Saints and 49ers: Throwing the Stats Away
by Dave Cariello on Jan 13, 2012 6:00 AM CST
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I was just guessing at numbers and figures
Pulling the puzzles apart
Questions of science, science and progress
Do not speak as loud as my heart
- Coldplay
What in the holy hell has been going on this week? Has anyone else noticed it? Stats are flying left and right. Everyone and their mother has got the key to victory for their team in the Saints vs. 49ers Divisional matchup and the freakin' numbers to back it up. More so than any other game. Most of it seems to revolve around the clash between the NFC's best defense and the NFL's number one offense. My hypothesis is that everyone is just so anxious and intrigued, they're desperate to find any advantage their dog might have in this Saturday's fight.
And I'm no different. Hell, I'm a blogger; it's, like, in my DNA. So I pored over all the numbers assuming I would be the one to find the ultimate chink in San Fran's armor that would guarantee victory for the Saints; the Holy Grail of stats that would make even Niners fans throw their hands up in defeat before the game had even taken place.
But there really wasn't much. As it turns out the Saints are a pretty good team, and so are the Niners. Go figure.
Actually, I did find one or two peculiarities that might possibly have a small amount of significance in tomorrow's showdown. I liked the direction MtnExile was heading with his FanPost, examining whether San Francisco's defensive dominance might be inflated because they benefit from playing in a weak NFC West division.
But his conclusions weren't really enough for me. I had to dig deeper. So I busted out the old TI-86 and directly compared the Niners 2011 season stats against division opponents to those of non-division foes in all the major categories: points for/against, total yards for/against, rushing yards for/against, passing yards for/against and turnovers for/against. As I said earlier, I didn't find much. Except...
Well, there seemed to be a fairly big discrepancy, possibly to the advantage of the Saints, between yards allowed by the Niners defense when playing within the division compared to outside of it. Against division opponents the Niners allowed an average of only 251 yards per game this season. Impressive. In non-division games, however, they allowed significantly more yardage, averaging 342.5 yards give up per game. That's a difference of more than 90 yards when playing outside the NFC West. Sounds like I might be on to something. This could be big!
Hardly. The truth of the matter is that the number is skewed. Because for the most part the 49ers played equally good defense against their non-division opponents as well, save for a few bad games when they gave up more yards than usual to the Eagles (513), Cowboys (472) and perhaps the Giants (395), which inflates that number.
But that's just it. San Francisco's defense isn't perfect. They're capable of getting beat and giving up yardage. They're fairly consistent but have shown weakness. None of the opponents listed above have anywhere near as dynamic an offense as New Orleans, so if the Eagles and Cowboys can put up that kind of yardage against San Francisco, then you better believe The Record Breakers are capable of even more damage. Because save the debacle in St. Louis, the Saints have been consistently dominant on offense. Week in and week out. Even outdoors the Saints were still able to put up 503 yards in Jacksonville, 453 in Tampa Bay and 437 in Tennessee.
Bam! Suck on that Niners fans! You can start thinking about the draft because this game is all but over! No arguing with those numbers.
Then again, the Saints have been known to completely meltdown against unlikely and inferior opponents. For example, they're embarrassing loss to the win-less Rams earlier this year and that season-ending dumpster fire they put together against the Seahawks in the playoffs, among a handful of other epic fusterclucks.
But wait, the Saints defense is fifth best in the league at stopping 3rd down and San Francisco's offense is second worst in 3rd down conversion percentage. Jackpot! I hope Harbaugh is emphasizing special teams this week because this baby is gonna be a punt & field goal fest for the 49ers, which just isn't going to get it done against this high-flying Saints offense.
And round and round we go. So basically what you need to know about this game...is that anything can happen. Damn if it isn't cliche but sometimes numbers and stats don't mean a thing. They're certainly fun to break down and examine but in the end it really comes down to which team wants it more on that day. And therein lies the most important stat of all: desire. And that just can't be measured. So let's all just sit back and enjoy the show. May the best team win.
P.S. - The Niners have only turned the ball over once in division games this season but have done so nine times against non-division opponents. FTW! #wegotthis
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I'm so ready for this game.
You’re right. Everyone’s throwing out stat after stat to back up their guess on who will win and it’s become tiresome. The bottom line is that these are two great teams that usually get their wins in much different ways. Maybe I’m not finding all of the articles on this game, but it seems everywhere I look there’s a sportswriter writing about how the 49ers can win this game and how the Saints won’t be as good as they usually are. Enough already! I’m all prognosticated out. Kickoff can’t get here soon enough for me.
"As soon as Tony (Dungy) said we had no chance, I knew we had 'em right where we wanted 'em"--Coach Sean Payton right after Super Bowl XLIV with the Lombardi Trophy firmly in hand. WHO DAT!!
by David "Satch" Kelly on Jan 13, 2012 8:09 AM CST reply actions
I realize that we are a passionate fan base, but can we please get past the 49er fans thinking they have the market cornered on intelligent analysis of statistics. That seems to be the common sentiment among thier fans: they are educated and we’re passionate. Excuse me, but we do actually have some statistics that point in our favor, just like the 49ers have some that point in theirs. I personally still think that we win 35-10 (I don’t feel like being nice and saying they’ll score 21 any more – honestly, their offense doesn’t scare me). I actually wrote that on another post today before I saw Dave’s prediction, but I have to give Dave credit for putting that in the Q&A on their blog. I like that you’re standing by your convictions, Dave.
by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 13, 2012 8:56 AM CST reply actions
it’s fun to go back and forth with stats this and that, but that’s all it is; a goofy distraction.
all the stats in the world aren’t going to suit up and play the game saturday.
-josh
with that said, there’s no way the Niners are going to beat the Saints. 44 field goals to 32 touchdowns? you’re not going to beat the Saints trading 3 for 7
Honestly at this point we know how both teams like to win games
and the styles contrast. Whichever team gets to play with their style will win most likely.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
I just hope the Saints don't get over
confident due to their 1st game this year
Doh!
"Move over Marino, there's a new Brees coming through town!"-Jim Henderson
by BRSaintsFan on Jan 13, 2012 11:18 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Great right up Dave.
But I think the Saints are a great team and the 49’ers are a pretty good team. I think the 49’ers will be trying too hard to show everyone in the WORLD how great of a defense they reall have. They will have to be on their toes each and every defensive play and they just won’t be able to do that. They will mess up and then continue messing up and that for sure you can’t do against Brees and this offense. There were times in all of their games this year that they could lax against the offense, but this isn’t at all the same kind of offense they have faced all year. The Saints are used to playing very good defenses, but the 49’ers are not used to playing an offense as great as the Saints.
And right = Write?
"So I'll leave you with this. And I say this with all sincerity, right from the bottom of my heart, and with all due respect: Lick my balls." Grandmaster Wang
HAHAHAHA!!
I was gonna say something but let it go. I just thought it was funny that he chose to correct “really” but completely missed the “right.” Ha!
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by Dave Cariello on Jan 13, 2012 1:09 PM CST up reply actions
but Dave might actally be "right up" (aka right on) with the write-up
I won’t even mention my drug store…Rite-Aid.
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 13, 2012 11:49 PM CST up reply actions
Throw the stats away?
But I have made several spreadsheets!
Which people claim that their team can defeat our professional football squad?
Roll 'em up and hang 'em in the bathroom.
Every day I'm shufflin'!
by Just 'Nother Day on Jan 13, 2012 6:13 PM CST up reply actions
I don't see the 49ers as one of those unlikely or inferior opponents a la the Seahawks or Rams.
I think the Saints players are well aware that this is not some mediocre team that got a home field playoff game merely by the structure of the seeding that gives preference to division winners over actual records. The Saints and 49ers have the same regular season record of 13-3, and I am fairly confident that they have a healthy dose of respect for what the 49ers have done. Perhaps the most important thing for the Saints is that they have far more playoff experience than the 49ers. Many of the Saints have reached the pinnacle and then experienced a debacle. I’ll take that over any supposed chip on the shoulder because some dudes in Vegas set the line against them.
My big thing
is that the Niners will still go home happy, even with a loss. “Great season, fellas. Let’s build on this!” The Saints on the other hand will see a loss as a waste of a tremendous regular season. and a missed opportunity. I don’t think this will play any huge factor, or that the Niners will give up at any point and just throw in the towel, but I think it will help keep the Saints sharp and focused. In the immortal words of Cobra Commander, “Failure is not an option!”
i think the playoff experience factor will help you guys
Bur I don’t believe that they’ll just be happy that they got that far. I read an article about how this is what they expected for a while with the talent level on the team but didn’t achieve due to coaching. But love the cobra commander reference.
by Andrew9erfan on Jan 13, 2012 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm not sure if I'm sold on Alex Smith yet...
but it seems pretty clear Singletary was holding him and the rest of the team back.
by sammasaaron on Jan 13, 2012 11:00 AM CST up reply actions
Love this, Dave.
Couldn’t agree more with the conclusion and enjoyed the levity and clear headedness.
"I am a Saints player. Look, sir" Patrick Robinson
by CrazyforColston on Jan 13, 2012 9:47 AM CST reply actions
fustercluck!
I really like that. Of course I’m easily amused.
"Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds" -Bob Marley
by PanheadCatahoula on Jan 13, 2012 10:02 AM CST reply actions
you've been flagged
The 2011 Saints: From Lockout to Knockout
by MobileSaint on Jan 13, 2012 10:14 AM CST up reply actions
Sports blogs have turned into the Mathlympics.
I blame fantasy foodball.
My numbers will crush your numbers! Your numbers can’t carry my numbers’ pocket protector!
Oh well, something to do until the actual game. My favorite number: 28.5 hours till this mutha goes down!!
a couple of thoughts
1) I think the is record breaking Saints name realizes many of them have been here for a while and many may not be here next year so it’s gotta get down now
2) Alex Smith vs Drew Brees? Cmon man, at least in Seattle it was Hassleback – a fine, fine QB who could have been in the Hof F if he had been fortunate to be on some great dynansty team (maybe) he’s a fine QB for a long time is my point.
3) We are the best or close to the best road team over the past 3 – 5 tears
4) Think about what QBs the 49ers defense faced in their own division (bad) vs out of division (Manning, Vick, Romo) and these non division teams put up a lot of yards. That’s the difference between NFC West and other NFC Divisions- the QB.
5) Tell me what QB SF faced this year that gets rid of the football as fast as Drew? Eli, that’s it. No Paytons, no Bradys,no Rodgers, no Hasslebecks, no Carson Palmers. A lot of Daltons,Skeltons, Becks, Grossmans, T Jackson, etc. Rothlesberger was on 1 leg and still put up 330yds. Jerico Cotchery had 93 yds. He sucks.
This will be the best QB and the quickest release they will face this season.
6) They are not very deep. Almost any injury anywhere will be significant. I like our depth. Almost everywhere.
7) They usually get a boost and a field position advantage re: special teams kicking . I don’t see that being the case
tomorrow with Moorstead’s kickoffs and punts.
8) I feel that our coaching staff will have a superb game plan and that SF will be at a disadvantage there. This is because we have so many freakin’ weapons on offense and we are not afraid to gamble on defense. No coaching duo has as large of cujones than Payton and Williams.
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
this record breaking Saints team
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
Stats
RE: “Against division opponents the Niners allowed an average of only 251 yards per game this season. Impressive. In non-division games, however, they allowed significantly more yardage, averaging 342.5 yards give up per game. That’s a difference of more than 90 yards when playing outside the NFC West. Sounds like I might be on to something. This could be big!”
Dave, Your stat is the one that is most prolific to me…divisional foes almost always play each other tough. Case and point – The Super Bowl winning TB Bucs in 2002 went 12-4 throughout the regular season…two of their losses came at the hands of the 3rd place 9-7 Saints.
A true indication of a teams performance comes from outside of their division.
Cultural Difference
Niners fans – Look ma, I got a degree in Math & Statistics. x+y^n-z*49 > a/b^m8n-c, which means the Niners should win.
Saints fans – Look ma, we got Drew effin Brees, Nuff Said!!
by slumD on Jan 13, 2012 1:10 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Love you, xen.
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by Dave Cariello on Jan 13, 2012 3:17 PM CST up reply actions
The only stats that matter
If you spell out each team’s name, the 49ers take the early lead 24 letters to 16 letters for NO. Then if you eliminate all duplicate letters, NO regains the lead 6 to 3 (4 if you count the dash). But since we are in the USA (no metrics here!) we drop the hyphen, so NO still leads 6-3. If you rearrange the leftover letters NO’s becomes (Rowl it) (like “That’s how we roll!”) while the 9ers becomes (tye). Now in the NFL we all know we don’t play for no tie so the alphabet has spoken and predicted a NO’s win. Also to correct the new cheer for the 9ers, see the summation below:
Who’s got it better than us? N.O.B.O.D.Y . Which when properly translated becomes…. wait for it…. wait for it….
New Orleans. Built On Destroying You.
SP: "No, No, No. I said 'Let's all take it to the Vikes again' not' Let's all take 2 Vicoden!'"
by Comp on Jan 13, 2012 1:23 PM CST reply actions 10 recs
totally
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 13, 2012 8:57 PM CST up reply actions
AT LAST!!!
A voice of clarity in this mayhem!
Every day I'm shufflin'!
by Just 'Nother Day on Jan 13, 2012 6:17 PM CST up reply actions
Forget the stats...
Last time Alabama won the National Championship, the Saints won the Super Bowl. That’s enough for me to believe the Saints go all the way! Roll Tide and Who Dat!!!
That’s going to piss off quite a few LSU fans… but since I couldn’t care less about college football if you paid me to try, I guess I am OK with this.
As a Tulane graduate, that doesn’t bother me. Try running more than three different plays all night next time, guys. Is this what I get the one time I decide to pull for you guys in a game? Yeesh.
Sooner here
who’s had to deal with years of nonstop crap from all my family back in LA after LSU beat OU. Now I have a simple comeback: Nick Saban.
YES!!
I was thinking that too as I watched the Tide roll Monday night. Sorry, LSU fans.
"As soon as Tony (Dungy) said we had no chance, I knew we had 'em right where we wanted 'em"--Coach Sean Payton right after Super Bowl XLIV with the Lombardi Trophy firmly in hand. WHO DAT!!
by David "Satch" Kelly on Jan 13, 2012 3:56 PM CST up reply actions
Most important statistic
The most important number to remember is that 83.6% of all statistics are just made up and can be ignored.
stretch
Just heard the talking heads (this one wore lipstick) saying there’s only two QBs in the league that you can take their number of losses and number of INTs and still have a single digit. One being Rodgers (duh) and the other being… wait for it… Alex Smith – just 3 losses and 5 picks in the regular season.
That just seams like some random stat pulled out of someones hiney-ho to try and make this Smith cat special.
Is it saturday yet?
\\//\\// ||-|| (()) ||)) //-\\ =||=
You wiped the floor with victory, then puked until you fell asleep - Flogging Molly
by cockynessIsWHODAT on Jan 13, 2012 6:25 PM CST via mobile reply actions
(this one wore lipstick)
I’m thinking Skip Bayless.
Every day I'm shufflin'!
by Just 'Nother Day on Jan 13, 2012 6:59 PM CST up reply actions
ding ding ding!!
\//\// ||-|| (()) ||)) //-\ =||=
You wiped the floor with victory, then puked until you fell asleep - Flogging Molly
by cockynessIsWHODAT on Jan 13, 2012 7:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
It was actually one of the female note-reading, teleprompter-reliant robot eye-candies over on NFLNetwork
\//\// ||-|| (()) ||)) //-\ =||=
You wiped the floor with victory, then puked until you fell asleep - Flogging Molly
by cockynessIsWHODAT on Jan 13, 2012 7:26 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
who let her out of the kitchen?
--- I don't miss the alcohol as much as I miss having the built in reason on why I'm nekkid in public.
--- I used to want to be an inspiration to my son. now i just hope to be a dire warning.
--- just two men and a dog making candles
--- I know i'll win my battles though i fear we'll lose the war
--- if you find yourself in a fair fight you failed in planning.
I can almost hear Phil Collins crooning the title of this post
Throwing the stats away!
Throwing the stats away!
ooooooh hoo hoo hoo
Is there nothing that I can say
To make you change your mind
I watch the world go round and round
And see mine turning upside down
You’re throwing the stats away!
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
I love it, Coach!
"Move over Marino, there's a new Brees coming through town!"-Jim Henderson
by BRSaintsFan on Jan 14, 2012 3:35 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
But wait,
Wouldn’t that be Chubby Checker to “Twistin’ the Night Away”?
"Move over Marino, there's a new Brees coming through town!"-Jim Henderson
by BRSaintsFan on Jan 14, 2012 3:37 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
throwin', throwin', throwin' the stats away-hay!
throwin’, throwin’, everybody’s doing great-hey!
That works too!!
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 7:17 AM CST up reply actions
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