Preston's NFL Week 3 Pick 'Em

Week 2 was bass ackwards for many playing pigskin pick 'em. Home teams went an uncharacteristic 14-2, while the favorites went 10-6. If you picked strictly the home team, or strictly the favored team, you'd be averaging 11.5 wins and 4.5 losses every week.

Like the Saints, I've dug a hole that will take some work to get out of. Call it what you want, but for whatever reason, when the Saints lose I have a really bad week in pick 'em, and vice versa. It's time for a good week. The turnaround starts now. Teams are starting to get a true grasp on their weakness and strengths; likewise they have real film on this year's version of their opponents. A third week will be a trend, so by Week 4 we should be hitting our stride.

Last Week: 6 wins, 10 losses

Season Total: 13 wins, 19 losses

Season Average: 6.5 wins, 9.5 losses

Home Teams: 23 wins, 9 losses

Favored Teams: 23 wins, 9 losses

Best Season (2011): 173 wins, 83 losses

Canal Street Chronicles Rank (confidence points): 19 out of 25 (41 points out of 1^st place)

This Week's Picks

Ravens over Patriots: Since 2006, Tom Brady has only lost two consecutive games on two separate occasions. The Patriots have a banged up offensive line and they are without their wild-card Hernandez. The Ravens average three sacks on Brady, and the game is in Baltimore. I think the Ravens will hit the Patriots in the mouth and win by 3 points with a confidence of 1.

Chargers over Falcons: I think Matt Ryan and Mike Smith poop the horseshoe that's clogging their digestive tract when they make the trip to the west coast. San Diego has a very good front seven, and they've started the season a surprising 2-0. I like the Chargers pass rush and rush defense better than Atlanta's. The Falcons got 4 turnovers from noodle-arm Chad Pennington Peyton Manning and Moreno, yet only managed to turn them into 13 points. I like the Chargers to take care of the ball and get pressure on Ryan with a confidence of 2.

Colts over Jaguars: Last week I picked the Colts to win. Then when I went to type this up, I changed my mind (and pick). The neat part is that in the CSC league I play in, the picks get locked before the Thursday night game, so you can't get an injury report on Friday and change your pick for Sunday's game. I was stuck with the Colts in that league (and Bills), and it worked out for the better. Anyways, I won't change my mind here. The Colts got a pass rush going without Freeney, the game is in Indy, and Blaine Gabbert is looking better than last year but not as good as the pre-season. I think the Jacksonville owner needs to learn too with a confidence of 3.

Bengals over Redskins: Upset #1 - Remember my rule of picking at least two upsets? That is the reason I am picking the Bengals. Well, that and the fact the Redskins lost perhaps two of their best defensive players for the year last week. Robert Griffin is the best QB in fantasy football right now, and I don't think that will change this week, but I do believe Mike Zimmer will have a good plan to make things a little more difficult for Griffin. I like Andy Dalton's new target Hawkins, and I like Green-Ellis around the goal-line. I've got Alfred Morris and Ben Jarvis on 6 of my 8 fantasy teams, so I'm pretty sure I'm going to like this game. I'll take the Bengals with the upset with a confidence of 4.

Texans over Broncos: If Manning came back and beat the Falcons, I'd still pick the Texans. Houston is too balanced, and Manning doesn't have his "zing" on the ball-it's very noticeable on mid to deep throws. Even on the out patterns ten yards deep, the ball seems to take a while to get where it's going. Did you notice how after the 3 interceptions Manning mostly threw short passes? The Texans have a very fast front 7, and this won't cut it. I think the Texans win by double digits, with a confidence of 5.

Jets over Dolphins: Who would have thought Miami would dominate Oakland in convincing fashion? Or that Reggie Bush would look like a legit RB? Miami has a very tough defense, but so do the Jets. This is a divisional game, but I don't feel comfortable betting on Ryan Tannehill just yet. I have no faith in the Jets running game, nor Mark Sanchez, but I can't pull the trigger on Miami. So I'll take the Jets defense with a confidence of 6.

Panthers over Giants: Upset #2 - I hate making this pick, but the Giants are the road team after a very short rest, missing two WR's, a very important offensive lineman, and their top running back. I'm 0-2 on Thursday's (and was terrible with Thursday games last year), but I think the Panthers will be able to control the game thanks to their rushing attack. I like the Giants defense better, but not by much at this point, so I'm taking the home team, the healthy team, with a confidence of 7.

Cowboys over Bucs: Looks like Dallas ate the cheese. I'd love to see the Bucs win because I hate Dallas, but the Saints are currently 0-2 and need all their division opponents to lose, so I'll gladly take Dallas to play more like they did in the opener in a tough, hard fought battle. I trust the Cowboy's offense a little more with a confidence of 8.

Bills over Browns: Like Oakland, I can never get the Bills right. I like Fitzpatrick and love Spiller, but Weeden and Richardson looked great last week. In addition, Cleveland has a very good defense, despite the absence of Joe Haden. If Weeden weren't a rookie, I'd be taking Cleveland. As it is, I want to see Buffalo's defensive line produce pressure with a confidence of 9.

Bears over Rams: St. Louis has been a tough opponent each week, while the Bears looked to be on the verge of self destruction last week after looking like world-beaters against Andrew Luck. I think this is a very ugly game, but I believe the Bears will pull it out thanks to the size advantage of Brandon Marshall and the downhill running of Michael Bush, with a confidence of 10.

Eagles over Cardinals: Both teams have superb defenses. I prefer Shady McCoy over the Wells/Williams tandem. That about sums it up for me. I want Kolb to look good and redeem himself, but I think the Eagles win because Vick knows how to use his weapons and has looked good doing so in the past, so I'm taking the Eagles with a confidence of 11.

Steelers over Raiders: This is the reason I hate Oakland: I'll pick them to lose this game, and they'll win; yet when I pick them to win a game they should (see last week), they lose. I like Pittsburgh's defense better. I like their WR's and QB better. I'm taking the Steelers with a confidence of 12.

Lions over Titans: Jake Locker and Kenny Britt should explode in this game against Detroit's ailing secondary. That said, I like the Lions pass rush and offense to have the better day. I think this might be almost a shoot-out, but with the Lions winning by double digits while TN puts up over 20, with a confidence of 13.

Saints over Chiefs: KC is top 5 in the NFL in offensive yardage. Surprising? Hopefully the Saints remember to hand the ball off to Daren Sproles on the HB Sprint and Quick Draw, because I can't take another ****** team looking good and having their day in the sun against my Saints. Seriously, enough is enough. It's time to get through the labor pains and show us the baby. Saints in an offensive showdown where NO scores TDs while KC makes FGs with a confidence of 14.

Niners over Vikings: I regret to inform myself that I will not be picking against San Fran until November 25^th. This team is scary good, and I bet they have a passing game to go with the ball control if they ever need it. I like the growth in Ponder, but I can't pick a no WR having Viking team who lost to the Colts to keep the score close against a dominant Niner team. San Fran with a confidence of 15.

Packers over Seahawks: Seattle was one completion away from being 2-0. Pete Carroll is doing something right up there, but not enough to stop a Packer team that came alive last Thursday. I don't think this will be a blow-out, and I believe the big CB's in Seattle will give the Packers WRs some fits, but I have to take the safe bet and go with Green Bay with a confidence of 16.