Saints 30 @ Panthers 27: A Review of HansDat's Hot Reads

by Hans Petersen on Oct 12, 2011 6:01 AM CDT

This picture has nothing to do with Hot Reads, but I do enjoy seeing fans in costumes. Also, it might have been pretty hot in that wig on Sunday.

Well, it's that time of the week again. Time to crank up the ole abacus, scratch paper, and various stat sheets to see how I did with my Hot Reads.

Wait, that's what I did last night. All you have to do is make the jump to read on...you're welcome.

Primary Option: Protect Brees

What I'd like to see: The Panthers don't really have a fierce pass rush, and two players - Charles Johnson (4) and Greg Hardy (2) - have accounted for all their sacks thus far. So, the front five plus helpers need to neutralize them and give Brees a pressure-free day that keeps his jersey so clean it doesn't even have to be laundered after the game.

Drew Brees suffered two QB hits, and two sacks (Or do I have this all wrong and the two QB hits actually were the two sacks? Does anyone know how that works? I ran the football stats crew in college, but we didn't do tackles.). Correct me if I'm wrong, but Brees never seemed to get flustered by the pressure, and even late in the game, when it was crunch time on that final drive, he was as calm and collected as I've ever seen him. Plus, his final stat line (32 of 45, 359 yards, 2 Tds, 1 INT, 100.1 rating) does not reflect that of a rattled quarterback.

Here's something else. I keep griping each week about two sacks per game being too many, but you know what I just realized? Heck, if he's going to drop back 45 times a game, maybe two sacks per game isn't all that bad. I still want him to be hit less, but maybe it needs to be brought into perspective by a sacks per pass attempts comparison since 2006.

Great idea, Hans. Why don't you just do it?

OK, I will. (stats from ESPN.com)

2011

11 sacks in 5 games = 2.2 sacks per game

11 sacks in 219 pass attempts = a sack every 19.9 pass attempts

2010

25 sacks in 16 games = 1.6 sacks per game

25 sacks in 658 pass attempts = a sack every 26.3 pass attempts

2009

20 sacks in 16 games = 1.3 sacks per game

20 sacks in 514 pass attempts = a sack every 25.7 pass attempts

2008

13 sacks in 16 games = .8 sacks per game

13 sacks in 635 pass attempts = a sack every 48.8 pass attempts

2007

16 sacks in 16 games = 1 sack per game

16 sacks in 652 pass attempts = a sack every 40.75 pass attempts

2006

18 sacks in 16 games = 1.1 sacks per game

18 sacks in 554 pass attempts = a sack every 30.8 attempts

Well, that clinches it. I'm now officially worried. He's being sacked more often this year than he has in any of his years with the Saints. They need to turn this around, STAT!!

The only saving grace here is that it seems that Brees is holding up well under the pressure, but I fear that the older he gets, the less this will be the case.

Checkdown #1: Turn Newton Into A Newt

What I'd like to see: I don't care whether it's the result of rookie inexperience, or a great defensive scheme implemented very skillfully on the field, but I want to see bad reads, hanging on to the ball too long, poor decisions, interceptions, fumbles, and the like from Cam Newton. Bringing him down to Earth in amphibian style, so he doesn't even know whether he's playing on land or in the water would contribute much to a victory.

Cam had a decent game - not great, but not bad (16 of 31, 224 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 83.3 rating). He was only hit twice and sacked once. Cam also had 7 rushes for 27 yards and a TD.

That's pretty good for a rookie, and definitely better than fellow rookie signal-caller Blaine Gabbert fared against the Saints in Week 4.

He made some mistakes (especially that game-opening INT), but he played well enough to have them in a position to put the game into overtime, but just couldn't do it. Whether this will improve with experience remains to be seen. I fear he is going to keep getting better, and won't always make mistakes like he did Sunday, and it'll either take more offense or better defense to stop him.

Checkdown #2: Going Toe-To-Toe with Mare

What I'd like to see: A graceful Kasay perfectly performing his duties in calm, workman-like fashion as the Saints score many first-half touchdowns, while Mare struggles mightily to keep up with many FG attempts.

Well, I got the many FGs vs. lots of XPs exactly opposite of how it went down in the game. Olindo Mare had only XPs and John Kasay had all the FGs.

But Mare (0 of 0 FGs, 3 of 4 XPs) did perform worse than Kasay (3 of 3 FGs, 3 of 3 XPs), and it made a bit of a difference in the game. At the end, because of the blocked XP, Carolina was playing for a game-tying field goal, when they could have been playing for the game-winning FG.

So the battle of the kickers was won by New Orleans.

Safety Valve: What Will Happen On Third Down?

What I'd like to see: The Saints defense keep the Panthers in third and long situations so that even mad scrambles or decent runs aren't good enough to get the first downs.

The Saints did not keep the Panters in third and longs all day (GAAA!), and didn't even hold them to their average third down conversion percentage (32), but allowed them nearly twice that for the game (7 of 12 for 58%) - double GAAAA! Three of the successful conversions involved runs by Newton or Jonathan Stewart, so I was kinda right that stopping the runs on third down was crucial, as without them, drives would have ended and the score would have been totally different.

Don't even get me started on those third down conversions by penalty...

* * *

Now it's your turn to audit my audit of the Hot Reads. Did I miss any aspect of the game in my analysis? Did I go too far in my assessments? Not far enough?

Tweet Comment 16 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Sacks have definitely gone up

This can only point to a deteriorating offensive line. Sure, they are not bad by comparison to some other teams, however at this rate next year (provided no major changes are made) we will be up to 3 sacks per game – which is scary. Maybe they pick up some fresh blood in the draft on both sides of the line.

As for Newton, I think the Saints did pretty good at containing him. His 224 yards are about half up what he put in the air against his previous opponents. He ran, but 27 yards is nothing for him – he is capable of running on a team all day if you let him.

by Valmo on Oct 12, 2011 6:52 AM CDT reply actions

I agree- 27 yards- Cam Newton? that means he was shut down on the ground which is no small feat.

If Pro is the opposite of Con, what is the opposite of Progress? Congress!
-Men's Restroom - House of Representatives, Washington, DC

by Philinwood on Oct 12, 2011 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions

You did a nice job Hans...

re: sacks, yes sacks have gone up- we need to do better. But, winning is the most important and we’re doing that. Also, I think that when you talk about sacks, it’s more complicated than just 2.1 vs 1.6. The type of sack is important- did it drastically affect the game on a crucial down in a crucial juncture of the game? Was it a 1 yd sack when Brees was stepping up or was it a 14 yd sack ( unlikely) to take us out of FG range? Did Brees look downfield for 4.5 secs and then just decide to run to the sideline and go out of bounds instead of risking an INT? Additionally, was it just 2 sacks and mostly Brees had ample time 95% of the game or were there constant hurries, pressures and batted balls?

As I said, we need to do better but considering the switch out of Stinchcomb for Streif, adding Olin Kreutz and then switching him out for DLP, and the other changes as well as not having Dave Thomas, getting Gilmore onboard with the blocking schemes, not having Colston for a couple of weeks, getting Ingram as a rookie up to snuff on passing and outlet passes etc, and getting Sproles used to what Brees wants and what is needed as far as chip blocks etc, I think they’ve done pretty well and will improve. If you will notice, we were never throwing the ball to Ingram early on and now we are and that can affect things.

I would like to see acouple more screen passes per game, especially to PT and I wish we had a second tight end other than Graham that could do a screen. That would really be an asset. In my mind, screen passes are game changers. They often provide long gains, require every D player to chase and get tired (possibly leading to substitutions that can cause favorable matchup s) and help to negate a good pass rush. I guess DThomas could do that when he comes back, if he plays like he did in 2009 vs how he’s been playing this year.

If Pro is the opposite of Con, what is the opposite of Progress? Congress!
-Men's Restroom - House of Representatives, Washington, DC

by Philinwood on Oct 12, 2011 8:33 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs

my main focus on the sacks is that the more hits he takes, the more likely he is to be injured

he’s no spring chicken!

WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!

by Hans Petersen on Oct 12, 2011 6:37 PM CDT up reply actions

You’re not implying that he may be in decline, are you?

This comment was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.

by cscmember on Oct 13, 2011 8:44 AM CDT up reply actions

11 vs 15

I’m noticing more n more the refs having such an “inconsistant” impact with some of the most idiotic calls" and were only into 5 games mind you ( dread the playoff calling to come ) to where we’re at a NFL level of WWF Raw it’s comedic at times, this should be addressed as loud as the coverage of the lock out… With that out the way your reads were pretty much on par with your reads, as always tho penalty yards are killin manageable drives each week, but gettin better.. Not sure if Harper was even fined for the late hit.

You know Hartman, goodie-two-shoes is fidgeting around like a one-legged cat trying to bury s#!t on a frozen pond, until old Seth fixes him a couple of pink poontang specials. You know, that crazy drink that I fix for stewardesses? Two shots out of that and Hartman is shot to s#!t, freaked out. I mean, I never saw a guy having so much fun and crying at the same time!

by Deep Threat on Oct 12, 2011 10:11 AM CDT reply actions

this should be addressed as loud as the coverage of the lock out…

I’ve noticed when visiting other team’s sites that criticism of bad officiating, and the belief it’s getting worse, is a consistent theme across the board. Although fans complaining about refs has always been part of the game, it clearly appears there is a feeling the quality of officiating is declining rather than improving.

I’ve seen some scattered articles written about it and a few opinion pieces stating the NFL should make late or “illegal” hits on QB’s subject to review by the booth before they’re enforced (or missed). But, I’ve not seen anything from the media as a whole that equals the degree of concern held by a large number of fans.

How bad does it have to get before Mr. Goodell becomes as concerned about game officials doing their job properly as he is about players faking injuries?

by Drew-Dat on Oct 12, 2011 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

There just isn't any consistency in the way the roughing penalties are called

I like the instant replay option. It’s such a big penalty, and depending on when it’s called can really affect the outcome of the game. Such a big call should be eligible for review, especially given how many bad calls the refs are making.

Our fat punk kicker, Garrett Hartley, missed a game-winner and we lost for the second week in a row - Scott Fujita in 2009

by Ragin Who Dat on Oct 12, 2011 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Looked pretty good to me Hans

I think some of the sacks are coverage sacks and Drew’s competitiveness keeping him from throwing the ball away. I actually think the O-Line has improved from the beginning of the season. Bushrod hasn’t made many glaring mistakes lately, ( at least he is staying on his feet), and is also getting better at run blocking. Charles and de La Punte are doing well as replacements. Yes they are missing a view blocks, but that happens on every team, at times.
Some big plays are given up with GW’s aggressive style of attack, but I prefer this to Gibbs bend don’t break, methods. Now if you want a new Read, how about the Ref’s making some calls that make sense.

INGRAMANIA equals LOMBARDI 2012

by cajuncommando58 on Oct 12, 2011 10:24 AM CDT reply actions

Good write-up, Hans

The only thing I would add is that against such a poor run defense, we need to be running the ball more. I hope Payton does this against the Colts and the Rams to get some momentum built up for our running game.

by BlackandGold4ever on Oct 12, 2011 12:16 PM CDT reply actions

Great write up

I agree with everything except the part about John Kasey. That guy sucks

Just because we have chiseled abs and stunning features, it doesn't mean that we too can't not die in a freak gasoline fight accident.

by Fat Punk Kicker on Oct 12, 2011 1:04 PM CDT reply actions

Relax FPK

You’ll have your job back next year.

by Valmo on Oct 12, 2011 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions

Don't be so sure....

What if FPK pulls a hammy during the offseason while picking up a donut that he accidentally dropped? Or what if he stubs his toe running for the ice cream truck. Lots of possibilities. Kasay may be here for a while.

Our fat punk kicker, Garrett Hartley, missed a game-winner and we lost for the second week in a row - Scott Fujita in 2009

by Ragin Who Dat on Oct 12, 2011 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions