Saints Performance in Indoor Games vs. Outdoor Games under Sean Payton

by shipgoalie05 on Jan 12, 2012 10:02 AM CST

Something has really been bugging me this week as the Saints prepare to play the 49ers. All week I've been reading how the Saints offensive production in indoor games has been significantly greater than their production in outdoor games. That's not what bothers me though, what's really bothering me is sample size. The Saints have played only 5 outdoor and 12 indoor games this year, which is an extremely small sample to analyze data with, and frankly, too small to come to any statistically significant conclusion. So I decided to look at the Saints offensive for each game (both regular season and postseason) since Payton and Brees arrived in New Orleans for indoor games vs. outdoor games, and this is what I found.

Venue	Total Yards/Game	Pass Yards/Game	Points/Game	Record
Indoor	412.3	300.31	29.14	45-19(4-0 postseason)
Outdoor	398.75	293.5	28.22	22-14(1-2 postseason)

2 Notes: I decided to only look at passing yards/game because it seems that most of the discussion has surrounded Drew Brees and his ability to move the ball. Additionally, I ignored 3 week 17 games where the Saints starters did not play the entire game, because Mark Brunell and Jamie Martin aren't playing qb on Saturday.

You can see that Saints clearly have performed better on offense while playing indoors under Sean Payton, however, only marginally. On average, the Saints have gained 13.55 more yards, passed for 6.81 more yards, and scored 0.92 more points per games playing indoors. So while the Saints have a great difference in points scored over the course of this season, that simply does not hold up when the sample size is increased to include all games since Payton and Brees arrived. Quite simply, the Saints offensive production does not suffer when they have to play outdoors.

.The only major difference is the win percentage. The Saints have won 70.3% of their indoor games and 61.1% of their outdoor games. Why this is, I'm not exactly sure. It could be anything from turnovers and penalties to the performance of the defense to the play of opponents. But I will say this, if the Saints lose the 49ers on Saturday, it will be because the 49ers are a very good team with one of the best defenses in the league, not because Drew Brees and Co. can't produce when they play outdoors.

This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.

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Comments

What’s our average outdoor TOP?

And what’s the average price of a burger at our outdoor games, compared to indoor?

trapped in grammar and calendars.

by Jay Preece on Jan 12, 2012 11:56 AM CST reply actions

what’s the average price of a burger at our outdoor games, compared to indoor?

I feel quite certain this will be the deciding factor in the game Saturday.

"Move over Marino, there's a new Brees coming through town!"-Jim Henderson

by BRSaintsFan on Jan 12, 2012 3:23 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks for doing this.

Saved me some time. I was planning on putting up something similar tomorrow. Still may, taking into account rushing as well.

by Jimbo03 on Jan 12, 2012 1:39 PM CST reply actions

Re: the win % difference

I’d wager that the Outdoor percentage is lower because those must all be road games (unless they’re neutral site games or ‘home’ games from the Katrina season).

by sammasaaron on Jan 12, 2012 4:23 PM CST reply actions

HA!

Someone will be along shortly from NN to explain how these are not cold hard facts.

by Ship on Jan 12, 2012 7:57 PM CST reply actions

No they will come by and tell you these facts dont mean much

Because they have the #1 running defense in the league
And if you point out they have the #16 passing team in the league they say it wont matter because they will sack Brees
Only problem with that is sacks count in those stats and if they couldn’t stop other teams from passing with the sack why do they think they could stop us

by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 12, 2012 8:57 PM CST up reply actions

#16 passing team=#16 passing defense

it was a typo

by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 12, 2012 8:58 PM CST up reply actions

And that we can't play on grass.

I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.

by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 13, 2012 8:14 AM CST up reply actions

Thats right!

We just eat the grass here in Louisiana…

"When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading" Henny Youngman

by CaddoCoonass on Jan 13, 2012 9:17 PM CST up reply actions

And our offensive stats are inflated

Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!

by Alex Swift on Jan 13, 2012 8:26 AM CST up reply actions

And we haven't played anyone.

I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.

by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 13, 2012 8:39 AM CST up reply actions

shipgoalie05

Now I need you to look up what the 49’ers have done outdoors since 2006 in total yards/game, pass yards/game and points/game and compare the average to the Saints outdoor stats.

by tommy v on Jan 13, 2012 10:02 AM CST reply actions

Although I think it will favor the 49ers

They have a new coaching staff with Harbough I dont think it matters
Thats like looking up the Saints under Haslett whole new coaching staff and philosophy

by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 13, 2012 10:37 AM CST up reply actions

Fail reply

Favor 49ers = favor Saints

by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 13, 2012 10:38 AM CST up reply actions

Well how bout you take the Saints 5 outdoor games this year and compare it to the 49'ers home games this year and see what the average is for,

total yards/game, pass yards/game and points/game.

by tommy v on Jan 13, 2012 11:07 AM CST up reply actions

Or our 8 away games compared to their 8 home games.

by tommy v on Jan 13, 2012 11:11 AM CST up reply actions

If you’re going to do that, you also need to look at yards, passing yards and points ALLOWED. Defense is as much of the game as offense is.

"I don’t intend to draw any conclusions from any single game." -Brian Burke
"I will now attempt to exclude specific large amounts of TOP from the totals of winning teams, in order to prove that TOP doesn't contribute to winning." -Dr. Jeremy Arkes

by coldpizza on Jan 13, 2012 1:02 PM CST up reply actions

I understand Pizza, but that's not what this thread is about.

This is the avg’s for this years Saints 8 away games vs SF’s 8 home games.
Avg. yards: Saints 441.6 SF 324.1
Avg. passing yards: Saints 341.5 SF 195.3
Avg. rushing yards: Saints 100.1 SF 128.9
Avg. points: Saints 27.3 SF 27.6
Looks like it’s pretty even with the points.

by tommy v on Jan 13, 2012 2:09 PM CST reply actions

Saints were 5-3 away.

That’s good for 4th in the league overall. So that makes them the 4th best away team in the NFL.

That stat matters to me as I will take a “W” over some yards or points any day.

You could hold us to 50 yards of offense and a field goal for all I care, so long as we win 3-0.

I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.

by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 14, 2012 1:02 AM CST up reply actions

Also

There’s a reply button

Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!

by Alex Swift on Jan 14, 2012 7:44 AM CST up reply actions

You obviously don’t understand. Averages don’t simply exist on offense.
What about the average for yards AGAINST in those 8 Saints away games vs SF home games?
The 49ers are a team predicated more so on their defense than their offense. If their defense is holding their visiting opponents to fewer points than their offense is scoring, it doesn’t rightly matter how many points their offense is scoring at home. In not including those statistics, all you’re truly seeing as it relates to the Saints, is what Saints’ regular season opponents allowed at home. The 49ers defense is much better than most teams the Saints faced and they proved that yesterday.

by coldpizza on Jan 15, 2012 3:17 AM CST up reply actions

At least in terms of forcing turnovers. They certainly gave up more yards and points than I was expecting. Though to be fair, they were facing a better offense than they probably have all year. That goes both ways.

by coldpizza on Jan 15, 2012 3:20 AM CST up reply actions