NFL Draft Grades 2011: Numbers Show Saints Have Best Draft Class
by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 6:00 AM CDT
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PrintWe know the Saints kicked butt in the 2011 NFL Draft last weekend. The fans of Who Dat Nation have spoken and even most experts and analysts have given the Saints high marks for their drafting prowess this year. But how good was it really?
A random and subjective letter grade chosen by fans or pundits just isn't good enough for me. I'm a numbers guy who much prefers something more tangible to wrap my brain around. So I did a little digging and crunched a few numbers in an effort to more accurately pin down the quality of the Saints 2011 draft.
Two websites, NFL.com and the National Football Post, graded nearly every single player individually before the draft ever took place. For NFL.com, their grades were determined a bit ambiguously:
Expert assigned grade based on estimated Draft quality
The National Football Post, however, came up with a significantly more detailed grading system for each player, which can be found on their website.
I took the grades of all the players in each team's draft class and averaged them out. In other words the Colts, who drafted Anthony Castonzo(8.0), Ben Ijalana(7.4), Drake Nevis(6.1), Delone Carter(5.2) and Chris Rucker(4.1), had an average draft grade of 6.160 on NFL.com.
Some players, mostly later-round or small school guys like Nate Bussey, weren't assigned grades before the draft. So I came up with a flat grade to give each of them, based on each website's grading system. For NFL.com, who used a scale between 2.0 and 9.0, I chose to assign ungraded players a 4.0. For National Football Post, who used a scale from 4.0 to 9.0, I used 5.6.
So how did the Saints do in the 2011 NFL Draft after running the numbers? Well, just as everyone has been saying this past week, they killed it. Based on NFL.com's grading system, the Saints came away with the best valued draft class. According to National Football Post, the Saints had the second best behind the Lions. The worst draft class was Seattle.
It's not perfect, of course. These results are obviously still subjective because they're based on dubious individual player grades from these two websites. Also, a teams average is going to get brought down if they had a stockpile of late-round picks. But the similarity of the results from both websites should at least speak for something.
Entire results from across the league can be found below. Let the discussion commence.
| NFL.com | Average | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 8.1 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 4 | 6.383 | ||||||
| Colts | 8 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 6.160 | |||||||
| Broncos | 8.6 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.056 | |||
| Lions | 8.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 4 | 5.980 | |||||||
| Ravens | 8 | 7.5 | 5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 5.863 | ||||
| Browns | 7.8 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 5 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.725 | ||||
| Bengals | 8.6 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 4 | 4 | 5.713 | ||||
| Patriots | 7.9 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5.700 | |||
| Dolphins | 8.1 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 4 | 4 | 5.667 | ||||||
| Cowboys | 8.3 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 4 | 5.663 | ||||
| Giants | 8.5 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 5.550 | ||||
| Bears | 8 | 7.6 | 4 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 5.540 | |||||||
| Cardinals | 8.6 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4 | 6.5 | 4 | 2 | 5.488 | ||||
| Chargers | 8.3 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 4 | 5.488 | ||||
| Falcons | 8.4 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 2 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.483 | ||||||
| Bucs | 7.9 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 6 | 6.2 | 3 | 4 | 3.3 | 5.475 | ||||
| Steelers | 7.9 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 6 | 3.2 | 4 | 5.429 | |||||
| Bills | 8.6 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 4 | 5.378 | |||
| Titans | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5.378 | |||
| Texans | 8.3 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 5.288 | ||||
| Rams | 8.5 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5.275 | ||||
| Jaguars | 8.4 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2 | 4 | 5.220 | |||||||
| Jets | 8.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 4 | 5.217 | ||||||
| Vikings | 6.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 4 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5.210 | ||
| Raiders | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 6 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 4 | 4 | 5.063 | ||||
| Chiefs | 6.9 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 7 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 2 | 3.1 | 2 | 5.044 | |||
| Panthers | 8.1 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 2 | 6 | 4.875 | ||||
| Packers | 7.3 | 7.8 | 5 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5.8 | 4.850 | ||
| Niners | 8.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 2 | 3.8 | 4 | 4.9 | 2 | 4 | 4.760 | ||
| Eagles | 7.6 | 6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 4.582 | |
| Redskins | 8.3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 4.150 |
| Seahawks | 6.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2 | 4 | 3.900 |
| National Football Post | Average | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 8 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 6.660 | |||||||
| Saints | 7.5 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 6.650 | ||||||
| Browns | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6 | 6.5 | 7 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 6.425 | ||||
| Cardinals | 8.5 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6.413 | ||||
| Colts | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 6.400 | |||||||
| Bengals | 8.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 6.300 | ||||
| Bucs | 7 | 7 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.263 | ||||
| Ravens | 7.5 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.263 | ||||
| Cowboys | 8 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 6.200 | ||||
| Broncos | 8 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.167 | |||
| Bears | 7 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.140 | |||||||
| Steelers | 7 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 6.129 | |||||
| Patriots | 6.6 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.122 | |||
| Texans | 7 | 6.3 | 7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 6.113 | ||||
| Giants | 7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.113 | ||||
| Vikings | 6.8 | 7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 6.110 | ||
| Titans | 6.6 | 7 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.067 | |||
| Falcons | 8 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 6.067 | ||||||
| Chiefs | 7 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 6 | 5.6 | 6.056 | |||
| Chargers | 6.8 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 6.038 | ||||
| Eagles | 7 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 6.027 | |
| Raiders | 7 | 5.6 | 6 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.013 | ||||
| Bills | 7 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 6.011 | |||
| Jets | 6.5 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 6.000 | ||||||
| Niners | 7.5 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.980 | ||
| Rams | 8 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.975 | ||||
| Packers | 7 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6 | 5.950 | ||
| Panthers | 6.6 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.950 | ||||
| Jaguars | 6.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.920 | |||||||
| Dolphins | 7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.917 | ||||||
| Redskins | 6.8 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.858 |
| Seahawks | 6.4 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.689 |
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I think us having 2 first round picks really bumped our average up, as it should though. I’d rather buy those 2 powerball tickets that could win the million dollars than 6 scratch-offs that’ll maybe net you $500!
Security in this office park is a joke. Last year, I came to work with my spud gun in a duffel bag. I sat at my desk all day, with a rifle that shoots potatoes at 60 pounds per square inch. Can you imagine if I was deranged?
by GRlZZ on May 9, 2011 6:34 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
LOVE the metaphor.
Canal Street Chronicles-A place of great Saints news and information. Oh and the stuff I write!
Using your formula, had the Vikings stopped selecting players after Christian Ponder and traded away all of their remaining picks, they would have had a better overall draft than us.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
Hey! Who dropped the turd in the punch bowl?
Everybody wants the same thing
To see another birthday
by stujo4 on May 9, 2011 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
or the baby ruth in the swimming pool on Caddy's Day
Win Now...
WINGRAMANIA
by Hans Petersen on May 9, 2011 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions
The average doesn't quite work...
Because our Ricky Williams draft would have been an 8.5 average (or whatever he was rated).
Perhaps total would work better?
Then you’d be awarding teams with more picks, the opposite of what you’re doing as is. The fairest way to do it would have to incorporate both the average number of picks per team (7.9375) and the average player grade (whatever that might be).
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
Why not just exclude the unrated players? Odds are they’re not going to make the rosters anyway.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
I didn't think that was fair
You might have a Marques Colston in there.
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
It’s not fair to rate all unrated players the same, either. Otherwise, every team would have a Marques Colston.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
I agree
It’s a completely flawed system. But I really had no other choice. Not including them in the average seemed a significantly worse option.
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
I don’t know. I just think if you’re choosing to put weight on a particular ratings system and the individuals that instituted that system didn’t think enough of a player to rate him, then they shouldn’t be included. I mean, I could write my own name on an index card and hand it to Roger Goodell. That doesn’t make me as worthy a selection as some potential diamond in the rough from a Div III school.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
I’m suggesting not including them period, btw. As in … the pick never happened. That way, you’re not skewing the overall draft grade.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
I know. I get it.
As in … the pick never happened.
Like I said, that seems an even worse option, because they DID happen.
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Assigning them an arbitrary value is worse than excluding them all together? I don’t understand how.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
I'm going to answer this with a question and then only briefly skim your incredibly long response...
How is excluding them as if they didn’t exist better?
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
BTW
If you DID do it your way, the Saints would still come out on top in the NFL.com rankings. Not sure about the NFP, but probably pretty similar.
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
That doesn’t really surprise me. The fairness of the method used to arrive at the overall rankings is the only thing I was questioning. You can clearly see that the teams with the most picks are gravitating towards the bottom of the chart above. That just doesn’t see right. What if you divide all the rated player totals by 7.9375? As long the greatest number of unrated players on any one team is not higher than the total number of unrated players that went undrafted, every team had the same opportunity to draft nothing but rated players. Every team also had the inherent opportunity to make 7.9375 selections, some just elected to trade their share away, and/or re-sign players that would have otherwise resulted in compensatory picks. Either that or have the default grade = the minimum represented. For example, Nate Bussey (and all other unrated players) are being given a 4.0. Why? Give them a 2.0. Are you just assuming they were just overlooked? What if they were all 1.9s or less and 2.0 is just where they chose to draw the line?
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
Or change the title of the thread to “DOCTORED Numbers Show Saints Have Best Draft Class”. That works, too. :D
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
For example, Nate Bussey (and all other unrated players) are being given a 4.0. Why? Give them a 2.0. Are you just assuming they were just overlooked?
I am assuming that most will turn out to be in the 2.0 range but some will turn out to be 6.0’s or higher.
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
In hindsight, yes. These grades aren’t based on hindsight, though. They’re based on perceived potential going in. Anyone that wasn’t rated probably would have been, had they been viewed as a 6.0 now. Let’s assume they weren’t going to go to the trouble of listing every draft eligible player in the USA. No draft publication/site does. They’re only going to list the best of the best. The players they deem worth mentioning. Yes, maybe there were a few oversights, but you can’t rightly assume that they all were, nor can you rightly assume that Bussey was while others weren’t. Giving them anything higher than the lowest means you’re giving them the benefit of the doubt and that’s not fair. Sure, they may turn out to be a great player. Someone rated a 2.1 might also and you’re not bumping them up 1.9 points.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
fair point
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions
To clarify, I don’t even think giving them all 2.0 (or whatever the low rank is) is fair, but it’s definitely better than throwing them in the middle of the pack. Excluding them all together is still the fairest (overall) methodology, imo.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
Well a 4.0 isn't middle of the pack.
It’s lower than the middle. Which is why I chose it. And I chose 5.6 for NFP because that was the highest grade awarded to a player they deemed would be an undrafted free agent.
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I could write my own name on an index card and hand it to Roger Goodell. That doesn’t make me as worthy a selection as some potential diamond in the rough from a Div III school
Well let’s be serious. That’s not happening. Everyone drafted has a modicum of football talent.
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Just saying, if some team happened to do this, they’d get the same grade another team would get for drafting someone with a pulse.
"I was not on the boat in question" -Darren Sharper
Lions 6.66
Safe to say they made a deal with the devil. No more 0-16 teams please
Peyton, I can eat Oreos faster than you!!!!
Well of course they did. Otherwise, how could sinners have beaten the Saints, even in the short-term?
Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
"Winter is coming"
by jeff.l.b on May 9, 2011 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I see that your shwartz is as big as mine. Now let’s see how well you handle it.
by FriarBob on May 9, 2011 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
And Boom!
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Boom!
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by Dave Cariello on May 9, 2011 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Spaceballs references - I can't get enough of them
Win Now...
WINGRAMANIA
by Hans Petersen on May 9, 2011 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Madden 2012 Online Franchise PS3
Anyone here play Madden on the PS3? Im just trying to find someone from each SBnation site to represent their team for my Madden 2012 online franchise I will be starting when it is released. I am a regular at arrowheadpride so I will be taking the Chiefs ;)
First come first serve so email me fast, my email is rarnone4@aol.com.
Thanks fellas.
by Craignotincalgary on May 9, 2011 2:29 PM CDT reply actions
Two things,
First off: that’s spam.
Secondly, isn’t the PSN still down?
Canal Street Chronicles-A place of great Saints news and information. Oh and the stuff I write!
Dont mention PSN to me right now!
I feel like a crack head trying to go cold turkey!
What in the HELL just happened!?
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