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2011 Saints Bye Week Status Report: Better Than, Worse Than, or the Same As 2010?

Here's hoping the Saints don't limp to the finish in the final six games of the 2011 regular season. Stay Healthy, Saints!! (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

 

With the break in Saints game action this week as a result of the bye, it makes an opportune time to take brief stock and see where the team is in relation to the 2010 squad, whose season was decent (11-5 and a playoff berth), but ended in Seattle on Wild Card Weekend in most disappointing fashion.

By the end of it, you will have some initial information to help you decide for yourself whether the 2011 Saints are Better ThanWorse Than, or meh, About the Same As the 2010 Saints. 

Make the jump to read more about it!

Star-divide

 

First, let's take a look at the wins and losses of these two teams

The 2010 Saints were 7-3 in Week 11, having won 3 in a row (of what would eventually be a 6-game winning streak) and with the bye in the review mirror. The three losses included a close OT loss to the Falcons from Week 3, as well as two head-scratching losses to inferior opponents (Arizona and Cleveland). 

The 2011 Saints also finish Week 11 @ 7-3, but this time having won two in a row (of what will eventually be a ??-game winning streak), and with the bye under their belts. The three losses include a close loss in the opener at Green Bay, as well as a couple of head-scratchers to inferior opponents (Tampa Bay, St. Louis).

Seems ABOUT THE SAME to me, folks!

But, what we also need to consider as a very important fact is that the 2010 Saints were looking up at the 8-2 Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South Race, while the 2011 Saints are 1.5 games ahead of the 5-4 Falcons. This is huge and suddenly converts this section into a BETTER THAN component.


Now, let's shine a light on a trio of statistical points of reference

In my brief review, it seemed that there were three statistical categories that immediately jumped out at me as being significantly different.

After 10 games, the 2010 Saints were scoring 23.5 points per game while allowing exactly 17 points per game, and rushing for 94.5 yards per game.

This year's model of the Saints is averaging 31.3 points while allowing 22.8, and is rushing for 117.5 yards per game.

That adds up to a net gain of almost two points in scoring differential, and a +23 yards per game in the rushing department.

I'l go ahead and call this another BETTER THAN area.


And finally, let's check the medical records...

The final Week 11 injury report for the Saints in 2010 designated Jeremy ShockeyDarren Sharper, and Pierre Thomas as OUT, with Jon Stinchcomb and Chris Ivory QUESTIONABLE, and Malcolm Jenkins and Patrick Robinson PROBABLE. Reggie Bush was expected to play after a good week of practice, and this was to be his first game back after breaking his leg in Week 2, but he did not actually play.

For Week 10 of 2011, the Saints reported Jon Vilma and Turk McBride as OUT, Chris Ivory, Lance Moore, and Patrick Robinson QUESTIONABLE, and Mark IngramTracy Porter and John Gilmore PROBABLE.

It definitely seems to me that this season has seen a much healthier Saints team suit up more regular starters than in 2010, and the Week 11 injury comparison highlights this.

Therefore, the Saints are BETTER THAN they were in 2010 here.


What's your final take, Hans?

My final take is that the 2011 Saints are BETTER OFF THAN the 2010 New Orleans Saints in many ways, and I'm hopeful for a great final six games with a sweet playoff run. But they have much to do, and much they can improve upon to make this another dream season.

Let's lace 'em up and do it!!!

* * *

I have done some very surface-level initial research and writing on this, with the end purpose of creating a platform of discussion in which you can participate in regarding the Saints outlook for the remainder of the 2011 season.

Here are some conversation starters:

What do you think of the Saints chances for the rest of 2011? Are there any other statistical points of reference or aspects of the 2010 vs. 2011 Saints that lead you to believe what you do?

To borrow from the questions Ralph posed in the Bye-Week Podcast: What are you most excited about in the final six games (and playoffs)? What scares you the most about the final six games (and playoffs)? What would you most like the Saints to fix/improve upon for the final six games (and playoffs)?  

Let's lace 'em up and do it!!!

Poll
How do you feel the 2011 New Orleans Saints stand in relation to the 2010 Saints?
Better than 2010.
357 votes
Meh. About the same as 2010.
92 votes
Worse than 2010.
8 votes
Other. Please explain below.
4 votes
Need more burgers!!!
11 votes

472 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 44 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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May 2012 by Dave Cariello - 30 comments

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I'm hoping for a 11 game win streak (8 wins in regular season & 3 win in post season).

I really think the Saints will end up as the third or fourth seed. This will be better than the wild card spot we were in last year. The play off race looks to be a tight one. Green Bay could lose a couple, but I don’t see them losing more than the Saints. San Fran is looking tough and they benefit from a soft conference schedule. The Saints will have to play tough the rest of the season with the Falcons nipping at the heels to win the South. The Giants or the Cowboys look to win the East. I’m hoping the Saints beat the hell out of the Giants on Monday night. The Giants have played very up and down this year. I hate the Washington field goal kicker and the Dallas field goal kicker. I think either Detroit or Chicago will make a wild card spot with the edge going to Detroit after Jay Cutler’s injury. The last wild card spot will be between Atlanta and the Giants or the Cowboys. Saints just need to win out and everything will take care of itself.

by rustdog74 on Nov 21, 2011 8:33 AM CST reply actions  

Voted Burger after my indecision on the last poll

Although I feel this season is better than last years so far , as we have the lead in
the division and have the upper hand on the Falcons at the moment and they’re not
playing as well as last year.

That could`ve been me,a useless gnome* fishing
for turds in a birthing pool.

by saint_chew on Nov 21, 2011 8:46 AM CST reply actions  

Great article Hans

I too think the Saints are better off this year than last, mostly due to our running backs. Last year we were decimated much of the year at running back. The lack of a running game made us one dimensional and allowed teams like the Seahawks to beat us. This year we have a much healthier running back crew, not to mention a fresh new face (Ingram). But they won’t do us any good if Payton doesn’t start using them more often and more effectively. We got the talent, now let’s use it.

Our fat punk kicker, Garrett Hartley, missed a game-winner and we lost for the second week in a row - Scott Fujita in 2009

by Ragin Who Dat on Nov 21, 2011 9:29 AM CST reply actions  

I am concerned about the upcoming Giants game....

We all know that football is a very emotional game. Well since the Giants lost last night they have fallen behind the Cowboys in their division. A loss to the Saints would really hurt their chances of winning their division. On the other hand, the Saints are a full game ahead of the Falcons and would remain the leader in the division even with a loss due to the tie-breaker. I am concerned that the Giants will be on fire for this game and the Saints won’t be. Payton needs to find a way to really motivate the team before this game, or it might not be prettty.

Our fat punk kicker, Garrett Hartley, missed a game-winner and we lost for the second week in a row - Scott Fujita in 2009

by Ragin Who Dat on Nov 21, 2011 9:33 AM CST reply actions  

After last night, I like our chances more. Their run defense is stout, but their pass defense was awful. They made plays on passes thrown right to them, but their DBs didn’t make a play on a ball all night. And there were several plays where they left Philly’s WRs run wide open. A better QB would have torn them apart last night. Their LBs are hurting and their rookies are making some mistakes. If that same Giants team shows up next week the Saints win in a blowout.

"I want to hand this trophy to the MVP of the Super Bowl -- and the MVP of the entire league.''
-- Saints coach Sean Payton, handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Drew Brees after Super Bowl 44.

by VAsaintsfan on Nov 21, 2011 10:03 AM CST up reply actions  

Interesting points

Does this mean the Saints are more likely to stress the passing game?

by Ship on Nov 21, 2011 11:37 AM CST up reply actions  

there run defense is ok, I mean cuzzo did run for his first 100 yard game in years against them.

Haters gon' hate...

by TAYDIGGA on Nov 21, 2011 4:01 PM CST up reply actions  

Drew Brees comes to play in primetime

The colts game, the pats game during the sb run, the steelers game. as far as i can remember drew brees plays well in primetime. plus the superdome will be going crazy and we’ll have more than two weeks to prepare. the giants have been forced to be a lot more one dimensional lately since ahmad bradshaw has been out. he can change a lot of things if he comes back. hakeem always seems to be banged up.

by forrestgump52 on Nov 22, 2011 3:24 AM CST up reply actions  

I hope...

The run game has been under utilized, because the O-line has been injured, and has needed most of the season thus far, to jell. Also we are healthy at the RB position, for a good run through the end of the season, and hopefully into the SB. Now the big question is whether Sean will commit to the run game more for the rest of this year. We can only hope. The run game must play a bigger part for us to make a realistic attempt at another Lombardi.

R.I.P. Andy Rooney

by cajuncommando58 on Nov 21, 2011 9:51 AM CST reply actions  

A high powered pass heavy offense that takes the occasional game off plus a porous defense that wakes up about once every 6 games to play well = about the same as 2010.

-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.

by jeff.l.b on Nov 21, 2011 10:12 AM CST reply actions  

Maybe it's too early for me to do math.
After 10 games, the 2010 Saints were scoring 23.5 points per game while allowing exactly 17 points per game, and rushing for 94.5 yards per game
This year’s model of the Saints is averaging 31.3 points while allowing 22.8, and is rushing for 117.5 yards per game.
That adds up to a net gain of almost six points in scoring differential

The numbers don’t make sense to me, how is that a gain of 6 points in differential?

Hmmm...
I probably shouldn’t come on this. ;-)

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by Dave Cariello on Aug 24, 2011 10:31 AM PDT

by Cajun in CA on Nov 21, 2011 10:16 AM CST reply actions  

I noticed that as well

Should be +2 points in differential from 2010 to 2011.

/audit

As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality. -Albert Einstein

by HB-NOLA on Nov 21, 2011 10:33 AM CST up reply actions  

aw, crap

good catch – thanks

mental math from a mental midget + no Saints game to watch = not working out so well for HansDat

correction is forthcoming

WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!

by Hans Petersen on Nov 21, 2011 8:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Some from column A, some from column B

In many ways, the 2011 team is better. The running game, when it’s used, is clearly better, though it’s hard to fault them much for last year with so many injuries. I think the passing game is a little better as well, mainly due to the emergence of Graham. Special teams is also improved in returns and in coverage.

But the most glaring difference to me is the defense, which is a lot worse this year than last. I don’t really understand what the problem is either. The Saints had trouble with outside runs last year as they do this year. The LBs were no better, and were probably worse as a group last year. The secondary is about the same in statistical performance, though it seems clear they’ve missed Tracy Porter this year. Even when he has been on the field, he hasn’t looked 100%. Robinson started out being more of a liability than an asset, but he’s definitely improved. And in some ways he is better than Tracy – specifically his tackling and making plays on quick passes behind the LoS. Given all that, it’s hard to understand how the Saints are allowing almost a TD more to opponents this year.

As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality. -Albert Einstein

by HB-NOLA on Nov 21, 2011 10:43 AM CST reply actions  

Bad as we think the defense is this year

We actually have the top ranked defense in the NFC south. We rank 15th overall defense in the nfl, 23rd rush defense, and 11th pass defense. Source

R.I.P. Andy Rooney

by cajuncommando58 on Nov 21, 2011 11:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Which explains just how annoying it is we’re 7-3 instead of 9-1 like we should be…

by FriarBob on Nov 21, 2011 12:21 PM CST up reply actions  

until the last two games

Red Zone defense is what has been killing us. Hopefully we have turned the corner on that!

R.I.P. Andy Rooney

by cajuncommando58 on Nov 21, 2011 12:24 PM CST up reply actions  

top ranked in the NFCS isn't saying much

Currently, the Saints defense is 20th in points allowed and dead last in ypc against the run. Last year, the Saints were 4th in total yards allowed, 7th in points allowed, and 17th in ypc allowed. It’s easy to forget just how many games the defense kept them in last year when the offense was struggling.

As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality. -Albert Einstein

by HB-NOLA on Nov 21, 2011 12:43 PM CST up reply actions  

thats true. season opener from last year was probably one of the lowest scoring wins we’ve had.

by forrestgump52 on Nov 22, 2011 3:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Picked as good as, would have picked

better than if I knew it was a better "off " than scenario. Last year our defense seemed to be better than this year, but our offense seems to better this season than last so I think it sort of balances out the 2010 team and the 2011 team but I do think we are better "off " this season coming out of the bye.

Fee-fi-fo-fum,
I smell the blood of an Englishman,
Be he alive, or be he dead
I'll grind his bones to make my bread

by jonrockets on Nov 21, 2011 12:45 PM CST reply actions  

Also

I’ve seen hope for our Defense the last 2 games. Seems like we have stepped up recently, which if continues, bodes well for the rest of the season.

R.I.P. Andy Rooney

by cajuncommando58 on Nov 21, 2011 12:48 PM CST up reply actions  

The defense has had the brunt of the injury bug this year, too, so hopefully they’ll improve as they get healthier (knock on wood!) throughout the rest of the season.

by sammasaaron on Nov 21, 2011 1:00 PM CST up reply actions  

good point J-rocket

language was a bit cloudy there – sorry

WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!

by Hans Petersen on Nov 21, 2011 8:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I feel the offense is better (and healthier) but the defense is worse.

I don’t have any stats at the moment to back it up but the Saints were one of the best passing defense last year, I would guess we aren’t at the top anymore. Again, just guessing.

by daisy117 on Nov 21, 2011 2:00 PM CST reply actions  

Hans, you may want to look this up.

I think in 2010 we went for it more on 4th and whatever and made it. This year we’re kicking more field goals or punting. That makes a really big difference.

by tommy v on Nov 21, 2011 3:25 PM CST reply actions  

I was wrong.

In all of 2009 we were 6-15 on 4th down conversions.
In all of 2010 we were 5-11 on 4th down conversions.
Thru 10 games this year, we are 3-5 on on 4th down conversions. So far, it looks like we are doing better this year.

by tommy v on Nov 22, 2011 8:33 AM CST up reply actions  

if GB and SF

keep winning, anyone else wish we get the 4th seed? then we host a game in the Dome, and get to go to San Francisco probably instead of GB…..Just sayin it looks like a slightly easier path that going through the freezing fields of Lambieu

by Lil_joe692 on Nov 22, 2011 9:02 AM CST reply actions  

No I'd rather play Green Bay....

I have a theory that when 2 great teams play each other twice in the same year, they split. Since we lost to Green Bay (barely) in the season opener, it’s our turn to win. My reasoning for this is that the winning team thinks they should do everything the same and they will win again. But the losing team knows that they need to do things differently if they want a different outcome. So the losing team ends up better prepared for the re-match. Plus, the losing team has a revenge motive. Like I said, it’s just a theory, and it’s not true everytime (just ask the steelers / ravens). But I think we have the upper hand on Green Bay when we play them again.

Our fat punk kicker, Garrett Hartley, missed a game-winner and we lost for the second week in a row - Scott Fujita in 2009

by Ragin Who Dat on Nov 22, 2011 9:49 AM CST up reply actions  

Plus the 49ers defense scares me, lol.

Our fat punk kicker, Garrett Hartley, missed a game-winner and we lost for the second week in a row - Scott Fujita in 2009

by Ragin Who Dat on Nov 22, 2011 9:50 AM CST up reply actions  

That actually happens, a lot.

by Dan Kelly on Nov 22, 2011 9:53 AM CST up reply actions  

Green Bay barely won Tampa Bay Sunday.

I was rooting for the Bucs. Thought the Bucs had that one. Looks like the Pack is going a bit downhill lately. On Thanksgiving the Lions win by at least 14. Then the following week, the Lions lose big time in that Mercedes Dome.

by tommy v on Nov 22, 2011 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

IMO

If Tampa would have been able to block that punt on GB’s first possession, or if not blocked, at least prevent them from gaining the first, that game would have turned out quite a bit differently.

That was the key play of the game to me.

I like Hamburgers!

by Grumps on Nov 22, 2011 12:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Easy, tommy. You’re already on the list.

I hope she's happy, old Clapper too.

by stujo4 on Nov 22, 2011 1:27 PM CST up reply actions  

If the top 4 seeds win…

I thought the 4th seed plays the 1st seed.

by Dan Kelly on Nov 22, 2011 9:53 AM CST up reply actions  

They do.

-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.

by jeff.l.b on Nov 22, 2011 11:29 AM CST up reply actions  

compared to 2009 Saints

How does this team compare to the 2009 team at this stage?

by whodatcat on Nov 23, 2011 1:40 AM CST reply actions  

Welcome to CSC!! Thanks for contributing!

→ Someone will be along shortly to recommend a profile pic.

by Dan Kelly on Nov 23, 2011 10:19 AM CST up reply actions  

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