Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire
Week 4 games feature nine divisional contests. Find out how who to pick.
Roger has stolen my mojo. That's my rally cry, that's my fuel, that's the reason I'm going to have a good week this week and whip the guy in front of me. I'm taking all my anger, all the undeserved punishment, and I'm gluing a picture of Roger Goodell to the guy who lines up on the other side. Time to dominate.
This week's contests feature nine divisional games. Many times you can discount the records because division opponents know each other so well. That's why an 0-fer team can play an undefeated divisional opponent to the whistle and come out with a win. They get pumped and exited to play their rival and find extra incentive to forget the past weeks and play their best.
Last week, home teams went 8-8. The favorites went 6-10. I split the difference.
Last Week: 7 wins, 9 losses
Season Total: 20 wins, 28 losses
Season Average: 6.7 wins, 9.3 losses
Home Teams: 31 wins, 17 losses
Favored Teams: 29 wins, 19 losses
Best Season (2011): 173 wins, 83 losses
Canal Street Chronicles Rank (confidence points): 20 out of 25 (56 points out of 1st place)
This Week's Picks:
Saints over Packers - Upset #1 - Enough is enough. The Saints have had a rough go of it and the replacement officials provided the point difference in all 3 of their games, as opposed the one play against Green Bay on Monday. It's time for the Saints to forget about scheme and match-ups and focus all their energy, effort, and pent up anger against the guy lined up across from them. I'll look for the Saints to physically dominate Green Bay with a Confidence of 1.
Redskins over Bucs - Upset #2 - I don't trust Josh Freeman. Despite getting one of the best Guards in football and a "#1 WR", Freeman has looked like turd. I'll take the top fantasy scorer in Robert Griffin and the better coaching staff to pull off the upset against a well disciplined Shiano with a Confidence of 2.
Lions over Vikings - This game is a little tougher to pick because Christian Ponder's growth has become evident over the last two weeks. A divisional game also muddies the water. I like LeShoure, and I think he'll be the difference. The Lions secondary is probably the worst in the NFL, so this should be a very close contest. Lions with a confidence of 3.
Chiefs over Chargers - San Diego's offensive line has been horrible, and I think the Chiefs turned a new leaf. If Justin Houston continues his coming out party, Norv Turner might match his lowest scoring output a second week in a row. If Jamal Charles has another big day against the Chargers stout front 7, my fantasy teams will do very well, so I do have bias in this one, KC with a Confidence of 4.
Seahawks over Rams - This is a game I gave serious thought to going the other way with, but I think Pete Carroll and his oversized cornerbacks won't give Danny Amendola the wiggle room to be that crafty little Welker clone. Both teams feature a violent runner, but Seattle's RB is a little younger and healthier. At this point, Bradford is obviously the better QB. Fisher has gotten his team to play extremely well despite the talent they have on paper-every game has come down to the end. Yet you can say the same for Carroll. I'll take the Seahawks with a Confidence of 5.
Forty-niners over Jets - Without Revis, the Jets can't blitz with abandon. I like San Fran's rushing attack much more and doubt they only give Gore 10 carries in this one. I like Alex Smith's passing attack over Mark Sanchez, and I like the Niner D better than the Jets. On all levels, I like San Fran over the Jets with a confidence of 6.
Falcons over Panthers - Uncle. I've gone 0-3 picking against Atlanta this year, and I won't do it for a fourth consecutive week. The Falcons have one of the best scoring offenses and defenses this season. Who yelled a four letter word when Atlanta hired Mike Nolan in the offseason- raise your hand. Carolina got embarrassed by the Giants, but they have had a few extra days to prepare for this divisional game. However, Newton played his worst against the Falcons last year, so I'm taking Atlanta with a Confidence of 7.
Bengals over Jaguars - Where is Justin Blackmon, or even Laurent Robinson for that matter? Gabbert has made a game winning play to Cecil Shorts in 2 out of 3 games. Both teams will have a good rushing game, but the Bengals have at least two WR's that are doing well this season, so I'll take them with a Confidence of 8.
Broncos over Raiders - I'm 0-3 when picking a Raider game this year. Like the last few, they always do the opposite of what I think. This might be another week because McFadden historically has good days against Denver. Carson Palmer is top 5 in yardage, but I'm hesitant in picking Manning to lose a third consecutive game, so I'll roll with Denver, against my gut, with a Confidence of 9.
Cowboys over Bears - Okay Dallas, don't screw this up. I don't like Jay Cutler's pass protection (neither does he), and I love the CB play in Dallas. Rob Ryan can put those corners on an island and blitz like he was born to do. Cutler will have another hissy fit, so despite their safety woes, I'm going with Dallas and a Confidence of 10.
Giants over Eagles - Upset #3 - I think Vick is the most over-rated QB in the NFL and he continues to make mistakes against New York's defense. The blueprint has already been laid out, and I don't think Andy Reid can fight his nature and give McCoy the ball enough to have a chance. I like the two headed rushing attack the Giants now have with Bradshaw and Brown, and I love Eli on my fantasy teams, so I'm rolling with the G-Men, despite no Nicks, with a Confidence of 11.
Texans over Titans - Houston looks like the best team in the AFC right now. They held back a late Manning charge to come away with the victory last week. Jake Locker obviously had a big day in putting up over 40 points against a suspect Detroit secondary, but Houston's DBs will give their pass rush enough time to get home. Chris Johnson is a bum with 45 yards on 33 carries or something to that affect. Houston has the better running game in spades. I'll take the Texans against their divisional foe with a confidence of 12.
Patriots over Bills - this will be a very interesting game to watch if both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are healthy for it. The game is in Buffalo-where the Bills won it last year-and it is a divisional game. If Tom Brady hadn't already lost two in a row, I'd be picking the Bills. I'll go the other way with a Confidence of 14.
Cardinals over Dolphins - When I look at this game I think I am happy to have Ryan Williams on almost all of my 8 fantasy teams, especially considering I got him late and Beanie Wells is on IR with turf toe. I also have Bush on most of my teams, but he had a bounty on him last week and might not play on Sunday. Both teams have a solid defense, but Arizona's is better with their ability to pressure a rookie QB who lacks a rounded WR group. So I'll take the Cardinals to go 4-0 for the first time in over 50 years with a confidence of 15.