Preston's Buccaneers @ Saints Preview: Running To Redemption
by Preston J. Gary, Jr. on Nov 5, 2011 6:00 AM CDT
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PrintIf you listen to Jeff Duncan, the Saints seemed to be a team that was complacent, ignorant of their underlying problems and without much fire or emotion after Sunday's loss to St. Louis. His "feeling" was that the Saints players (and coaches) acted as though the Rams game was an anomaly, with the attitude of "we're better than that" and "today was just one of those days." He was much troubled by the lack of urgency during (and after) the game and lack of anger and display of passion on the sideline.
I don't disagree that the Saints were emotionally flat and lacked urgency. However, I do not believe the staff or the team overlooked the Rams or didn't prepare adequately for them. I believe the Saints were out-coached, shell-shocked that Plan A wasn't working and the half-time adjustments that were a hallmark of the 2009 season were absent. The Saints simply let the Rams stick around until they found confidence and validated hope; the Saints looked as if someone cast some bad juju on their voodoo doll.
The Rams were the last ranked rush defense going into that game, yet the Saints didn't do much to take advantage of it when the game was close. The Rams were down to their 6th, 7th, and 8th cornerbacks, yet you didn't see the Saints spread them out to get those mismatches. It was so apparent that one of the analysts in the broadcast booth, Tim Ryan, pointed it out on numerous occasions.
Sure, pressure was on Brees for much of the game from the front four defensive linemen. In addition, Steve Spagnolo employed numerous fire blitzes to confuse Drew and nullify Jimmy Graham. What's the solution? As T-Rock suggested, spreading the Rams defense out -- getting into shotgun with multiple receivers split wide and forcing the Rams to defend the field vertically and horizontally -- so that the defensive backs have more field to cover and the pass rushers have further to go to get to Drew (who can get rid of the ball in two seconds). The other answer was committing to the running game against the worst run defense while the game was close. It seemed the Saints had it backwards: they threw out of running formations and ran the predictable plays, like the draw, out of passing formations, with Sproles for example.
Why, you might ask, am I going into great detail about last week's loss? I do so in order to stress that while Drew Brees leads a Top 3 offense in scoring and yardage, and while the Saints lead the NFL in 3rd down conversions and trips to the red zone, their offense can be better. What is common in a majority of the Saints losses during the Brees/Payton era? Turnovers and lack of (successful) balance on offense, as well as a defense that bends till it breaks your heart.
The roster is pretty much set. What I mean by that is the majority of resources are allocated, and no addition will drastically improve the talent on defense. The best way to protect the Saints defense is by giving it a multi-score lead to defend. Gregg Williams blitzes when he doesn't need to anyway, so you might as well make the opponent's offense more one-dimensional to give those blitzes a better chance by building that lead. The next best thing is to keep the defense off the field while the game is close. How do you do that? By running the ball.
Drew is a gunslinger. He's not afraid of failure and he's extremely confident, but he'll take unnecessary chances with the ball. It's part of the package. Since the start of last season, Drew has thrown more interceptions (32) than anyone else in the NFL - that's an undeniable fact. He's tied for second in the NFL (ironically, with Josh Freeman) for most interceptions this season with 10. Drew throws, on average, 43 passes every game, about 10 too many. I love Drew Brees, but if he is ever to win an MVP, he needs to throw the ball less. In short, he needs a running game to fall back on.
When the Saints play a defense that can play man coverage and get pressure with the front four, Drew gets forced into mistakes. When the Saints play a good "Cover 2" defense that plays a form of zone coverage, like Tampa, Drew struggles because the short, high percentage passes (the Saints' substitute for legitimate rushing plays) are nullified by the speedy front seven. So to recap, a man coverage team with a good front four can get pressure on Drew before the deeper routes come open, and a "Tampa 2" or "Cover 2" defense takes away the short passes that help open up the deeper passes in a West Coast offense.
Once again, how do you counter this? By running the ball between the tackles with a legit north/south running back who packs a punch. The Saints are very capable of doing so yet, like a Jason Garrett led offense, they tend to forget this fact and lose patience. I believe this will get cleaned up during the bye week when the staff has the time to do a thorough job of "self scouting." But the problem is a bit of a trend now, so they should just as soon get started against Tampa. The Saints will need to establish a viable rushing threat if they expect to advance in the postseason.
The Saints are playing like a 10-6 team, no doubt about that. Tampa is playing like an 8-8 team, yet they have a chance to sweep the Saints and take the divisional lead on Sunday. The Buccaneers get LaGarrette Blount back, but they are without Earnest Graham. This isn't so bad. Blount is a load, but he lacks the versatility Graham brings. Graham was on pace of 70 receptions and was Freeman's "go to" target in the passing game. Look for Freeman to target Preston Parker and Kellen Winslow. Parker is also a threat in the return game. Mike Williams hasn't played as well as he has last year, but perhaps the bye week helped him regain some of his focus. Benn is another WR looking to get out of his sophomore slump and Luke Stocker will eventually become a very solid tight end.
Tampa has beaten the Saints in New Orleans in 6 out of their last 7 trips to the Dome. You should be very nervous about this game, especially considering Tampa had an extra week to prepare.
What can we expect? We can expect a heavy dose of Blount. We can expect a Tampa offense aiming to look like Atlanta's 2010 version of ball control. The difference is that Freeman plays fearless (much like Drew) and won't hesitate to go deep just on principle, so a careless Gregg Williams all out blitz that never gets to the QB in time will result in a painful 40-yard bomb, whereas Matt Ryan would have just checked it down. What's worse is the "let's try to fool you like we're the Jets with our version of controlled chaos" that always winds up in blown coverage because the Saints lack the athleticism at all three levels to pull it off. Expect this to happen on/to the defense.
I demand feel entitled expect the Saints to shove Chris Ivory down Tampa's throat. Remember the first game against Tampa last season? That's what I expect from the Saints offense. Drew torched Aqib Talib on a few occasions, but he was so successful against that Tampa defense because Ivory was averaging 10 yards a pop to the tune of a buck fifty. That's the formula to beating this Tampa team. Payton, Brees, and Carmichael just have to remember and stick to it. Forget the pop and sizzle of the passing game. POP, then sizzle. Establish the run, then Drew will have easy picking with those seem routes. Establish the run, then the defense won't be able to hedge their bets and disguise coverages because they'll have to decide to respect the run and leave 8 in the box or bring in the nickel back for coverage-- It's only an advantage if you take advantage of it.
After the local and national media were shocked by the Saints performance last week, Drew and others on the team have been adamant about not "overlooking" the Bucs and understanding exactly how important this game is. I believe they'll bring their A game and run to redemption in a 35 to 24 victory.
Stat Time
Offense
2. Saints - 32.5 points per game, 444 yards per game, 6.2 yards per play, 56% 3rd down conversion, 32:34 Time of Possession, -5 turnover margin
15. Bucs - 18.7 PPG, 340 YPG, 5.3 YPP, 40% on 3rd downs, 30:19 TOP, +1 TOM
Passing Offense -
1st. Saints - 327 YPG, 8.0 yards per attempt, 70.6 completion %, 19 TDS, 10 INTS, (30) 20+ yard plays, 19 sacks given up, 100.6 QB Rating
12. Bucs - 240 YPG, 6.3 YPA, 60.9% completion, 7 TDS, 10 INTS, (13) 20+ yard passes, 10 sacks given up, 74.6 QB Rating
Rushing Offense -
11. Saints - 117 YPG, 4.4 yards per carry, 8 TDS, 2 lost fumbles, (5) 20+ yard runs
23. Bucs - 100 YPG, 4.2 YPC, 5 TD, 1 FUM, (4) 20+ yard runs
Defense
15. Saints - 23.6 PPG, 346 YPG, 5.6 YPP, 38% 3rd down, 4 fumble recoveries
29. Bucs - 24.1 PPG, 391 YPG, 6.2 YPP, 34% 3rd down, 6 fumble recoveries
Pass Defense -
11. Saints - 222 YPG, 6.6 YPA, 53.1% completion, 13 TDS, 4 INTS, (19) 20+ yard passes given up, 19 sacks, 83.1 opposing QB rating
26. Bucs - 268 YPG, 8.2 YPA, 59% completion, 11 TDS, 7 INTS, (25) 20+ yard pass plays, 12 sacks, 88.5 QB rating
Rush Defense -
23. Bucs - 123 YPG, 4.5 yards per carry, 7 TDS, 6 fumble recoveries, (8) 20+ yards runs allowed
24. Saints - 124 YPG, 5.5 YPC, 7 TDS, 3 FR, (9) 20+ yard runs
Overall Statistical Comparison: Tampa lacks explosive plays in the passing game, but an overload blitz with cornerbacks giving a 30-yard cushion could change that. The Saints average 0.5 interceptions a game. Can the DB's please stay after practice and spend a little time with the JUGS machine? The Saints are money on 3rd down, and they've taken more trips to the red zone than any other team in the NFL. However, on third and short, they don't do so well, and they settle for too many field goals in the red zone. Freeman and Tampa's offense has been in a slump, and he just lost his leading receiver (dual threat RB Earnest Graham) for the year. In the first matchup, the difference should have been Brees and his group of WR's. The stats point to that this week, however I believe the difference will lie with the team that has more success in the running game.
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You said it..
What killed me about last week was even being down 24 points, the Saints were taking their time in the huddle, moving lethargically back to the line like the game was tied. Of all the things I didn’t understand vs the Rams that was the most baffling. Let’s hope they play with some purpose this time, and never let themselves get in a hole.
i noticed the same..
& that was my main issue whit what we did.. i thought we should have gone no-huddle, 2-minute shotgun & just throwing to the flats.. hoping to get a few intermediate plays..
i keep hearing this concern with the attitude of the players, initiated by the duncan.. report..
i really do think there was a little denial.. we do not get shut down on this offense.. we have turned it over & self-inflict harm before.. sometimes even unforced.. but the stoning the rams did on our offense was hard to believe.. & i think the players just could not digest it right away and chose to dismiss it..
by the 9th plague on Nov 5, 2011 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree with a lot of what you said, but your analysis kind of makes it sound like Brees struggles week after week
or constantly vs certain defensive schemes which is clearly not the case
When the Saints play a defense that can play man coverage and get pressure with the front four, Drew gets forced into mistakes
that’s true of every QB in the NFL- every QB that has played the game. Getting pressure on a QB with 4 linemen is the key to good pass defense. Most teams can’t do it every week. Defending 4-5 receivers with 7 men for 2 seconds is utopia for a defensive coordinator and passing against that defense of 7 defenders with less than 3 seconds to release is every QBs weakness. I think you exaggerate how much Drew struggles. Compared to EVERY other QB in the league, he hardly struggles.
When the Saints play a good “Cover 2” defense that plays a form of zone coverage, like Tampa, Drew struggles because the short, high percentage passes (the Saints’ substitute for legitimate rushing plays) are nullified by the speedy front seven.
although there have been times that Drew has struggled against this, I have seen him eat up “cover 2 defenses.” I think it’s safe to state that with all of Brees success in the passing game,especially the last 5 seasons, if he constantly struggled vs. Tampa 2 defenses he would be regarded around the league as mediocre and on that tier with QBs such as Kolb and DelHomme and JP Losman.
So, I agree that we should run the ball more and have more balance. That seems to be crystal clear to everyone in the universe except Payton, but Brees shortcomings such as INts and turnovers are merely the fact that we pass so much. He leads the NFL in INTs but also passing yards and attempts. It comes with the territory. Marino, Favre, Fouts, etc all had plenty of INTS just to mention a few QBs that had many seasons where passing was primary.
The only QB I can think of with low INTS in a passing offense was McNabb and he was constantly criticised for throwing balls that one- hopped to his receivers since he was so obsessed with not throwing and INT.
If Pro is the opposite of Con, what is the opposite of Progress? Congress!
-Men's Restroom - House of Representatives, Washington, DC
i agree..
just going back to the tampa game.. the yards were there to be taken & they were taken.. the colston int. for example, was thrown into man coverage outside (typical coverage of the tampa-2) the pass was just 1foot too far inside & the corner did a good job shielding colston for the pick.. that’s where the ball needed to go..
the passrush was nowhere near as disrupting as what we saw last week.. the dink & dunk will always be available on this type of defense, provided that the protection holds for just normal time..
they rarely blitz LBs or safeties cause they are part of the center of the filed zone coverage.. so it will be just the front 4 going after the QB.
as a side note to preston.. if you think we are going run heavy, you do not understand how payton thinks..
if there is one thing he is set to prove.. is that his passing offense works no matter what.. & he will prove it this weekend..
by the 9th plague on Nov 5, 2011 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions
Sometimes I feel as if Drew doesn’t want a running game, that he wants to throw it 40+ times a game and win, of course. But like you said the odds of throwing one or more ints increases with the amount of pass plays so we run into trouble. BUT if Drew had an O line that could give him just a little more time I think that no matter what he threw, the int’s would start to decrease. For example – when we won the superbowl in 2009 season, Brees was sacked only 20 times all season…he’s already been on the ground 19 times so far, we havn’t even played game 9 yet. So do I feel like that is the biggest factor, maybe, maybe not, but its certainly HUGE and telling of why Brees is possibly making rash decisions, he’s being rushed. Drew does not like to be rushed.
Whats for dinner, dad?
Wookie Steak.
Is that good?
It's a little chewy.
I’m not sure if DREW wants to throw 40+ times. SP is calling most of the plays. But, he wants to win and he’s a QB and (I hope) he’s confidnent in his abilities, so he’s going to want to throw because that’s what he does.
But… I think you are 100% right in that getting better play out of the o-line is a HUGE factor in improving the entire offense… It will help us do EVERYTHING better.
If the Saints stink up the Joint tomorrow
we can just change the name of the post to “Running on Empty”
But they will not – Go Saints!!!! Raaaaaaaaaahhhhhr!!!!!!!!!
WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!
come on, hansel.. you know we gonna kill them..
i really expect total annihilation.. similar to the bears game, although their QB will probably break containment a couple of times.. he may end up being their leading rusher for the game.. we will completely take blount out of the game..
by the 9th plague on Nov 5, 2011 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd like for the Saints to kill them, but I just don't know anymore
they’re 1-2 in their last 3 – I don’t know what this team is or who’s going to show up
WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!
by Hans Petersen on Nov 5, 2011 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions
btw
I did play the male lead in “Hansel and Gretel” in our 4th grade school play
WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!
by Hans Petersen on Nov 5, 2011 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Glad you specified "male."
(You don’t want to give any of these CSC characters an opening!)
Trying to open a can of beer with a corkscrew only scratches the surface.
by Just 'Nother Day on Nov 6, 2011 1:10 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm sort of worried
having 3 DT’s and 2 LB’s on the injury report. I know nothing serious is wrong with the majority but, yeah. The saints already have a non existent run defense…
Whats for dinner, dad?
Wookie Steak.
Is that good?
It's a little chewy.
No matter who’s in there we can have a good running game as long as the line opens up a hole. Until then it will be a few yards here and there. Also, Drew must continue throwing the ball as much as he does, because if he doesn’t, we will continue to lose games. Running the ball is good at certain times, but you need to pass to get the comfortable lead so that you can run the ball and continue with the pass.
by tommy v on Nov 5, 2011 9:55 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
but Drew, please don't pass up the open check-down and badly force it into coverage downfield!!!
WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!
by Hans Petersen on Nov 5, 2011 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Sean, is that you?
Stop wearing a wishbone where your backbone ought to be. Would you be convicted in court of being a Christian? Happiness is shared, and comes from sharing.
by Preston J. Gary, Jr. on Nov 5, 2011 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions
The following quote is someone from another website I visit, but the point he noticed and wished to share is relevant.
Originally Posted by BigA3723
I was watching Playbook NFC and the same stat that killed us last year is just coming up again. When Brees has thrown more than 40 attempts in a game, he has lost 70% of those regular season games.
Even going further, in Playoffs games WITH 40+ attempts he is 0-3, in playoffs games with LESS THAN 40 attempts, he is 4-0 including SuperBowl!
Brees currently averages 43 attempts per game (this year) and that is exactly what I am hinting towards.
Stop wearing a wishbone where your backbone ought to be. Would you be convicted in court of being a Christian? Happiness is shared, and comes from sharing.
by Preston J. Gary, Jr. on Nov 5, 2011 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Here's another argument I'd like to add to benefit our discussion..
Originally Posted by Saint Droopy
Pat Kirwan said that the Saints have won their last 23 games when they rush for 150+ yards. Telling stat indeed…
However…
WHen we try to run, and cant because our oline isn’t creating any lanes, then we must throw the ball
Last week is a prime example. we ran the ball 20-something times for 50-something yards. Do we continue to run it even though its obvious its not working?
KEep in mind that we have a defense that gives up alot of points so the offense can’t be as patient as say… Baltimore… because we don’t have their defense.
That’s the crux of the issue… Perhaps the Saints need to consider the formation, personnel package, and down and distance tendancies they are running out of. How many times do they line up heavy and throw? How many times do the run out of passing formations? When they run out of passing formations, how many times is it a Daren Sproles draw? When you see a Sproles in the shotgun, do you think “it is probably a draw if it’s going to be a run”? When you see the heavy formation with Ingram or Ivory in the backfield, do you believe it will be a run between the tackles?
My point is that the Saints have made it obvious when they are going to run the ball this year. And in years past, they’ve run right into obvious run blitzes. As good as he was at “self scouting” and breaking tendancies in 2009, we haven’t seen much of that this year. Nor have we seen those great half-time adjustments where they disected what the opponent was doing and came out in the second half to exploit it. Nor have we seen the kind of games like the Jets and Bills match-ups of ’09 where the Saints made a full committment to the run in order to win against a defense that was holding Drew in check because that was what was needed.
Sure, Drew can throw for 300+ yards all day, and sure, the Saints can run well when they have a big lead (which is why they are ranked 11th in rushing offense). But the question, and the reason for pointing out the stat, is can the Saints run CONSISTENTLY when they NEED to on 3rd and short, in goaline, or when playing against an offense that has Drew’s number in a particular game? Can they depend on the running game, or bank on it?
The answer is no, and it has more to do with mentality, philosophy, and committment. I think Payton tries to be too fancy in breaking tendancies that aren’t there by using the wrong personnel in the wrong packages at the wrong times to run the ball and abandons it too quick when that doesn’t work. Just look at how well the Fortyniners look with the same personnel under Harbaugh. They’ve made a committment to kick the other guys backside on the line of scrimmage; they’ve made it a focal point. The Saints have the same talent on BOTH the offensive and defensive lines, but the priority is letting Drew pass the Saints to a lead before turning it over to the run game and letting a defense be efficient once the opponent is one dimensional.
__________________
Stop wearing a wishbone where your backbone ought to be. Would you be convicted in court of being a Christian? Happiness is shared, and comes from sharing.
by Preston J. Gary, Jr. on Nov 5, 2011 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions
That I agree with Hans.
If we don’t get so far behind in this game I think he will use those short open guys. When we’re behind is when he will want to throw the long one to hurry and get back in the game.
or if the brain trust decides that the WHOLE WORLD is expecting us to run so he's going to run a play-action flea flicker
bomb on the first play from scrimmage and it gets picked off – GAAAAA!!!!
WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!
by Hans Petersen on Nov 5, 2011 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Hey! is anyone else having trouble getting nola.com/saints and wwlradio.com/saints to open up in your browsers?
they will not load for me today, and it’s getting frustrating…
WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!
I wouldn't mind if they removed ALL those bells and whistles and idiotic reader comments that are formatted just like paid content posts by their staff
WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!
by Hans Petersen on Nov 5, 2011 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
nola.com/saints doesn't open in my browser at all
but that’s by choice for the reasons you stated. I can’t stand to look at it and it’s painful to try and read. I get enough info here and the comments tend to be better here as well.
Both working for me
INGRAMANIA equals LOMBARDI 2012
by cajuncommando58 on Nov 5, 2011 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
it works fine for me.. but why go there..?
when the plague can school you here..
ha ha..
by the 9th plague on Nov 5, 2011 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
well, I'm trying to collect stories for this afternoon's fleur-de-links...
WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!
by Hans Petersen on Nov 5, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
i know.. i was messing with canu.. who's a regular over there, at nola
is it still kicking you out..?
by the 9th plague on Nov 5, 2011 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
yep, been going on since last night
I can get on the other nola.com pages, just not the Saints forum. It won’t load. Oh well, maybe they’re kicking me out….sigh
Maybe I can help
Link Here
R.I.P. Andy Rooney
by cajuncommando58 on Nov 5, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
You meant the link HERE thing
Dan Kelly showed me…
1. Copy the link
2. Type is some text.
3. Highlight the text.
4. Click the LINK icon (looks like a chain) right above the comment box.
5. Paste in your link.
6. (optional, but should be automatic) Select "open in new window".
7. Click SUBMIT button.
R.I.P. Andy Rooney
by cajuncommando58 on Nov 5, 2011 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
You have taught me well Master
R.I.P. Andy Rooney
by cajuncommando58 on Nov 6, 2011 10:32 AM CST up reply actions
and a braille keyboard with Closed Captioning for the visually impaired?
WIN NOW
WINGRAMANIA!!!!
by Hans Petersen on Nov 6, 2011 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
I think they have to use Lance in more situations.
They’ve been throwing to him, but I think the passing would be better if they’d get him even a little more involved. Of course, everything would be better in the run and pass if the O line could stand their ground, open holes and protect Brees more.
who is this dude on ESPN gameday..? that pitcher.. with a beard like a mop..
picking state.. so has the plague’s respect..
Brian Wilson on SF Giants?
Played for LSU.
Wanna say something? Sign up! It's free!
by Dave Cariello on Nov 5, 2011 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions
The other thing you touched on, sort of
was the Defense not getting turn overs. Well you said it in regards to the saints not turning it over but its the same…Our defense is basically the same as it has been since 2006 however we aren’t getting the turnovers that we once were. In turn when we turn it over its a detrimental thing instead of an equalizing thing…The saints offense can overcome an equality but they can’t seem to overcome a deficiency as well.
If that made sense…
Whats for dinner, dad?
Wookie Steak.
Is that good?
It's a little chewy.
instead of this turnover obsession, maybe we need to get off the field or..
improve our red-zone defense & goal-to-go (we are last in those categories) see dave’s mid-point stats:
by the 9th plague on Nov 5, 2011 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Some body needs to check on Jon
He has been showing idle on my computer since about 4am. Was drinking pretty heavy last night. Only half joking if anybody knows how the get in touch with him. :-(
INGRAMANIA equals LOMBARDI 2012
by cajuncommando58 on Nov 5, 2011 11:21 AM CDT reply actions
Never mind...
Jon has responded.
INGRAMANIA equals LOMBARDI 2012
by cajuncommando58 on Nov 5, 2011 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Pick’Em:
Season Total : 78 wins, 38 losses
Last Week: 10 wins, 3 losses
Average: 10 wins, 5 losses
Last Year: 157 wins, 99 losses
Best Year: 170 wins, 86 losses
This Week’s Picks:
Giants over Patriots – Upset #1, Upset Special – The Giants have had very little success running the ball, Ahmad Bradshaw won’t be playing, and Brandon Jacobs has been a fantasy bust thus far. In addition, they’ll likely be without Hakeem Nicks among other key contributors. The Patriots have very seldom lost two in a row, and Tom Brady has a million game regular season winning streak at home. So why am I picking the Giants? That streak has to end sometime, I don’t like Tom Brady, the Patriots have the 32nd rank in total defense, and I just have a wild hair up my wazoo. So I’ll take the G-Men and Eli Manning to pull off the upset with a Confidence of 1 in Foxboro.
Bills over Jets – The Jets finally figured out their identity. They’ve given Shown Green the ball 20+ times over the last 3 games and finally seem to have things going their way. If the Bills plan to win their division and prove they’re no flash in the pan, this is a must win. I like Ryan Fitzpatrick and think the Bills will be able to run against the Jets and complete balls against DB’s not named Revis, so I’ll take the Bills with a Confidence of 2.
Eagles over Bears – The more I think about this game, the more I think I should give it more confidence points. Phili finally figured it out on defense, and I don’t think Jay Cutler will have time to throw the ball, much less guys to throw to. As good as Matt Forte is, the Eagles realized their offense revolves around Shady McCoy, so I’ll go with the more talented team with a Confidence of 3.
Steelers over Ravens – Until Joe Flacco and Cam Cameron work out their differences, I can’t pick Baltimore in a big game. It’s a shame because Baltimore has a championship defense and one of the best running backs but they get schitzoid on offense. The Steelers are down a big named LB or two, but Big Ben is looking elite with his 3 young WR’s who are getting better each week. I can trust Big Ben when he’s under pressure and taking hits. I can’t trust Flacco the same way, which is why I’m taking the Burgh with a Confidence of 4.
Chiefs over Dolphins – Kansas City has won 4 straight games, turning around about the worst start (after two weeks) I’ve ever seen. Yet they’ve looked UGLY in their wins. Their defense is clicking (minus good play at the safety position), but the offense just looks inept at times. I think Jackie Battle will have a big game because the Chiefs won’t have to keep pace with a high powered Dolphins offense. If any of the winless teams have a chance to win this week, this is it. The Dolphins have been competitive in the majority of their games, only not for a full sixty minutes. That said, I believe they are the worst TEAM in the NFL, so I’ll take the Chiefs with a Confidence of 5.
Rams over Cardinals – Upset #2 – The Rams have confidence, and the Cardinals have John Skelton. Enough said. With a Confidence of 6, I’ll take the Rams to look like they did last year.
Packers over Chargers – If Philip Rivers had a great game in the last month, I’d consider an upset in this spot. Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL in TD passes with only 4 picks in 7 games. I just don’t see a team like the Chargers slowing him down much. With a Confidence of 7, I’ll take the Packers.
Cowboys over Seahawks – I’d love nothing more than to see Dallas self implode. Hopefully it happens, but from a skill position stand point, it’s not even close. Murray should have a big day and the Cowboys should win big. Tarvares Jackson has a chance to go over 300 yards again, so if you need a sleeper WR in fantasy, Seattle has a few you can pick up. I don’t trust Seattle’s rushing attack, but maybe a Leon Washington return comes in handy. I look for the Cowboys to come out fired up and look like world beaters for a week before slumping again with a Confidence of 8.
Bengals over Titans – Upset #3 – The Bengals have a top 10 defense and the Dalton to Green connection is refreshing if you’re a Bengal fan. No one expected either of these teams to do much this year, and unless Chris Johnson looks in the mirror and man’s up, the Titans are going to return to the norm. Perhaps it is time to get Locker some experience. The Titans have been solid on defense, but I’ll like the Bengals defense a little more with a Confidence of 9.
Saints over Bucs – The Saints got a wake-up call. It’s time to stop being cute and learn to dominate and impose their will at the line of scrimmage. Otherwise, they’ll put up big numbers but get booted out of the first round of the playoffs thanks to the inability to run when needed and the predictability of Drew trying to do it all and making an inevitable mistake or two while throwing it 50 times against a team that can get pressure and run the ball. I’ll take the Saints to exact revenge with a Confidence of 10 as a Best Bet.
Raiders over Broncos – Who’s playing quarterback? Who cares… tha Raidas will win regardless because even with Michael Bush, they have the better running game and defense, with a Confidence of 11 as a Best Bet.
Niners over Redskins – It’s time I give San Fran some props. Their defense is playing lights out and under the radar, and Frank Gore has run for 100 yards in each of his last 4 games. Alex Smith learned the definition of efficiency and this team just lines up and whips the other guys butt on both sides of the ball at the line of scrimmage. Everything Mike Singletary envisioned is coming to pass under better leadership. As for the Skins, Mike Shannahan staked his reputation on Grossman and Beck (and his son as offensive coordinator). We’ll see how that turns out as I take the Niners with a Confidence of 12 as a Best Bet.
Texans over Browns – Give Greg Little a little more time. Give Colt McCoy a steady running game and more targets, and they might have a winning season-if they didn’t play in the AFC North. As for this week, I don’t see how the Browns can beat the Madden Curse or the Houston Texans. The Texans are without Andre Johnson, but I’ll take Arian Foster and Ben Tate all day with a Confidence of 13 as a Best Bet.
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by Preston J. Gary, Jr. on Nov 5, 2011 2:05 PM CDT reply actions
I think, as you kind of touched on, that the formations/personnel packages are a problem.
the 3 headed monster has its advantages, but there are disadvantages. When Ingram is in, we don’t throw the ball to Ingam often so there is a tendencey. Similarly, screen pass to PT is one of our best weapons and when he only plays 1/3 of the offensive plays, that’s a lot less downs that the defense doesn’t have to worry as much about a screen pass. I am a huge fan of screen passes; I think they change a whole defense’s approach if they can be run effectively. If you are having problems with pass protection, they can be one of the answer’s to turn things around.
Anyway, I think defenses have a less complicated guessing game when they say one RB in the game vs the other.
If Pro is the opposite of Con, what is the opposite of Progress? Congress!
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That’s my entire point and I am glad someone else notices it too. If we can notice it from our couch, don’t you think the defense has a pretty good idea of what is coming?
Stop wearing a wishbone where your backbone ought to be. Would you be convicted in court of being a Christian? Happiness is shared, and comes from sharing.
by Preston J. Gary, Jr. on Nov 6, 2011 10:46 AM CST up reply actions
yeah, and we don't run any reverses anymore, do we?
seems like we should run more smash mouth plays with a trick like a revers occasionally. we don’t do that lately.
If Pro is the opposite of Con, what is the opposite of Progress? Congress!
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