FanPost

Success Hangs in the Balance

I've mentioned the importance of a balanced attack many times.  Let's take a closer look at that trend over the first five years of Sean Payton's tenure in New Orleans.

2006 - 580 passing plays (55.1%), 472 rushing plays (44.9%), 10 wins
2007 - 652 passing plays (62.5%), 392 rushing plays (37.5%), 7 wins
2008 - 636 passing plays (61.5%), 398 rushing plays (38.5%), 8 wins
2009 - 544 passing plays (53.8%), 468 rushing plays (46.2%), 13 wins
2010 - 661 passing plays (63.5%), 380 rushing plays (36.5%), 11 wins

As you can see, from one season to the next, for every INCREASE in the percentage (and number) of passing plays, there was a DECREASE in the number of wins.  For every DECREASE in the percentage (and number) of passing plays, there was a INCREASE in the number of wins. 

For every INCREASE in the percentage (and number) of rushing plays, there was a INCREASE in the number of wins.  For every DECREASE in the percentage (and number) of rushing plays, there was a DECREASE in the number of wins.

That's what is known as a DIRECT CORRELATION.

Common Counterpoint #1:  Our RBs were injured this year.  You can't expect the same level of success with lesser backs.

ORLY?  Let's take a look at the statistics behind that argument.

2006 - 3.7309 yards per rushing play, 10 wins
2007 - 3.7398 yards per rushing play, 7 wins
2008 - 4.0050 yards per rushing play, 8 wins
2009 - 4.5000 yards per rushing play, 13 wins
2010 - 3.9974 yards per rushing play, 11 wins

Whether due to injury or just plain not playing up to par, this past season represented the first DECREASE in per attempt production from the running game of the Sean Payton era.  It did NOT represent the first decrease in number of wins, however.  From 2006 to 2007, the running game actually improved (slightly), yet we still managed to lose three more regular season games.  Again, there has yet to be such an exception to a balanced attack, regardless of who is rushing the ball.

Common Counterpoint #2:  Running the ball isn't as important, when you have a QB that completes 70% of his passes.

Fair enough.  Let's take a look at the importance of passing percentage.

2006 - 64.3, 10 wins
2007 - 67.5, 7 wins
2008 - 65.0, 8 wins
2009 - 70.6, 13 wins
2010 - 68.1, 11 wins

Here we find even LESS of a corrulation to winning than we do with yards per carry.  In fact, a wider range of comparative variance than up/down, down/up, up/up, down/down is not possible over a five year span.  Drew Brees has covered the full spectrum there, in terms of improvement/regression, all to varying degrees of success.

Am I saying that a better running game is not congruent winning?  No, I am not.  I would much rather have a stable full of fiery-eyed thoroughbreds, than a half empty vat of glue.  Am I saying that a pinpoint accurate passer should not be considered an asset?  No, I am not.  Had he not thrown twice as many interceptions, I'd take Brees's 68.1%, 11 win (2010) showing over his 64.3%, 11 win (including the Eagles wild card game) (2006) showing in a heartbeat.  

Sean Payton didn't air it out nearly as frequently in 2006, hence the disadvantage opposing defenses were faced with in not knowing what to expect.  One could even argue that we would have won a 12th game that season, had he not inexplicably gone pass happy on a cold, wet field in Chicago.  In light of that, I feel we were EXTREMELY fortunate to match that 11 win total this past season, particularly within 16 games.  Then again, we played our best defense of the Sean Payton era in 2010, so I suppose that helped offset some of that predictability and the interceptions that naturally accompanied it.  

Still, just as a 4.5 yards per carry average in 2009 out of a hodgepodge of UDFAs and/or third down backs is nothing to sneeze at, it's nothing to hang your hat on either.  I think there's still PLENTY of room for improvement on defense, personnel wise.  Defensive coaching?  There isn't anything I would change there.  Gregg Williams is bound to get close to 100% out of whoever he's given to work with.  That said, it's up to Mickey Loomis to provide Williams with the best "100 percenters" money can buy.  Let's face it, Scott Shanle's best does not equal Clay Matthews's best, no matter who's calling the shots. 

On offense, it's ALMOST the opposite.  And by that, I mean there's far LESS room for improvement personnel wise.  Among the few notable exceptions:  a stud running back (preferrably one that's not injury prone) or two, a franchise left tackle and a top flight playmaker among the WRs.  Above all of that, however, would be better balance in Sean Payton's play calling.  Something more akin to the 55/45, 54/46 splits we saw in 2006 and 2009 respectively.  Why?  Because 60/40 or greater pass heavy isn't cutting the mustard.  No matter who the QB and/or RBs are.  Period.

This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.

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