The National Football League has a significant image problem. In recent years, it feels like they've spent more time making headlines for its off-the-field exploits than for the actual football games. From players getting routinely arrested to so-called bounty programs, the NFL has found itself on the back page of tabloids as much as on the front page of sports blogs and magazines.
We do not have to look very far to find proof of this sad state of affairs. On June 26, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez was arrested and charged with the first-degree murder of one of his associates, Odin Lloyd. The day before that, Cleveland Browns linebacker Ausar Walcott was arrested for attempted murder stemming from a bar fight. Not to be outdone, Indianapolis Colts Joe Lefeged was arrested on Saturday June 29 on gun-related charges.
Since the end of Super Bowl XLVII on February 3, there have been at least 33 arrests of NFL players. That's nearly seven arrests a month.
Amazingly, the NFL has not missed a beat. Despite all the negative publicity, it is enjoying an all-time high in ratings. Its revenue in 2012 was estimated at $9.7 billion, up from $8.87 billion dollars in 2011. An eye-popping 9.4% increase in a one year span. At this pace, the league's revenue in 2016 could hover around the $18 billion mark.
The NFL, however, is aware of the fact that it needs to clean up its act. As lucrative as the league has been over the past decade, things can change quickly in a fickle society and there is too much at stake to risk losing viewers or partners. Since taking over as commissioner prior to the start of the 2006 season, Roger Goodell has clearly made it his highest priority to restore the league's public image.
Goodell's heavy-handed approach to disciplining rule-breaking players has led teams to think twice before pursuing at-risk prospects. However, what team owners, coaches and fans want first and foremost is to win. More often than not, that includes signing talented players with checkered pasts and giving them multiple chances until they've burnt all their bridges. The higher the potential reward, the higher the risk a team will take.
This leads us to an intriguing question: how high has the reward actually been? Have teams who have taken more risks with talented troublemakers won more than teams who have stuck to the "great character locker room" approach? Conversely, have teams full of "good guys" won more because of a highly disciplined and functional locker room?
To try and answer this conundrum, I went through the interesting exercise of studying the NFL Arrests Database put together by Brent Schrotenboer and Merrie Monteagudo of the San Diego Union-Tribune. They have done an outstanding job of compiling all NFL arrests since 2000.
I decided to take in account the arrest numbers of all 32 NFL teams from 2006 on, which matches the start of Roger Goodell's iron-fisted tenure as NFL commissioner. My examination revolves around the admittedly subjective yet telling correlation between the number of arrests for a team and its winning percentage.
I divided the league's 32 teams into four groups: the "good guys" with the fewest number of arrests, the "not so bad guys," the "not so good guys" and finally the "bad guys," comprised of the teams with the most arrests since 2006.
The Good Guys
NFL Rank
|
Team |
Arrests |
Regular Season Record |
Win % |
1 |
|
4 |
50-62 |
0.450 |
2 |
|
6 |
59-53 |
0.530 |
3
|
|
7 |
72-40 |
0.643 |
4
|
|
7 |
57-55 |
0.510 |
5
|
|
8 |
50-62 |
0.450 |
6
|
|
8 |
64-48 |
0.571 |
7
|
Saint Louis Rams |
8 |
36-75-1 |
0.321 |
8
|
|
8 |
57-54-1 |
0.510 |
The "good guys" group shows that although character certainly matters, character alone isn't necessarily conducive to winning. In this group, only the Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys have records significantly over the .500 mark. Even teams like the San Francisco 49ers with their latest run of success have won only 51% of their games since 2006. The Good Guys Award winner, Arizona Cardinals, have a losing record in that time frame.
The Not So Bad Guys
NFL Rank
|
Team |
Arrests |
Regular Season Record |
Win % |
9 |
|
9 |
43-69 |
0.384
|
10
|
New England Patriots |
9 |
88-24 |
0.790 |
11
|
|
9 |
66-46 |
0.590 |
12
|
|
9 |
60-51-1 |
0.540 |
12
|
|
10 |
66-46 |
0.590 |
14
|
|
10 |
38-74 |
0.340
|
15
|
|
11 |
69-43 |
0.620
|
16
|
|
11 |
36-76 |
0.321 |
With the exception of the Bills, Raiders and Chiefs, this group is composed of perennially well-run franchises. Although these teams will take a few chances on at-risk players, they have the necessary veteran leadership to avoid any dysfunction. This group contains four recent Superbowl winners in the Patriots (2004), Giants (2007, 2011), Saints (2009) and Packers (2010).
The Not So Good Guys
NFL Rank
|
Team |
Arrests |
Regular Season Record |
Win % |
17 |
|
12 |
47-65 |
0.420
|
18
|
|
13 |
32-80 |
0.290 |
19
|
|
14 |
67-45 |
0.600 |
20
|
|
14 |
65-47 |
0.580 |
21
|
Cleveland Browns |
15 |
37-75 |
0.330
|
22
|
Indianapolis Colts |
15 |
74-38 |
0.661 |
23
|
|
16 |
71-41 |
0.634 |
24
|
|
16 |
53-59 |
0.473 |
This group is strikingly composed of both historically badly-run franchises and well-run organizations. Teams like the Redskins, the Lions or the Browns have had to take more chances on players with questionable character, yet to no avail when it comes to winning. On the other hand, the Colts, Falcons and Steelers have been able to compensate for a few bad apples with the talent already on their roster, especially at the quarterback position.
The Bad Guys
NFL Rank
|
Team |
Arrests |
Regular Season Record |
Win % |
25
|
|
18 |
45-67 |
0.402 |
26
|
|
18 |
70-42 |
0.630 |
27
|
|
19 |
55-57 |
0.491 |
28
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
20 |
46-66 |
0.411 |
29
|
Jacksonville Jaguars |
22 |
46-66 |
0.411 |
30
|
|
24 |
57-55 |
0.510 |
31
|
|
24 |
60-52 |
0.540 |
32
|
|
28 |
52-59-1
|
0.464 |
Surprisingly, the "bad guys" group is mostly composed of teams that have been mediocre for the past seven years. In that time span, only the San Diego Chargers have a significantly good record and they have been in a downward spiral the last few years.
What these charts show is that despite the league cracking down on law-infringing players in an attempt to repair its image, every NFL team will always be willing to take chances with troubled players, some more successfully than others. With the ever growing pressure to win today, coaches know what they most need in order to achieve that goal: talent first, character second.
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