Saints: Drew Brees' Decline is Vastly Overstated

The New Orleans Saints (2-3), a popular offseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl in 2014, started the season looking like anything but a serious Super Bowl contender. Bruised and battered both mentally and physically, the Saints have sputtered their way to a 2-3 record and are now limping into a much-needed bye week. As is often the case with an underachieving team, the fans and the media alike look for the reasons behind the team's struggles. Sometimes they just look for any answer, whether legitimate or not.

The latest attempt to justify the Saints struggles is the growingly popular belief that Brees' arm strength is waning. The Saints sit near the bottom of the league in passing plays of 20 yards or more and they have had a hard time with consistency on offense. What more to explain the Saints offensive demise if not the slow and steady decline of New Orleans' signal caller?

But wait: what about Brees' vanishing arm strength in 2007? Or his so-so start of 2008? How about the low completion percentage of 2012? Along with 2014, these are the only other years in which the Saints were under .500 after five games since Sean Payton took over in New Orleans.

Let's take a quick look at Brees' numbers through five games in each of those years. The numbers described in each of the tables below are: Passing attempts (Att), completed passes (Cmp), passing yards (Yds), completion percentage (Cmp%), percentage of touchdown passes (TD%) and interceptions (INT%) with regards to the total number of passing attempts, yards per attempts (Yds/Att), longest touchdown pass (LG), number of sacks and resulting yards lost (Sack/Lost) and the quarterback rating (Rating).

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2007

The Saints had a 1-4 record after five games that year and infamously started the season 0-4.

Date	Opponent	Att	Cmp	Yds	Cmp%	Yds/Att	TD	TD%	INT	INT%	LG	Sack/Lost	Rating
9/6	@ Indianapolis	41	28	192	68.3	4.68	0	0.0	2	4.9	23	1/5	58.2
9/16	@ Tampa Bay	44	26	260	59.1	5.91	1	2.3	1	2.3	58	2/16	74.1
9/24	Tennessee	45	29	225	64.4	5.00	0	0.0	4	8.9	37	1/7	39.6
10/7	Carolina	47	29	252	61.7	5.36	0	0.0	2	4.3	54	0/0	58.1
10/14	@ Seattle	36	25	246	69.4	6.83	2	5.6	0	0.0	36	0/0	106.9
TOTALS		213	137	1175	64.6	5.60	3	1.6	9	4.1	58	4/28	67.4

2007 was a very poor year for Brees, as the numbers easily bear out. The Saints quarterback had only three touchdown passes (1.6 TD%) against 9 interceptions (4.1 TD%) after five games. Even more frightening for Saints fans, Brees had an incredibly low 67.4 quarterback rating. Coming off a year where they went to the NFC Championship game in 2006, fears about Brees' stellar 2006 season being a fluke could have been legitimate after five games in 2007. As history would show, these fears were ill-conceived. Let's take a look at 2008.

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2008

In the same way they started the 2014 season, New Orleans had a 2-3 record after five games, on their way to an 8-8 record. Here are the numbers:

Date	Opponent	Att	Cmp	Yds	Cmp%	Yds/Att	TD	TD%	INT	INT%	LG	Sack/Lost	Rating
9/7	Tampa Bay	32	23	343	71.9	10.72	3	9.4	1	3.1	84t	1/6	124.9
9/14	@ Washington	33	22	216	66.7	6.55	1	3.0	2	6.1	22	2/21	69.8
9/21	@ Denver	48	39	421	81.3	8.77	1	2.1	0	0.0	74	1/7	110.2
9/28	San Francisco	35	23	363	65.7	10.37	3	8.6	1	2.9	81	0/0	116.7
10/6	Minnesota	46	26	330	56.5	7.17	1	2.2	2	4.3	52	1/10	68.2
TOTALS		194	133	1673	68.4	8.72	9	5.1	6	3.3	84	5/24	97.9

In 2008, Brees had an eerily similar start to 2014 (see chart below). The Saints quarterback had, as usual, an excellent completion percentage (68.4). A very good yards-per-attempt number (8.72) and a good quarterback rating (97.9). New Orleans showed a higher propensity to the big plays, with long touchdown passes through five games, the longest being 84 yards. These 2007 and 2008 numbers, if they were indicative of any decline by Brees, certainly didn't show up in 2009, when the Saints quarterback had an amazing season, leading the Saints to their first Super Bowl title while leading the league in QB rating.

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2012

In the third year in which the Saints had a less than .500 record after five games, New Orleans, like in 2007, had a 1-4 record.

Date	Opponent	Att	Cmp	Yds	Cmp%	Yds/Att	TD	TD%	INT	INT%	LG	Sack/Lost	Rating
9/9	Washington	52	24	339	46.2	6.52	3	5.8	2	3.8	33t	2/13	70.9
9/16	@ Carolina	49	31	325	63.3	6.63	1	2.0	2	4.1	29	1/2	72.2
9/23	Kansas City	36	20	240	55.6	6.67	3	8.3	1	2.8	36	4/35	92.4
9/30	@ Green Bay	54	35	446	64.8	8.26	3	5.6	0	0.0	80t	2/17	109.0
10/7	San Diego	45	29	370	64.4	8.22	4	8.9	1	2.2	41	3/19	110.4
TOTALS		236	139	1720	58.9	7.26	14	6.1	6	2.6	80	12/86	90.9

Without Sean Payton on the sidelines and a putrid defense, the Saints put everything on Brees' decaying arm, having him attempt 236 passes after five games (an insane 47.2 passes per game), and leading to a much lower completion percentage (58.9) with regards to Brees' passing standards. All the other numbers however, look pretty impressive, most notably the very low interception percentage (2.6 INT%) despite the very high amount of passing attempts. How about the year that you probably all really want to know about?

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2014

This is the year that has everyone wondering whether Brees is nearly done as an NFL quarterback. Larry Holder who covers the Saints for the Times Picayune even wrote this piece saying that the debate is now open on whether Brees is officially in decline. Well, aren't we all?

Date	Opponent	Att	Cmp	Yds	Cmp%	Yds/Att	TD	TD%	INT	INT%	LG	Sack/Lost	Rating
9/7	@ Atlanta	42	29	333	69.0	7.93	1	2.4	1	2.4	57	0/0	90.7
9/14	@ Cleveland	40	27	237	67.5	5.93	2	5.0	1	2.5	23	2/14	89.3
9/21	Minnesota	35	27	293	77.1	8.37	2	5.7	0	0.0	34t	1/5	120.3
9/28	@ Dallas	44	32	340	72.7	7.73	2	4.5	1	2.3	46	1/4	100.6
10/5	Tampa Bay	57	35	371	61.4	6.51	2	3.5	3	5.3	37	0/0	70.1
TOTALS		218	150	1574	69.5	7.30	9	4.2	6	2.5	57	4/23	94.2

The striking fact here, if we're talking about arm strength, is that of the longest touchdown passes for the Saints in each of the first five games, only one went over 50 yards, implying that Brees now possesses a noodle, right where he used to have a bicep. Of course, Brees also has an excellent completion rate (69.5) and a fairly low interception percentage (2.5) despite his three INTs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. His quarterback rating (94.2) is pretty good as well.

Compared to his "declining" year of 2007, Brees' total numbers in 2014 are better in pretty much every category as you can see below. If we're to believe the mass hysteria surrounding the Saints quarterback's so-called decline of 2014, Brees should probably have retired following the 2007 season.

2007

	Att	Cmp	Yds	Cmp%	Yds/Att	TD	TD%	INT	INT%	LG	Sack/Lost	Rating
TOTALS	213	137	1175	64.6	5.6	3	1.6	9	4.1	58	4/28	67.4

2014

	Att	Cmp	Yds	Cmp%	Yds/Att	TD	TD%	INT	INT%	LG	Sack/Lost	Rating
TOTALS	218	150	1574	69.5	7.30	9	4.2	6	2.5	57	4/23	94.2

Yes, Brees was 28 years old in 2007 and seven years later, Father Time may be eventually catching up with him. However, despite the fact that he nearly cost the Saints the game against Tampa Bay with three-ill-advised interceptions, Brees has yet to consistently show that he's on the express way down as an NFL quarterback.

His arm strength can't possibly be what it was seven years ago, but the Saints quarterback still is a great NFL quarterback, that simply has yet to play his best this year. With the bye week arriving after a win, New Orleans (2-3) can positively regroup, recharge and try to right the ship in two weeks at Detroit. Under Sean Payton, the Saints haven't lost following a bye week, which should give Saints fans a lot of hope for the upcoming game in the Motor City.

I have the sneaky suspicion that we haven't seen the last of a dominant Drew Brees at the helm for the Saints, not only in 2014, but at least for the next two to three years.