A Quick Statistical Comparison: The 2009 and 2010 Saints Seasons Through Three Weeks
Am I the only Saints fan in the world who is constantly comparing this season to last, hoping the team can duplicate everything they did and keep the magic alive? With February still fresh in my memory, you can't possibly blame me. And let's face it, the 2009 season will forever be used as the measuring stick against which every other future season will be judged, what with winning the Super Bowl and all. Until the Saints win another one that is.
If you're like me then you're in luck because my curiosity was too much and I finally broke down. We know this team isn't off to nearly as fast a start as last September and many of us have a pretty good inkling as to why. But I wanted to know just what the differences were and how much they were different so I busted out the old TI-86 and did a little number crunching.
What follows is a comparison of the current season thus far to the first three games of the 2009 season (vs. Lions, @Eagles and @Bills) in key statistical categories. I then used the results to make my own, personal assumptions. If you don't agree with any or all of this, of course you are free to share your own thoughts and opinions below.
Whether or not any of this information is cause for concern cannot be known but the Saints are 2-1 so even if thinks might seem bleak there's plenty of time to right the ship. Also keep in mind the quality of opponents in each sample set of three games. That may affect what you take from all of this.
So how does this years team so far stack up to last years squad three weeks into the 2009 season? Well...
It's obvious the team just isn't putting up as many points...
| Total Points Scored | |
| 2009 | 120 points |
| 2010 | 63 points |
| Percent Decrease | -47% |
Or racking up the yardage...
| Yards per Game | |
| 2009 | 438 ypg |
| 2010 | 331 ypg |
| Percent Decrease | -24% |
The playcalling isn't nearly as balanced...
| Run/Pass Balance | |
| 2009 | 102/203 - 50% / 50% |
| 2010 | 65/182 - 35% / 65% |
And the running game is all out of whack...
| Total Rushing Yards | |
| 2009 | 512 yards |
| 2010 | 172 yards |
| Percent Decrease | -66% |
| Yards per Carry | |
| 2009 | 5.01 ypc |
| 2010 | 2.65 ypc |
| Percent Decrease | -47% |
But Drew will be Drew...
| Passing Yards | |
| 2009 | 841 yards |
| 2010 | 821 yards |
| Percent Decrease | -2% |
| QB Rating | |
| 2009 | 109.5 |
| 2010 | 107.6 |
| Percent Decrease | -2% |
And the defense is about the same...
| Defensive Points Allowed | |
| 2009 | 56 |
| 2010 | 58 |
| Percent Decrease | -3% |
| Defensive Yards Allowed | |
| 2009 | 937 yards |
| 2010 | 1087 yards |
| Percent Decrease | -14% |
| Turnover Differential | |
| 2009 | +4 |
| 2010 | +3 |
But they can't come through when it counts...
| Opponent 3rd Down Conversion | |
| 2009 | 26.49% |
| 2010 | 48.00% |
| Percent Decrease | -45% |
And spend too much time on the field while the offense sits on the bench...
| Offensive TOP | |
| 2009 | 33:30 min |
| 2010 | 29:06 min |
| Percent Decrease | -13% |
The return game is as good or better, thanks to Lance Moore...
| Punt Return Average | |
| 2009 | 2.2 ypg |
| 2010 | 29.5 ypg |
| Percent Increase | +93% |
And Courtney Roby...
| Kickoff Return Average | |
| 2009 | 18.9 ypg |
| 2010 | 24.3 ypg |
| Percent Increase | +22% |
Morstead is still solid...
| Net Punting Average | |
| 2009 | 37.9 ypg |
| 2010 | 41.8 ypg |
| Percent Increase | +9% |
Except the kicker's got some new consistency problems...
| Field Goals | |
| 2009 | 5/6 - 83% |
| 2010 | 4/7 - 57% |
| Percent Decrease | -26% |
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Comments
Looks like we are missing Bush, Bell & Sharper
The running game will come back against teams with less run defense. Our defense will do better on 3rd down with Sharper back soon.
Please, burn the black pants!!
by Big and Easy on Sep 29, 2010 6:15 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Kicking
As I recall, Garret Hartley was serving a 4 game suspension at the beginning of last year, which means Carney was 83% and Hartley is now 57%. In my mind, Hartley may always be the second greatest Saints kicker ever for what he did in the NFC championship and Superbowl, but he may not be the best kicker for the team now.
You are correct, sir
Yes Carney was our kicker and he was pretty good last year while FPK was serving his suspension. I am seeing Carney coming back, much like I predicted during the Atlanta game, if you look at the game time posts, right when Hartley missed the OT kick… Has Carney signed with any other team yet….
Re: rushing
Last year’s trio of Lions, Eagles, and Bills ranked 25th, 9th, and 30th respectively in rushing defense. Through the entire season (3-game stats aren’t available) they gave up an average 4.4 yards per rush.
This year’s opening trio of Vikings, 49ers, and Falcons rank 8th, 15th, and 12th respectively. They’re giving up an average of 4.1 yards per rush—mostly because the Falcons are giving up 5.1. The Vikings and 49ers are actually pretty good in defense per rush, both holding opponents to under 4 yards per carry, whereas the Falcons are dead last. They still held us better than the Vikings did, though.
The idea that the rushing game is missing Reggie misses the point, I think: Reggie is almost always on the bench when Pierre is in the game. His presence on the sideline doesn’t do a thing to loosen up the defense and create opportunities for PT…so why is PT running so poorly (he has a 3.2 average so far, by far the worst of his career)?
I think it’s time to resurrect the idea of a Super Bowl hangover. It seems that virtually everything this year is a little bit off—from blocking to tackling to catching the ball to play calling. Everyone seems to be going through the same motions and expecting the same results as last year, when in fact they need to pick up the pace in every area.
If, that is, they want another championship. Or are they satisfied?
It was worth the wait.
so why is PT running so poorly
Carl Nicks. Nicks is a budding star but he didn’t play his best game. Powerful defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux won this matchup more often than not and was a big reason why the Saints struggled to run the ball, especially in short-yardage situations.
jeffduncantp . Uh, no. I'm a journalist. Are you just realizing that? @yelpinwienerdog: are you even a saints fan?
That only explains one game
He hasn’t run well all year. Even in the second half of the Vikings game, he had only a 3.7 average. That’s way too many 1- and 2-yard runs, where last season those would have gone for 3 or 4 yards.
I’m on the hangover bandwagon. Book it.
It was worth the wait.
so why is PT running so poorly
At one point, Carl Nicks got a mouthful from Sean Payton over on the sideline.
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by Dave Cariello on Sep 29, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
HA
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Sep 29, 2010 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Hard to compare
I think if the 2010 Saints were playing their 1st 3 games against the Lions, Bills, and an Eagles team that had Kevin Kolb unexpectedly getting his 1st start of the year as a fill-in, then we’d be seeing a lot better stats from the Saints. I agree that they don’t seem to be playing up to the level they were last year, but you really can’t compare based on the schedule.
"I want to hand this trophy to the MVP of the Super Bowl -- and the MVP of the entire league.''
-- Saints coach Sean Payton, handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Drew Brees after Super Bowl 44.
My sentitiments exactly,
and you will note that Dave mentions keeping the quality of the three first opponents in each season in mind. I think that the comparison is important, but only up to a point. When you take the opponents on each season’s schedule into consideration, the comparison becomes more suspect.
"It's about time that something good like this happened." - Drew Brees
by SaintsFanMD on Sep 29, 2010 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Is that "total points scored" by the team, or just by the offense?
I’m curious to see what the actual offensive points are. Last years stats are skewed because of our ridiculous number of defensive touchdowns early…
"They're ready to be like 'Same Old Saints'" - Roman Harper, on each of the New Orleans Saints vanquished foes of 2009
by Hollywoo! on Sep 29, 2010 8:16 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Total points
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by Dave Cariello on Sep 29, 2010 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Darren Sharper had one pick 6 against the Eagles
Other than that it was all offense, though several other takeaways did give the Saints short fields.
I thought you said quick?!
Snap, place, kick! And it's good! It's good! It's goo-hoo-hood! Pigs have flown! Hell Has frozen over! The Saints are going to the Superbowl!
by Joseph William Stern on Sep 29, 2010 9:30 AM CDT reply actions
The most meaningful statistic
Dave did a good job of detailing the pain most of us are feeling as we wonder where our team has gone. Nevertheless, the most meaningful statistic by my way of thinking is that we are 2-1 this year whereas we were 3-0 last year, the difference residing with sloppy play throughout this season and a miss by FPK last week in OT.
The Colts were rusty/squeaky through much of last season getting by with marginal wins and yet they made it to the SB. The talking heads still consider us to be a good team. How many teams can turnover the ball 3x in a game and still almost win (FPK)?
If SP and GW can pull the team together, we likely will make the playoffs. We learned last week that the dirty birds don’t want to give the division to us. The game likely meant more to them (they would have been 1-2 had we won and we would have been 3-0), putting them at a strong disadvantage to catch us given our schedule through October.
In the end, 2-1 aint bad. Lets hope the Siants can improve especially with Sharper and Ingram coming in (and maybe Arrington, Tusk and Betts).
Time of possession is throwing off all of these counting stats
given the 5 quarters we played last game.
Nice comparison though. I like our new return game. I think our special teams is way better than last year, but both the offense and the defense need to step up.
Great job as always Dave
Here’s the most important stat in my opinion
Opponent 3rd Down Conversion
2009 26.49%
2010 48.00%
Percent Decrease -45%
We gave up 50% to the falcons I believe, and then we gave them 2/2 on 4th down. We need to get off the field on 3rd downs. I think that we are actually playing well on defense, just not closing on 3rd downs. This leads to long drives that hurt our TOP. This is the biggest reason why we lost on Sunday, not because Hartley missed the FG, but because we couldn’t get off the field on 3rd down
Peyton, I can eat Oreos faster than you!!!!
by mknkachow on Sep 29, 2010 10:26 AM CDT reply actions 4 recs
Ain't that the truth??
"It's about time that something good like this happened." - Drew Brees
by SaintsFanMD on Sep 29, 2010 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
2/3 for 4th down I think
There was a long one they went for that the pass was broken up. However, your point still stands.
Week 4 matchup: Panthers
Week 4 motto: Black pants, burned they must be.
Wow, wonder who we're drafting first next year: OLB or RB?
These first 3 games, as ugly or uneventful as they’ve been, really indicate our 2 huge problem areas: we still lack a playmaking OLB who can actually cover an opposing TE; and getting new flash for our running game would see our 3rd-4th conversion rate go way up. So yeah, 2011 Draft I say in the first 2 rounds we’re taking an OLB and a RB.
by Jee on Sep 29, 2010 10:51 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
I’d rather get John Clay out of Wisconsin if he goes pro. He’s a 6-1, 248 lb wrecking ball. And might be less injury prone than Ingram.
"I want to hand this trophy to the MVP of the Super Bowl -- and the MVP of the entire league.''
-- Saints coach Sean Payton, handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Drew Brees after Super Bowl 44.
by VAsaintsfan on Sep 29, 2010 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
we said the same thing last year
and we ended up with a cb
"As a Saint fan I watch ‘Gone with the Wind’ just to watch Atlanta burn" -Ralph Malbrough
by DrewBreesManCrush on Sep 29, 2010 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions
I've been saying
draft an OLB for like 10 years now. I think the Saints have someting against drafting LB’s in early rounds.
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." --Mike Tyson
I've said it before
and I’ll say it again. The problems with the running game are not in the backfield, they are on the line of scrimmage.
Besides, the running game is suffering because of the o-line, not the running backs. The Saints would be better served drafting an elite WR than an elite RB.
with repetition?
or about drafting a WR vs RB? or about the offensive line being the problem and not the RBs? or with all of it?
our biggest need
is a player, either LB or DE, that can generate QB pressure all on his own. We only generate pressure with scheme, and when we can’t blitz as much (like say if porter and gay are injured) we have next to no pass rush. We need a player that can make a great individual play and put the heat on the QB without 7 guys blitzing. Will Smith and Alex Brown are mostly non-entities.
"But tonight the Superbowl belongs to the City of New Orleans" - Roger Goodell 2/7/2010
My thoughts
I left multiple comments on Ralph Marlborough’s post earlier this week that are much to long to repeat here but are mostly relevant to this post too.
The competition factor is very large. It affects every aspect of the game. Going up big early in the games against the Lions and Eagles allowed to the Saints to run a lot more. It also forced the opponents to get riskier and make more mistakes. Both of those things led to more Saints points, yards, TOP, aggressiveness on defense, etc. Also, the Bills passing defense was very good compared to their rushing defense, so game planning and adjustments led to 222 rushing yards (38 runs, 31 passes).
All that said, the offensive line needs to get their sh!t together quick, and the defense needs to remember how get off the field. I’m more upset with the 49ers late 4th quarter drive than Atlanta’s 2nd quarter drive.
Here is another telling stat
First Downs, Offense
2010: 55
2009: 72
Diff: -17, -23%
First Downs, Defense
2010: 61
2009: 50
Diff: +11, +22%

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