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Falcons 16 @ Saints 45: A Review of HansDat's Hot Reads

Man, oh man, I am still both buzzing with excitement and emotionally worn out from that action-packed and record-filled Monday evening in the Dome that was the New Orleans Saints 45-16 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.

The Saints now have 12 wins on the season, and are still alive (albeit barely breathing, as they need a highly unlikely Rams win over the 49ers) for the # 2 seed.

But before we can really get into all that talk and future speculation, let's dig into the nuts and bolts of the Falcons game one more time to see how HansDat's Hot Reads turned out.

Falcons vs Saints coverage

Falcons vs Saints recap

Falcons vs Saints box score

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Primary Option: Protect Drew Brees

What I'd Like To See: More of the same from Week 10. Give Brees the protection he needs to keep the offense humming along to victory. Let's keep him sack-free, on his feet, and off the ground (especially out of the clutches of John Abraham, their leading sacker). Heck, maybe he can even sway a few final undecided MVP voters along the way.

From where I was sitting, it seemed that the line and chippers offered Brees excellent protection for most of the night. The Falcons defense notched only one sack, and two QB hits. Brees did a great job of avoiding pressure when it did come, but a few times he held the ball a bit too long, waiting for something to develop.

Since I called for a sack-free game, the best I can do is call this Hot Read partly achieved.

-

Checkdown # 1: Run More And Run Better

What I'd Like To See: Mo' better running than they achieved in Week 10. The Falcons give up just a shade under 97 yards per game, so it won't be easy, but I think they'll need at least 30 attempts and 125+ yards. I'd like to see it early and often to keep the Falcons off-balance, but I also wouldn't mind if most of the carries came at the end as they control the clock to win the game.

I'd have to say that quadrupling their previous 41-yard output counts as mo' better running. The Saints recorded 23 carries for 164 yards (with 84 of those yards coming in the first half). And with averaging 7.1 yards per carry (that's pretty darn efficient) and the team gunning for the passing record for Brees, it's no wonder they didn't reach 30 carries. Well done, Saints!

But given that I specifically called for 30 carries, I must again score this as a Hot Read that was only partially achieved.

-

Checkdown # 2: Third Down Turnaround

What I'd Like To See: At least 60% success on third downs tonight. Put up or go home. It's that simple.

Well, on this Read, the Saints definitely put up (10 of 13 for 77%) and sent the Falcons packing - HARD.

Hot Read: ACHIEVED

-

Safety Valve: Fundamental Tackling

What I'd Like To See: Saint defenders getting to Falcon ball carriers quickly and bringing them down cleanly with good technique. See what you hit, wrap up, and be sure to lift/drive through the ball carrier. Watch their hips - they can't go anywhere without them. If you are the first to arrive, don't go for the hit or strip, let the next guy do that once you have secured the ball carrier and are dragging him down. It will save yardage and my voice.

Well, it wasn't not fun, but it wasn't big fun, either. At times they were right there with clean tackles, other times they missed a bit, and on other tries, I noticed strip attempts by the first man to the ball (Roman Harper) without really trying to make a tackle. They gave up 434 passing yards, but only 35 on the ground, and yielded only 16 points the whole game, so even though they weren't perfect, it wasn't too costly, so what are you gonna do?

I'll tell you what I'll do: call this Hot Read partly achieved, I will.

-

Bonus Hot Read: Be Special On Special Teams

What I'd Like To See: The Saints to be the ones who make that special play break their way. Whether it's a big stop that keeps the Falcons from getting points, a takeaway on a return that snags an extra possession and maybe a short field for the Saints, a big return (maybe for a score), a successful "roxy-roxy" play, or whatever. They just need to end up on the right side of whatever this big play ends up being.

I thought this would be a close game in which a big special teams play was going to make a difference, but the game wasn't even that close at all. There WAS a big special teams play (a 92-yard kickoff return to the Falcons 14-yard line), and someone on the Saints DID make it (Darren Sproles), but it was in the third quarter, when the score was 28-13, and it hardly qualifies as a game changer (the drive itself went nowhere and led to John Kasay's only FG of the game).

So, I can only give this Hot Read partial credit.

* * *

This week, the Saints achieved on 3 out of 5 Hot Reads and still managed to squeak out a 29-point win and take care of the season passing record against the Falcons, so bully for them.

Now let me know what you think of my assessment of the game, my Reads, and their impact.

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I am confused as to what impact the hot reads were to have? Was I supposed to hit my head on the table after I was done reading them? J/K but seriously, yeah I would have liked to see Drew not get sacked, but I was glad to finally have a Sproles finally bring a kick off back to a short field. Jenksgiving did have a takeaway for 6 and that did give us sort of an extra 6 points. But for the rest of the reads, I will have to agree with your assertations.

by Saintsfan75 on Dec 29, 2011 6:22 AM CST reply actions  

impact would be did the Saints level of proficiency at them cause the Saints to win or lose the game, or did they even really matter?

Significant in the win: Third down success, protection of Brees, and the success of the running game.

I’m not sure if I was accurate in my assessment of the tackling, because I didn’t chart individual play-by-play and how the tackling went down, and the special teams big play was so late in the game and only amounted to 3 points in a 29-point win, that I feel they would have won even without that big play. Now, if it had happened earlier in the game, say on the punt after their drive stalled following the 2nd quarter end zone INT, and led to a Saints TD, it would have factored more in the outcome.

I just had a rap with Santa and we took us a little stroll
And all I want for Christmas is the Saints in the Super Bowl

by Hans Petersen on Dec 29, 2011 11:18 AM CST up reply actions  

i hope we can...

squeak out a 29-point win

this week

by nanvinnie on Dec 29, 2011 6:42 AM CST reply actions  

me too - they don't let you put sarcasm font in a fanpost or story

I just had a rap with Santa and we took us a little stroll
And all I want for Christmas is the Saints in the Super Bowl

by Hans Petersen on Dec 29, 2011 11:19 AM CST up reply actions  

Very nice Hans..............

You always have a handle on the way we should be going but from a Saint fan point of view, you were a little tuff on our team. Now, from an Atlanta point if view we were 100% and had no answer for our Saints offence. While we still are all looking for the perfect game, I felt we played the best game of the season aginst Atlanta. I realize the Giants game was pretty close to the very best, but any time we can beat Atlanta like that is as close to perfect as it gets.To me it looks as our Saints have improved every game since the Rams and I now have no doubt that we will see them in the NFCCG aginst whoever. For me there is no one I would rather see blowouts against. Atlanta and Dallas are always the best wins in my opinion and Monday night was pure heaven. I cannot wait to see your hot reads this week and next and if they perfom even close to your prognostications, I will still be in heaven. Keep up the good work my man..

My Magnificent Black and Gold Warriors

by saint-sly on Dec 29, 2011 7:36 AM CST reply actions  

yeah, I struggle with the grading aspect of it

I don’t want to grade myself too easy, and then I look at such a huge successful game on only partially achieving most of the Hot Reads and wonder – am I choosing the wrong areas or setting the bar too high for what counts as “achieved” since they still win easily even when they don’t ace them, or what…

I just had a rap with Santa and we took us a little stroll
And all I want for Christmas is the Saints in the Super Bowl

by Hans Petersen on Dec 29, 2011 11:07 AM CST up reply actions  

look forward to your New Years HR's

3rd down conversion % are improving more and more each home game. Love it when when punting almost take the night off. no drive ending penalties are a big + as well even tho I wanted that horse collar tackle on Brees.

You know Hartman, goodie-two-shoes is fidgeting around like a one-legged cat trying to bury s#!t on a frozen pond, until old Seth fixes him a couple of pink poontang specials. You know, that crazy drink that I fix for stewardesses? Two shots out of that and Hartman is shot to s#!t, freaked out. I mean, I never saw a guy having so much fun and crying at the same time!

by Deep Threat on Dec 29, 2011 8:11 AM CST reply actions  

Hans,

I hope Payton keeps reading your instructions and following them !! Seriously, you nailed it . I will add this- Brees gets rid of the ball as quick as anyone in the NFL. But, you have to be carefuul as a QB and an offense. If EVERY pass
is a very quick hitter where the ball is released in 2.3 seconds- that is a tendency and tendencies can possibly be exploited. So, although it’s great that Brees gets rid of the ball quickly most of the time and frustrates defenses by doing so and being accurate, on some pass plays he has to hold the ball longer to break up the rhythm ( the timing of the defense) so they just don’t jump every route at 2.3 seconds. It opens up deep plays like we saw with Meachem, Colston, etal.

"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"

by Philinwood on Dec 29, 2011 9:23 AM CST reply actions  

yes, a disguised coverage with a well-positioned and quick-reacting safety or LB can get to many of those balls Brees throws

I just had a rap with Santa and we took us a little stroll
And all I want for Christmas is the Saints in the Super Bowl

by Hans Petersen on Dec 29, 2011 11:08 AM CST up reply actions  

we need to build on the success we have had running the ball.

we may play some games outside in conditions that are more suited for running the ball. And, I love Ingram, but I have to admit, the trio of Ivory, PT and Sproles is a better trio right now heading into the playoffs. There is more contrast (between these 3 players) with that trio and actually Ivory is averaging more ypc than Ingram. I know that Ingram is the guy of the future, but right now I’m liking this trio.

"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"

by Philinwood on Dec 29, 2011 9:26 AM CST reply actions  

I also think we've been lucky in the running game in that the only RB to miss significant time is Ingram

with Ivory as a good sub for the same running style and duties – plugging Ivory in for PT or Sproles is not as good a match of similar skill sets. I don’t think Ivory can do what Sproles does in the screen/checkdown game, so if Sproles missed a game, how would they use Ivory as a sub?

I just had a rap with Santa and we took us a little stroll
And all I want for Christmas is the Saints in the Super Bowl

by Hans Petersen on Dec 29, 2011 11:11 AM CST up reply actions  

I dont know about you but,

If Ivory could get" tuned up" on some of the screens and get him in space, he would be a total beast in the offence. Ingram will undoutably become “The man” somewhere down the road but for me right now, Ivory shows the most promise. The nagging little injuries on both of them helps when one is fresh while the other refreshes. I do think the two are the best tandum in the NFL and during the off season and training camp, both will benefit greatly and I only see them getting better for next season. The “Quad Squad” WILL be something to be feared for the next few years and if Brees gets his contract squared away our Saints will lead all other teams for years to come.

My Magnificent Black and Gold Warriors

by saint-sly on Dec 30, 2011 8:21 AM CST up reply actions  

thanks for the feedback, everyone!

I just had a rap with Santa and we took us a little stroll
And all I want for Christmas is the Saints in the Super Bowl

by Hans Petersen on Dec 29, 2011 11:19 AM CST reply actions  

If Sproles missed a game, it would be a big loss.

I think that PT is every bit as good as Sproles in your regular, basic screens. He is also good in check downs- very good, but not as likely to break the long one when it’s a check down like Sproles. Also, Sproles is very good at that outside sweep-type of running play, getting to the edge before the contain can do its job. That would be the hardest to replace.

Hopefully we won’t be without Sproles at all, but we have enough firepower with our receivers and RBs that our offense should be able to prevail. PT would get most of the carries Sproles would normally take IMO, however, if Ivory was just running over people like he has done on occasion, then it could become a heavy dose of Ivory which would be a good thing if it occurred.

"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"

by Philinwood on Dec 29, 2011 12:34 PM CST reply actions  

See my post above P.W.

My Magnificent Black and Gold Warriors

by saint-sly on Dec 30, 2011 8:23 AM CST up reply actions  

here's something else I missed in the game

When I looked at the box score the next day and saw Chris Redman in the passing column, I thought to myself, “When did they put him in the game?” I was completely oblivious to that change when it occurred – did the MNF guys mention it? If so, it must have been when I was manually muting them in my mind…

I just had a rap with Santa and we took us a little stroll
And all I want for Christmas is the Saints in the Super Bowl

by Hans Petersen on Dec 29, 2011 2:06 PM CST reply actions  

It was the final Atlanta drive

After we “ran up the score” on them, they finally waved the white flag and realized continuing to play Matt and think they had a chance was futile.

by FriarBob on Dec 29, 2011 2:34 PM CST up reply actions  

You were 3.5 out of 5

You nailed it on the bonus. You never said the “special” play had to be game-changing. You just said we had to come out on the right side of it. We did so. In fact, depending on where you draw the line on things, we may have done so multiple times. Clearly Sproles’ huge return was a qualifier. But there are other potential qualifiers as well. We turn the ball over and Atlanta gets bupkis… TWICE. We take the ball away and score. We get two separate 4th-and-1 stops. All of those are special plays that either got us extra possessions/yardage or prevented Atlanta from scoring points or both.

by FriarBob on Dec 29, 2011 2:37 PM CST reply actions  

F.B., You would think that Mike Smith would learn by now,

That fourth and one is time to punt, Ha. They have no first downs on a fourth and whatever against our defence this year and seems to be a hard lesson for Smith to accept. I am totally impressed with our “D” in those situations and dont see that changing any time soon. It is very nice to know that Smith fears Brees so much he is now shell shocked and that look on his face after every attempt is “Priceless”. Our Saints are Atlantas worst nightmare and in their heads and they have no confidence right now that they can beat us. I call that the “Big Brother syndrome” cause big brother always beat up on little brother.

My Magnificent Black and Gold Warriors

by saint-sly on Dec 30, 2011 8:37 AM CST up reply actions  

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