Are the 2014 Saints Too Old to Win it All?

The beginning of the 2014 National Football League season is right around the corner, as evidenced by training camps in full force for all 32 NFL teams across the country and the beginning of preseason games. This is the time when countless projections are made by fans and pundits alike, about of how each team will fare during the upcoming year. One of the most insightful, in-depth look at the imminent football season for each team is the annual Football Outsiders Almanac (which you can also find on Amazon). They dedicate a chapter to each NFL team, dissecting their strengths and weaknesses and project how their season is likely to end up. In the section devoted to the New Orleans Saints and written by Football Outsiders' Vince Verhei, one key point stuck with me: the Saints offense is old; moreover, it may be too old to carry the team to another Super Bowl win.

Let's examine Verhei's research and results, then discuss the conclusions he drew from them.

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1) The Saints are Old on Offense.

What is the best way to determine a team's overall age and somewhat accurately correlate it to the team's on-the-field production? In 2013, Danny Tuccitto introduced the Snap-Weighted Age (SWA) method, which to this date has proven to be the best way to make this measurement, as it takes in account the weekly snap count of every player, determines each player's contribution to the team's play and links that value to the player's age. For instance, a 40-year old player who took only 2 snaps on a given game day should count less towards the overall team's age than a 23-year old player who took 15 snaps on the same day. In other words, a team with a bunch of old players who barely play isn't really that old.

Using the SWA measurement, in 2013 the New Orleans Saints were the NFL's oldest team on offense (1^st, with an age of 28.4). They were also the 10^th oldest team on special teams and the 8^th oldest overall in the NFL.

Saints Snap-weighted Age in 2013

Overall	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	ST	Rank
27.1	8th	28.4	1st	26.1	25th	26.2	10th

ST = Special Teams.

1^st = Oldest. 32^nd = Youngest.

To predict the impact that being an older offense could have on the Saints in 2014 and beyond, Verhei looked at the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) of the 10 oldest offenses in the NFL since 2006. He observed these offenses over a four-year span, from the year they were the oldest offense in the league through the following three seasons. The results are interesting, and what they say doesn't exactly bode well for the 2014 New Orleans Saints.

Table 1: DVOA of the Oldest Offenses by Snap-Weighted Age (2006-2013)

Team	Year	Age (SWA)	DVOA	Year N+1	Year N+2	Year N+3
KC	2006	30.0	6.3%	-19.4%	-9.2%	-18.0%
CHI	2007	29.6	-22.1%	9.0%	-19.7%	-15.8%
WAS	2008	29.6	8.2%	-8.3%	-11.3%	-7.0%
WAS	2007	29.4	-1.0%	8.2%	-8.3%	-11.3%
NE	2009	29.4	26.4%	42.2%	31.9%	30.8%
KC	2007	29.3	-19.4%	-9.2%	-18.0%	-9.2%
SEA	2006	29.2	-11.2%	6.6%	-14.2%	-19.6%
CHI	2006	29.1	-5.0%	-22.1%	-9.0%	-19.7%
NYJ	2008	29.1	0.0%	-12.5%	2.1%	-8.3%
SEA	2007	29.0	6.6%	-14.2%	-19.6%	-17.3%
Average		29.4	-1.1%	-3.8%	-7.5%	-9.5%
Median		29.4	-0.5%	-9.1%	-10.3%	-13.6%

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The numbers shown in this table are offensive DVOA values, meaning that the higher (positive) the value, the better the offense (the average DVOA being 0/0%). The main observation that can be made from looking at the table is that from the year they were the oldest in the NFL (as was the case for the Saints in 2013), most of these teams offenses got progressively worse over the following three years, with some of them experiencing a catastrophic decline the very following year (the 2006 Chiefs and Bears, the 2008 Jets and the 2007 Seahawks).

The last two rows of Table 1, the average DVOA and the median values show the same trend. As if often the case, there is one big outlier, the New England Patriots, who from 2010 to 2012 were better offensively than they were in 2009.

"Can the Saints keep winning as their offense ages? Recent history says it will be a challenge." These are Vince Verhei's words, although he recognizes that there are some flaws with the above results. Here are the failings he sees:

a)      A Small sample size: studying only 10 teams since 2006 provides a fairly small pool to draw conclusions that accurately correlate the aging of a team's offense to its ability to win.

b)      How old were they really? Although the Saints offense was the oldest in 2013 with a 28.4 SWA, it would still be younger than all the teams listed in Table 1 and reportedly would not make the top 20 of the oldest teams in the past eight years.

c)      A bigger, yet troubled pool: by expanding the sample size to 25 (going back to 2000) aging offenses still showed a pattern of offensive decline. However, since the authors were able to calculate Snap-Weighted Age (SWA) only from 2006, these additional results aren't truly representative of the players that actually took the majority of snaps.

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2) What Do I Think?

There are two additional factors that I thought would be interesting to look at, in order to have perhaps a more complete picture:

2-1) In his study, Verhei didn't address the win-loss records of these 10 oldest NFL teams during the four-year span represented in Table 1. I decided to do so. After all, wins and losses are the most important numbers when it comes to football or any sports aren't they?

2-2) Table 1 considers offensive DVOA values, but does not take into account these teams' defenses. As we all know, a team can have a great offense (high offensive DVOA) and yet still lose games due to a porous defense, a la 2012 New Orleans Saints. Inversely, a declining offense can be helped or even carried by a good defensive unit.

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2-1. Did Old Offenses Win or Lose?

In addressing the first factor, I compiled the regular season records for the teams in Table 1, in the same four-year span.

Table 2: Record of the Oldest Offenses by Snap-Weighted Age (2006-2013)

Team	Year	Age (SWA)	Record	Year N+1	Year N+2	Year N+3
KC	2006	30.0	9-7	4-12	2-14	4-12
CHI	2007	29.6	7-9	9-7	7-9	11-5
WAS	2008	29.6	8-8	4-12	6-10	5-11
WAS	2007	29.4	5-11	8-8	4-12	6-10
NE	2009	29.4	10-6	14-2	13-3	12-4
KC	2007	29.3	4-12	2-14	4-12	10-6
SEA	2006	29.2	9-7	10-6	4-12	5-11
CHI	2006	29.1	13-3	7-9	9-7	7-9
NYJ	2008	29.1	9-7	9-7	11-5	8-8
SEA	2007	29.0	10-6	4-12	5-11	7-9
Average		29.4	8.4-7.6	7.1-8.9	6.5-9.5	7.5-8.5
Median		29.4	9.0-7.0	7.5-8.5	5.5-10.5	7.0-9.0

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When we look at Table 2, the regular season win-loss average and median show the same declining trend observed with the DVOA values, as the teams go from an average of 8.4 wins in year one to 7.5 wins in year four (with the biggest decline being in year three at 6.5 wins).

2-2. So How About the Defenses?

When looking at Table 2, there are a few interesting observations, that show that there will be a non-negligible number of exceptions to the observed trend of decline by teams with older offenses.

a)      The 2010 Chicago Bears had an offensive DVOA of -15.8%. (In 2013, that would have placed them at about 27^th in the entire NFL). Despite that fact, they went 11-5 led by an outstanding defense that carried them all the way to the NFC Championship. This highlights the impact that a defense would have on the total wins of a team, which isn't accounted for in Table 1.

b)      In 2013, the New Orleans Saints had a pretty young defense (25^th oldest based on SWA in the NFL). More importantly, they had a very good defense, which ranked 10^th in the NFL with a -5.8% defensive DVOA (with positive numbers representing more scoring, the more negative the defensive DVOA, the better the defense).  This is a very important factor, which Verhei's lightly brushes over. Although it is undeniable that the Saints will always be a primarily offense-driven team, the defense installed by Rob Ryan in 2013 is here to stay and could get even better in 2014. If that is the case, it isn't unreasonable to think that the Saints offense could actually afford a slight regression, yet not cost the team in terms of wins and losses.

c)      Table 1 does not tell us how much younger these teams got from year two to four. A complete youth movement could've precipitated a rebuilding phase and thus caused a steeper drop in the offensive DVOA. Interestingly, a status quo by any of these teams could have had the same negative effect, with the team aging further hastening the offensive decline.

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3) Did you say Youth Movement?

A good balance of veteran leadership and energetic youth is usually a sure recipe for success in the National Football League. In 2014, the New Orleans Saints offense could have just such a mix and even a slightly younger offense in terms of Snap-Weighted Age. In the offseason, the Saints parted ways with veteran running back Darren Sproles (31) who was on the field for 357 plays of the 1,127 total snaps the team took in 2013 (31.7%). Another free agency departure was wide receiver Lance Moore (30), who took 441 snaps last year (39.1%). These two players are likely to be replaced by players like rookie wide receiver Brandin Cooks who is only 20 years old and second-year wideout Kenny Stills (22). Those two figure prominently in the Saints offensive plans in 2014 and should bring down the Saints offensive SWA.

At age 29, eighth-year running back Pierre Thomas who saw 564 snaps (50%) of the Saints total plays last year is likely to be relegated to third-down and screen-play back in 2014, while a younger player like running back Khiry Robinson (24), who played only 73 snaps (6.5%) in 2013 is likely to see his workload increase substantially.

Maybe the most significant Saints offseason change as far as age is concerned is the departure of center Brian de la Puente (29) to the Chicago Bears. De la Puente took 100% of the team's 1,127 snaps last year. If things go according to the Saints offseason plans, his replacement will be offensive guard Tim Lelito who is 25. Lelito is battling 36-year old Jonathan Goodwin for the starting center position but most signs point to the Saints giving Lelito every opportunity to win the job while having Goodwin as an experienced backup. Should Lelito stay healthy and play every offensive snap in 2014, the SWA of the Saints offense this upcoming year should be meaningfully lower than it was in 2013.

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4) So You're Saying There's A Chance?

Vince Verhei says so in his piece on the Saints in the 2014 Football Outsiders Almanac. Mostly basing his argument on their aging offense, he sees New Orleans' window of opportunity for a second Super Bowl win as basically being reduced to 2014. In his own words, "if everything falls into place, there's still time for one more parade down Canal Street before the good times end."

Although I agree with Verhei about the Saints having a very good chance to win it all in 2014, I think that their opportunity to lift another Lombardi extends a bit further than he estimates. Since 2006, New Orleans' front office has shown the ability to retool without ever really rebuilding. With Drew Brees claiming that he could play until the age of 45 (that's with the hope that his oblique muscles hold until then) the Saints should have a healthy three to four years as an elite NFL franchise, years in which they'll have a real shot to win that elusive second Super Bowl title. Their first crack at it starts in a little more than a month, on September 7^th in Atlanta.