2017 New Orleans Saints Keys to Success: Pound the rock and fix the defense

Currently, the number one overall need for the New Orleans Saints has remained the same for the past several seasons: Improving the defense. It appears the team has made that their focus. In the 2015 and 2016 NFL Drafts, the Saints had 14 picks, nine of which were used on defense. They also brought in eight defensive free agents during that time, and so far, it appears they are continuing that trend in 2017. The team was able to retain defensive tackle Nick Fairley and bring in linebacker A.J. Klein from the Panthers. The Saints also traded receiver Brandin Cooks to the Patriots for the 32nd overall pick, and moved up from 118th overall (4th round) to 103rd overall (3rd round).

The general consensus around the 11th overall pick is that the Saints will draft the top defensive end on the board. In a recent interview with John DeShazier, head coach Sean Payton gave us a good idea of what they plan to do with the additional first-rounder received in the Cooks trade. Coach Payton stated "certainly when a team calls, a team that’s looking for a receiver and we’re looking to improve our defense we’re always listening." Weighing these comments and seeing the way free agency is shaping up so far, it seems the Saints are continuing their quest to improve the defense.

Getting better on the defensive side of the ball is key if the Saints want to have a successful season, but there are some other things they should look at doing if they want to win. Looking at the team stats and doing a little bit of analysis makes it pretty clear what changes need to be made. As history shows us, the Saints most successful seasons under Sean Payton and Drew Brees have boasted some of their highest rushing attempts. When Brees keeps his passing attempts in check and they are able to control the game by handing the ball off, they win games. The offense has been elite since 2006, and because of that the team has never needed a top ranked defense to win. In fact, ranking anywhere in the ball park of 15th-22nd would bring success given the way this offense operates.

Let's use history as a guide and look at the teams offensive stats compared to their win/loss records. Over the past 11 years, the Saints have not had a losing season when Brees made less than 600 passing attempts or when the team had over 430 rushing attempts. (Refer to the chart below)

Brandin Cooks was part of the New Orleans Saints roster from 2014-2016, which were three of the five worst seasons since the arrival of Sean Payton and Drew Brees. It is not Cooks' fault the team went 7-9 each season, but I am going to stick to a statement I've made several times. Cooks is a great receiver, and this is no way an attempt to degrade him, but the Saints offense was elite before he arrived and will continue to be elite after he is gone.

Now, to breakdown the numbers a bit more, I want to go into the rushing and passing stats for the 2016 season. Listed below are two charts which include the teams stats for both categories and the outcome of the game.

2016 RUSHING STATS

In games where the Saints had 30 or more carries they were undefeated. Those games were vs. Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Rams, Cardinals and Bucs.

2016 PASSING STATS

In games where Brees had 40 or more passing attempts the team had a losing record (2-8) and in games with less than 40 passing attempts they had a winning record (5-1).

The Saints have had five winning seasons since 2006. In each of those seasons, the team had a minimum of 400 rushing attempts with the exception of two and in both of those seasons they had the luxury of a top ranked defense. In 2016, the defense did show improvement versus 2015 and, with another defensive draft and offseason under Dennis Allen, the Saints should be able to continue that improvement. Still, they would be lucky to be ranked any higher than an average unit at best. We already have the blueprint to win with an average defense and if Sean Payton wants to taste the postseason again. This is the year he needs to return to his winning ways, and that means commit to the ground game.