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According to Over the Cap's best calculations, the New Orleans Saints were slotted to gain a compensatory pick this year: the last pick in the Draft, granting them the decision for Mr. Irrelevant 2015. However, the experts at OtC seem to have completely overlooked the Carolina Panthers, who received picks in the 5th and 6th rounds after not being mentioned at all in the initial calculations.
When the 2015 compensatory picks were announced yesterday evening, the Green Bay Packers (CJ Wilson) and San Francisco 49ers (Colt McCoy) had also managed to grab picks ahead of New Orleans, whose lowest-paid qualifying Unrestricted Free Agent in 2014 was Charles Brown. Each of these three players received salaries of $795,000 from their new teams this year. But even though Brown played more snaps than the other two, their respective former teams were awarded picks ahead of New Orleans.
There is no way for us to predict exactly where each of the 32 compensatory picks will go in a given year, since the NFL has not released the entirely of its secret formula, which is said to take into account each qualifying player's salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. Of course, if the Commisioner's discretion is a factor of immeasurable weight in the secret formula, any predictions relying solely on mathematics can only be so accurate.
New Orleans was not the only team who received fewer picks than OtC initially projected. However, the Saints were the only team to be completely removed from the compensatory pick field altogether. It's not surprising, given that Tom Benson's franchise was projected to be barely on the cusp of the compensatory pool. However, it also seems that the Saints continue to be unlikely to catch a break under Commisioner Goodell's regime.
| Team | Projected | Awarded |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3rd | 3rd, 4th |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4th | 4th, 7th |
| Carolina Panthers | none | 5th, 6th |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th | 4th, 5th, 5th |
| Houston Texans | 5th, 6th, 6th, 6th | 5th, 6th, 6th |
| Green Bay Packers | 6th, 6th, 7th | 6th, 6th |
| New Orleans Saints | 7th | none |
The NFL could easily silence the conspiracy theorists by releasing the details of the secret formula by which they determine which teams will be awarded compensatory picks. After all, what is the point of secrecy in such a matter, if subjective discretion doesn't enter into the equation?
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