An Early Examination of the Saints 2011 Running Back Rotation

I would think that Ingram and Thomas would share 1-2nd down snaps, Where as Ivory would be the short yardage speciaist. Bush would be present on only a few special formations. I would also think that payton would trust Thomas more in the pass protection schemes moreso than Ingram at this point.

First of all, let’s assume 30 carries per game. That’s not far off 2009’s pace of 29.2 (I think 2009 is a better comparison than 2010), and it makes the math easier.

Reggie will get 5 carries per game. That’s about his average, and I think that’s all Payton is going to let him have.

That leaves Ingram, Thomas, and Ivory to split the rest, and I think there are too many variables to list. For instance, Payton is just as likely as any other coach to go with the hot hand…so if Ivory is busting loose at 8 yards a pop, he’ll stay in until the defense proves it can stop him, and the high-priced rookie sits.

When all is said and done, though, I think each of the three will roughly split the 85% of carries that Reggie doesn’t get. Tusk will get a lot of work in the fourth quarter, when we’re ahead and need to pound the ball. Pierre and Ingram (we need a nickname for him) will alternate, since they have much the same skill set. Ingram’s carries might be fewer at the beginning of the season, and climb towards the end as he learns the offense better.

All in all, I think the 2011 season is shaping up to be a repeat of 2009, only better. We have a better Mike Bell (as long as Tusk’s ankle heals fully), two Pierres, and Reggie. Defensive coordinators throughout the league are making appointments with Dr. Melfi.

The drafting of Ingram, in my opinion, most directly effects Thomas

YUP

I’m thinking carries will be up to about 35 per game. With better backs comes higher utilization. Bush won’t be around. Ingram will get about 40% of the workload, putting him at about 225 carries, likely flirting with 1K rushing for the season, barring injury. It won’t be enough to earn him OROY, though I do expect him to be included in that conversation, based on both his name recognition and the team’s overall success, just as Bush was as a rookie. Pierre will chip in with his typical 30%, missing a game or two somewhere along the line. Ivory will be used about 10% of the time he’s active, is bound to have at least one big game against lesser competition — and by “big game”, I mean two runs in excess of 20 yards and extensive use during big lead, “not wanting to risk injury to anyone else” spot duty — and will wind up on IR by Thanksgiving. He’ll be lucky if he cracks 50 touches total. Hamilton or Joique Bell (whichever contributes more on special teams) will ultimately be the fourth RB and probably see about 10% of the carries, also. The remaining 10% will be Brees, whoever our FB is, a few non-RBs … and one “mystery” back who is not yet on the roster. There’s at least one of those every year. This season will be no exception. Including Ivory’s usual 10% of the post-Thanksgiving pie, I’ll put this back right around 10%, as well.

Although I agree with coldpizza mostly, I think Bush is staying because of the kind of coach Sean Payton is…. CUTOUT ALL THE PERCENTAGES & OTHER NUMBERS, Our coach(Master of Misdirection) knows we can win more because of the “X factor” Bush provides. As unproductive as Bush has been in the eyesof the fans/reporters and 99% of America, Coach has faith & is a 1percenter because he understands Bush is STILL a special decoy! HELLO PEOPLE…. Bush DID help us get to the NFC Championship game in his ROOKIE season. Yeah we have Brees but we had Brees(ALL) last season too but not Reggie… Lets NOT fool ourselves folks on how important Bush is to this team. ANY coach in the league would give up 2-3 #1 picks to get Bush because that ONE player can/will change the way a team approach them. Bush is still a “Dynamic” back that requires not just 1 player to watch/guard him. Whatever side Bush lines on, that entire SIDE has to account for him.

The 4 that will be on the roster is Thomas, Ivory, Ingram and Bush with Hamilton and Bell on the practice squad.

If Sean is serious about keeping and using Reggie, then he needs to utilize him in the form of the 2 back rotations like he did when Duece and Reggie were most productive during Reggie’s 1st season. This type of game plan really keeps Defenses guessing and also opens up the passing game.
The good thing about this plan is even without Reggie in the fold, Sean can still do the same thing with Ingram and Pierre.Would actually recommend using this type of approach predominately with Thomas and Ingram. Also Cp I said use them predominately in the fashion not totally.
Sans Bush, and with a healthy Hamilton, and Ivory, use them for the really punishing yards, and short yardage plays saving the health of our main backs.
Of course this is all dependent on who is healthy, and when, whenever the football season actually begins.
What do you all think of this approach?

I doubt that a large rotation will be used. It is more likely that the best/most able runningback is used alongside Reggie. Reggie is a pretty good blocker and I think he’s always going to be in the game plan. I just cannot see the low carry number because I think it will increase fumbles.

While Reggie is not replaceable, pt runs harder. If healthy, Ivory or Gamilton will be next (one of these guys is gone.) Ingram will be last in the rotation, basically waiting for an inevitable injury. Hopefully the guy can learn blocking and plays well during this time.

The only way Ingram outcompetes the incumbents is through superior play during preseason. It could happen, but it’s not likely. I love that Payton is so performance-based in his assessments. The best players play, period.

I’d be surprised if Ingram sees the field early on because he probably will be limited in knowledge of the pays.

we can keep them all but it doesn’t seem likely. Reggie would have to take a serious pay cut and it doesn’t seem like he’ll be willing to do that now. And with the size of his contract he doesn’t have any trade value. So I’m pretty sure Bush will be cut though Ingram makes Thomas expendable. As it was said up top, they have similar skill sets. I love Thomas and what he does but Ingram will do it better. I still think Thomas stays though. Give me Thomas, Ingram, and Ivory healthy and I’ll be farting rainbows.