Being An Advanced Statistical Analysis of the San Francisco 49ers' Defense
by MtnExile on Jan 9, 2012 2:39 PM CST
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Okay, so I'm not a statistician. In fact, if you put a gun to my head and told me to be a statistician or else, I'd choose the bullet. But my hobby is misinterpreting incomplete statistics, especially relating to sports, and I just wanted to share my latest project with you.
It's this: how good, really, is the San Francisco 49ers' defense? I mean, come on: where's Ronnie Lott? Where's Charles Haley? Where's Matt Millen? (Over there, in a box.) These aren't the 49ers we all loved to be scared spitless by during that whole Dynasty thing. So how good are these guys, anyway?
Short answer: pretty darn good. Ranked 1st against the run in the entire NFL. Ranked--whoa, wait a minute, 16th against the pass? Worse than Indianapolis? Really? (Okay, just checking.) Well, that's still good enough to rank them 4th in total defense, in the whole goldurned league. So that's impressive.
But I can't help myself--I've got to try to pick this thing apart somehow. And the manner that I choose to do it in is this: how good were the 49ers' divisional opponents? Those division games, after all, count for over a third of the total stats; and everyone knows the 49ers played in the weakest division of all (in fact, the NFL is thinking of demoting them next year and replacing them with the SEC).
For instance, how did the NFC West stack up running the ball? Because maybe the 49ers' top ranking in rush defense had something to do with the weakness of the competition. And sure enough: the NFC West came in dead last. (The NFC South, by contrast, trailed only the AFC West, making the Saints' rush defense look not-so-bad after all.) So that #1 ranking doesn't look so hot in view of the fact that San Francisco's major competition was, so to speak, lame. (And yeah, I realize that being in the same division as the 49ers undoubtedly had something to do with those low rankings...but playing 2 games against a great defense doesn't skew stats like playing 6 games against dud offenses does.)
So, how about that passing rank? Pretty middle of the road, so the competition within the division must have been fierce. And, indeed, when we look into the rank of the division as a whole, we find that in passing the NFC West ranked...last. Whoa. You mean that against the worst passing teams in the league, the best the 49ers could rank was 16th? Well, surely that's because nobody could run on them, so everyone had to pass. I mean, surely. And if the Saints also can't run on them, we still won't be able to pass the ball any better than the 16th-ranked team, which was...Tampa Bay. I mean, surely.
So we'll let that one, um, pass. So how were they in the most telling category: points allowed?
A very impressive 2nd in the league, behind only the Steelers. And where did the NFC West stand in points scored?
Whoa. Last. Again. Actually, I'm making that up--I haven't even checked yet. So hang on while I do the numbers...oops. Dang. I'm afraid this is where my whole thesis falls to the ground, because the NFC West is only second-to-last. Behind that powerhouse, the AFC South, home to the Colts and Jaguars.
So, all joking aside: the fact is, the 49ers spent the entire year fattening themselves against bad teams. Now that the 2011 season is over, we can know that with certainty, because the 49ers' strength of schedule was tied for 30th in the entire league. In fact, the only team that played a cushier schedule was...whoa. The New Orleans Saints.
In the words of Jared Allen: don't go there.
So, I guess we'll just to play the game after all. The stat-padding offense of the Saints against the bottom-feeding defense of the 49ers. Should be an instant classic.
This FanPost was written by a reader and member of Canal Street Chronicles. It does not necessarily reflect the views of CSC and its staff or editors.
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Yeah, this game seems to be a classic strength on strength matchup
Our unstoppable offense against your impenetrable defense!
One thing to note, though, is that though you besmirch the NFC West, here’s something for you to chew on:
49ers vs NFC West: 14.83 pts allowed, 297.6 yds allowed.
49ers overall: 14.3 pts allowed, 310.2 yds allowed.
We actually give up slightly MORE points and very slightly fewer yards to the NFC West than to other divisions. We don’t ‘fatten ourselves up’ against the NFC West, that’s for sure.
I'm just a simple Giants fan trying to make my way in the universe.
by Tim Lincecum's Bong on Jan 9, 2012 7:28 PM CST reply actions
NFC West
Those division games, after all, count for over a third of the total stats; and everyone knows the 49ers played in the weakest division of all (in fact, the NFL is thinking of demoting them next year and replacing them with the SEC).
Weakest division based on what exactly?
OK
So is it overall record? Because we’re 6th overall in that. Is it playoff success? We’re the only division with someone in round 2 every year since 2002. Give me a good reason other than “I heard it on TV so it must be true”.
I'm just a simple Giants fan trying to make my way in the universe.
by Tim Lincecum's Bong on Jan 10, 2012 12:12 AM CST up reply actions
Sorry
We’re tied for 5th with the AFC West, not 6th.
I'm just a simple Giants fan trying to make my way in the universe.
by Tim Lincecum's Bong on Jan 10, 2012 12:17 AM CST up reply actions
Are you denying that THE OTHER THREE TEAMS in your division are garbage?
No the 9ers… the other three teams.
They are garbage.
(Yes, we lost to one of them this year… that was a long time ago… new players, and judging by the results, it was a wakeup call that we learned a lot from.)
Yes. I am.
The Seahawks closed the year 5-3. The three losses were by a combined 11 points and two were to division rivals. The Cardinals closed the year 7-2. Both teams have really good defenses, and both were alive until the last round of the playoffs. They are GOOD TEAMS. The Rams kind of suck, but so do the Tampa Bay Bucs.
I'm just a simple Giants fan trying to make my way in the universe.
by Tim Lincecum's Bong on Jan 10, 2012 12:33 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Rams sucked just enough.
To cost Saints that #2 seed they will be regretting so much about come Saturday. :)
A team starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB is hard to consider a legitmate threat.
by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 7:18 AM CST up reply actions
Then you should try harder at that considering thing.
They are a good team.
Wow, I’m actually going to partially agree with a 49er fan on something.
They are a DECENT team with significant potential to get better. And while T-Jax is no superstar, he’s not the problem on that team. Not the primary one at the moment at least. His injury propensity might be a problem tho. But if he and Lynch can stay healthy, they will improve at least two games next year I think.
The Rams are definitely garbage.
Arizona and Seattle, one of them, would probably have been in the playoffs over Atlanta if they had figured out the season started a few weeks earlier.
It’s not as bad as it was in the past few years. Not even close.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
not necessarily overall record… quality of play.
but how are you calculating that… Total W- total L for the entire division?
Yes
Are wins and losses not indicative of play any more? The NFC West is a combined 2 games under .500. That’s tied for 5th, and just 4 games back of your own division. The ‘NFC West is the weakest division’ narrative is simply wrong.
I'm just a simple Giants fan trying to make my way in the universe.
by Tim Lincecum's Bong on Jan 10, 2012 12:35 AM CST up reply actions
“Are wins and losses not indicative of play any more?”
If it’s all you have to go on… then you’ve gotta use that.
If you know who the wins and losses came against… that’s a little better.
But, there’s so much more to it than just a win or a loss.
Is a win against the Colts at home the same as a win against playoff caliber division rival in their stadium?
You won both…. but one indicates that you can take it on the road and beat a supposedly good team, the other means you showed up and played hard for 2 quarters to get a 24 point lead and then coasted.
Actually your Wrong ...
… But, there’s so much more to it than just a win or a loss…
… at the end of the day , that’s all that matters ( Wins * Losses ) …!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
You sound like I/we/he are insulting your team. I am not.
He was not talking about your team. You have a good team.
The other three teams in your division suck. You have a good team.
I’m not sure how else to say it…
When the narrative appears here, we are NOT talking about the 49ers. Most of us have much respect for your team and what they’ve accomplished.
so… if you take your 13-3 out of the equation…
you can create a single win percentage number out of it…
# of wins / total games played
Where does the rest of your division rank then?
sorry... no need to calculate it...
Division Wins Games Percentage
AFCN…….37……64……0.578
NFCN…….36……64……0.563
AFCE……..33……64……0.516
NFCS…….33……64……0.516
AFCW…….31……64……0.484
NFCE…….30……64……0.469
NFCW…….30……64……0.469
NFCS2……20……48……0.417
AFCS………26……64……0.406
NFCW2……17……48……0.354
NFCS2 is NFCSouth w/o the Saints
NFCW2 is NFCWest w/o the 9ers.
So, using your definition… your opponents comprise the worst division opponents in the league.
by Dan Kelly on Jan 10, 2012 1:10 AM CST up reply actions 6 recs
The things you can do at 2 in the morning!
Rec’d hard lol
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
How do you do a "hard" rec?
Secret button for that? Is it like 5 recs at a time, or something cool like that?
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sometime we say this
BOOM – WRECKED IT
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 11, 2012 9:07 PM CST up reply actions
are you doing this by taking away every division's leader?
in either case, only three wins difference and the Bucs have two more wins over the Rams so it still does not show me much. In fact it shows that our divisions are pretty close.
by taking away the division leaders
NFC W is the second worst division followed by… AFC South. Common denomenator is they both have the worst teams in the NFL. Third worst division is… NFC South. In either case, its a 3 win swing to average and is not significant. Therefore, arguing strength of schedule and weak divisions is not valid in the NFL. As you know, the worst team in the league can beat down on an alleged best team.
You play the team that is given to you.
So that #1 ranking doesn’t look so hot in view of the fact that San Francisco’s major competition was, so to speak, lame.We played against Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Steven Jackson, Marshawn Lynch. We did not allow a single rushing TD or 100 yard rusher until week 16 when Patrick Willis was not playing.
This doesn't make sense
I’m not sure how you can remove a single team from a division and recalculate WP without removing those common games from their divisional opponent’s records.
by CoachOfEarl on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
And not only that, if you are trying to simply remove the top teams from each division to see which division had the best 2-4, you also need to remove the games played by top seeds against ANY division, not just their own.
I'm just a simple Giants fan trying to make my way in the universe.
by Tim Lincecum's Bong on Jan 10, 2012 4:55 PM CST up reply actions
Sorry, but...
Seattle and Arizona do not suck hard. They didn’t have great seasons, but both closed fairly well and beat some quality teams in the NFL. Even without factoring in the Rams beating the Saints, I still think there are worse divisions.
by David Fucillo on Jan 10, 2012 12:14 PM CST up reply actions
incorrect
being 7-9 or even 8-8 is sucking hard. I’m cool with that because it means the Jets, Cowboys, and Eagles suck hard
by mcwagner on Jan 10, 2012 12:16 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Arizona is gonna have one of the better defenses in the NFL next year.
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I love how the Mis-informed , stay Mis-informed and love to be Mis-informed , thanks for playing ...!!
I'm your " Huckelberry "...it's just my game ..( .AleX ) was asked , what do you think about all the game manager talk ... AleX i guess i just managed myself a VIctory ... Extend the Man ...!!
by Edggy on Jan 10, 2012 8:03 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I love how you continue to think your defense can hold off the monster that is the No Punt Intended Offense
On any one play, we can line up with a combination of: Colston, Meachem, Henderson, Moore, Sproles, Thomas, Ivory and Graham. If we have 5 of them on the field, SOMEONE will get open. Add to that our offensive line, which only sent 3 players to the Pro Bowl. Brees will have time to throw, and it will create holes in your defense to run through, and you will lose. Have no doubts about it.
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
how many all-pros do we have on defense?
answer: more than your entire team. If you have 5 of them on the field then you will have 5 men covered when our all-pro Justin Smith and “nearly double your sack leader” Aldon Smith are wrestling Drew Brees to the ground
Oh yes
The associated press picked the smiths to be in their ALL PRO team.
Guess what they look at…. Stats…
And flavors of the month.
Drew looks like a demon possessed,
or a SAINT that's BLESSED.
by MattDat on Jan 10, 2012 10:23 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
then how is boasting 3 probowl linemen valid
when that is a bigger popularity contest that 1/3 of the voting criteria is based on fan spamming?
Its funny
You bring up something that I have not mentioned. I didn’t boast about the 3fumble linemen being voted to the pro bowl.
But 2/3rd of the votes come from coaches and players from around the leauge. People who watch film. People who play against them
I don’t think the AP does.
Just sayin.
Drew looks like a demon possessed,
or a SAINT that's BLESSED.
by MattDat on Jan 10, 2012 10:36 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
If you don't think Justin Smith is an All-Pro...
You just haven’t watched him play. The dude is relentless on every down.
Sufficiently advanced sarcasm is indistinguishable from being an @$$hole.
by So. Cal. Niner. Fan. on Jan 10, 2012 10:38 AM CST up reply actions
By no means
I was trying to take the title away from the smiths. Mcwagner came here and was boasting about how the all pros are going wrestle Drew Brees to the ground. The claims im boasting about our Pro-Bowl linemen. When I haven’t said anything at all. I did read the full comments and the mention of all of Drews options to throw, standing behind a pro bowl line. You throw up two all-pro defenders who are going to wrestle Drew to the ground. It will be a match up to watch.
Justin Smith has to high motor, and this will be a good game.
A large portion of the pro-bowl is voted by Coaches and Players, seeing as how they count for two thirds of the voting.
Drew looks like a demon possessed,
or a SAINT that's BLESSED.
by MattDat on Jan 10, 2012 11:25 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
The first comment boasted about having options to throw behind a probowl line. I countered it by saying we have more all-pros. Being an All-pro is a much higher honor than the probowl. Our defense is not just going to stand there and allow all of these options run wild on us. Otherwise they wouldn’t be all-pros
you don't have to let all the options run wild
all Drew needs is one
"I don’t believe you are a true fan unless you are upset when they lose." -Me
didnt meant to put the word "fumble" in the post.
Mobile site reconizes stirng of words and I believe it autocorrects.
Drew looks like a demon possessed,
or a SAINT that's BLESSED.
by MattDat on Jan 10, 2012 10:42 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I was using the all-pro
which is recognized around the league as a more illustrious award than the probowl that the comment I replied to was bragging about having 3 probowl linemen. Its funny you did not read the thread and understand that.
All of our all-pros are more than deserving of the title. Voted on by 50 of the most respected members of the Associated Press and that is all. How they judge is up to them. A large portion of the probowl is voted on the typical person you see standing in front of you at the DMV and is a die-hard Bucs fan and thinks that Josh Freeman is the best player in the league. If the probowl is valid, then take away the stupid fan votes.
Ruh roh
Voted on by 50 of the most respected members of the Associated Press and that is all
Doesn’t Peter King get a vote? QUALIFIED OPINION on your comment.
I like Hamburgers!
Uh oh...better put an Asterisk on it.
thanks grumps
Forgot to mention that too.
Drew looks like a demon possessed,
or a SAINT that's BLESSED.
by MattDat on Jan 10, 2012 11:27 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
THAT DOESN'T COUNT!
One idiot vote is 2% instead of the 33% of potential idiots…
Dammit, you got me.
Quit making me want to rec your post for the sheer hilarity.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
I rec'd it
I couldn’t help myself.
I’m so ashamed.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 3:12 AM CST up reply actions
key word
Potential. It is true, there might be a few idiots among the probowl vote.
But c’mon man really? That dumbass standing in line at the DMV or MVD (Depending on what state you live in) wearing the Josh Freeman jersey might not have time to vote for him to the pro-bowl. Cause we all now how long that might take.
All jokes aside the AP is all about the talking heads and what their hottest topic is about. You can’t discredit the pro-bowl as a popularity contest when the AP is the exact same thing.
Not to mention that the 50 votes come from the talking heads who are in the limelight the most, and are in bigger markets than let’s say, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay…
Drew looks like a demon possessed,
or a SAINT that's BLESSED.
by MattDat on Jan 10, 2012 12:10 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
then lets agree
that having probowlers or all-pros is not a great argument. Its a team game anyways.
I’m curious who you think on the All-Pro team doesn’t deserve the spot – meaning they’re not arguably the right pick. There are positions on pro-bowl that I find very questionable, such as Urlacher and Freeney. Hell, our Joe Staley probably got in because of the Joe Show.
Jason Peters.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
What…you asked, I answered. Condescension isn’t needed. I’m well aware the AP vote is a celebrated vote with much more standing than the Pro Bowl, even if others here are not. Derrick Johnson doesn’t get an AP vote as a starting OLB because he’s in a big market or on a talking point team. He gets it because he earned it. Just like pretty much everyone else. Well…except for Peters.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
I’m not being condescending…you gave one name with no info on who you think is better…not much to reply to. Apparently you’re now agreeing with us.
Staley is an all-pro alternate.
Yes, I was surprised. But apparently he does not suck.
1 person who does deserve it thhats not in is Suh
Hard to argue that he doesn’t belong he is one of the most dominate players in the league
That proves alot of this is a popularity contest in many ways
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 11, 2012 5:10 AM CST up reply actions
Suh does not deserve
He definitely has the talent to be an all-pro, and is very close. But he is still very undisciplined and reckless. We exposed that in our game against Detroit. Once he settles down and follows his responsibilities then he will be unstoppable.
Suh is not in it because he was suspended.
If you are suspended you are not eligible. Same reason Will Smith is not eligible, not that he would have made it anyway.
Drew Brees....MVS Most Valuable Saint! Who Dat!!!
by cajuncommando58 on Jan 11, 2012 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
Read above
I never mentioned or hinted that anyone was not deserving.
Drew looks like a demon possessed,
or a SAINT that's BLESSED.
by MattDat on Jan 11, 2012 8:51 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
By the way...
Love the “No Punt Intended”.
Sufficiently advanced sarcasm is indistinguishable from being an @$$hole.
by So. Cal. Niner. Fan. on Jan 10, 2012 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
Is your personal attack directed specifically at the person who posted this?
or just all CSC members in genral?
SF has not played an offense this year of the same caliber as the Saints. The Saints have not played a defense this year of the same caliber as the 49ers.
How many ways are there to say those two sentences?
Apparently a lot.
Because the Saints and 49ers homers seem to ignore those facts.
It should be a really good game. But anyone thinking the 49ers hold the Saints to under 17 or that the Saints will score over 31 are frankly being a bit ridiculous.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
I guess i'm good...
SF-27
NO-24
O
Sufficiently advanced sarcasm is indistinguishable from being an @$$hole.
by So. Cal. Niner. Fan. on Jan 10, 2012 10:41 AM CST up reply actions
A perfectly respectable prediction, not too far off from my own.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
To be honest.
I think that the line on the game is a fair expectation – score like the last year game.
God damn, I still can not get over that he pushed in a tipped field goal.
But that expectation does leave to the 49rs a whole lot of room to win. One thing that changed – Smith ain’t throwing interceptions. I think he tied for third in history for the least amount of INT for more then 400 attempts in a year.
True, but
It’s easy to counter things like that. Drew is turning the ball over at half the rate he was last year. Our offense is much better than last years….your defense is much better than last years…etc, etc.
I don’t really see how the prediction leads to believe the 49ers have a lot more wiggle room than the Saints do. They’re fairly even matchup wise…which pretty much means the wiggle room will be even as well.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
Drew is turning the ball over at half the rate he was last year
Careful with that stat Jeff. Brees should have been picked up close to 10 times in our last 6-7 games.
Repeat? Run it!
Yes, but wasn’t…hence still half.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
Honest question
How worried are you about Graham in that respect?
I’ve watched him, and the kid is phenomenal, but he also has a tendency to tip overthrown balls up, where the defense can get it. Detroit didn’t exploit that, but Patrick Willis or Dashon Goldson would.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 10, 2012 7:12 PM CST up reply actions
Not at all. He’s young…makes mistakes. But that’s happened maybe a handful of times all season. You can’t really worry about something that has happened so seldom or else you’re going to be doing nothing but worry constantly. That’s just not healthy. Drew intentionally throws a lot of those high do to Graham being 6’7 and his ability to leap. He just needs to anticipate better and get his hands up so he’s not tipping it up in one motion.
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
I should have won the lottery two or three times...
but for some reason, I didn’t.
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by Dave Cariello on Jan 10, 2012 8:51 PM CST up reply actions
Maybe if you'd stop dropping sure winning tickets...
Repeat? Run it!
by FrenchFreak on Jan 10, 2012 10:19 PM CST up reply actions
Early last season
The offense sucked and the defense won the games. Midway through the roles started to change. This year, our offense has looked flat at times. But more stellar than flat. Hence all the blow outs.
Can’t compare last year to this year. No way.
Saints 31 SF 19.
Drew looks like a demon possessed,
or a SAINT that's BLESSED.
by MattDat on Jan 10, 2012 1:08 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Early last season.
Niners went five losses in a row, fired there bumbling offensive coordinator three games into the season and then went overhauled the team to improve from 6-10 to 13-3 while sending the league leading number of players to all-pro and pro-bowl teams.
Can’t compare last year to this year. No way.
SF 27 Saints 24
by Mindless on Jan 10, 2012 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Losing Darren Sharper hurt you guys significantly on defense.
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I like the guy a lot
but 36 yo injury riddled safeties get replaced. Especially when they have large contract demands.
No
Because he got old. If he was 5 years younger, we’d have kept him.
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
Same could go for Deuce...
Repeat? Run it!
by FrenchFreak on Jan 10, 2012 10:19 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah because.. you know...
9 interceptions really hurt you. An your INT’s dramatically decreasing since his departure was all because he was “too old”.
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You like him?
have the 49ers pick him up.
"So I'll leave you with this. And I say this with all sincerity, right from the bottom of my heart, and with all due respect: Lick my balls." Grandmaster Wang
by DrWhoDat on Jan 11, 2012 3:45 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Let’s see… scheme changes, personnel changes, oh and of course the fact that he was INJURED so badly he needed major knee surgery and never recovered. Some of that points to him, but not all of it. Then add in that Porter got injured, who was the architect of many of those other INTs, Gay got injured and retired, Patrick Robinson was a rookie last year who’s only NOW just starting to be decent, Johnny Patrick is a rookie THIS year whose also barely starting to get any playing time, Prioleau was a nobody who wasn’t any good, Torrence is a nobody, oh and Harper can’t catch to save his life, despite multiple potential INTs landing all-but in his hands.
But yeah, D#’s departure was the ONLY reason our interception total went down. Right. Whatever you say.
And let's not forget...
…he was benched in Minnesota before coming to the Saints even if the Vikes were close to last against the pass.
Repeat? Run it!
He missed key tackles too.
There were several long runs that were his fault due to bad angles.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 3:16 AM CST up reply actions
Speaking of not throwing INTs
Drew Brees is carrying a record for most consecutive pass attempts without an INT in playoff games (215 attempts from 2006 to the present date). He holds the records for highest completion percentage (66.7%) and lowest INT percentage (0.70%) in the playoffs for his career.
Those are records that he holds over Young and Montana for all of those who were giving us grief for saying we’d take Brees over either of them…
by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 7:36 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Throw over 70% completion in a season and we’ll talk. We can all throw out a figure here or there, but you have failed to address what I put up there. Or maybe your world is just that simple.
Either way, when Brees hangs them up and still holds these records and throws 0 INTs in multiple Super Bowls, you still won’t talk. Just admit it now.
by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 8:16 AM CST up reply actions
blah blah blah
Brees is a good QB, but not on either of their levels. He may end up like Young, but I highly, highly doubt he’ll win 3 more rings at age 32. Stats are nice, but are just stats at the end of the day (in a completely different era). Keep on rambling though…
Didn’t we go through this exercise for last week’s game?
by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 7:26 AM CST up reply actions
I'll just go ahead and put it up...
NO 35
SF 21
I’m just hoping Alex Smith makes it through the game healthy with all the hits he’ll be taking. I’m actually allowing more points to SF than I was thinking earlier in the week, too.
by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 7:28 AM CST up reply actions
Akers didn't break the FG record for nothing.
7 field goals at home? I guess so.
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
by Alex Swift on Jan 12, 2012 7:43 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Saints against the NFC West:
0-1 With only 283 total yards while surrendering 323. 59 yards rushing with a paltry 2.8 rushing average. Thirty yards below the leagues worst. The Saints have a proven track history of struggles against the NFC West and will now be playing their best. They also cannot run on the NFC West and may actually end up with negative yardage.
Cherry picking stats can make the 0-16 Lions look like a powerhouse.
Come now...
Nothing can make the 0-16 Lions look like a powerhouse.
:)
Sufficiently advanced sarcasm is indistinguishable from being an @$$hole.
by So. Cal. Niner. Fan. on Jan 10, 2012 10:53 AM CST up reply actions
challenge accepted
Drew Stanton had a 95 QB rating and was not given the opportunity to show his abilities. With Stanton playing year round with Calvin Johnson, who still had 1000 yards receiving despite the QB carousel, A dynamic passing attack would have been established. Even against the mighty Bear defense they put up over 300 yards offense with Orlovsky. Kevin Smith’s 4.1 rushing average was more than adequate. Committing to Stanton would have made that team a force to be reckoned with.
by mcwagner on Jan 10, 2012 11:42 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs
You win, You win. *bows head in defeat*
Sufficiently advanced sarcasm is indistinguishable from being an @$$hole.
by So. Cal. Niner. Fan. on Jan 10, 2012 5:14 PM CST up reply actions
If it makes you feel any better...
I wasn’t expecting him to pull it off either. McWagner’s BS abilities are strong. Deservedly rec’d.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 10, 2012 7:13 PM CST up reply actions
Saints vs. NFC West?
Let’s build a tally, shall we? Yes, let us. We’ll go back six seasons. See how our (Brees/Payton) Saints did against the NFC West
2011: @ S.L.- L 31-21
2010: @ S.F.- W 25-22, @ AZ- L 30-20, Sea.- W 34-19, S.L.- W 31-13, (Wild Card Rd.) @ Sea.- L 41-36
2009: @S.L.- W 28-23, (Div. Rd.) AZ- W 45-14
2008: S.F.- W 31-17
2007: @Sea.- W 28-17, @S.F.- W 31-10, S.L.- L 37-29, AZ- W 31-24
2006: S.F.- W 34-10
That comes to $10wins, 4losses +tax.
2 Losses to none other than the Rams. NO> 2-2 2-1 2-1 <AZ
0 Losses against San Francisco in six seasons. Two at home, two on the road. NO> 4-0 <S.F.
Looks like NFC West has more of a struggle with The Saints, than anything. Let’s go back further and see when the last time San Fran. has beaten NO. 2001. It’s been over a decade.
Now, just so we’re clear. I don’t think that this will have any bearing on the game this weekend, because S.F. is a great team, but if you’re talking about cherry picking stats, you can at least pick stats that are true.
"Who are we? We find that we live on an insignificant planet of a humdrum star lost in a galaxy tucked away in some forgotten corner of a universe in which there are far more galaxies than people. " -Carl Sagan
by crescendo2020 on Jan 10, 2012 8:28 PM CST up reply actions
Bleh
I don’t know how I lost a portion of my reply, but it should have read:
2 losses to Rams
1 loss to Seattle
1 loss to Arizona
0 losses to San Francisco
"Who are we? We find that we live on an insignificant planet of a humdrum star lost in a galaxy tucked away in some forgotten corner of a universe in which there are far more galaxies than people. " -Carl Sagan
by crescendo2020 on Jan 10, 2012 8:30 PM CST up reply actions
Cool.
That has no significance to the upcoming game.
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The Hometown Fan
thats my point
The cherry picking stats of this post have no significance exactly how my comment has no significance as his did not either. You cannot look at a piece of paper, take away the things you don’t like and substitute them with the things you do. In the end you have this: Two teams with the same record earned by completely different measures. This game will center around an excellent defense and an excellent offense. Let the fireworks begin.
I know I wonder which will prevail
the chicken or the egg
the owl or the pussycat
the Peaches or the Herb
the Shark or the Eagle
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 11, 2012 9:13 PM CST up reply actions
He just said that in his post.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 3:23 AM CST up reply actions
But we looked really pretty in our uniforms.
C’mon though. You can’t say we’re going to lose because we lost to the Rams. That’s ridiculous. I invoke the any given Sunday rule.
They wanted it more that week. Stephen Jackson was like a madman.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 3:22 AM CST up reply actions
That was the perfect storm
St. Louis celebrating their World Series title, which had a great affect on the crowd for anybody paying attention, coupled with us coming off a blowout win and looking forward to a divisional opponent the following week. As many have said, that was our wake-up call.
I’m not sure that y’all can say the same for the Arizona game, given that the Seattle game wasn’t a dominating performance by any means over a team with one of the worst QBs in the league when y’all were playing to secure the 2nd seed.
by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 7:40 AM CST up reply actions
You asked how well the NFC West stacked up rushing the ball...
Would it surprise you to learn that it is the only division in the NFL that has four 1000 yard rushers? All four lead backs, Frank Gore, Beanie Wells, Stephen Jackson, and Marshawn Lynch all had more than 1000. Gore and Lynch both had over 1200.
It seems like good competition to me.
Sufficiently advanced sarcasm is indistinguishable from being an @$$hole.
by So. Cal. Niner. Fan. on Jan 10, 2012 10:37 AM CST reply actions
Should be interesting
Here’s what the Saints have given up to the top league rushers:
MJD @ JAX (11-84, long 41)
Turner @ ATL (22-96, 21)
Turner @ NO (11-39, 7)
Steven Jackson @ STL (25-159, 32)
Chris Johnson @ TEN (11-23, 9)
Saints are better then you think at stopping the run against non-Ram opponents
I never said they weren't
I was simply addressing the fact that the 49ers did have some good competition running the ball, and didn’t “pad” their rush defense by playing poor rushing teams. The NFC west has 3 upper echelon run stopping defense, so the fact that they played each other actually minimized their rushing stats. If you look at the totals, with four different 1000 yard rushers, the division actually was good at rushing, they simply had to do it against the better run stopping teams. The fact that they had four 1000 yard rushers, while having a large percentage of games against the best run stopping defenses accentuates that fact.
Also, don’t the Saints allow approximately 5 yds per rush?
Sufficiently advanced sarcasm is indistinguishable from being an @$$hole.
by So. Cal. Niner. Fan. on Jan 10, 2012 5:20 PM CST up reply actions
OK
I was showing that we’ve also seen good RBs this season. I thought you were saying (and maybe you are) that the Saints can’t stop the run. And at 5.0 yard per, they don’t look good.
But if you look deeper, while the Saints give up a huge play here or there, overall rushing doesn’t work that well. They’re 12th in the NFL in yards rushing allowed, and 13th in first downs rushing allowed. Not great, but better than people think.
Interesting that the two teams that have the least rushing attempts against them are the 49ers and the Saints
Different reasons for it
But yes our opponents have given up on the run almost totally in the 4th quarter. VS Saints it’s been too far behind, VS 9ers, it’s inefficitveness and/or injury. 1 of our local writers had a list of how people ran vs the 9ers, not complete but we started on an amazing run.
Week 1 vs. Seattle: Lynch carried 13 times for 33 yards and did not touch the ball in the fourth quarter.
Week 2 vs. Dallas: Jones sustained a shoulder injury on linebacker Patrick Willis’ tackle in the first quarter. He rushed nine times for 25 yards.
Week 3 at Cincinnati: Benson gained 64 yards on 17 carries and did not touch the ball for the final 10 minutes of the game.
Week 4 at Philadelphia: McCoy was shaken up while trying to pick up Ray McDonald on a blitz. He returned and finished with 18 yards on nine carries, but he did not touch the ball for the final 9:30 of the game.
Week 5 vs. Tampa Bay: Blount gained 34 yards on 10 rushing attempts and did not return after sustaining a hamstring injury when safety Dashon Goldson upended him with a third-quarter tackle.
Week 6 at Detroit: Best gained 37 yards on 12 rushing attempts and did not play in the final 10 minutes of the game after sustaining a concussion.
Knocking people out
It’s what our front 7 does. Revenge of the Smiths!
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 10, 2012 7:16 PM CST up reply actions
The NFCW rushing ranking
49ers 8th
Seahawks 21st
Rams 23rd
Cards 24th
They havent been that good other then the 49ers
NFCS
Panthers 3rd
Saints 6th
Falcons 17th
Bucs 30th
Much better except the Bucs
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 11, 2012 5:26 AM CST up reply actions
Also against the run
NFCW
49ers 1st
Seahawks 15th
Cards 21st
Rams 31st
NFCS
Falcons 6th
Saints 12th
Panthers 25th
Bucs 32nd
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 11, 2012 5:31 AM CST up reply actions
Your arguement that the NFCW is much better at rushing and stopping the rush holds no water
The Nfc south is clearly dominate on rushing compared to the Nfc west
And defending the run is to close to call or minimal difference
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 11, 2012 5:33 AM CST up reply actions
Also
Forte (10-49, 42) although he killed us as a receiver that day (10-117, 21)
AP (10-60, 39)
Blount (13-72, 27)
I hate to break it to you...
But those numbers really aren’t that impressive…
Your best run defense seems to be getting a lead and forcing teams to pass…
Most impressive are the CJ2K and Turner in NO, but other than that, those backs had big averages…
As Takeo said, those teams abandoned the run to pass
Probably should have stuck with it.
4.9, 6 and 5.5 yards a carry
Again, not claiming NO is a premier defensive team
My point, though, is that you can’t assume that a top running back will have a day to remember, because there have been several instances where they have been surprised.
Turner, MJD, CJ2K, Forte, AP, Blount, none of them crossed into the end zone against the Saints. And 7 YPC doesn’t mean squat when you can’t get it into the end zone.
Also, Forte and AP got stuffed on 9/10 runs. Averages don’t measure effectiveness in those situations.
Which people claim that their team can defeat our professional football squad?
And non-Panther opponents…they gashed us for over 160 yards each game. Of course, that has a lot to do with Cam Newton.
by BlackandGold4ever on Jan 12, 2012 7:50 AM CST up reply actions
Pythagorean analysis
thinks the top teams in the NFL are:
SF (11.7-12.3 wins)
NO (11.6-12.1)
GB (11.3-11.9)
NE (11.1-11.6)
PIT (10.8-11.2)
BAL (10.7-11.2)
I used two exponents, 2 and 2.37. I’m not set up to have floating exponents based on strengths of schedule, offense, defense, league, etc. If you don’t know what the I’m talking about, read this here
Then I looked at the divisions at a whole.
AFCN (9.12) NFCN (9.10) AFCE (8.86) NFCS (8.17) NFCE (8.13) NFCW (7.30) AFCS (6.80) AFCW (6.33)
You can see that the NFC South is substantially better than the NFC West.
If you look at simple point differential, we get
NO (+206) GB (201) NE (171) SF (151) BAL (112) HOU (103)
but this seems to make the high scoring teams rise to the top. But by taking a ratio of points scored / points allowed we get this
SF (1.66) NO (1.61) GB (1.56) NE (1.50) PIT (1.43) BAL (1.42) HOU (1.37)
In short, this is a top team that we’re about to play, but the fact that they played in a bad division may have helped inflate their record somewhat, although both teams had a weak strength of schedule. It’s really a toss up. This is probably the Saints’ biggest challenge so far this season.
you guys played Green Bay
I’m a 49er homer but they were your biggest challenge to date (besides the Rams of course)
But they don't have a defense
That’s what makes this game so interesting
by CoachOfEarl on Jan 10, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions
NFC west?
Last year you lost to Arizona and Seattle ended your playoff run. Win against 49r came on a last minute field goal at the time when the previous 49r regime was imploding.
This year Rams did cost you #2 seed.
If it is so bad, why do you keep losing to it?
We tend to lose to bad teams
and win against good teams.
2011 losses v bad teams: Rams, Bucs
2011 wins v playoff teams: Texans, Giants, Failcons, Lions
2010 losses v bad teams: Browns, Cardinals
2010 wins v playoff teams: Falcons, Steelers, Seahawks
by CoachOfEarl on Jan 10, 2012 12:24 PM CST up reply actions
one of the greatest mysteries of our time..
but.. we breaking the trend saturday.. & we drop “la creme” of the west in their hizzy.. (wind, rain, irrigation system on, fog, whatever)
saints roll.. get ready..
no doubt..
by the 9th plague on Jan 10, 2012 1:04 PM CST up reply actions
Any given Sunday
Drew looks like a demon possessed,
or a SAINT that's BLESSED.
by MattDat on Jan 10, 2012 2:04 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Because your mom!
trapped in grammar and calendars.
by Jay Preece on Jan 10, 2012 2:05 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
My mom is a renowned clinical psychologist.
If she were to play for the 49rs, Saints entire offensive line would assume a fetal position, cry on the Candlestick grass and never play football again.
It would have been funny if it was not true. Yes, I have had a very difficult childhood, but now I am immune. When they sent me for my anger management class, that poor shrink quit his job and is now a veterinarian in Bakersfield. True story.
Blue collar team VS Flashy Hollywood passing attack
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The Hometown Fan
Wouldn't that be Miami/Southbeach?
-Lombardi was wrong...it's the internet, not fatigue that makes cowards of us all. But then again, what do you expect. Not like the guy could see the future.
We padded our stats against bad RBs? Seriously?
Marshawn Lynch twice, Stephen Jackson twice, Beanie Wells twice, Felix Jones, Cedric Benson, LeSean McCoy, LaGarrette Blount, Rashard Mendenhall, Brandin Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw, and Ray Rice. And we dominated them all, save for Lynch in week 16.
Until week 16, nobody sniffed 100 yards or a rushing TD. Hard to believe you can write those names off as nothing special. Say what you want about how bad you think our division is, but that’s an impressive resume of backs to dominate over a season.
"Bears are crazy, Willie. They'll bite your head off if you're wearing steak on it."
by Blank x2 on Jan 10, 2012 6:50 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Also
For any arguments that we fattened up on a weak division, we went 3-1 against the AFC North (and would love a rematch with BAL in February), and 3-1 against the NFC East, a division I think is over-rated by pundits, but which many outside of the NFC West just automatically assume is a great division.
"Football combines the two worst things about America: It is violence punctuated by committee meetings" -George Will
by lottwasgangsta on Jan 10, 2012 7:18 PM CST up reply actions
You lost to the Ravens and beat a hobbled Rothlisberger
Everyone watched that Steelers game Big Ben should never have been in their
He was the 49ers MVP dont think Drew will play like that
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 11, 2012 5:40 AM CST up reply actions
And remember
Our line is better then the Steelers
Our Qb is better then the Steelers
Our running game is better then the Steelers
Our passing game is better then the Steelers
Our recievers is better then the Steelers
Our TE is better then the Steelers
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 11, 2012 5:43 AM CST up reply actions
and remember
their d-line is better
their lbs are better
their DBs are better
They stop the rush better
They stop the pass better
Steelers Wallace is better than any Saints receiver
Heath Miller is no slouch
I will take Colston or Moore any day
And you only put up 20 points against the Steelers and most of those were set up by Big Bens turn overs
I think Denver put up more points against them just the other day
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 11, 2012 8:32 AM CST up reply actions
Good point. The Denver game was usual and nothing extraordinary about it.
Big Ben just handed us turnovers. Its not like we forced him by collapsing his pocket, forcing throws that were covered, and dived for interceptions. All of those hand me out turnovers also occurred on our side of the field save for the final one that happened well into the 4th quarter when the game was essentially over. And none of this disputes the fact that they do have all of those things better than you and we still beat them convincingly.
Our offense is heads and tails above theirs
They have a better D but thats it
I doubt the 49ers could score enough to keep up
But thats why they play the game
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 11, 2012 10:36 AM CST up reply actions
Their defemse is heads and tails above yours
You have a better O but thats it
I doubt the Saints could score enough to keep up
There is more to the game than Madden-esque offenses
Contrary to what 49ers believe
In today’s NFL offenses win championships
by mississippisaintsfan on Jan 11, 2012 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
correction
good teams win Championships. 2010’s Packers #5 defense vs. Pittsburgh #2 defense. Packers #9 offense and Steelers #14 offense.
not our fault
they put him out there and we shut them out. That argument is as valid as the coach was making mistakes. If that is the case we get to redo 2010. If Drew played like that I would throw up. I expect the Saints to play their hearts out and give us a great game.
really? I call b*** s***!
“Until week 16, nobody sniffed 100 yards.”
I guess you forgot about:
- Week 4 (108 yards by Philly)
- Week 5 (86 yards by Tampa^)
- Week 10 (93 yards by New York Giants^^)
- Week 12 (92 yards by Baltimore)
- I won’t count Week 15 (84 yards by Pitt) because it missed my arbitrary cut-off of 85 yards by 1)
And, just for completeness (as you’ve mentioned)
Week 16 (124 yards by Seattle)
Week 17 (111 yards by St. Louis^^^)
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2011.htm
-
/^ We held Tampa to 84 in Week 9.
/^^ We held New York Giants to 73 in Week 12.
/^^^ And for completeness, we gave up 183 to St. Louis in Week 8.
and, of those teams, the only one that ended the season with an overall average per game better than that of the Saints’ was Philly @ 6 yards better.
And, only one team in the NFL had a better running yards per game average over the last three game than the Sants (@ 179.7 <— that’s not a typo) and that’s Carolina (@ 200).
I think the diffrence between the divisions is this
a good defense is all you need when you play Tavaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, or Sam Bradford. You shut down their running game, make them pass (especially if it’s windy or bad weather in SF and even if it’s not bad weather) and you have a victory. Against the NFC North or NFC East or NFC South you have Brees, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, maybe Josh freeman, Rodgers,Cutler, Matt Stafford, Eli Manning, Michael Vick, Grossman, Tony Romo with the exception of Ponder at Minn) these are mostly better QBs than the NFC West QBs that you play against (Jackson, Kolb, Bradford). With the exception of the inconsistency of Romo, Grossman and maybe Cutler, they are all better and those 3 (Romo, Grossman, Cutler) play at a high level much of the time. So, you need more than FGs to beat these QBs (Most of the NFC North, South and East). . When Alex Smith plays against Bradford, Jackson, or Kolb/Skelton, he is playing against QBs and he is on another level from them he is better than them. Against the other QBs I mentioned, not so much.
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
by Philinwood on Jan 10, 2012 9:36 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
crossout not intended
"We've established the run; we've established the pass. Now all we have to establish is another championship!"
"Some say the glass is half empty;
Some say the glass is half full.
I say- 'are you going to finish that beer'?"
I get your point MtnExile
You probably should have been more simple with the wording and just say that the 49ers D may be 4th overall but 4th overall in D does not necessarily stop the saints #1 offense from scoring more than the 9ers mediocre offense. And second, the saints have stopped some very good rushing attacks recently, our weakness has been in the passing game and the 9rs don’t have one. The game will be good, the teams will be playing hard as hell. I just don’t see it being a FG game when it comes to the saints.
And as Phil stated above – the quarterback play from Brees will be well above what you’ve seen this year. You guys have played Romo, Eli Manning and Stafford all good QBs but I think you know that Brees is playing better than all of those guys this year.
The problem in the world today is communication. Too much communication. - Homer Simpson
First: The NFC West is not the weakest division in the NFL.
Now to your “Advanced Statistical Analysis of the 49ers”…..
If you eliminate the division games we played the run defense looks like this:
Rush YPG allowed: 77.1
Yards Per Rush allowed: 3.4
BOTH of those stats are actually BETTER than our overall 16-game average. So your point that our #1 run defense ranking is inflated by the NFC West is wrong.
What about the passing defense benefiting from the “weak” NFC West? Well, lets take a look:
Pass Yards Per Pass allowed: 6.7
And guess what… That is BETTER than our regular stat. 6.7 YPP is 5th best in the league.
And finally, points per game. And guess what! This number is BETTER than our regular number also.
Points per game allowed: 14
This whole article is a failure.
by mikeinsp on Jan 11, 2012 11:38 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
But.. but.. but..
Admitting that the arguments about inflated stats due to a crappy division is so much easier to make then to actually take a look at the actual numbers….
Just assume and move on… Sooo easy..
I see what you did there.
You bolded a**.
That’s clever.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 3:27 AM CST up reply actions
I think the reason many of us think of the NFC West as crappy is because of the Q-backs.
Alex Smith, Tavaris Jackson, Kolb/Skelton, whoever’s starting for Saint Louis lately. These are all pro Q-backs, just none of them are elite. And it’s tough (not impossible) to win the Superbowl with a non-elite QB. But I will agree with you that it’s really tough to pad your stats against division rivals. They see you twice a year, they draft to beat you, etc..
On the other side of the coin, 6 games is too small a sample size to draw any conclusions.
Nice analysis
I swear I’ve never seen an opposing team’s fans (Niners, that is) so obsessed with refuting what is said by their opponent’s fans! Inferiority complex, you think? Is it that they used to have a Dynasty and they’re longing for the good ol’ days? Their own blog is that boring?
I don’t get it.
when you put up wrong information and accept it as truth, we tend to refute it.
The Saints have the worst rushing attack in the league and that is why Drew Brees has to throw so much. That statement makes as much sense as the post.
Yes, and you really go out of your way to do so
Heck, I don’t know, maybe other teams fans do that. I’ve just never seen such an infiltration of fans go try to mess up a fun time on another teams site. Sure, do it at home all you want to. I’m a homer beyond compare AT HOME.
I don’t see anyone messing up our fun time. Just messing up the small percentage of fun times based on flawed analysis.
“HEY. YOUR FUN ISN’T MATHEMATICALLY ACCURATE.” (blows whistle) – 49ers fans.
trapped in grammar and calendars.
Ha! Never took a close look at your picture. Ha!
Still I’m getting tired of it. It’s like a bunch of children. Stay at home with that $#^#. Who needs to bring it on the road. I’ve tried my best to get things from getting all contentious on the Niners thread. That’s a good place for it. But, when it leaks over to other threads, I’m just offended. That’s ridiculous.
By the way, Jay. I don't mind a Saints fan disagreeing with stats. That's fine
and expected. It just seems over-the-top for another team’s fans to do it. It’s why I stay away from other sites, unless it’s one of those threads specifically for Saints fans. I expect they are going to be making all kinds of crazy out-your-a$$ statements on their own site. Sure! Why not! But, I stay away because I don’t want to hear it and I sure wouldn’t have the lack of class to contend with their statements on their own site!
Maybe I’m wrong but, if it keeps up, I may just step out until after the game and ONLY return if we win because I’ve got an awful feeling these guys would be the kind to come back and gloat. Don’t need it. Too crass and tacky for me.
Fair enough. I think cross-site pollination is one of the best things about SB Nation.
trapped in grammar and calendars.
by Jay Preece on Jan 12, 2012 10:20 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
If I saw this behavior from all teams fans, I'd have to change my mind
This is the first team this year
Lions fans weren't too bad.
At least until after the game. Bunch of sore losers.
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
what would age have to do with anything
If you are wrong and a 3 year old points it out it doesn’t make it correct.
I can sit a three year old in the corner and take away his dessert.
I'd rather not wait until I'm dead to figure out how to live.
by hooahsaint2.0 on Jan 12, 2012 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
My daughter is twelve years old.
I do not let her post here.
There is no such thing as too small a sample size.
There is only accuracy of predictions.
Quite often, a single measurement can prove or disprove a theory.
If you do not realize that, you do not know anything how statistical analysis works.
The simplest possible example for you to ponder.
Throwing a coin and getting “tails” is entirely sufficient to completely disprove a theory that that coin has two “heads”.
Last word on the subject...ever
Hey, it’s the same words, just a different thread.
I will after this, either, just shutup, avoid where the infection lies, or figure you how to block. But, I will have my last word. The point is that I just don’t see the point. I don’t believe in futile efforts and that is nothing more futile than statistics. You an make them say whatever you want. And, especially with a 16 game season. There are not enough data points to say anything all that valid. Or, as the saying goes, Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference. If there is anything more futile and unlikely to change than a fan’s (remember what fan is short for: fanatic) opinion, I’d like to know what it is. So, fine, some people get their kicks that way and I thought that’s why Dave and, it seems, most of the other blogs set up ONE thread for that discussion. I was having a lot of fun there. Of course, I still wasn’t arguing stats. You could probably get me to argue stats if you put a gun to my head. But, I can’t imagine any other way I would waste my time. I’m not that bored ever.
And, don’t get me wrong. I LOVE reading and studying stats to find some crazy way (if necessary) to argue that my team is the BEST and will kick anybooby’s a$$. But, don’t for a minute think that I take it seriously. It’s just another way to have fun. And, that is why I decided to keep my mouth shut after this. I figure nobody can be foolish enough to think that they will ever find conclusive evidence before the fact as to which team is going to win. So, they must be just having fun, also, in some weird way that I can’t, for the life of me, comprehend. I guess arguing, at all, about anything just doesn’t do it for me and, surely, not about nonsense. I guess some people it does.
There is one stat that I can think of that is irrefutable, so far. The sun rises every morning. And, that’s one I would bet my bottom dollar on because, if it doesn’t, I won’t need that dollar, anyways.
Ok, I promise to leave it alone forevermore.
I can name you a few of the more futile things.
For example: complaining about arguing stats with an opponents’s fan. Pretty futile, I would think.
Here is another good list of futile things that Google gave me: http://www.healthinfo21.com/2011/03/stupidest-most-futile-things-men-do-to.html
I guess. I was hoping to just keep the discussions where it seems it belongs. Sigh.
Dumb-a$$ idea probably. I’ve always been a dreamer.
That article is beyond futile, but I’ve done enough in-depth futile talks today and there’s still more snow to shovel.
I love this
AccuScore provides football predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division, and making the playoffs.
“Precise probability”??!?!?
Well.
If they have said Bayesian probability, would it be more clear?
Oh I see
We’ve moved from the other thread to this one. I wonder how many comments this one will get by Sat lol.
Well
The rash is clearing up, but I think I will have to find a nice way to break it to my wife that I managed to come down with “Crabs as well as VD” by hanging around a Niners website (man they need better names in their receiving corp).
In the end, they are just like us really. Confident in their team. They are doing the same things a lot of Saints fans are really, but in bizarro fashion. So it’s all good in the neighborhood.
I like Hamburgers!
Uh oh...better put an Asterisk on it.
Prince Episode was awesome
I’m Rick James BITCH is a close second.
I like Hamburgers!
Uh oh...better put an Asterisk on it.
you forgot the sarcasm font
Good game
37 yards rushing
FIFY
Having the ball is better than not having the ball. And if you punt,
not only does it mean you don't have the ball anymore—
it means you didn't score, which sucks.
by Hans Petersen on Jan 16, 2012 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
Yes, the 49'er football team played well, got turnovers, and won.
49’er fans still fail entry-level statistics.
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