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How long can the New Orleans Saints offense sustain success?

Under Sean Payton, the Saints have been one of the league’s best offenses. Is it even possible to see it dropping off suddenly?

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Since 2006, the New Orleans Saints offense has been one of the biggest powerhouses in the NFL. Year after year, the Drew Brees-led offense has found themselves consistently ranked in the league’s Top 10. Their worst finish came in 2010, ranking sixth in total offense per game with 372.5 yards. Of course, as good as the Saints have been offensively, especially over the past half of the Payton era, the defense has been a major letdown.

The offense isn’t given a pass for having a hand in the team’s three straight 7-9 seasons, as it has crashed and burned in several games when the defense did their part. Over the past three losing seasons, we’re often left wondering about the countless ‘if only’ Saints scenarios. Still, it’s a new season and fresh start for all 32 teams, and Sean Payton’s squad is no different.

You can point out areas in which the Saints offense has been hindered. For instance, last year saw the team field their lowest kickoff return average (16.5) and yardage (462). Now, some of that can naturally be attributed to the league’s touchback rule change, but the Saints were ranked 31st in the league in both of those categories. Other special teams units, like the Bengals and Rams, both had over 1,000 kickoff return yards. You also can’t leave out the fact that the Saints had just 28 returns in 2016, which factors in to the bottom third of the league.

Another example would include 2014 and the inability to get off to good starts, managing just 55 1st Quarter points, a team low in the Payton era. It goes without saying, that season itself was a pretty big train wreck. You could also look at 2015 when Brees was under constant pressure, mainly from an underachieving Zach Strief at right tackle, leading to the second-highest sack total on Brees (32) in a Saints uniform. These are just some of the many breakdowns the offense has sustained, as I’m certain more come to mind.

Here’s a detailed look at the offensive performance in the six losing seasons for the Saints.

Saints Offense - Losing Seasons

Season 2007 2008 2012 2014 2015 2016
Season 2007 2008 2012 2014 2015 2016
Points 379 463 461 401 408 469
1st Qtr 89 67 101 55 121 89
2nd Qtr 130 154 154 116 97 135
3rd Qtr 94 115 110 76 81 88
4th Qtr 66 127 93 148 103 157
Rushing TDs 14 20 10 16 16 17
Passing TDs 28 34 43 33 32 38
First Downs 346 354 352 395 381 395
Rushing 94 103 64 101 98 105
Passing 232 232 267 258 247 265
Penalty 20 19 21 36 36 25
3rd Down 99-214 97-200 91-207 98-203 104-218 107-220
3rd Down Pct 46.26% 48.50% 43.96% 48.28% 47.71% 48.64%
4th Down 11-25 10-18 8-14 8-15 10-16 13-15
4th Down Pct 44.00% 55.56% 57.14% 53.33% 62.50% 86.67%
Red Zone 36-50 38-62 39-57 39-65 35-58 45-68
Red Zone Pct 72.00% 61.29% 68.42% 60.00% 60.34% 66.18%
Goal to Go 29-35 24-32 23-32 28-33 23-28 33-41
Goal to Go Pct 82.86% 75.00% 71.88% 84.85% 82.14% 80.49%
Total Net Yards 5780 6571 6574 6582 6461 6816
Total Off. Plays 1060 1047 1067 1095 1096 1105
Avg. Gain Per Play 5.5 6.3 6.2 6 5.9 6.2
Net Yards Rushing 1466 1594 1577 1818 1491 1742
Total Rushing Plays 392 398 370 406 397 404
Avg. Gain Per Rush 3.7 4 4.3 4.5 3.8 4.3
Net Yards Passing 4314 4977 4997 4764 4970 5074
Times Sacked 16 13 26 30 32 27
Gross Yards Passing 4423 5069 5187 4952 5205 5258
Pass Attempts 652 636 671 659 667 674
Pass Completions 440 413 423 456 460 472
Completion Pct 67.48% 64.94% 63.04% 69.20% 68.97% 70.03%
Avg. Gain Per Pass 6.5 7.7 7.2 6.9 7.1 7.2
Interceptions 18 18 19 17 12 15
Fumbles / Fum. Lost 25-12 18-8 13-5 22-13 17-8 17-9
Punts 63 53 74 58 67 57
Kickoff Returns 71 62 51 21 28 28
Kickoff Return Yards 1513 1496 1266 543 605 462
Kickoff Return Avg. 21.3 24.1 24.8 25.9 21.6 16.5
Time of Possession 31:09:00 30:23:00 28:36:00 30:03:00 31:11:00 30:57:00
Saints Offensive Performance - Losing Seasons John Hendrix

On the flip side, you can see what the offense has been like when the Saints boasted winning records.

Saints Offense - Winning Seasons

Season 2006 2009 2010 2011 2013
Season 2006 2009 2010 2011 2013
Points 413 510 384 547 414
1st Qtr 82 85 112 99 86
2nd Qtr 136 176 93 166 155
3rd Qtr 82 107 74 126 70
4th Qtr 113 139 105 153 103
Rushing TDs 19 21 9 16 10
Passing TDs 27 34 33 46 39
First Downs 330 348 351 416 359
Rushing 99 115 94 116 87
Passing 207 215 236 280 244
Penalty 24 18 21 20 28
3rd Down Conv (M/A) 105-234 88-197 106-217 118-208 97-221
3rd Down Conv Pct 44.87% 44.67% 48.85% 56.73% 43.89%
4th Down Conv (M/A) 12-20 6-15 5-11 3-10 9-19
4th Down Conv Pct 60.00% 40.00% 45.45% 30.00% 47.37%
Red Zone Conv (M/A) 29-53 41-71 31-61 44-75 32-57
Red Zone Conv Pct 54.72% 57.75% 50.82% 58.67% 56.14%
Goal to Go Conv (M/A) 21-35 24-36 22-28 29-37 23-31
Goal to Go Conv Pct 60.00% 66.67% 78.57% 78.38% 74.19%
Total Net Yards 6264 6461 5960 7474 6391
Total Off. Plays 1075 1032 1067 1117 1079
Avg. Gain Per Play 5.8 6.3 5.6 6.7 5.9
Net Yards Rushing 1761 2106 1519 2127 1473
Total Rushing Plays 472 468 380 431 391
Avg. Gain Per Rush 3.7 4.5 4 4.9 3.8
Net Yards Passing 4503 4355 4441 5347 4918
Times Sacked 23 20 26 24 37
Gross Yards Passing 4626 4490 4636 5505 5162
Pass Attempts 580 544 661 662 651
Pass Completions 372 378 450 472 446
Completion Pct 64.14% 69.49% 68.08% 71.30% 68.51%
Avg. Gain Per Pass 7.5 7.7 6.5 7.8 7.1
Interceptions 13 12 22 14 12
Fumbles / Fum. Lost 23-10 25-16 23-9 6-5 12-7
Penalties 79 89 90 99 95
PenaltyYards 597 787 884 851 817
Punts 77 58 57 47 61
Kickoff Returns 60 57 52 42 22
Kickoff Return Yards 1377 1393 1181 1111 506
Kickoff Return Avg. 23 24.4 22.7 26.5 23
Time of Possession 31:53:00 31:10:00 31:39:00 31:46:00 32:41:00
Saints Offense - Winning Seasons John Hendrix

It’s not an exact science in the NFL that doing ‘x’ as opposed to doing ‘y’ more yields wins in today’s game. Case in point, the Saints ran the ball the most in 2006 (472 attempts). Their average yards per rush just came in at 3.7 en route to 1,761 rushing yards. On the flip side, the highest rushing performances in Payton’s tenure in 2009 and 2011 came to the tune of over 2,000 yards in each season. They averaged 4.5 (2009) and 4.9 (2011) yards per carry, but also replicated that in 2014 (4.5), which also ended up being their third-highest rushing effort (1,818 yards) since 2006.

Since recent happenings are a good litmus test, here’s a look at the Saints offensive performance in the just the past five seasons.

Saints Offense - Last 5 Years

Season 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Season 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Points 461 414 401 408 469
1st Qtr 101 86 55 121 89
2nd Qtr 154 155 116 97 135
3rd Qtr 110 70 76 81 88
4th Qtr 93 103 148 103 157
Rushing TDs 10 10 16 16 17
Passing TDs 43 39 33 32 38
First Downs 352 359 395 381 395
By Rushing 64 87 101 98 105
By Passing 267 244 258 247 265
By Penalty 21 28 36 36 25
3rd Down 91-207 97-221 98-203 104-218 107-220
3rd Down Pct 43.96% 43.89% 48.28% 47.71% 48.64%
4th Down 8-14 9-19 8-15 10-16 13-15
4th Down Pct 57.14% 47.37% 53.33% 62.50% 86.67%
Red Zone Conv 39-57 32-57 39-65 35-58 45-68
Red Zone Conv Pct 68.42% 56.14% 60.00% 60.34% 66.18%
Goal to Go 23-32 23-31 28-33 23-28 33-41
Goal to Go Pct 71.88% 74.19% 84.85% 82.14% 80.49%
Total Net Yards 6574 6391 6582 6461 6816
Total Off. Plays 1067 1079 1095 1096 1105
Avg. Gain Per Play 6.2 5.9 6 5.9 6.2
Net Yards Rushing 1577 1473 1818 1491 1742
Total Rushing Plays 370 391 406 397 404
Avg. Gain Per Rush 4.3 3.8 4.5 3.8 4.3
Net Yards Passing 4997 4918 4764 4970 5074
Times Sacked 26 37 30 32 27
Gross Yards Passing 5187 5162 4952 5205 5258
Pass Attempts 671 651 659 667 674
Pass Completions 423 446 456 460 472
Completion Pct 63.04% 68.51% 69.20% 68.97% 70.03%
Avg. Gain Per Pass 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.2
Interceptions 19 12 17 12 15
Fumbles / Fum. Lost 13-5 12-7 22-13 17-8 17-9
Punts 74 61 58 67 57
Kickoff Returns 51 22 21 28 28
Kickoff Return Yards 1266 506 543 605 462
Kickoff Return Avg. 24.8 23 25.9 21.6 16.5
Time of Possession 28:36:00 32:41:00 30:03:00 31:11:00 30:57:00
Saints Offense - Last 5 Seasons John Hendrix

For the past few years, we’ve seen a growing narrative of wannabe fortune tellers predicting the demise and downfall of Drew Brees. Arguably, he’s been the most important piece to the team’s offensive successes and failures. Just look at the track history of receiving leaders for the Saints since 2006. Never in a million years would anyone project a 33-year-old David Patten would have the type of production he did in 2007, and a lot of that is thanks to Brees.

Saints Receiving Trios Under Payton

Year Top Trio Catches Yards TDs Individual Stats (Rec-Yards-TDs)
Year Top Trio Catches Yards TDs Individual Stats (Rec-Yards-TDs)
2006 Colston-Henderson-Bush 190 2,525 15 Colston (70-1038-8), Henderson (32-745-5), Bush (88-742-2)
2007 Colston-Patten-Bush 225 2,411 16 Colston (98-1202-11), Patten (54-792-3), Bush (73-417-2)
2008 Moore-Henderson-Colston 158 2,481 18 Moore (79-928-10), Henderson (32-793-3), Colston (47-760-5)
2009 Colston-Henderson-Meachem 166 2,600 20 Colston (70-1074-9), Henderson (51-804-2), Meachem (45-722-9)
2010 Colston-Moore-Meachem 194 2,444 20 Colston (84-1023-7), Moore (66-783-8), Meachem (44-638-5)
2011 Graham-Colston-Sproles 265 3,163 26 Graham (99-1310-11), Colston (80-1143-8), Sproles (86-710-7)
2012 Colston-Moore-Graham 233 3,177 25 Colston (83-1154-10), Moore (65-1041-6), Graham (85-982-9)
2013 Graham-Colston-Stills 193 2,799 26 Graham (86-1215-16), Colston (75-943-5), Stills (32-641-5)
2014 Stills-Colston-Graham 207 2,722 18 Stills (63-931-3), Colston (59-902-5), Graham (85-889-10)
2015 Cooks-Snead-Watson 227 2,947 18 Cooks (84-1138-9), Snead (69-984-3), Watson (74-825-6)
2016 Cooks-Thomas-Snead 242 3,205 21 Cooks (78-1173-8), Thomas (92-1137-9), Snead (72-895-4)
Saints Receiving Trio Leaders by Season John Hendrix

The Patten example from what feels like an eternity ago is one thing. However, no matter who Brees has been paired up with as receiving threats, the Saints offense has always found a way. And that’s general theme for Sean Payton’s bunch, finding a way. This year, the team has once again made what many would regard as drastic changes to the offense. No longer will Brandin Cooks be the team’s top receiving threat, and a promising three-headed Hydra is in the works with Mark Ingram , Adrian Peterson, and Alvin Kamara - something reminiscent to a past team. Offensive guard Larry Warford looks to pick up right where Jahri Evans left off, and then some.

Then there’s things we bank on. For starters, Coby Fleener has a New Orleans season under his belt, which in turn should give the Saints a better threat from the tight end spot. We also look at progression from someone like Andrus Peat, who should now be etched in as the team’s starting left guard after bouncing around the offensive line. Of course, health is a general area that could help the Saints in 2017, as Terron Armstead looks to be fully recovered after toughing it out last season. As of now, the biggest question mark is around center Max Unger and his availability. It’s only May, so we have time to let that play out.

Needless to say, the Saints offense - no matter who ends up calling the plays - should keep on churning in the brand new season. There’s only reason for optimism, and looking across the roster certainly generates a sense of security. The Saints have faced off against some of the best and worst defenses in the past, and have generally made the most of it.

The largest hope for the 2017 Saints is that they finally get the improved defense they’ve long been searching for. One of the reasons the 2009 Super Bowl team was so special was because of the turnovers they generated, which in turn gave Brees the ball back. 2011’s offense had all the pieces working for them at the highest level, and also had a defense that could support them.

As long as Drew Brees and Sean Payton continue to be the masterminds of the New Orleans offense, there’s little to no doubt they’ll keep up the stellar production.

Team Bests, Trends, Tidbits

  • Most points: 547 (2011)
  • Most 1st Quarter points: 121 (2015)
  • Most 2nd Quarter points: 176 (2009)
  • Most 3rd Quarter points: 126 (2011)
  • Most 4th Quarter points: 157 (2016)
  • Most Rushing TDs: 21 (2009)
  • Most Passing TDs: 46 (2011)
  • Most First Downs: 416 (2011)
  • Best 3rd Down Percentage: 118-of-208, 56.73% (2011)
  • Best Red Zone Conversion: 36-of-50, 72% (2007)
  • Most Net Yards: 7,474 (2011)
  • Most Net Yards Rushing: 2,127 (2011)
  • Most Yards Passing: 5,505 (2011)
  • In winning and playoff seasons since 2006, the Saints have had an average time of possession of over 31 minutes. Their average conversion rate on 3rd Down was 47.5 percent, and 47.2 percent in losing seasons. In the past five seasons, they’ve turned in an average conversion percentage of 46.5.
  • The offense has generated an average of 430 points per season in their six seasons not making the playoffs, and averaged 454 points in their five winning seasons.
  • Since 2012, the Saints have had done the most scoring in the 2nd Quarter. Some 657 points scored over the past five seasons, which averages out to 131 points per year.