Saints @ 49ers: HansDat's Divisional Playoff Hot Reads
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 6:02 AM CST
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PrintWelcome to Divisional Saturday. This afternoon, the Mighty, Mighty New Orleans Saints take on the Mighty, Mighty San Francisco 49ers in the first game of the second weekend of the NFL playoffs.
It has been one pressure-ccoker of a week leading up to today, and I'm quite ready for this game to get started.
As usual, I brighten your gameday morning with another tasty edition of HansDat's Hot Reads (trust me, it's better than a 4x4 with a fried egg and bacon on it, but not quite as good as a Luther Burger).
Come on across the jump and we'll get right to it!
Wait, waitaminute, wait wait...before we jump, here's the rest of your CSC Divisional Saturday run-up to the game coverage (all times EST):
11:00 am - Preston's Preview
2:00 pm - Gameday Fleur-De-Links (with pump you up music and videos!!! Here we come to get you...)
3:30 pm - Saints/Niners Game Open Thread
** And, let's use this comment area as our pre-pre-pre-game open thread for discussion of our current vibe, Saints gear and food plans, and how we're going to hold our s*** together until kickoff - GAAAAAAA!!!! **
PRIMARY OPTION
This week, with the ferocious 49er defense chomping at the bit to get to him and shut down the Saints record-breaking aerial attack, it is paramount that they PROTECT DREW BREES.
This will be a tough task, as the Niners have a couple of hard-hitting linebackers (NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis) who can disrupt routes, tackle, and cover backs and receivers. They didn't allow a rushing touchdown this season until Christmas Eve, and led the league in rushing defense this year (yielding 77.2 yards per game). And I haven't even mentioned their sack leaders: the electrifying rookie Aldon Smith (14), uber-strong Justin Smith (7.5), and awe-inspiring OLB Ahmad Brooks (7).
What I'd Like To See: Protection schemes that are executed well and work against this powerful defense, giving up a couple of sacks at most. Brees will need to help this out by getting rid of the ball quickly, moving effectively in the pocket, and making smart decisions under pressure, as he won't have as much time as he usually does to survey the field.
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CHECKDOWN # 1
The next most important factor in this game will be BALL SECURITY. The Saints carried a -3 turnover ratio in their three losses, and a +6 in their 14 wins. They cannot afford to lose possessions and give the 49ers a short field to work with to get points. And then when you stack that -3 overall ratio up next to the 49ers +28 ratio, your bowels clinch.
What I'd Like To See: A bowel-unclinching turnover-free game is what I'd most like to see, and if that can't happen, at least keeping the ratio to -1 or better will be required FTW.
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CHECKDOWN # 2
During the game, things might get hairy, and they might get scary, but no matter what happens, the Saints must RUN WITH ABANDON, AND DON'T ABANDON THE RUN.
Against this 49er defense it may be rough going (hell, look back a few paragraphs - they only give up 77 yards per game on the ground, for cripes' sake!), but the Saints have to stay two-dimensional to keep them off-balance and to open up the passing game a bit for Brees and Krewe. Plus, the Saints are 13-0 when they rush for over 100 yards (1-3 when held under 100).
What I'd Like To See: Just enough attempts and yards to keep the 49er defense honest and from being able to key on the pass too much - 25 carries for 100 yards would be a good start (although I'd take less carries if they were gaining 5+ yards per attempt), just as long as they eclipse that century mark on the ground.
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SAFETY VALVE
The Niners have two decent offensive weapons, RB Frank Gore (1211 yards, 8 TD) and TE Vernon Davis (792 yards, 6 TD). It'll be really tough to win if they both have big days, so let's have them just HOLSTER ONE OF THESE WEAPONS.
What I'd Like To See: Keep Gore under 75 yards and out of the end zone, OR deny Davis a score and don't let him get more than 50 receiving yards.
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BONUS HOT READ
Make them TAKE THE LONG WAY HOME. With a 49er offense that struggles to gain yards at times working against a Saints defense that gives up lots of yards, doesn't easily get takeaways, and sometimes gets a crucial third down stop, field position could make or break this game.
The 49ers must be consistently given a long road to the end zone to allow more opportunities to get a third down stop or takeaway.
What I'd Like To See: Kickoffs for touchbacks or short returns only, and deep, booming punts that are mostly unreturnable, as the 49ers average starting field position is their 25-yard line. It would also help to not have any giveaways that gift them with a short field.
* * *
That's it folks. In my humble HansDat opinion, those are the five things the Saints must do to win and move on to the NFC Championship game for the third time in six seasons. It's quite a tall order to beat the 49ers in their house, so what do YOU think it'll take?
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In Afghanistan
It’s 430 in the afternoon and we’re gearing up for a 2am start to this Saints vs 49ers game which we’ll watch in the mess hall.
Saints 31 Niners 17
thanks for your service there and hopefully you'll be home soon.
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
Bless you boys
…and that is to the real heroes oversees, not the ones on the west coast.
Enjoy the game rooting for our America’s team.
Duh!
by devilducky on Jan 14, 2012 6:46 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Where are you at in Afghanistan
I was at Bagram spent time in Salerno and Chapman
Good luck stay safe
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 14, 2012 6:58 AM CST up reply actions
Was in Bagram in 09 over on the AMC Compound
Now on a base outside Kabul
I was there in 03-04
Be careful come home safe
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 14, 2012 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
Good Hot Reads , Hans
I would also add that the 49ers don’t protect Alex Smith that well, having given up almost twice as many sacks as we have. Smith doesn’t throw many ints, so that tells me he holds onto the ball for long amounts of time. But, they don’t throw deep much. So, we need to be disruptive, getting QB pressure, sacks, and knocking passes down at the LOS. This is a team we may be able to this against.
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
Good point....
Brees was sacked 24 times in 657 attempts, or once every 27.4 attempts.
Smith was sacked 44 times in 445 attempts, or once every 10.1 attempts.
I have to agree with Philinwood, Smith must definitely hold the ball too long, which would explain why he doesn’t throw many INTS. It artificially inflates their turnover ratio, and would also explain the 29% 3rd down conversion rate, if they’re constantly in 3rd and long.
The right side of their line sucks in pass pro.
Especially Anthony Davis, at RT. He’s a guard playing RT, so Cam Jordan could have a big game (a la Panthers game)
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
Never been so ready for the game to start
I think every one is making too much out of sticking with the run. I think they will shut it down either way and make us one dimensional. Luckily our other dimension is the best in NFL history. Pass, pass, pass and we will jump to an early lead. They aren’t built to play catch up. Of course this will require our pass blocking to continue to be superb.
Furthermore, the niners are one dimensional to begin with, so if we stuff gore then they become no dimensional.
Bonus read: don’t kick to Ted ginn. I know he isn’t an elite returner, but he is their only other chance at getting a quick score. Why chance it?
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 14, 2012 6:55 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Well, if we decide not to punt the whole game again, we won't have to worry about it.
Since Legatron is a touchback machine on kickoffs.
by Jimbo03 on Jan 14, 2012 7:46 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Let's do this.
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
good call.
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 14, 2012 7:52 AM CST up reply actions
Hope so
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 14, 2012 1:37 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I agree with you about Ginn and our passing game.
But, I think if we have balance between running and passing, we’ll be fine. Our running game is superb and even if we don’t get 6 or 8 yards almost every time we run, if we can have a decent rushing game it will only help our pasing game. So, I think we should do what we have been doing which is keep with the balance.
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
Ginn?
I forgot about that guy.
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 7:10 AM CST up reply actions
oh YEAH!!
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 10:25 AM CST up reply actions
Sr., maybe, but not Jr.
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 10:30 AM CST up reply actions
Lots of confident smack talk over at ninersnation.com
Even though we’re favored in Vegas, almost every talking head and columnist I read are picking the Niners. I like it that way.
this game will look like the Rams game at first
And they need to keep their heads on straight and be patient -
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
I bet Alex Smith is having diarrhea right about now...
First big game…knowing he is going to get exposed on national television…out of a job next season…
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 14, 2012 7:28 AM CST reply actions
What is everybody cooking for game day?
The Superstarlet is about to start a pot of red beans. Using a hambone for this batch.
In Breesus' name we play
by Breesus Christ Superstar on Jan 14, 2012 7:32 AM CST reply actions
I did Popeye's last week, so I feel like I shouldn't f*** with the sreak...
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 8:50 AM CST up reply actions
will be restocking beer supply - ran out in 3rd Q last week - D'OH!!!!
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 8:51 AM CST up reply actions
Rum
Fee-fi-fo-fum,
I smell the blood of an Englishman,
Be he alive, or be he dead
I'll grind his bones to make my bread
the 3-4 front presents a problem for the run game..
all the stretch plays gaps get filled.. and the yards inside a tougher..
i expect surprise run attempts with draws.. pitch-outs.. & the occasional power run..
y really think we come out with a short passing approach.. attacking the edges of the defense.. waiting for a shot play down the pipe with jimmy or colston.. moving the pocket to get a deep throw.. the deep outside may be there more than once.. i expect we take the game to them, just like always and see if they can defend it..
49'rs Defense overrated!
Everyone keeps talking about the 49’rs D but who exactly have they played? They have at most 3-4 wins against teams with winning records while playing in the weakest division in the NFC. I believe that the Saints are going to open up in San Fran and make the pundits cry uncle!
Lcash
by Lcash on Jan 14, 2012 8:03 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
but they played so many tough teams, how can they be overrated?
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
somebody has to win that division
You think you know, and you don't know, and you never, ever, will.-Jim Mora Sr.
I understand ....nothing.-Michael Scott
The Future is Unwritten.-Joe Strummer
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."-Mahatma Gandhi
Got called in for work today...
Start half hour before the game. FML. No lucky P-Rob jersey for the game. Still gonna get updates as I can. LEGGGGOOOO!
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
SMH and PTW (punching the wall) for you, NF
can you wear the jersey under your work clothes – like Superman and Spider Man?
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 8:53 AM CST up reply actions
I'll see what I can do.
I get pretty messy at work, and I’d rather not get it dirty!
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
I worry about
Vernon Davis vs Harper and dump off passes to Gore and Hunter. Oddly enough, I’m not as concerned about the 9ers rushing game. Perhaps I’m delusional but I think we’ll handle that ok.
"But tonight the Superbowl belongs to the City of New Orleans" - Roger Goodell 2/7/2010
yes yes and yes
they will use those to get 1st downs and stay on the field…and lots of punts early in this game – Saints need to be patient early and keep cool
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 9:02 AM CST up reply actions
Vernon Davis vsHarperVilma
Especially with whatever ailment Harper had this week, I expect to see Vilma having VD most of today
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
You expect Vilma to have a venereal disease?? Is there something you know about him we dont??? J/K need something to lighten the mood before GAME DAY!!!!! GGGAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
well, if they would just follow my hot reads and get VAccinated...no problem!
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 10:24 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not sure which matchup is more frightening...
"But tonight the Superbowl belongs to the City of New Orleans" - Roger Goodell 2/7/2010
GW will blitz early
and try to take those positions away, or lessen their impact, by making those guys pick up blitzers.
From what I can gather from reading Niner Nation
The San Fransisco strategy is based largely on VD and crabs. Disturbing to say the least, maybe the Saints shouldn’t touch anything in the locker room.
"Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds" -Bob Marley
by PanheadCatahoula on Jan 14, 2012 9:55 AM CST reply actions
why do they have my
ex wives on their team now?
--- I don't miss the alcohol as much as I miss having the built in reason on why I'm nekkid in public.
--- I used to want to be an inspiration to my son. now i just hope to be a dire warning.
--- just two men and a dog making candles
--- I know i'll win my battles though i fear we'll lose the war
--- if you find yourself in a fair fight you failed in planning.
In the Gulf of Mexico
but I think we will slow things down around game time.
Bear
My beer of choice for the day:
Kirin Ichiban. Nice Japanese beer. 100% malt, but doesn’t really taste like it.
"I want to hand this trophy to the MVP of the Super Bowl -- and the MVP of the entire league.''
-- Saints coach Sean Payton, handing the Vince Lombardi Trophy to Drew Brees after Super Bowl 44.
methinks you've enjoyed that on gamedays past, too
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 10:24 AM CST up reply actions
Gotta do everything the same as last week. So Port o’ Call breakfast coming up for me, followed by a ton of Hobgoblin and Black Sheep Ale in front of my couch with my Greer jersey on.
trapped in grammar and calendars.
FINISH STRONG!!!!
big plays all day – BEAT EVERYBODY
send ’em all home – BEAT EVERYBODY
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 10:31 AM CST up reply actions
BIG HITS DON'T QUIT - BEAT EVERYBODY
TAKE THIS SHOW ON THE ROAD – BEAT EVERYBODY
I DO MY OWN SELF – HOO!
I DO MY OWN SELF – HOO!
ON 3 WIN….1, 2, 3, WIN!!!!!
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 14, 2012 10:39 AM CST up reply actions
Ive gotta remember my "game chips" this week....
Every week, I get a new bag of those $2 Santita tortilla chips. I can only open it at game time. i also wear my same black Brees SBXLIV jersey with my 2009 Super Bowl Champions t-shirt underneath, and the same jeans.
Last week, I’m sitting there, we’re in the middle of the second quarter trailing 14-7, and my wife screams at me, “where’s your game chips?” I had them, but had forgotten to bring them upstairs. I ran down and got them and, well……you know the rest. 45-28.
Sorry I made everyone sweat it out last week. I promise it won’t happen again.
Good Morning!!!!
Got a few chores to do this morning, then it’s GAME TIME! GEAUX SAINTS!!!!
Hmmm...
I probably shouldn’t come on this. ;-)
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by Dave Cariello on Aug 24, 2011 10:31 AM PDT
forgot to mention
the 49ers have a couple of pro bowlers in the defensive secondary – Carlos Rogers and Dashon Goldson – they won’t make it easy for Breesy to complete his passes…
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
I'm pretty nervous about this game.
The Saints have been playing at such a high level. I can’t see that stopping now, but I do fear a crash and burn. Every time I convince myself that we got this, I see the Seattle game in my head. I have no doubt that we can easily beat the 49’ers, but everyone has to show up and do their job. I haven’t decided on food yet. My stomach is too churned up for anything to sound good right now.
"It's better to burn out than fade away."
Everyone focuses on that 77.2 yards per game rushing that the 49ers give up,
but that’s VERY misleading…..
There good, but not GREAT. They give up the same yards per carry as the Ravens (3.5), and only slightly better than the Dolphins (3.7), Jaguars and Seahawks (3.8).
The reason they only give up 77.2 yards, while the Ravens give up 92.6 yards, is rushing ATTEMPTS. The 49ers have the fewest rushing attempts against (353) of any team in the NFL…… except the Saints(351). In comparison, the Raven had 419 attempts against.
We know the Saints have fewer because teams are trying to play catch up and are abandoning the run. Is that the same reason teams stop running against the Niners? I doubt it. An extra 5 carries a game (27) against the Niners will have a team approaching the 100 yard mark. And I hardly think we’ll need to worry about playing catchup to the point where we have to abandon the run.
Got a buddy in Ireland, they're not broadcasting the game there...
…anyone got a link to a ’net feed for it? Please e-mail it to me: Base6@aol.com
Irony: an atheist Saints fan
Drew's book
made me (really) realize that the game is not only effected by the stats but also about preparation, effort, experience, heart, strategy, who has their head right during those few hours and who is the better team that day.
You can be the best team on paper but if you don’t have all those things in the mix in a game like this when only the best come to play you probably aren’t going to win.
ok
so we have a coach who looks like malcolm in the middle, we have two offensive weapons that look like me and my giant (see me and my little buddy fan shot), we occasionally wear black pants that look like leotards, we have the tim tebow of defenses and our qb’s face looks like he got something in a third world country. so what, WE GOT THIS….GEAUX SAINTS
--- I don't miss the alcohol as much as I miss having the built in reason on why I'm nekkid in public.
--- I used to want to be an inspiration to my son. now i just hope to be a dire warning.
--- just two men and a dog making candles
--- I know i'll win my battles though i fear we'll lose the war
--- if you find yourself in a fair fight you failed in planning.
I wouldn’t mind seeing these guys really busy on Saturday with punting and FGs, as the Saints keep the 49ers out of the end zone.
Three forced FGs, eight forced punts. Not a bad day at the office on defense.
Oh, wait.
"I don’t intend to draw any conclusions from any single game." -Brian Burke
"I will now attempt to exclude specific large amounts of TOP from the totals of winning teams, in order to prove that TOP doesn't contribute to winning." -Dr. Jeremy Arkes
and it was a not so bad day...until - but the game lasts 60 minutes - and it would have been nice to see GW not blitz at the end, however that is NOT who he is
and thanks for reading the caption!!
until…60 effing passes
until…abandoning the run and even giving up on the short, successful passes for a while when it was a 6-and 3-point game in the 3rd Q
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 15, 2012 6:49 AM CST up reply actions
there's penty of incorrectness to go around in my hot reads
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 15, 2012 6:50 AM CST up reply actions
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