An Interesting Thing About The 49ers
by Philinwood on Jan 11, 2012 8:00 AM CST
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I was just doing some research about the 49ers roster/depth chart, and one thing just jumped out at me off the page. I don't have any bonafide statistical evidence to back this up, but it is my impression after searching a bit, that this team could be setting a record for the team in the history of the NFL to enter the playoffs with the least amount of playoff experience under its belt.
No, this doesn't men a victory is guaranteed by us. No, far from it. Just an interesting characteristic and I would have thought that with all the media coverage , one analyst would have brought this to our attention. They are a very young team, very talented, and many of them have played for several years together- some on only this one team-careers ranging from 1 to 2 to 3 years or 5-8 years or more. Ironically, one of the few players that seems to have abundant experience, having played on at least 3 teams and has played in playoffs, is our ex- center Jon Goodwin.
I am sure Payton is aware of the lack of playoff experience and will try to find a way to take advantage of it if possible.
It could be an achilles heel for them, or it may not be. They really have nothing to lose. Whether they win or lose Saturday, no one is expecting them to win the Super Bowl. It would be great if our Saints could make itbe an achilles heel. But, again, they are a good team and it is unlikely they will just fold. The best we can hope for is they make a few "rookie-type" mistakes and we don't. I liked our chances before I knew this aspect and this just reinforces it a little bit. Anyway, I just thought that was very interesting.
This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.
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Somebody will be along shortly from NN....
To explain how experience does not translate against good defense out-of-doors.
The only thing to negate this is home-field advantage
First time playoff players vs. Superbowl winning players. First year coach vs. Superbowl winning coach. This is a legitimate concern. We are hoping the home crowd can help out by getting rid of the jitters and be quiet on offense. Experience and Drew Brees is the Saints trump card. We need to find a way to get rid of both. Jim Harbaugh has a better way to figure this out than me. I have no idea.
Thank you for that.
That is the first objective comment I have seen from any of your peeps.
I think it may have a little impact, but I can’t say much. We’re talking professionals here. They’ve played in big games at every level.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 12:29 PM CST up reply actions
You guys really don't like
That we pointed out facts about the whole “outdoor on the road” thing, huh?
I’d understand if we made it up. But…we didn’t. We aren’t saying its for sure 100% going to matter, but it’s kind hard to just ignore it.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
by Blank x2 on Jan 11, 2012 6:35 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Not ingnoring it.
That would be ridiculous. But you guys are swinging the pendulum in the opposite direction. I personally, and I’m sure a number of Saints fans agree with me, that it’s being blown a bit out of proportion. It’s not like the Saints are vampires and will burst into flames as soon as the sun hits them, and it’s not like these guys haven’t played football outdoors (practice facility is outdoors, for the record). The numbers support the claim that they’re a little worse in the elements, but I certainly don’t think it’s going to affect the game all that much.
And if the best homefield advantage
Niners fans can muster is a slight breeze and some damp grass, you guys need to get the wine drinkers out of Candlestick and replace them with some beer swilling maniacs ready to make some noise for their team.
First playoff game in a decade....
Got a good feeling they’ll be at least a few rowdy drunks at The Stick.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
by Blank x2 on Jan 11, 2012 8:29 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Rowdy drunks-our kinda fans! :)
"Move over Marino, there's a new Brees coming through town!"-Jim Henderson
Fans?
Or citizens? LoL
P.S. I love New Orleans. Party Capitol of the USA no doubt.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
Life's too short not to be living it.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
there are other factors that go into winning and losing besides just indoor vs outdoors.
I hope and pray that your defense thinks the same way you guys do… they’ll never see the train baring down on them until it’s too late.
of course, I give your defense more credit than that… so, they’ll be as prepared as they can be.
they wont, don't worry
I hope and pray that your defense thinks the same way you guys do
Maslow's theory of higher needs does not apply to Patrick Willis. He only has two needs: tackling people and finding people to tackle.
It's fine.
It’s not that we don’t like anyone pointing out where we might have problems. It’s the smug assurance that these things will ultimately be too much for the Saints. That’s all. Some of you aren’t saying 100%, but most of you are arguing the same thing with little or no concession that these things may not be as decisive as you think. I’m sure there is weariness with Saints fans who seem to be smug as well.
"I am a Saints player. Look, sir" Patrick Robinson
by CrazyforColston on Jan 11, 2012 6:58 PM CST up reply actions
You pointed out stats, not facts.
Your sample sizes are too small, and based on random rather than conditional probabilities. So I don’t have a problem with you pointing out stats (until you crossed the 2,000-times barrier), but I personally disagree with anyone pulling out conclusions as fact based on those statistics. I consider your anecdotal comments much more helpful.
Statistics is a reflection of facts.
Cold, hard facts.
“Playing at Candlestick would not matter.” is an opinion.
“Saints score on average X points under conditions Y, which is much less then under condition Z” is a fact.
It was 22 – 22 with a minute to play last year. That’s a fact. “Oh, but our team is completely different, even with the same quarterback, coach and everything else of importance” is an opinion.
Thank you.
Love to know why all the Saints fans think we are saying because they aren’t as effective on the road outdoors, it means will will bulldoze them.
If you guys can’t see a fact in front of your face, and you choose to ignore it, that’s your problem. But don’t think we re being cocky just by pointing it out.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
Not all Saints fans said that. But don't let the hyperbole slow you down.
A statistic is not a fact. If the process were random (not conditional), and the sample size sufficient (no way is only 4 games sufficient), then your statistics would have a decent chance of reflecting what is going on.
You weren’t considered cocky for pointing out the statistic. You were considered cocky for mentioning it a couple thousand times on our blog, with the mistaken belief that statistics = facts.
What are you talking about?
Statistic is not a fact?
WUT? The heck?
A function of facts is a not a fact?
Maybe you are confusing inferential and descriptive statistics?
Facts can also be mere coincidence.
I don’t think that’s the case here, but it does illustrate that too much can be made of them. That, I think, is the case here. My shoes are black. A completely factual statement, but it has little to no bearing on much of anything.
Indeed.
Translating statistics into predictions is part science and part art.
But statistics are facts. You can not dismiss them, you have to explain them.
Actually, I find it extremely easy to dismiss them...
When the samples are too small, or the variables (like injuries) are not properly controlled, or when results from a number of independent variables are conditional rather than random.
The two arenas where statistics are most commonly abused:
Politics and sports. The mindless use of statistics in football is especially misleading, largely because actually accruing a meaningful sample size (particularly in a single season) is virtually impossible.
This isn't about rules, it's about manners. Now there's no rule that says that I cant come over here and fart on your entree. But I don't do it. Why? Because it's not good manners.
Here's another cold, hard fact
That game last year that was 22-22 with a minute to play? That was last year.
The present Saints, like the present 49ers, are a much better team. What happened last year in no way indicates what will—or even might—happen this year.
The fact is: nobody knows what will happen. But being fans, we take wild-ass guesses. One way or another, someone is going to win…and when that happens, one side or the other is going to be jumping up and down shouting “Told you!” Like we’re prophets or something.
Let’s just enjoy the damn game.
"Sinn Féin, motherf*****s!"
by MtnExile on Jan 11, 2012 8:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Good thing we've been pointing out facts from this year.
It may not matter, but it is a fact. Be awesome if even one of you understood we are simply pointing out a fact.
God, it’s tiring having to repeat yourself 638 times.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
This doesn't make sense to me.
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
then dont repeat yourself
weve drove the conversation over the damn cliff.
--- I don't miss the alcohol as much as I miss having the built in reason on why I'm nekkid in public.
--- I used to want to be an inspiration to my son. now i just hope to be a dire warning.
--- just two men and a dog making candles
--- I know i'll win my battles though i fear we'll lose the war
--- if you find yourself in a fair fight you failed in planning.
Could you please repeat that?
I wasn’t listening.
This isn't about rules, it's about manners. Now there's no rule that says that I cant come over here and fart on your entree. But I don't do it. Why? Because it's not good manners.
Enjoy the game?
I am going to have a frigging heart attack. My wife is planning on taking kids somewhere else.
Enjoy the game.. pfft.
;)
Ha. My wife takes the kids to her mother’s house during Saints games.
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 11, 2012 11:04 PM CST up reply actions
Also...
I should say that nothing anybody is posting here is all that relentlessly smug. It’s the drumbeat and in particular that whole “can’t play outdoors” thing. It’s not what you are saying specifically but it’s become a mindless retort. It’s become absurd, like if we feel a raindrop we’ll collapse or Oh NOES! it’s GRASSS!
"I am a Saints player. Look, sir" Patrick Robinson
by CrazyforColston on Jan 11, 2012 7:10 PM CST up reply actions
I'm going to start getting smug about it.
“Grass doesn’t make a 16th ranked pass defense any more likely to succeed against a number one pass offense, as much as Niner fans would like it to be so.” Honestly, if any kind of moderately slippery surface should strike fear into anyone’s heart, it’d be a DB who has to make sudden and unexpected direction changes.
Do I have to go to every comment from a Saints fan and write:
WE NEVER SAID IT WOULD DECIDE THE GAME. WE ARE POINTING OUT A FACT FROM THIS SEASON. WHY IS THAT SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND?
WE NEVER SAID IT WOULD DECIDE THE GAME. WE ARE POINTING OUT A FACT FROM THIS SEASON. WHY IS THAT SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND?
WE NEVER SAID IT WOULD DECIDE THE GAME. WE ARE POINTING OUT A FACT FROM THIS SEASON. WHY IS THAT SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND?
WE NEVER SAID IT WOULD DECIDE THE GAME. WE ARE POINTING OUT A FACT FROM THIS SEASON. WHY IS THAT SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND?
Any time that may sink in with you, let me know. Hopefully someday you will understand what simply “pointing out a fact” means. Maybe. Hopefully.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
It’s simply pointing out the same fact over…and over…
I’m just staying away from these threads. There’s nothing value added to reading them anymore. No entertainment value, no news, nothing.
I wish you guys the best of luck Saturday, and I hope for no injuries, and a well refereed game.
"Move over Marino, there's a new Brees coming through town!"-Jim Henderson
Same to you.
Time to drink now. A lot. LoL
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
All caps scare me.
But not playing on grass.
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 11, 2012 11:06 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'll laugh my bum off
when a Niners DB slips on some moist grass attempting to defend a double move and gives up a touchdown.
I apologize if I struck a nerve.
Facts are awesome. Some facts, when focused on to an obsessive extent, can be comforting. But reality as a whole when viewed from multiple perspectives and defined by a multitude of facts, can be a hard, cruel mistress.
Go to all of these pages.
Everytime we point out anything, your folks revert to this.
We mention it may deter but won’t derail us, and your folks refute that (Likely because you have some fear of actually agreeing with something we say).
Then they repost how we can’t play outdoors. It’s ya’lls response to everything.
We get it. We’re a dome team. I understand. You’re not Lambeau though. You’re the stick. You will have a home field advantage and maybe a little more with the wind. Drew WILL throw for 300+, we WILL rush for 100+, and if we don’t turn the ball over, then you better hope your offense can keep up. Quote me.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 12:37 PM CST up reply actions
I'm just a simple caveman lawyer.
Your capital letters confuse and scare me.
This isn't about rules, it's about manners. Now there's no rule that says that I cant come over here and fart on your entree. But I don't do it. Why? Because it's not good manners.
Hmmm...
Let beat them to it.
this team could be setting a record for the team in the history of the NFL to enter the playoffs with the least amount of playoff experience under its belt.
You obviously weren’t born back when the 49’ers constantly trash our playoff hopes on the way to 4 SB wins.
Drew Brees....MVS Most Valuable Saint! Who Dat!!!
by cajuncommando58 on Jan 11, 2012 12:45 PM CST reply actions
I surely was-but
most teams, including those Saints teams, would have some players that left other teams and had playoff experience in the past. Such as Jim Everett, Eric Allen, etc. This team is so scarec in playoff experience, and, with the new format and the free agency thing, that is a rare situation.
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
I for one , remember those days!!!
"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading" Henny Youngman
by CaddoCoonass on Jan 11, 2012 8:00 PM CST up reply actions
Actually, I would say only this
The 49ers don’t have a lot of experience. True. But, they have Harbaugh, a legit coach of the year at the helm, and if anyone can give the 49ers young roster the confidence they need to play their best, it’s him.
And, CC58, I remember those days. I’ve got family from Jefferson Parish, so I’ve always had a soft spot for the Saints. Which I will ignore entirely on Saturday.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 11, 2012 12:53 PM CST reply actions
I think our 1981 team had less experience actually
But this isn’t 1981 :)
I honestly don’t know how much of an effect this will have on us. Home field and a bye week should beneficial though I think. I would tend to think that experience would be more beneficial in the week of preparation than the actual game. With increased media attention and guys savoring the moment, it may detract from their normal preparation that got a team into the postseason. Thus this would cause them to come out flat and not play a good game.
I’m more more concerned though with Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense than each team’s playoff experience. Once the whistle blows, it’s still a football game and we’ve got a hell of a team to try and defeat.
"We ask no quarter, we give no quarter" - Jim Harbaugh
In 2009, when we reached the Super Bowl, everyone made an issue out of us not having been there before. But it was somehow a positive. “They don’t have the fear of failure, since they’ve never lost a big game like this.”
Now, somehow, our experience in the playoffs is also a positive. “They’ve been there before, they know how to act.”
Narratives. Not everything needs to fit one.
trapped in grammar and calendars.
Jim Harbaugh has no NFL Playoff coaching experience to my knowledge
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
At the same time he has plenty of NFL Playoff playing experience...not like he's flying blind.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
Jim Harbaugh had no NFL coaching experience before the season
Did not slow him down
by mcwagner on Jan 11, 2012 7:51 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Touche
Well stated.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 12:38 PM CST up reply actions
I'll even make you green for that one.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 12:38 PM CST up reply actions
Uhhh
I don’t know if I want an explanation of this comment.
Ha.
I like Hamburgers!
Uh oh...better put an Asterisk on it.
Jim Tomsula
Winningest coach in 49er history (1-0). Also, probably the best dline coach in the league.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
I don’t get it…he looks nothing like Ron Jeremy outside of having a mustache. He does look like a much younger Matt Millen, however. And no…I’m not making a slight on your coach. You said he’s the best D-line coach in the league…undoubted homerism…but I have no doubt he’s an excellent coach.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
Yea
The picture below with the open shirt is a better representation. I just liked the way he looks in this one.
There’s certainly some homerism, but you can make the argument he is one of the best in the league (I did say probably). I mean we lost a guy like Franklin and people thought it was going to be a huge loss and there’s been no drop off. Soap changed to the NT this year and has played just fine. Ray McDonald has turned into a full time starter that’s been very productive.
It isn’t just plain blind homerism. I’m not real sure anyone keeps a list of best dline coaches anyway.
Attack this day with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. ~ Jack Harbaugh
Maybe...just maybe...
The Ron Jeremy reference relates to the party in his pants. Singletary apparently dropped his pants in the locker room, maybe Jim joined in.
And a legend was born.
I like Hamburgers!
Uh oh...better put an Asterisk on it.
Ok..that picture he looks a little more like him….I think it’s the opened shirt.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
No, its the thing he does to people.
Not the shirt.
I'm not talking about SB experience. Most players and teams are scant on that experience.
I’m talking about PLaYOFF experience. PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS (lol) when we went to the playoffs and SB in 2009, we had that trial run in 2006 and came up short. We were good enough to make it to the super bowl but we fell short in Chicago. There were tons of players that played in both 2006 and 2009 for the Saints-Brees, Colston, Bush,Shanle (I think) , Harper, Goodwin, Stinchcomb, lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Reis, etc and that playoff experience was invaluable.
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
we won, duh
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
So there was a direct correlation between a few players having played in the playoffs before and us winning the Super Bowl?
trapped in grammar and calendars.
There was obviously a correlation.
But not necessarily any causal relationship.
Have you met CP?
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
we would not have won the Super Bowl without the playoff experience that we had under our belt
we don’t make the big plays such as the Ambush and Porter’s INT and the TDs because that takes huge composure which comes from experience.
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
That is some nonsense.
trapped in grammar and calendars.
by Jay Preece on Jan 12, 2012 9:46 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
do you know anything about football?
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
Each team consists of a maximum of eleven players (excluding substitutes), one of whom must be the goalkeeper. Goalkeepers are the only players allowed to play the ball with their hands or arms, provided they do so within the penalty area in front of their own goal.
trapped in grammar and calendars.
He said football
Not Pansy-A**-Europeans-run-around-and-kick-a-ball-for-an-hour-and-a-half
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
Oh, so that’s what it’s called.
Do I need to sarcasm font everything for you, buddy?
trapped in grammar and calendars.
Nah.
Just expressing my disgust for that hobby.
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
Let's see--there are three rings at each end of the field
and 2 flying basketballs, and Jason David is the evil wizard who shall not be named…………………..
Flagged.
HWSNB SHALL NOT BE NAMED!!!
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
Remember that one cornerback who used to play for the Saints and came from the Colts originally?
He wore 42 and played for few seasons.
What was that guy’s name?
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 14, 2012 2:45 AM CST up reply actions
I think coaching and playing have a little bit of difference
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
if his starting QB had as much NFL playoff PLAYING experience as Harbaugh
they would be in better shape. Alex Smith is a rookie to the playoffs and was a pretty horrible QB until this year.
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
Here's the REAL question!
Who do you think will win the TOP battle?
We all know whoever wins that battle automatically wins the game
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
LMAO
TOP FTW!
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 12:39 PM CST up reply actions
Playoffs need a 6th gear
An interesting article regarding Tom Brady and the Patriots in the playoffs. Now, it’s not about either the Saints or the 49ers, of course; but it touches on an essential truth: some people (usually winners) have the ability to hit a higher gear in big games (that’s what makes Brady so cranky this time of year). The article doesn’t go into detail, but here’s the truth: that ability is often learned behavior, and confidence and experience play a big part in it. If you have little playoff experience, you often simply don’t get it; if you have a lot, or experience at a high level, you do. You know you have to ramp up your game, that doing the same thing the same way isn’t going to get it done.
Brady understands that. So does Brees. So do all of the veterans who make up the core of the Saints. Does Smith (pick your Smith)? Does Willis? Do any of the 49ers, except Jonathan Goodwin? We’ll see.
"Sinn Féin, motherf*****s!"
by MtnExile on Jan 12, 2012 8:41 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I agree, expereience is priceless in many ways
we were a very good 2006 team- without experience.
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
Here's why the Saints win:
If they lose, they, as players, will consider this season a failure and a waste.
If the Niners lose, they go home perfectly happy, and consider their season a success and something to build on in the future.
If you want to play the experience card, that’s the spin I’d put on it.
Okay...
Browser just freaked out and posted all my comments twice. So sorry about that. No idea what the hell happened.
Can't believe CP has been absent fromall the Stats comments all week...
I’m tired of all the Stats…can I get a hamburger?!?!
Drew Brees....MVS Most Valuable Saint! Who Dat!!!
by cajuncommando58 on Jan 13, 2012 11:06 AM CST reply actions
Sorry, CC, she got the last one.
"/>
Maybe you’d prefer a hot dog?
Just be thankful I didn’t post some of the images I found for hot dog. I may not be able to sleep tonight (Make it stop, dear God, make it stop!!!).
This isn't about rules, it's about manners. Now there's no rule that says that I cant come over here and fart on your entree. But I don't do it. Why? Because it's not good manners.
I swear you got the hamburger picture straight out of my dreams.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 14, 2012 2:46 AM CST up reply actions
You didn't like the hot dog pic?
Nobody appreciates a good hot dog anymore. Not like it was a Lucky Dog or anything.
This isn't about rules, it's about manners. Now there's no rule that says that I cant come over here and fart on your entree. But I don't do it. Why? Because it's not good manners.
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