest, but a 50/50 split for this team would be a dumb move.
"I want to hand this trophy to the MVP of the Super Bowl -- and the MVP of the entire league.''
-- Saints coach Sean Payton, handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Drew Brees after Super Bowl 44.
“A 50/50 split of rushing and passing would only be "perfect" if the team was equally effective running the ball as they were passing it.”
Define “equally effective”. You’re never going to get as many yards per carry as you do yards per pass. All you need to average is 3.4 yards per touch — be it run OR pass — to move the sticks in three tries. That’s barring penalties, which are pretty much inevitable.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
My definition of equally effective
would be averaging the same production per pass attempt as you do per run attempt. Drew Brees averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt last year. When you compare that to 4.5 yards per run, I’d lean more towards the passing game too.
"I want to hand this trophy to the MVP of the Super Bowl -- and the MVP of the entire league.''
-- Saints coach Sean Payton, handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Drew Brees after Super Bowl 44.
Given your definition, I would rather average 4.5 yards per play. It’s more than enough to move the sticks and (over the course of an entire game) leaves less cumulative time on the clock for our opponent to match our scoring output (whatever that may be).
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
What's the point?
You put together a 15 play, 10 minute drive, for a TD and the opponent puts together a 3 play, 2 minute drive for a TD and still, you both only have 7 points. Next drive you put together a 17 play, 13 minute drive and get stopped at the goal line and kick a FG only to have your opponent put together another 2 minute drive for a TD. You are winning the Time of Possession battle, but still losing the game. T.O.P is the most overrated stat in football. It is a symptom of winning, not a cause.
"I want to hand this trophy to the MVP of the Super Bowl -- and the MVP of the entire league.''
-- Saints coach Sean Payton, handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Drew Brees after Super Bowl 44.
by VAsaintsfan on Jun 2, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You’re losing the game because you kicked a FG instead of scoring a TD. What does that have to do with TOP? You also only accounted for 27 minutes of a 60 minute game. If you extrapolate that same 23:4 advantage over the final 33 minutes, you’ve effectively eaten up 51 minutes of a 60 minute game. Sure, the game could still wind up tied, but if the team that’s averaging 2 minute drives fails even once, they’re screwed. If the team controlling the clock fails, it’s not as big a problem, because they can easily split one of their normally 10-13 minute drives in half and still be afforded a manageable opportunity at points. They can even do this without a defensive stop, if they happen to score last in the first half and first in the second.
“It is a symptom of winning, not a cause.”
There’s a direct parallel between the two. Look at it however you wish.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
Miami vs. Indy. Miami won the TOP battle but lost the game because the colts could put drives together that got in the endzone. Winning TOP does not equate to winning a game. Also, it is not a symptom of winning a game. Winning TOP is part of giving your team a better CHANCE at winning the game, just like yards. At the end of the day, you could hold the ball for 9 minutes, have 100 yards total offense, and still win.
"Hey, the offensive linemen are the biggest guys on the field, they're bigger than everybody else, and that's what makes them the biggest guys on the field."-John Madden
Oh, and only 1 team (San Diego at 3.3) didn’t average over 3.4 yards per carry last year, so it isn’t that simple. If it were, then the Rams (averaging 4.3 yards per rushing attempt) would have had a much better season.
"I want to hand this trophy to the MVP of the Super Bowl -- and the MVP of the entire league.''
-- Saints coach Sean Payton, handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Drew Brees after Super Bowl 44.
If you’re moving the sticks either way, you lean towards the run. What’s not that simple about it? The Rams were without their starting QB and have a pathetic defense. Also, a team can theoretically average 9.9 yards per carry and still suck, if they’re only running one time per series. I’m not saying it’s the end all, be all. I’m saying that, IF you’re moving the sticks by virtue of a relatively balanced attack, it would behoove any team to rely more on the run than on the pass. Not entirely, just moreso.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
no it wouldn’t. if you run more than you pass, teams will stack the box, and your ypc will eventually lessen to a point where it doesn’t make sense to run the ball at all. at that point you will say we should just pass the ball, because we have such a high yards per catch. neither are a good idea. what we did last year, having a pretty balanced attack, while still using our obvious strength more often, clearly worked. while we do need to keep running, with the players we have, its still a better idea to pass more than we run
"Hey, the offensive linemen are the biggest guys on the field, they're bigger than everybody else, and that's what makes them the biggest guys on the field."-John Madden
I say it would be perfect because of the way we spread the ball around.
I think at the end of last season, going in to the playoffs, our team was fresher than other teams. We spread the ball around so evenly and efficiently, that at the end of the season all our guys still had fresh legs. Even Reggie got through a season relatively injury free. I think that paid off big time in the playoffs. Spread the ball around evenly and if PT gets 1,200 yards, that would be extremely efficient for the number of touches a game that he gets
Peyton, I can eat Oreos faster than you!!!!
going 13-0
resting players the last 3
What wonderful little gifts April Fools Day brings.
~D's Pappy
Baby steps
Reggie hasn’t completely figured out the north-south thing. He’s getting there, but 1,00 yards rushing is a little out of the question. I think Hamilton will fill in nicely for Bell AND bring the right shoes to each game as an added bonus. My big worry is PT and the whole money issue. If he isn’t satisfied by gametime, is he going to give it everything he’s got?
Who dat, from a cajun exiled to cowboy country.
by alcoholic_insight on Jun 2, 2010 11:24 AM CDT reply actions
of course he will. lets say he signs his tender, no long-term deal gets done. so, he’s signed for one year, meaning he’s in a contract year. players seem to always step up their play in a contract year(actually, that may get him to get over 1000). Then he either walks or resigns, and you know he’s going to get more in that case
"Hey, the offensive linemen are the biggest guys on the field, they're bigger than everybody else, and that's what makes them the biggest guys on the field."-John Madden
Of course he'll give everything he's got.
He’s a professional…it’s a professional football league. If you don’t give everything you got, regardless of talent, you wind up receiving the disdain and mistrust of all your fellow players, or looking for a job like Jamarcus.
i dont think reggie will get a 1000 on the ground either
but he was recovering from microfracture surgery, and i think he will get more touches than he did last year.
AMBUSH!!
by DrewBreesManCrush on Jun 2, 2010 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions
I disagree on Reggie
He has figured out the North-South thing the right amount to suit his abilities. The entire second half of the season that was his general direction. But his jukes are effective and if he soley runs N-S his runs like the one in the Cardinals game and others would be eliminated.
Excellent. Then we wouldn’t be kicking the ball back to our opponents as frequently.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
Points are still important. Even if they aren't as important as TOP
This is the wrong team at the wrong time to switch to a grind it out run first, 3 and out lockdown D.
I don’t remember saying anything about surrendering points.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
And so can your opponents. Points scored doesn’t matter, only net points scored. You can score 45 points and still lose a game. Show me a team that’s lost a game with +1 net points scored.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
No but we are better at scoring than any other team
so they theoretically couldn’t catch up to us. I’m not advocating pure passing. I like our balanc last year and don’t see the need to change it more toward running
And there’s no such thing as the wrong team or the wrong time, when it comes to the things you just mentioned. Again, it’s just not what you’re accustomed to seeing from these players. Look at the 1978 Patriots. Sam Cunningham, Andy Johnson, Horace Ivory, Don Calhoun, Steve Grogan, Stanley Morgan, Harold Jackson, Russ Francis … none of those guys were anything terribly special within their own era, yet they achieved almost perfect offensive balance. That at a yardage level, not just number of attempts. There’s nothing to suggest that we couldn’t do the same … or at least move even further towards that level of unpredictability … with the proper playcalling. Now, stop focusing on offense. Look over their defense. Tell me it looks like a top ten unit. It’s not. No way, no how. But that’s exactly what they achieved, by virtue of balance and (presumably) TOP.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
Well we have special players
so why waste their talent and out money if we aren’t going to use them. Yes if you were starting a team from scratch, that is a very good way to model it. But we aren’t, we have an advanced passing system and personal and solid more than effective running game. The Defense is not as established, so it could be molded differently easier. With Sharper here only another year or so and young CBs we could focus on 3 and outs more than turnovers, but we play the aggresive style well enough that I am slightly hesitant to differ from that. Plus it is a lot more fun to watch as we play now.
“Plus it is a lot more fun to watch as we play now.”
Subjective. I get off on methodical dismantlings.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
Haha
much like the definition of San Diego. Is it named after a saint or a whale’s v***** (didn’t know if that word was ok). We’re just going to have to agree to disagree. Haha.
Scenario for you
If you honestly say that there is no “wrong team or wrong time” to go for a 50/50 split in running/passing, let me ask you about last year’s Titans vs. Raiders. Assume Vince Young isn’t available and Kerry Collins lobbing up interceptions is the only passing option. Oakland’s defense is noticably better at pass coverage than run defense. Very much so in fact. Should Tennessee continue to let Collins throw against an above average pass defense, or start leaning more towards their strong suit and let Chris Johnson run against a weak run defense?
"I want to hand this trophy to the MVP of the Super Bowl -- and the MVP of the entire league.''
-- Saints coach Sean Payton, handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Drew Brees after Super Bowl 44.
Good point. I should have specified “as long as both facets of the game are moving the sticks”. If Collins is throwing picks, that presumably wouldn’t be the case. There’s nothing to suggest that the Saints can’t move the sticks rushing, though. They average over 3.4. That’s all it takes. 2.5 per snap, if you want to get technical about it.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
My observation of the Saints O
is that they thrive on constantly changing their looks. They will do their best to personnel and formation you to death, in an attempt to create as many mismatches as possible. This practice works amazingly well in the passing game as we’ve all witnessed, but sometimes I feel as though this style can be a detriment to establishing the running game. There seemed to be a rededication to running this past season, so it will be interesting to see if that prevails again this coming year.
I vote no on a 1K rusher, but if I had to pick one, it would probably be PT because I feel he’s likely to get the most touches. Reggie will have over 1000 all-purpose yards, but that’s what he is.
It is a Saints touchdown! Seventy yards on the return! Seventy yards on the return by Porter! He did it to Favre and now he's done it to Manning!
Agree less than 2k and split among three guys… if only because I dont think any of the backs would be able to carry a bigger load and still have an injury free season… The committee worked ok, Hamilton and/or PJ will fill Bell’s shoes (cleats…).
Anything different is an accident waiting to happen
You are my people, you are my crowd, this is our music, we love it loud...
Last word on this topic, because it’s always like beating a dead horse. Most people would have cringed at the thought of 46/54 when we were at 38/62. We recorded three more wins in 2010, due to that improvement. Obviously, the takeaways helped immensely as well. Odds are 40+ turnovers aren’t going to be in the cards this season. That being said, why not push the envelope even further with our running game? It’s something we have far more control over, than say hoping Adrian Peterson botches a handoff, or praying that the Chesapeake wind god pushes a Redskin FG wide right. Enough flying by the seat of our pants. It’s time to forge our OWN destiny this season.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
We don’t push the envelope further with our running game because we have an offensive line that’s one of the best in the league at pass blocking at mediocre at run blocking. Combine that with a score of running backs who historically have never held up well under heavier loads and it basically leads to the adage of “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it.”
Again, you make valid points, but i have to go back to the fact that we don’t have the offensive personnel to accomplish it. You say we need to be more balanced to control the clock and therefore alleviate stress from our defense. But a bevy of 3 and outs and short non-scoring drives put more pressure on our D than if we score a TD off a 3 minute drive.
hands you a bat for the dead horse
by jeff.l.b on Jun 2, 2010 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
While I agree that they’re better at pass blocking than run blocking, I think they’re at least effective enough to maintain a run-first attack. Again, aside from John Hannah, who did the ‘78 Patriots have along their OL? He was the best guard in the NFL at the time. We have that in Evans. Three backs with ~700 rushing yards a piece seems well within the realm of reason, imo. Expecting O.J. Simpson and the Electric Company overnight isn’t, but we don’t have a RB of that caliber anyway. Maybe if we didn’t have a stable full of Fragile Freddies, we could aim even higher.
"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper
if anyone is going to get it...it'd be PT in my mind
Reggie didn’t get enough touches last year to get 1000 yards rushing really. I think if they split the carries 50/50 then either RB can get the 1k yards but you also have to think of the 3rd RB playing some too. I think that as long as Reggie and PT don’t get banged up they should consistently be our RBs without a 3rd one playing very much. They both need to stay healthy for that to happen first.
Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!
I can`t see anyone going 1k this year.
We only have one superstar (stats wise) on our team and that`s #9.
I agree with CP that a balanced offence is crucial to our success but we have so
many facets that not one player(besides#9) will head any lists. And that`s fine by
me so long as we win. Steve Jackson and Chris Johnson had great personal
seasons last year but played on a losing team and one that finished 8-8.
The history of this game is littered with great players playing on poor teams or
un-successful teams, if that is less insulting.
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