Does Sean Payton Call Too Many Passing Plays?

Obviously the two years with a “spike” in the percentage of run plays are 2006 (39.58%) and 2009 (46.25%), which obviously corresponds to seasons with a better win – loss record (the anomaly being 2010 and its 11 wins).

I think the interesting debate here is whether those seasons in which more wins was achieved was because of running the ball significantly more, or whether the higher run percentage more accurately reflects the fact that the Saints had achieved a significant lead in those games and used its run to run-out the clock.

Somebody with a bit more time can easily analyze this in more detail, but if you quickly look at the number of games the saints won by 14 or more in each of those seasons I believe the numbers fall as follows – 2006 (6 wins); 2007 (4 wins); 2008 (4 wins); 2009 (7 wins); 2010 (4 wins).

So is the spike in percentage of running plays in 2006 and 2009 due more to the additional “blow-out” victories in those years, or do the number of wins reflect the better balance of running plays? Does SP have a baseline percentage of running plays each year of 35 – 38%?

Apologies, more questions less answers – just some food for thought.

My first suggestion would be to go back and recalculate 2006 and 2008’s numbers. You’re considerably off on rushing attempt totals, as well as overall offensive plays run (due to the former):

2006 = 472 rushing plays, NOT 380
2008 = 398 rushing plays, NOT 380

You may also want to check the totals of the other 31 teams in the league. If you’re batting 3 out of 5 on just the Saints, odds are you’ve made 62 more errors across the board.

Hint: look for the number 380. It appears to be your subliminal favorite, as far as understated figures are concerned. This, of course, leads to an even greater corrulation between offensive balance and winning under Payton.

Also, as I’ve brought up on several occasions before, comparing what Payton (or the Saints in general) does/do in comparison to the rest of the league, truly has no bearing on whether or not those approaches are more conducive to success or not. It’s merely going to indicate how closely they’re adhering to league trends. For example, if every team started punting on first down, that wouldn’t make it wise for the Saints to do it, if they’re intentions were indeed to win those games. Further, if EVERY team (including the Saints) did punted on first down, one of those teams would still ultimately win the Super Bowl and the reason they advanced so far (presumably superior punt returners) would become overrated based upon its overall (skewed) commonality.

I realize that’s an extreme example, but it truly does apply to passing, at least more so than it does to running.
historically, I should say. And that’s only because the wiser OCs in the league haven’t bought into the Air Coryell (read: statistically successful, yet ulimately failed) ideology. Despite the growing trend towards pass heavy offenses, the teams that win Super Bowls AREN’T those teams. The highest passing percentage to EVER take home a Lombardi is 57.7 by Tampa Bay and that was nearly a decade ago. So basically, winning football comes down to “striving for balance” versus “hoping 99.9% of the league doesn’t, thereby rendering it moot by mass exclusion” (as was the case in its inverse, when few others besides Dan Fouts were passing like their lives depended on it). Excuse me for preferring to stick to the approach that’s within our own control.

The real CP would never spell "correlation" with a "U.

Ugh. Good catch. I actually make that mistake quite often. Seperate is another I can’t seem to nail. Do a post search for “corrulation” under comments and you’ll see what I mean.

With Brees at the helm, I can understand Payton’s desire to throw the ball so much, and actually agreed with it for a few years. Now though, with a bevy of talented (albeit not mind-boggling) and serviceable backs on the roster, I would definitely like to see a more balanced attack.

Payton doesn’t call ENOUGH passing plays!!!! I want Breesus to have a 6000 yd passing season!!!!

And (un) fortunately with my phone I am never truly unplugged.

Coldpizza, I only made it about 5 sentences in on your first comment. Judging by the length of it (that’s what she said) it seems you have too much time on your hands without me around.

I would say fly up and join us, but I’m sure you wouldn’t want to hang out on the beach all weekend with 4 twenty-something girls…

And the Bruins are going to win tonight btw- and then sweep for the Cup. You’ll have to find another way to help all those poor unwed mothers.

How did the Colts win 10/lose 5 in a 16 game season. Don’t remember any ties.

it appears to me that Payton calls too many pass plays and when there is more balance the team functions better. Most O-Linesman prefer more running plays instead of pass protection non-stop. I’m a big proponent of the concept that if the O Line is playing well, your offense will succeed. If you pass excessively, you are your increasing your chances of the O- Line underperforming.

It seems even more apparent to me because up here most Eagles fans get crazy mad because Andy Reid passes so much and it is a constant topic of controversy – it seems quite obvious that the Eagles play better as a team when they have more balance and are not so top heavy with pass plays.

However, what is sweeter than seeing Colston running under a 40 yarder without breaking stride!!!!!!

YESSSSSS!

Makes Reggie’s 2 yard East/West gallops pretty mundane, no?