Rear Window: Payton-era 1st Round Draft Picks vs. NFL Mock Drafts

NFL mock drafts seldom translate to reality come draft day. Here we go retrospective and take a look at the Saints Payton-era 1st round draft picks compared with various mock drafts from 2006 - 2014.

By quickdrawdoc@quickdrawdoc Apr 19, 2015, 11:00am CDT

In reading up on and analyzing the litany of mock drafts over the past several months, I've tried not to take too much of what's written at face value. Not to discredit draft mockers, because (most of the time) their analyses and therefore selections are pretty much solely informed by the often obvious needs of the 32 teams and the perceived quality of the incoming college players.

It can be thankless work given the outcomes on draft day, but I feel we've reached a collective, implied agreement that this is part and parcel with the torturous lull between the Super Bowl and the regular season.

I recall having done my due diligence in 2013, expecting us to take Barkevious Mingo (who, to be fair, would ultimately be taken 9 picks sooner than I figured), only for us to get Kenny Vaccaro. Then, in 2014, the trade-up and subsequent Brandin Cooks pick at #20 was a definite surprise to many.

Between gross under/overvaluations, inability to predict numerous trades, uncertainty in each team's post-FA big boards, and impressions of players from their Combine and Pro Days, the vetting and selection process can be brutal and is, by it's very nature, clandestine.

With 11 days, 22 hours, 32 minutes and 18...17...16... seconds left until the 2015 NFL Draft, and in keeping with the maddening Mock Draft high jinks with which we have all grown at once accustomed and weary, I decided to have a look at the Saints mock draft selections of years yore and compare them with our actual picks - For posterity's sake.

I pulled some relevant information for each year, but I'll reserve valuations for the community. My only take away is to remind fans to temper their expectations. There are an absurd number of realistic combinations in which the Saints can use their #13 and #31 picks this year, of which likely few people will have made accurate predictions. But that's part of the fun, so just keep doing mock drafts because they're awesome and all that jazz.

Here were my methods/comments for/on the process:

Searched "NFL mock draft" using Google advanced search with a specified time range of the 3 months leading up to the eve of the draft – So no actual draft day results were pulled
Picked three sites for each year, not using mocks from the same site more than once for a year
Props to sites like SBN, Bleacher Report, and Walter Football who’ve maintained indices of all their NFL mock drafts going back to whenever they started – Some other sites either haven’t been doing mocks as long, or they take their mocks down after the fact. I sorta suspect it’s the latter.
Results are presented from most recent to Sean Payton's first year as HC in 2006.

Let's start.

2014 – May 8

Saints selected: #20 Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State (trade up with Arizona)

Notable players selected before: #12 OBJ, #13 Aaron Donald, #16 Zack Martin, #17 C.J. Mosley

Notable players selected after: #21 Haha Clinton-Dix, #27 Kelvin Benjamin, #32 Teddy Bridgewater

NFL.com - Mock Draft 5.0: Jadeveon Clowney, AJ McCarron to Texans

Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

Bleacher Report - 2014 NFL Mock Draft: Matt Miller’s Final 7-Round Picks

Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State (picked #53, Green Bay)

SI.com - The MMQB Mock Draft: Who Teams Will Select

Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State (picked #15, Pittsburgh)

2013 – April 25

Saints selected: #15 Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

Notable players selected before: #13 Sheldon Richardson

Notable players selected after: #18 Eric Reid, #20 Kyle Long, #31 Travis Frederick

NFL.com - 2013 NFL Draft: Seven-round mock forecasts every pick, 1 to 254

Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia (picked #17, Pittsburgh)

Bleacher Report - 2013 NFL Mock Draft: Matt Miller's Final 7-Round Predictions

Jarvis Jones

Pro Football Talk – PFT Final 2013 Mock Draft

Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State (picked #25, Minnesota)

2012 – April 26

Saints did not have a 1st - Traded 2012 1st and 2011 #56 to NE to select Mark Ingram

Notable players in 2012: #1 Andrew Luck, #4 Matt Kalil, #9 Luke Keuchly, #11 Dontari Poe, #15 Bruce Irvin

2011 – April 28

Saints selected: #24: Cam Jordan, DE, Cal

Saints selected: #28: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

Notable players selected before: #1 Cam Newton, #2 Von Miller, #3 Marcell Dareus, #4 A.J. Green, #5 Patrick Peterson, #6 Julio Jones, #7 Aldon Smith, #11 J.J. Watt, #14 Robert Quinn, #16 Ryan Kerrigan

Notable players selected after: #30 Muhammad Wilkerson

Bleacher Report - 2011 NFL Mock Draft: Full 7-Round Mock for Every Team