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Saints Predict-A-Poll: The Passing Game

We've already covered the future of the Saints running and receiving games in our Predict-A-Poll series of posts so it's only natural to discuss passing as well. Obviously when we talk about what's in store for the Saints passing game next season, we're really talking about one man and his possible accomplishments: Drew Brees

Drew is the driving force behind the Saints offense. The heart and soul. The beginning and the end. The toad and the wet sprocket. As Brees goes, so go the Saints. Fortunately, he's put up superb numbers his entire time in New Orleans with no signs of slowing down. 

So today I'm asking: What kind of numbers will Drew put up next season? Will he once again complete more than 70% of his passes? Will his passer rating exceed 100.0? How many interceptions will he throw?  Or will he succumb to the curse of the Madden cover?

For easy reference and to help you prognosticate, here are Drew's stats from the last four years:

Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Yds/Att Long TD Int Sacks Sk Yds Rating
2006 356 554 64.3 4418 8.0 86 26 11 18 105 96.3
2007 440 652 67.5 4423 6.8 58 28 18 16 109 89.4
2008 413 635 65.0 5069 8.0 84 34 17 13 92 96.3
2009 363 514 70.6 4388 8.5 75 34 11 20 135 109.6

Remember, the purpose of this series of posts will be to record everyone's predictions about the 2010 Saints season, with each post covering a specific topic. While this specific post may be discussing the performance of Drew Brees in particular, feel free to elaborate and go into detail about any and all of your prognostications regarding the Saints passing game next season or the performance of any other quarterback on the roster. After the season, we will go back to this post and others like it for a good laugh or a pat on the back.

Poll
How many touchdowns will Drew Brees throw next season?
More than 20
6 votes
More than 25
61 votes
More than 30
335 votes
More than 35
229 votes
More than 40
66 votes
More than 45
32 votes

729 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 30 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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The toad and the wet sprocket?

Love it, Dave!! I think Drew will pass for more than 30 TDs, but I’m not sure about the QB rating and completion percentage. I think he’s more likely to achive the 100+ rating than the completion percentage. Looking at the schedule, I think they will be facing some better or improved defenses over the course of the regular season this year than they did last year.

"The Saints made the right decision signing Drew Brees-not just in terms of his arm, but because of his heart and mind." - Marshall Faulk

by SaintsFanMD on Jul 1, 2010 6:41 AM CDT reply actions  

two years ago...

he almost breaks the single season yards record and then last year he breaks the completion percentage record, maybe this year he’ll go for the TD record!!

by bannor d on Jul 1, 2010 7:21 AM CDT reply actions  

I’m going with 35+. A slight digression in the running game, coupled with more efficient opposing offenses than last season, should push Brees to keep pace. I think Meachem’s role will continue to increase. His YPC will inevitably lead to less TOP per drive, and quite possibly a few more offensive possessions over the course of the season. Also, the addition of Jimmy Graham may also skew the pass/run ratio in the red zone even further towards the former. Outside of injury, there’s truly nothing to suggest that Brees’ TD numbers will diminish.

"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper

by coldpizza on Jul 1, 2010 8:03 AM CDT reply actions  

LMAO

Why is it that Peyton Manning wins the league MVP every year but Brees is setting all the records and winning the SB ?? Seems like somethings afoul somewhere here , what do you folk have to say ? Don’t you think Brees out plays Manning , he just beat him in the SB and remember , Manning has (1) SB win for 12 years of playing on the same team !

by saints since 67 on Jul 1, 2010 8:08 AM CDT reply actions  

The league MVP is announced prior to the SB. The two teams had identical records going in and Manning had comparable statistics. I don’t think it was that much of a stretch, considering his reputation as one of the league’s elite QBs. With a SB ring on his finger, I would think Brees gains stronger consideration this time around, assuming all things are relatively equal again otherwise. To be perfectly honest, I would have probably voted Chris Johnson over either one of them in ‘09. Primarily because I feel a solid running game is more important to a team’s success, than an elite QB. Both help each other tremendously, obviously.

"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper

by coldpizza on Jul 1, 2010 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

i would've voted for CJ too.

not because i think a running game is more important but because he had the best year out of all of them statistically speaking on a team that had no passing game untill VY came back and it still wasn’t spectacular after he came back. Teams went to stop the run and he still had lots of yards. Plus, unless i’m mistaken, then CJ broke the total yards from scrimmage record. If i’m mistaken then he was ridiculously close. He should’ve been MVP easy and Brees the year before him for his 5000 yard+ season.

Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!

by skinnykinney on Jul 1, 2010 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

I noticed that Manning is on the Wheaties box!

There are also four other “personalities” currently on Wheaties. A basketball player, a baseball player, plus a couple of triathalon and decathlon dudes. I think those Russian spies are mixed up in this somehow. I’m sure of it.

Fat, dumb, and happy. Hell, two out of three ain't bad!

I Want To Die In My Sleep Like My Grandpa – Not Screaming and Yelling Like His Passengers.

by Just 'Nother Day on Jul 1, 2010 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would agree

and also add that Brees does not get the media attention that Manning does. During the season how many times during a non Colts game do you see him on commercials and other media outlets. Doesn’t make it right or wrong, just that with comparable stats, his exposure ma have a little effect on the voting too. Just a thought.

by benbp on Jul 1, 2010 11:14 AM CDT reply actions  

It's inconceivable to think

that Brees will again reach his 70% completion percentage or the 8.5 YPA which is an incredible number. Now i have to think Brees plays all 16 games unlike last year. His attempts last year were the lowest in his tenure at N.O. and barring injury to our running game that number will probably stay about the same.

Additionally if our defense does improve, we’ll obviously rely less on our passing game late due to our propensity to put points up on the board and hopefully sustain a lead. I’d look for something in the range of 66% completion 4400 yards, 35 TDs 12 picks with an overall QB rating however right around the century mark.

by jeff.l.b on Jul 1, 2010 11:31 AM CDT reply actions  

Predictions

4500+ yds,
97+ QB rating,
32+ TD’s,
66+ comp%,
550+ att

Overall, the passing game will be AWESOME.

by jray2000 on Jul 1, 2010 11:53 AM CDT reply actions  

30-34.......

I was suprized to see my poll choice match the poll ? Coming of the big win Saints fans are quite conservative . It can’t be schedule . It is quite favorable as a whole . Signings . Not really the Brown trade balances out the losses . Off the field issues . Why ? Unless Saint’s fans know what the sanctions will be for the legal issues . Suspensions ? Doubt it . Why the lack of confidence ? Brees is set to exceed expectations . Why the gothic view ????

by gothicpurple on Jul 1, 2010 12:39 PM CDT reply actions  

We had 42 years to get used to disappointment. One year of joy doesn’t cancel all that out overnight.

by FriarBob on Jul 1, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

i like to call it being reasonable.

but if you want us to show extra enthusiam i’ll predict Brees has 68 TD passes this season. Double what he got last year since we won the SB :D

Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!

by skinnykinney on Jul 1, 2010 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

140% completion ratio?

"We've got 27 ways to add up to 11 (players on the field). I came up with another one last night." -- Greg Williams

by DrWhoDat on Jul 2, 2010 7:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

With Breesus all things are possible.

"I was not on the boat in question." -Darren Sharper

by coldpizza on Jul 2, 2010 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

Is that reverse physcology GP?

Seriously we`re up against some blitz-happy teams this year… the Steelers and Ravens
gave us a whole lot of problems in 2006 and will probably run on us a fair bit so
TOP will factor there. Also going to Dallas on thanksgiving won`t be easy plus a fired
up Vikings team 1st up will be coming hard….
Onthe flip side we play the Browns and Rams which (in theory) should pad the stats
so I`ll say 30+ with a mid eighties rating

Where next?

by saint_chew on Jul 1, 2010 1:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Mid 80s? Ouch. That would be the pairing of about a 62 completion percentage and 20 pics to go with the 30+ TDs. Let’s hope we don’t turn the ball over that much.

by jeff.l.b on Jul 1, 2010 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Crikey

Hats off to your calculations. To be honest I have no idea how these
rating numbers are worked out , maybe I should have stuck at 30+ TD`s
and paid more attention to algebra all those years ago.

Where next?

by saint_chew on Jul 1, 2010 3:58 PM CDT reply actions  

I say between 25 and 30 TDs, right around 4000 yards and 65% completion

we’ll have one receiver go over 1000 yards receiving, two more get at least 800 yards, one RB going over 1000 yards rushing, and two more get at least 500.

Anyone else want a sip?

We've got 27 ways to add up to 11 (players on the field). I came up with another one last night. -- GW

by Hans Petersen on Jul 1, 2010 4:10 PM CDT reply actions  

a sip of the rushing game kool-aid, I mean

We've got 27 ways to add up to 11 (players on the field). I came up with another one last night. -- GW

by Hans Petersen on Jul 1, 2010 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Still no mention of PJ. Duly noted.

War, it ain't nothing but a heartbreaker
War, it's got one friend
That's the undertaker

by stujo4 on Jul 1, 2010 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

PJ will rush for at least 500 yards. All this of course will be done in camp and the preseason as he rushes from the water cooler to various areas of the bench helping clean up discarded and used towels.

by jeff.l.b on Jul 1, 2010 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

lol

Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!

by skinnykinney on Jul 1, 2010 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

thanks, Stu. Duly acknowledged that you duly noted it.

We've got 27 ways to add up to 11 (players on the field). I came up with another one last night. -- GW

by Hans Petersen on Jul 1, 2010 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

i voted for 35+

i think the loss of Bell has a possibility of hurting our running game especially since Payton didnt use Bush to run the ball very much last season. Bell also didn’t have very many catches out of the backfield(at least that i can remember) so that has a possibility to mean more swing passes and screens to Bush/PT. I’m saying 38 TDs, 4700 yards, 68.5% completion rate, 13 or less Ints, and a QB rating over 99. I’m fairly optimistic and don’t see a reason why his #s would drop. I can only see things changing if there are injuries to the RBs or important defensive players.

Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!

by skinnykinney on Jul 1, 2010 5:57 PM CDT reply actions  

Voted 35+

I’ll go with 37 on TD passes and 4,400yds for Drew. His QB rating will be hovering near the century mark, a tick above or below with his 10-13 interceptions.

My belief is that Reggie will get a lot more looks in the passing game this year along with Pierre and the screen plays he does so well with.

GEAUX S88S!! Konichiwa!!

by s88fan on Jul 1, 2010 9:52 PM CDT reply actions  

30+

I’ll say 34 TD’s
69% completion rate
101 rating
4200 yards (I see alot more running plays in the 4th qtr.)

I think we will have only 1 WR over 1,000 yards, Colston.

by Ponysaints on Jul 2, 2010 12:54 PM CDT reply actions  

35+ sounds about right

I see even more TD passes to our RBBC and tight ends this year. Last year was the first time I think I ever heard an announcer say that the Saints did a good job with screen passes. I expect much more of those this year.

"Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake." -- Napoleon Bonaparte

by Cajun in CA on Jul 4, 2010 3:40 PM CDT reply actions  

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