So you wanna talk about defense, huh?

by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 11, 2012 2:32 PM CST

It seems that every day, a new article or blog post is written talking about the vaunted San Francisco defense slowing down our record-setting offense. And that is the only thing that most people are talking about with this matchup. Well, I'd like to follow up on Dave's wonderful article from last week by breaking down what I think will be a determining factor in this weekend's game between the Saints and the 49ers. Read past the jump to see more...

If you followed the link to Dave's fan post from last week, you can guess that I'm talking about 3rd down conversions. Here are some stats that I find quite interesting:

San Francisco:

3rd down off: 29.4%

3rd down def: 35.2%

Red zone offense TD percentage: 40.74%

New Orleans:

3rd down off: 56.7%

3rd down def: 33.2%

Red zone offense TD percentage: 59.26%

The defenses are pretty close, but the offenses show a world of difference. I added in the red zone percentages on offense to give a good indication of what to expect when the teams do move the chains. I know this is only one set of stats that is out there, but it is the one set that I have not seen anybody really analyze for this matchup and thought it was worth looking at.

Poll

Do you think the 3rd down conversion percentages will hold for this game and have a major impact?

Yes

44 votes

No

5 votes

Cheeseburgers

18 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.

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Comments

You do handily exclude red zone defense TD percentage. For the sake of clarity:

Saints: 62.79% (31st in league)

49ers: 41.18% (fourth in league)

trapped in grammar and calendars.

by Jay Preece on Jan 11, 2012 6:31 PM CST reply actions

percentages are nice, but how many actual TDs make up those percentages?

Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.

by Hans Petersen on Jan 11, 2012 9:33 PM CST up reply actions

please allow myself to answer myself as best I can

www.teamrankings.com

Saints – 4.8 red zone scoring attempts per game (scoring TDs 2.8 times per game), home 5.4/3.8, road 4.0/1.8

Niners – 3.4/1.4, home – 4.2/1.6, road – 2.5/1.1

Looks like this stat is about a wash:

Niners score 1.6 RZ TDs per game @ home
Saints score 1.8 RZ TDs per game on the road

Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.

by Hans Petersen on Jan 11, 2012 9:44 PM CST up reply actions

GAAAAA!!!

Why won’t these numbers just tell us who’s going to win?

I wish it was Saturday – don’t know if I will make it….someone offered me some Royal Crown, but I don’t think I like that potent potable

might have to go with bourbon or beer

although I did get a nice bottle of red wine for Christmas…

Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.

by Hans Petersen on Jan 11, 2012 9:46 PM CST up reply actions

Uuuuuhhhh . . . I hope you meant Crown Royal.

Every day I'm shufflin'!

by Just 'Nother Day on Jan 12, 2012 3:00 AM CST up reply actions

yeah, I meant the other stuff that comes in the bottle with the purple/gold draw string bag that's good for holding marbles

Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.

by Hans Petersen on Jan 12, 2012 8:02 AM CST up reply actions

Chivas?

by singleblow on Jan 12, 2012 8:05 AM CST up reply actions

doesn't crown royal come in the purple velvety bag

Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.

by Hans Petersen on Jan 12, 2012 7:26 PM CST up reply actions

it does indeed… the ‘standard’ kind.

there’s a “Black” version that comes in a block and gold bag.

It’s not the size of your TOP, it’s how you use it!

by Dan Kelly on Jan 12, 2012 8:13 PM CST up reply actions

I will reiterate

When you drink Crown, you get a little bit of Grumps in each sip.

Savor my flavor.

I like Hamburgers!
Uh oh...better put an Asterisk on it.

by Grumps on Jan 13, 2012 10:36 AM CST up reply actions

What do I get when I drink Tequilla?

by Ship on Jan 13, 2012 11:10 AM CST up reply actions

Ever heard of a Donkey show?

Nuff’ said.

I like Hamburgers!
Uh oh...better put an Asterisk on it.

by Grumps on Jan 13, 2012 12:08 PM CST up reply actions

What the heck

why not have both! (Yeech!!!)

Every day I'm shufflin'!

by Just 'Nother Day on Jan 12, 2012 2:39 PM CST up reply actions

I've never had the one on the left, I've occasionally enjoyed the one on the right, and I'm scared of the one in the middle

Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.

by Hans Petersen on Jan 12, 2012 7:27 PM CST up reply actions

RC is disgusting

I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.

by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 14, 2012 2:38 AM CST up reply actions

Great for holding your work stuff if you’re in the service industry. Every restaurant employees best friend.

trapped in grammar and calendars.

by Jay Preece on Jan 12, 2012 10:15 PM CST up reply actions

aw, crap I brought offensive stats to a "defense" pot-luck above - sorry - see below for defense

Saints allow: 2.5 RZ scoring attempts per game (allowing 1.6 RZ TDs per game), home 2.7/1.4, road 2.4/1.8

Niners allow: 2.1/0.9 , home 1.5/0.4, road 2.8/1.4

Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.

by Hans Petersen on Jan 11, 2012 9:54 PM CST up reply actions

I don’t really care. It bothered me that our OP left out a stat that doesn’t favor his team.

trapped in grammar and calendars.

by Jay Preece on Jan 11, 2012 10:33 PM CST up reply actions

Well, let me add some more to talk about

In the last three games, here is what I see:

SF red zone defense: 66.67% TDs
Saints red zone defense: 55.56% TDs

So, going on the basis of peaking at the right time, we’re improving in this area and SF is getting worse.

by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 7:04 AM CST up reply actions

Also in the last three games...

SF rushing defense: 106.3 yards per game
NO rushing defense: 77.0 yards per game

Something looks backwards there, right?

by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 7:11 AM CST up reply actions

And the yards per attempt for SF in those three games is 4.6, while ours is 4.8

by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 7:12 AM CST up reply actions

FYI

RB’s played in the last 3 games:
SF: Banged up Mendenhall, Marshawn Lynch and Kendall Hunter(WHO?)
NO: Adrian Peterson(First game back from injury), Michael Turner and Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams/Cam Newton

I think they played tougher competition then us

Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!

by Alex Swift on Jan 12, 2012 7:16 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Um.....

Kendall Hunter plays FOR San Francisco……..

Hope you didn’t wear yourself out with research. LoL

"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."

by Blank x2 on Jan 12, 2012 8:07 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Even I admit that was embarrassing.

-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.

by jeff.l.b on Jan 12, 2012 10:27 AM CST up reply actions

My bad.

Stephen Jackson.

We’ve still maintained a lower RYPG against over the past three games against tougher competition

Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!

by Alex Swift on Jan 12, 2012 10:31 AM CST up reply actions

I dunno

Mend, Jackson, and Lynch vs AP, Turner, and the Carolina Committee is pretty even.

Lynch and Jackson were both BEASTS this year.

I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.

by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions

You can’t pick and choose which stats you think look best.

trapped in grammar and calendars.

by Jay Preece on Jan 12, 2012 9:46 AM CST up reply actions

So you don’t think that there is any such thing as trending? You don’t think looking at the last three regular season games carries any significance? And if you throw out the red zone numbers and look at the third down conversions, it is still quite telling. If the 49ers can’t move the chains, then they can’t get into the red zone to begin with.

And the reason that I put these 3rd down stats up is because of what you are saying here. Nobody has looked at the third down statistics when they talk about this game.

by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 9:58 AM CST up reply actions

1. Did looking at the last three regular season games carry any significance in 2009?

2. Why are we throwing out redzone numbers all of a sudden when you were discussing red zone offense in your OP?

3. Sure, some of all of the above things carry some weight when figuring out how these two teams will perform against each other. But you can’t decide which ones.

trapped in grammar and calendars.

by Jay Preece on Jan 12, 2012 10:04 AM CST up reply actions

Third point was poorly worded. Apologies. I don’t care much to spoil your post, but I do think you’re cherrypicking stats, is all.

trapped in grammar and calendars.

by Jay Preece on Jan 12, 2012 10:11 AM CST up reply actions

Yes, as almost every other post has. So I wanted to add in some that hadn’t been thrown out there by anybody. I’d love for somebody to do a full compilation, but I’m not sure anybody will look at that.

As for 2009, we weren’t playing for seeding in those games. Minnesota had already helped us out there. SF, on the other hand, had to worry about getting the bye.

by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 10:51 AM CST up reply actions

Au contraire. You have a short memory. The Saints-Cowboys game was on a Saturday. Minnesota didn’t lose their third game until the following day. At that point, the Vikings still held the tiebreaker, as one of their three losses was to Pittsburgh, an AFC opponent. It wasn’t until their Monday night loss to Chicago that we wrapped up home field throughout. Both the Dallas and Tampa Bay (Sunday) games were played for seeding.

"I don’t intend to draw any conclusions from any single game." -Brian Burke
"I will now attempt to exclude specific large amounts of TOP from the totals of winning teams, in order to prove that TOP doesn't contribute to winning." -Dr. Jeremy Arkes

by coldpizza on Jan 13, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions

Actually, I was thinking the Cowboys game might have been, but the Tampa game I thought we had. Oh, well.

by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 13, 2012 3:22 PM CST up reply actions

Saints 3rd down offense is just filthy

counting on crowd noise to help out.

Follow @FLPReliableCPR

by mcwagner on Jan 11, 2012 7:56 PM CST reply actions

lol

It’s not the size of your TOP, it’s how you use it!

by Dan Kelly on Jan 11, 2012 8:11 PM CST up reply actions

We pay the yard marker guys to move the chains farther out pre-snap.

They move them back to normal after the ball is spotted.

I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.

by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 3:00 AM CST up reply actions

Had to vote cheeseburgers. Didn’t want to give the niners another useful stat/poll anything.

"Move over Marino, there's a new Brees coming through town!"-Jim Henderson

by BRSaintsFan on Jan 11, 2012 8:54 PM CST reply actions

I think that highlights what's been rattling around in the back of my mind for awhile.

Nice to see something that backs it up. I like it.

by singleblow on Jan 12, 2012 6:46 AM CST reply actions

And, I will have a bacon cheeseburger during the game

by singleblow on Jan 12, 2012 6:46 AM CST up reply actions

Last word on the subject...ever

I will after this, either, just shutup, avoid where the infection lies, or figure you how to block. But, I will have my last word. The point is that I just don’t see the point. I don’t believe in futile efforts and that is nothing more futile than statistics. You an make them say whatever you want. And, especially with a 16 game season. There are not enough data points to say anything all that valid. Or, as the saying goes, Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference. If there is anything more futile and unlikely to change than a fan’s (remember what fan is short for: fanatic) opinion, I’d like to know what it is. So, fine, some people get their kicks that way and I thought that’s why Dave and, it seems, most of the other blogs set up ONE thread for that discussion. I was having a lot of fun there. Of course, I still wasn’t arguing stats. You could probably get me to argue stats if you put a gun to my head. But, I can’t imagine any other way I would waste my time. I’m not that bored ever.

And, don’t get me wrong. I LOVE reading and studying stats to find some crazy way (if necessary) to argue that my team is the BEST and will kick anybooby’s a$$. But, don’t for a minute think that I take it seriously. It’s just another way to have fun. And, that is why I decided to keep my mouth shut after this. I figure nobody can be foolish enough to think that they will ever find conclusive evidence before the fact as to which team is going to win. So, they must be just having fun, also, in some weird way that I can’t, for the life of me, comprehend. I guess arguing, at all, about anything just doesn’t do it for me and, surely, not about nonsense. I guess some people it does.

There is one stat that I can think of that is irrefutable, so far. The sun rises every morning. And, that’s one I would bet my bottom dollar on because, if it doesn’t, I won’t need that dollar, anyways.

Ok, I promise to leave it alone forevermore.

by singleblow on Jan 12, 2012 11:45 AM CST reply actions