Preston's Saints @ Panthers Preview: Dynamic By Design

by Preston J. Gary, Jr. on Oct 8, 2011 6:00 AM CDT

When you look at Sunday's matchup between the Saints and Panthers, the common thread is how dynamic their offenses can be. We all know the kind of quarterback Drew Brees is, but honestly, who thought Cam Newton would be leading a top 5 offense at this point while opening up his rookie season with two consecutive 400+ yard performances? It's unheard of, and it's down-right scary if you are a Saints fan.

Below, we'll discuss the tale of the tape for each team, examining and contrasting each position group. Then we'll speculate as to what you might expect to see on Sunday and follow it up with a statistical comparison.

Both teams have the ability to run or pass very well. And while both also started slow with the run game, they have the offensive line and backfield to exploit the run with only opportunity (if you are playing catch-up) and a run-first mentality lacking. That's changing as each team is becoming more committed to establishing the viable threat of a run game while running more on first down. Both teams have a tight end who causes matchup problems. In short, both teams are pretty dynamic on offense, and it's surprising considering what we thought about the Panthers just one month ago.

Each have liabilities on defense as well, especially at the linebacker position. Carolina started the season with the best group of linebackers in the division, if not the NFL, but injuries quickly depleted their starters and Dan Connor's stock has fallen dramatically. For the last two decades, the Saints have left a lot to be desired at the linebacker position; they're especially vulnerable when facing a good tight end or pass catching running back. Each team has a better than average secondary, though you wouldn't know it by simply looking at statistics. I'd go as far as to call the defensive line for each team a wash -- they can each be dominant or equally non-effective each week; neither is altogether consistent, though the talent is there.

So how much actually separates the two teams? I'd argue the Saints have the best group of wide recievers in the division (Atlanta may have the best 1-2 punch) and I'd postulate that Carolina has the worst group in the division (since the season began, maybe we can elevate their WR corps over Tampa's). In addition, Drew Brees and the coaching staff have the edge in experience. Carolina may have better offensive tackles, but the Saints have a better interior line. I'll take the Saints safeties over anyone the Panthers have to offer. The Saints are more dynamic at running back, while the Panthers are more traditional.

What can we expect to see? In their losses, each team was in the game down to the last possession. I don't think that will change Sunday. You may see a double digit lead at some point, but I wouldn't expect more than a ten point differential. Under John Fox, Carolina vs. New Orleans was always a very physical affair. I do expect that to change somewhat because Carolina's philosophy has changed with the new staff (especially offensively). I believe it will be less "black and blue" and more "track meet."

When playing a divisional opponent, it matters not what each teams records are; they know each other too well. It ultimately comes down to the matchups, which is why teams build their rosters with the goal of exploiting a divisional opponent first and foremost. That said, the experience of the Saints pass catchers and quarterback will be the difference in this game. Cam Newton and Steve Smith will get theirs, but it won't be enough. The Saints have plenty of experience and practice compensating for poor linebacker play; Carolina doesn't. The complementary WRs the Saints have will be able to exploit Carolina's LBs more consistantly than Carolina's pass catchers will be able to best the Saints LBs. This will be a close game until the 4th quarter, but the Saints will come away with a 34 to 27 win.

Stat Time

Offense

2. Saints - 31.8 points per game, 454 yards per game, 6.4 yards per play, 55% 3rd down conversion, 32:35 time of possession, -3 turnover margin

3. Panthers - 22.2 ppg, 440 ypg, 6.3 ypp, 33% 3rd downs, 32:06 TOP, -2 TO margin

Passing Offense

2. Saints - 335 ypg, 8.1 yards per attempt, 69% completion, 10 Td's, 4 int's, (16) 20+ yard pass plays, 9 sacks given up, 102.9 QB rating

3. Panthers - 334.8 ypg, 8.5 ypa, 59.5% completion, 5 td's, 5 int's, (25) 20+ yard pass completions, 8 sacks, 84.5 qb rating

Rushing Offense

10. Saints - 119 ypg, 4.5 yards per carry, 3 tds, 1 fumble, (3) 20+ yard runs

17. Panthers - 105 ypg, 4.1 ypc, 4 tds, 1 fumble, (3) 20+ yard runs

Defense

14. Panthers - 25.5 ppg, 347 ypg, 6.5 ypp, 33% 3rd downs allowed, 2 fumble recoveries

15. Saints - 24.5 ppg, 348 ypg, 5.5 upp, 38% 3rd down, 1 fumble recovery

Pass Defense

6. Panthers - 203 ypg, 9.0 ypa, 61.1% completion, 5 td's, 2 int's, (12) 20+ yard passes allowed, 6 sacks, 99.4 opposing qb rating

19. Saints - 254 ypg, 7.0 ypa, 52.2% completion, 8 td's, 2 int's, (13) 20+ yard passes allowed, 13 sacks, 86.1 qb rating

Rush Defense

9. Saints - 94.0 ypg, 4.6 ypc, 2 td's, (2) 20+ yard runs allowed

31. Panthers - 144 ypg, 5.2 ypc, 4 td's, (7) 20+ yard runs allowed

Overall Statistical Analysis:

Carolina has been average on third down, while the Saints just about lead the NFL in conversion - which is one reason you see such a large differential in points scored per game. Carolina can move the ball, but the lack of experience and diversity at wide receiver cost them in the red zone and on 3rd down. Carolina has gotten their yards in big chunks while the Saints have shown the ability to "nickel and dime" opponents, convert on third down and consistently pick them apart. The Saints may consider running on Carolina's defense while not exploiting linebackers with Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles in the passing game because the more they run, the longer they keep Newton off the field.

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Should be fun to watch

Carolina has been average on third down, while the Saints just about lead the NFL in conversion

This right here is why the Saints will take home the win.

by Valmo on Oct 8, 2011 6:53 AM CDT reply actions

I’m increasingly worried about Cam Newton’s running ability. I hope someone “spies” him the whole game. If not, I’m worried that third down conversion rate will go up for Carolina.

by Jimbo03 on Oct 8, 2011 7:12 AM CDT reply actions

I'm not Triple G...

…but if I WERE, here’s how I’d defense sCam:

Base 3-4 defense, one of the 2 ILB’s would be a “spy” – Dunbar, maybe, have the DE’s play with strong gap discipline – do not “crash” in on the QB, but keep him “boxed” and force him to run AT the spy if he does run.

I’ve been watching the Pampers every weekend (downside of living within their home TV market :-P ), and have noticed that sCam is most effective on the run, whether he’s going to continue running, or throw the ball. When he breaks containment and the routes downfield break down, so does the coverage downfield. His “big” plays in the passing game have ALL been on these types of plays, and they’ve been throws to receivers that were totally uncovered due to the “busted” play and their desire to get position to deal with him running.

Contain sCam, keep the receivers in front of defenders, and you eliminate the big plays. He will then get frustrated and start doing stupid stuff (dude is dumb as a box of rocks). He’s a dynamic player, but not a SMART one, and you can force him into mistakes this way.

Irony: an atheist Saints fan

by GSO Saints Fan on Oct 8, 2011 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

Well said, man.

by Jimbo03 on Oct 8, 2011 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions

Newton may run himself onto IR

He’s a big boy, but the league is full of big boys. I wonder if it will be more dominated by the defenses? Having predicted that, shoot-out is inevitable. I have not made one correct prediction all season (except for the 3 wins).

"Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds" -Bob Marley

by PanheadCatahoula on Oct 8, 2011 7:18 AM CDT reply actions

time to welcome the rook to playing in the division..

there is one very major difference that you briefly touched near the end, preston..
the saints have a process, an established offensive identity in this passing business.. (pizza’s heart skips a beat..)
coaching is crucial, here.. & i believe it will show..
carolina’s offensive staff is just trying to figure out how to morph themselves into a passing offense..
the saints passing game don’t just happen because of the individual players.. the receivers create the mismatches moving as blocks, targeting areas of the field, exploiting the hidden mismatches.. (all pretty obvious stuff, but it must not be that easy cause only a few elite teams can do it consistently..)
this is an art that you just can’t draw on the ice bucket at the sideline..
i would say that the crafted, highly engineered saints passing game schools the rook while they draw plays on the ice.. without taking away anything from mr newton raw talent, he’s a long way to go.. the saints, like you point out, a team that knows things..
when he goes in.. the defense will hit him relentlessly.. & throw all kinds of coverage twists..
i expect a solid win.. maybe not very lopsided on the score, but convincing..

by the 9th plague on Oct 8, 2011 7:44 AM CDT reply actions

What concerns me is that

if we get pressure off the edge, it’s just going to encourage Newton to run up the middle. Maybe not, since that is a good way to get your QB clobbered as you mentioned, but I don’t think it’ll be by design. I don’t expect the Panthers staff to call plays for him running up the middle of the field, but I don’t think the kid fears injury at all and if he sees the opportunity I expect him to take it. I’d like to see a LB in that spot a lot, or a ton of blitzes up the middle as opposed to blitzes from the edge. I don’t have anything to back it up other than a gut feeling, but I think Newton’s going to cut loose on the ground more than through the air this game.

by Jimbo03 on Oct 8, 2011 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions

I think this will be a blowout.

now that there is film on Newton, expect GW to attack him based on what he’s seen. Prior to this, the film study had been minimal. Newton is an amazing talent, but still a rookie QB. His “rookieness” has to start showing at some point.

If Pro is the opposite of Con, what is the opposite of Progress? Congress!
-Men's Restroom - House of Representatives, Washington, DC

by Philinwood on Oct 8, 2011 9:12 AM CDT reply actions

Was there no film on Matt Ryan by the fifth game his rookie year? Considering the defense he’ll be facing, I’ll be pleasantly surprised in Newton doesn’t exceed 400 yards from scrimmage. That said, I’m not overly worried about this game, based on both those tendencies and what I saw out of Payton’s play calling last week. As long as he doesn’t stubbornly engage Brees in a 60 minute shootout, we should take this one rather easily. No blowout, but a nice mix of running and passing should lead to low-double-digit scoring separation by game’s end, barring key injuries, a rash of turnovers, penalties, dropped passes, etc. you never know, though. It’s the first division game for the Panthers, too. They could very well come out pounding the rock, in order to keep Brees sidelined. You simply can’t take Williams and Stewart for granted based on their 2011 under-utilization alone.

You can toga party, but you can't toga fish.

by coldpizza on Oct 8, 2011 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

QB runs by design

While Newton hasn’t had many designed run plays so far this year, it would be naive to say he won’t run against the Saints. You can attribute his lack of running so far to good protection from his O-line, allowing him to pass for 400+ yards in several games. If you get pressure on Newton, he WILL run – and that’s what I fear might happen today if we shut down his receivers.

by Valmo on Oct 8, 2011 10:26 AM CDT reply actions

Word.

We all know that the Panthers have had some issues running the ball, but even taking that into account, the fact that Newton is only 10 yards behind their rushing leader while putting up these insane passing totals is a little scary. Mobile QBs just give me freaking heartburn.

by Jimbo03 on Oct 8, 2011 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions

The biggest misconception (I had) about Cam deals with design...

At Awwbarn, the greater majority of his runs WERE designed runs. It wasn’t as if he were staring down the 1st target, not making progressions if that guy was covered and taking off running by default. Jim Miller pointed this out. A better way to say it is that he’s not Vince Young.

I’m just worried about our horrid LB play and our back 7 bouncing off of him while trying to make a tackle.

Stop wearing a wishbone where your backbone ought to be. Would you be convicted in court of being a Christian? Happiness is shared, and comes from sharing.

by Preston J. Gary, Jr. on Oct 8, 2011 11:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Cam is smart....

Maybe its not rocket science smart but he’s not a scientist. He’s a football player who has a history of winning period. You don’t have the background in football playing his position and just lucky. His height enables him to easily see the field which is his one of two advantages he has over Brees. The other is Cam WILL run… Wether its because his guys are covered or just because the play is designed for him to run. His accuracy is amazing for a rookie and depending on the route puts the right amount of “touch” on the throw. Its crazy how those 2 things + his football IQ is what has the panthers as one of the most exciting losing teams to play. They’re hardly out of any game and shouldn’t be taken lightly. The Saints should win because of coaching. Unfortunately our D is our achilles’ heel but its not as bad as it sounds. They’re getting better as the season progresses but wrapping up and loose coverages are still a problem. Offensively I see Colston & Moore going off +a few good ones for Graham and a Devery sighting here and there. With Beason out for the season, it should be some nice running going on even through the middle. Lets GEAUX SAINTS!!! Don’t let this be a “trap” game…..

by fshabazz on Oct 8, 2011 12:51 PM CDT reply actions

I am hoping

that we finally see the Saints really, really, for real this time, I promise, run the ball tomorrow. But since it makes so much sense, Payton is almost surely not going to do it. ><

by Jimbo03 on Oct 8, 2011 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions

and that is why he's a genius

WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!

by Hans Petersen on Oct 8, 2011 6:37 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

we going over there to run our offense..

that’s how we played manning, brady, rodgers.. all guys, that probably will be talked about in some 15-20 years in canton, along with our guy (to stujo & his disciples’ dismay..)
if you think just because carolina has been a little soft against the run, we are gonna exclusively pound away, is unrealistic..
i think we will have plenty of attempts to get them to defend the run.. but all the playbook pages make the trip to charlotte..

by the 9th plague on Oct 8, 2011 7:01 PM CDT reply actions

Everybodies thinking more run tomorrow.

Watch out, because this is a game where Brees will unload a bunch. He won’t even let this rookie be anywhere close to his stats. But, our defense will hold the rookie to under 200 yds passing and very little rushing. Don’t expect this team to score many points tomorrow. Field goals are gonna be what you see from Carolina.

by tommy v on Oct 8, 2011 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions

Incorrect as usual, King Friday.

You can toga party, but you can't toga fish.

by coldpizza on Oct 9, 2011 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Cam Newton will quickly learn who's this Roman Harper he's been hearing about.

Roman will have a field day with Newton. And not only Harper. The way I see it, if he wants to run, he better be really tough and hang in there for this game. This will be by far his toughest game thus far and probably the rest of the year except when he has to come in our territory. Cam, be ready because you’re gonna have a taste of what a true NFL team plays like. This won’t be like the John Fox days where we win by 3, or they win by 3. It was really close the majority of times against the Panthers. We will win big time tomorrow and the bad thing for them is that it will probably be double worse when they come to the Superdome. OK Cam, let’s see what you got big boy.

by tommy v on Oct 8, 2011 7:23 PM CDT reply actions

Roman will have a field day with Newton.

Stop, you’re killing me.
No, really. Stop.

You can toga party, but you can't toga fish.

by coldpizza on Oct 9, 2011 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Saints 60% pass, 40% rush against Panthers.

by tommy v on Oct 8, 2011 8:00 PM CDT reply actions

You weren’t far off the mark here. 62/38 pass. Tell me, are you more satisfied with the margin of victory this week, as opposed to last week, when we ran more often?

You can toga party, but you can't toga fish.

by coldpizza on Oct 9, 2011 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions