New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers: What to Watch
by Dave Cariello on Sep 16, 2010 6:00 AM CDT
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PrintI suppose it's time to make that transition from putting last weeks game behind us to looking forward at the Saints next challenge, that being the San Francisco 49ers. For some reason I still can't believe we're watching real football...again. Even though I witnessed the league-opening game with my own eyes last Thursday night, it still hasn't really hit me. And this year is even weirder, what with the Super Bowl championship to defend and all.
So what can we expect to see on Monday night when the Saints and Niners kick off? Make the jump and find out. And don't forget to add your own or talk about mine in the comment section.
Avoiding the Trap
The 49ers, though talented, appear to be in a state of disarray and while the Saints are the better team, it would be foolish for them to get too cocky. They should whole-heartedly expect a fired-up San Francisco team looking to get back on track by making a statement at home and on national television against the reigning Super Bowl champions. An inexperienced team might get caught by surprise; an experienced team will be prepared for everything.
Shake, Rattle and Win
Last week Gregg Williams and the Saints pass rush went easy on Brett Favre, much to the surprise of many. This week they're facing an unproven quarterback and an offense with communication problems so what better time to unleash the fury and all but guarantee that offense to be ineffective? If the Saints can really rattle Alex Smith, mistakes will assuredly follow and the Niners will be left one-dimensional with Frank Gore.
Pass the Night Away
The weakest aspect of the Niners defense is their secondary, which means Brees and company match up quite nicely. Expect Sean Payton to use the early part of the game as a chance to scout San Fran's defense and check how they handle certain looks; then exploit what he sees and take advantage of the matchups he likes. I'm penciling Drew in for a big night this week.
Keeping Drew Clean
In order for Drew to work his aforementioned magic, he needs to feel safe and warm inside that pocket, like a baby in the womb, with no worry of the big bad men trying to rip his head off. And for that to happen, the offensive line, tight ends and running backs all need to bring their 'A' game. San Francisco has a good defense, particularly it's front seven. Most importantly, linebacker Patrick Willis needs to always be accounted for when he's out on that field.
Players to Watch
Reggie Bush - The (former?) Heisman Trophy winner has already been playing at a higher level more consistently than we're accustomed but following the most recent fallout from the USC sanctions - Bush's forfeiture of his Heisman Trophy - and the media firestorm it has created, I fully expect Reggie to play like a man on fire. Lock your doors, kids.
Garrett Hartley - All eyes will be on the 'fat, punk kicker' during any and all field goal attempts Monday night. Last week's two misses might not mean time to panic but another performance like that this week certainly might. Hartley needs a big game to restore some confidence in himself and with fans.
Malcolm Jenkins - He's got at least another five games as the starting free safety for the Saints defense and if he wants to keep that spot even after Darren Sharper's return, he needs to really prove himself in that time. Jenkins showed flashes of brilliance last week, in particular the near interception he almost made while running halfway across the field. I would really make me feel better to see a good game from Jenkins this week.
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I wonder
Just how long will the NFLPA allow for teams to cut players then resign them later, so they won’t have to pay a roster bonus(is this the norm now?). Or will players(agents) eventually wisen up and negotiate contracts without this silly bonus (which seemingly only get players cut and later resigned?)
you know, when you want something, and nobody can stop you from taking it, you just take it, right? I like that, but can you take it?
No offense intended
It’s a good question, but what does this have to do with Dave’s post? It could be a subject you might want to address in a fanpost, because I know there will be quite a few people with opinions!
"It's about time that something good like this happened." - Drew Brees
Actually, I wouldn’t go that far. There are LOTS of players who get roster bonuses every year. Before you write the fan-post that SFMD suggests above, I’d recommend you do some research for some hard facts first. I have none to back me up at the moment, but off the top of my head I’d be pretty surprised if there aren’t 10 or more players who get their roster bonuses quietly without fuss or bother for every one who gets cut to avoid it.
I voted Saints D vs 49rs rushing
for the very reason that Dave outlined. I expect that GW will pressure Smith, forcing them to turn to the running game. I hope we are prepared to stop it!
"It's about time that something good like this happened." - Drew Brees
Run stopping?
Does anyone really think the 49ers’ run game, at its best, can keep up with the Saints’ aerial attack? The most important matchup is the 49ers’ secondary vs. Drew Brees. If Brees is hot—and the receivers hold onto the ball this time—as Darren Sharper likes to say, “game, set, and match.”
It was worth the wait.
by MtnExile on Sep 16, 2010 6:55 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
If Gore and the O-line play to their capability…yes…they’re easily able to keep up with us as well as play a slower paced game wearing out our defense and keeping theirs fresh to run with Brees and our receivers all day long.
Would you like to try again?
Last year, New Orleans passed for 34 touchdowns. San Francisco rushed for 12. Do you really think the Niners can match their rush game against our passing game? Or were you just trying to be provocative?
It was worth the wait.
Now you’re talking about something completely different. You were talking about the 49ers running game at their best. At their best, that 49ers run game can put up 250 yards on 3 scores. Last i looked….that would have beaten our offensive point total last game. You’re were talking a bubble scenario and then suddenly expanded it over an entire season. I was simply speaking the truth. At their absolute best you’re damn right the 49ers run game can hang. Will they be at their best…undoubtedly not, as you’re talking a one in a year or more scenario.
Okay, let’s take a look at the 49ers’ best. Last year, for example: Frank Gore, 16 carries, 207 yards, 2 TDs. Niners beat (ironically) the Seahawks, 23-10. Or, if you want a heavier workload: 25 carries, 167 yards, 1 TD against the Cardinals. Niners win, 24-9. The Saints, on the other hand, averaged almost 32 points per game.
If the Niners have an outstanding (for them) game, and the Saints play to their average, we win 32-24.
What would have to happen in order for the Niners to keep up with us is not only that they play their best game, but also that we play badly. The Niners are not good enough to take control of a game with their rushing alone. If Drew is having a particularly good game, in fact, we’ll beat them by 2 or 3 scores regardless of how well Gore runs.
It was worth the wait.
I’m not arguing that. What is annoying me is that fact that people are acting like it’s impossible for the 49ers to play a good game at home and for us to lay an egg coming off an incredibly emotional and draining game. Not to mention that everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that we don’t pressure the QB without blitzing and the best offensive weapon outside of Frank Gore is Vernon Davis for SF. We don’t currently have any linebackers on the roster capable of keeping up with Vernon…period.
Do i think the Saints will win this game? Absolutely. But it’s the blase’ attitude of people around here have toward this game that is disturbing. Sooner or later people need to stop slapping themselves on the back for what the team did last year and start realizing that no game is a “gimme”.
I appreciate what you’re arguing…but what I’m arguing is that it will take more than a good ground game for the 49ers to win the game. If they play to the limits of their abilities, and we play to the limits of our offensive capabilities, the 49ers WILL lose.
Therefore, whether or not they have a good running game is not the greatest factor in determining the outcome: it’s whether or not we have a good passing game. Therefore, the most important matchup is their secondary vs. our passing game. They can run roughshod all game and collect 21 points, while we pass all over them all night and collect 38.
It was worth the wait.
When was the last time one NFL team ran roughshod all game and still allowed enough time on the clock for their opponent to rack up 38 points PERIOD (be it by the air or the ground)? A 17 point win indicates at least a couple of defensive stops by the victor. If a team is running the ball THAT successfully, there simply would be no opportunity for that sort of scoring separation. The scenario you’re describing is a logistical fallacy.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
“Does anyone really think the 49ers’ run game, at its best, can keep up with the Saints’ aerial attack?”
Also, nowhere in your initial statement does it mention the Saints’ aerial attack at its best. You merely specified that for San Francisco. There’s no guarantee that the Saints will play to their potential on offense. They didn’t last week, nor on a number of occasions throughout the Payton era.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
“Okay, let’s take a look at the 49ers’ best. Last year, for example: Frank Gore, 16 carries, 207 yards, 2 TDs. Niners beat (ironically) the Seahawks, 23-10. Or, if you want a heavier workload: 25 carries, 167 yards, 1 TD against the Cardinals. Niners win, 24-9. The Saints, on the other hand, averaged almost 32 points per game.”
The Seahawks and the Cardinals both ran the ball more frequently than the Saints did last season. Further, the Saints didn’t average almost 32 points per game versus teams playing the equivalent of the 49ers at their best via the ground. Had the 49ers played the Saints, they would have been allowed more offensive possessions, thereby increasing the likelihood of a higher scoring total.
Not to mention the fact that not all run heavy drives in rushing TDs. There’s also Vernon Davis’s red zone production to consider, as well as Joe Nedney’s FGs.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
heavy drives end in rushing TDs.
Arguably the best rushing team the Saints faced all last season was the Jets. In that game, the Saints scored 0 points via their passing game, while the Jets score 6 via the ground. That in a game in which the Jets only rushed for 132 yds. As you already pointed out, the 49ers are capable of better than that, both in yardage and in points. Granted, this year’s 49ers defense probably doesn’t stack up to last year’s Jets team, but from what I gather, we’re only talking offense … 49ers at their best, versus Saints on any given week.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
“The Niners are not good enough to take control of a game with their rushing alone.”
“Last year, for example: Frank Gore, 16 carries, 207 yards, 2 TDs. Niners beat (ironically) the Seahawks, 23-10. Or, if you want a heavier workload: 25 carries, 167 yards, 1 TD against the Cardinals. Niners win, 24-9.”
You appear to have contradicted yourself. They took control of both of the games you mentioned and won. Not by rushing alone obviously, just as the Saints are no better than an 8-8 team when all they do is pass. Also, there’s no irony in a strong running game resulting in a win. It’s what is typically expected.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
Does anyone really think the 49ers’ run game, at its best, can keep up with the Saints’ aerial attack?
I’d like to know why people keep saying this about the PANTERS run game. It’s the NFL in 2010. You have to be able to pass. And Little Jimmy ain’t ready yet. 49rs: Alex Smith may NEVER be ready.
Because it's custom made for any mother's son
To be a guitar picker in Nashville
I voted
“Saints pass rush vs. 49ers defensive line” … that’s a matchup even the coaches are overlooking.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
I certainly never thought about that
I hope that Patrick Willis doesn’t take out Will Smith!
by BlackandGold4ever on Sep 16, 2010 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions
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by Dave Cariello on Sep 16, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Their secondary is inexperienced and banged up
Agree with Dave – Drew will be on fire
You are my people, you are my crowd, this is our music, we love it loud...
Isn't that what we said against the Vikes last Thursday?
"It's about time something good like this happened." Drew Brees
by saints_r_us#9 on Sep 16, 2010 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
BOOM rec'd it
I am still disappointed over Lito’s exceptionally almost competent performance.
Because it's custom made for any mother's son
To be a guitar picker in Nashville
Embarrassed 49'ers
One game doesn’t always define a team. Hope this time it does, but they know they can get well with a big prime-time upset. Know the Saints will invevitably have a let-down sometime in the season, but now is not a good time. Really and truly, the Saints have more weapons and should prevail.
"Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds" -Bob Marley
by PanheadCatahoula on Sep 16, 2010 9:31 AM CDT reply actions
Heck, I don’t care if it defines a team, I am just hoping it defines them for one more week.
by theprogrammerman on Sep 16, 2010 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions
On this year being weird
Yeah, it is weird. I feel it too. But, it’s a weirdness I can definitely get used to. :)
I voted “Saints coaching v. 49ers coaching” because all of the above can be summed up with that one. Payton will find a way to contain their pass rush and thereby give Breesus enough time to connect downfield with his receivers. Could Lance Moore be in for a big game? Drew tweeted this to him yesterday:
drewbrees @LanceMoore16 Get some rest, bro. You have lots of balls to catch this week
It’s probably nothing and Drew would never publicly discuss aspects of their game plan, but it’s pretty safe to assume that passing the ball will figure in heavily. The 49ers must know that already. Their only hope to stop it is to find ways to pressure Drew with their front seven.
The biggest thing I’ll be watching is how well our own front seven contains Gore. I want to think they’ve turned the corner since last year and have improved their run defense. I want to think that. I really do. Big Sed looks better and reports are that Remi Ayodelle really impressed the coaching staff this offseason by improving his own play. Alex Brown seems like an upgrade over Grant as well.
"As soon as Tony (Dungy) said we had no chance, I knew we had 'em right where we wanted 'em"--Coach Sean Payton right after Super Bowl XLIV with the Lombardi Trophy firmly in hand. WHO DAT!!
by David "Satch" Kelly on Sep 16, 2010 9:42 AM CDT reply actions
Been over at the Niners site.
Seems they have two rookie O line men and back up center. GW must be grin’n so hard it hurts. Weak secondary. I think what is the big X factor here is the Saints have ten days off to prepare. Last year the teams that played the saints after a bye paid the price. First Pats. Second Cards. Next . Vikes. And finally the unbeatable Colts. Now I’m grin’n so hard it hurts! Who dat ? !!
by saints-fan-in-miss on Sep 16, 2010 9:47 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Call me crazy...
But Frank Gore scares me more than Adrian Petersen does. It seems we’ve been able to limit AP’s production when we face him. Allthough, Gore had a 5.1/carry average last time we saw them with 80 something yards. Similar to AP in the season opener. They most likely abandonded the run when they fell behind – something I still don’t understand with the Vikes. Why did they quit running AP with only 5 points separating the teams.
Football is, after all, a wonderful way to get rid of your aggressions without going to jail for it. ~Heywood Hale Brown
Still don't understand Vikes giving up the passing game.
Favre was just starting to get the ball to his recievers. Saints seem to have trouble stopping a good running back for a quarter or so then adjust pretty well. Gore can tear ya a new one if not. Don’t think in the end it will happen. Remember the Dolphins game last year. Ricky williams was an animal in first half. GW made some adjustments , the rest is history. The Niners Offense seemed to be confused and slow to get a play off. This against a team they play twice a year! What will they do against a Saints team they should be very leary of . Think Saints go up early and force them to pass. If this happens game over. IMO having said all this Saints only 41/2 point favorite and the odds makers know a hell of a lot more about football than me. LOL We will see. Who Dat !!!
by saints-fan-in-miss on Sep 16, 2010 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think we're on the same page.....
I was pointing out how the Vikes gave up on the ‘run’ for no apparent reason. It was working well for them and AP could have been one or two touches away from that big run we were all worried about. There was no reason for the Vikes to give up on the run only down by 5 with the whole fourth quarter to work through. If you look at the play by play in the fourth quarter, it’s Favre pass, Favre pass, Favre pass. Not sure where you get that the Vikes “gave up on the passing game” when they never gave AP the ball back.
Football is, after all, a wonderful way to get rid of your aggressions without going to jail for it. ~Heywood Hale Brown
You are correct. Thank you. Too many trains of thought going at once. LOL Do good to handle one.
by saints-fan-in-miss on Sep 16, 2010 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Gotcha
Football is, after all, a wonderful way to get rid of your aggressions without going to jail for it. ~Heywood Hale Brown
I think the plan will be similar to the Vikings game.
The Vikes and Niners both have excellent rushing attacks with a very good TE. Both teams play excellent defense. The big difference is that the Vikings have Brett Favre, and the Niners have Alex Smith. I think our defensive matchups will be similar and my key matchup this week is Roman Harper vs. Vernon Davis. Harper played lights out vs Shiancoe in the second half last week. If he can have similar results against Davis, the 49ers can forget about the passing game.
Peyton, I can eat Oreos faster than you!!!!
Point spread
I wonder what the point spread was against Seattle? Prior two posts clear up opening game results for me, though. Since Vikes gave up running game and passing game, I guess they were hoping for more than they got from special teams. I suspect the coach rides to work on the special bus.
"Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds" -Bob Marley
by PanheadCatahoula on Sep 16, 2010 10:36 AM CDT reply actions
LMN'sO !!
Other worry is the weather/field conditions. Just looked and should be fine.
by saints-fan-in-miss on Sep 16, 2010 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions
I think the bigger story is in getting their plays in
rotoworld.com:
49ers coaches and players reportedly have a serious on-field communication problem, exacerbated by offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye’s tendency to “garble” plays during games. “Jimmy calls plays from memory a lot of the time and not exactly the way it’s written down,” a team source told Yahoo’s Jason Cole. The staff has run into major issues “deciphering” Raye’s calls in key situations. Quarterback Alex Smith called out the coaching staff after Sunday’s loss, and he’s apparently not alone. Other players are said to “resent” Raye’s tendency to blame them for his own communication gaffes. The situations threatens to undermine the players’ trust in Mike Singletary’s entire staff.
Because it's custom made for any mother's son
To be a guitar picker in Nashville
Alright Alex…..when you get up to that ….um…..that line…..I want you to look across at that….. uh…… what do you call him…….. linebacker……..and make sure……now listen Alex cause this is the important part……….make sure he…….Delay of game?!?! Damnit Alex what are you doing out there?
"I want to hand this trophy to the MVP of the Super Bowl -- and the MVP of the entire league.''
-- Saints coach Sean Payton, handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Drew Brees after Super Bowl 44.
by VAsaintsfan on Sep 16, 2010 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
LOL!!
(I heard something similar, but not as bad, about Colt McCoy and his accent being a challenge he’ll have to try to overcome.)
Want to go to the Saints vs. Cowboys game? I've got an extra ticket.
I'm worried about Vernon Davis having a big day
The D-line has been so great that I hope and expect they’ll stop goretex.
I’m also concerned about dropsies and turnovers for the Saints offense. Not acceptable.
I have the same concern as well....
While we weren’t destroyed by Shancoe(74 yrds – TD) the Saints seem to be vunerable to pass catching tight ends(most likely due to our so-so linebacking corps). I can’t imagine why the 49er’s wouldn’t heavily factor him into the gameplan.
Football is, after all, a wonderful way to get rid of your aggressions without going to jail for it. ~Heywood Hale Brown
TE's
Don’t forget about our other pass catching TE, Delanie Walker. I know that name doesn’t strike fear into the heart of anyone, but he’s big, fast and catches the ball well. While you key in on Davis, you leave Walker to burn you. If you guys have problems with pass catching TE’s you may be in trouble. That is, if our coaches are smart enough to take advantage of it.
“If you guys have problems with pass catching TE’s you may be in trouble.”
It’s one of the banes of our existence. Has been for several years. Tight ends that face the Saints are typically listed among the pick ups of the week on most reputable fantasy sites. If I didn’t have Dallas Clark, I’d ride that horse a lot more often than I do.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
Well good.
Hopefully garbling Jimmy Raye will take time inbetween naps to game plan for that and keep our “12” personel on the field all night. Nice fantasy tip btw. If I didn’t have Antonio Gates I would take advantage.
Well it has been. Will it continue to be? If Roman Harper’s play was an aberration last Thursday night and he really can’t do pass coverage on a regular basis and just got lucky, then yeah.
But nothing is forever in the NFL. Nothing good. And nothing bad. Roman may or may not have improved. I’d almost bet real money we’ll find out, one way or the other, on Monday night.
The talented "under the radar" guy is scary as well.
Football is, after all, a wonderful way to get rid of your aggressions without going to jail for it. ~Heywood Hale Brown
I voted for our running game vs their D
We came this || close to losing last week because Payton got pass happy in the first half. We already know we’ll get plenty of passes in. The problem is making sure that Payton keeps a mostly balanced attack throughout the game. When we get called onto to run the ball, we have to have success. If we don’t I’m afraid we will start seeing alot of zone defense from them. Rush 4 drop everyone else and make us fit it into a tight window space. 1 pass that isn’t placed just right could end a drive. I know that’s always true but there’s less room for error in a zone because if a ball gets batted up then there are more defensive players than WRs to make a catch usually. I also think that the last game was a fluke for the 49ers. They’ll really step it up against us imo. We might need that ground game to milk the clock away like the Vikings game last week. I hope not but it’s a possibility.
Superbowl bound!!!...I know! do you?! Go Saints!!
So did I
If we’re running the ball well, then that’s only going to open it up for Drew to Hog Wild!
Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we die!
WHO DAT?!
TWO DAT!!
by LA_No1_SaintFan on Sep 16, 2010 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Voted our run game vs their D also
but I consider those short underneath passes run plays. I think they piay their best games useing them.
What wonderful little gifts April Fools Day brings.
~D's Pappy
I voted special teams,
not because I don’t have faith in them… I just think we’re going to take advantage of Alex Smith’s deficiencies w/ our coverage and our pass rush (yeah, I said ‘pass rush’)… and our offensive gameplan will be better than last week’s lopsided-ness.
Want to go to the Saints vs. Cowboys game? I've got an extra ticket.
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