Super Bowl Odds: Saints Atop the NFC

It is incredible isn’t it?

After a narrow 48-46 defeat to the San Francisco 49ers, many among Saints’ fans lamented the loss and a putrid defensive performance, wondering whether New Orleans was a championship-worthy outfit. On the other hand, some proclaimed that the Saints had actually showed them something by scoring 46 points on what was one of the best defenses in the National football League.

The Saints followed that 46 points outburst with an effortless 34-point outing against the Indianapolis Colts, with a sudden offensive revival we had not seen all year, while the defense also produced one of its best defensive games of the season, limiting the Colts to a season low 205 total yards of offense.

It seems as though the oddsmakers have noticed, as Vegas and other outlets have the Saints second in the NFL in odds to win the Super Bowl on February 2, 2020 in Miami. However, to win the Super Bowl, New Orleans first needs to get there.

Record-wise, New Orleans is in a four-way tie in the NFC with the Seahawks, Packers and 49ers at 11-3. With two games left in the regular season, the Saints have the NFC’s easiest schedule by opponents’ record among those four teams (13-15). The Packers have the second-easiest strength of schedule (13-14-1). The 49ers have the hardest path, with their remaining opponents having a combined 19-9 record, while the Seahawks have the second hardest path with a remaining opponents record of 14-12-1.

The oddsmaker clearly believe that the Saints will finish the regular season with either the number one or the number two seed in the NFC, which would ensure that they would need to win only two games - potentially two home games - to get to Miami.

Let’s get to the odds:

FIVE THIRTY EIGHT

According to fivethirtyeight.com, the Saints are second in the NFL with 16% odds to win Super Bowl LIV. New Orleans is behind the overwhelming favorites Baltimore Ravens (38%). Rounding out the top five are the Kansas City Chiefs (9%), the New England Patriots (9%) and the San Francisco 49ers (8%).

The link is fun, because you can simulate the two remaining games for every team and see how the odds change based on the results you choose.

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ODDSHARK

These odds are for the degenerate gamblers section of us (you know who you are). Reporting the numbers from Bovada, oddshark.com has the Saints tied for the second-best odds to win Super Bowl LIV at +600. In other words, one would win $600 when betting $100 on the Saints to win.

New Orleans is tied with New England at +600, while the Baltimore Ravens have the best odds at +225. Again, this means that you’d win $225 if you bet $100 on the Ravens to win it all. The longer the odds of the team you bet on, the higher the payout when they win. Rounding out the top five are the San Francisco 49ers (+650) and the Kansas City Chiefs (+700).

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS

This is the total football nerds section. Football Outsiders nicely explains the formula it uses to set the odds, which adds a bit of clarity as to why they have teams ranked where they are. Another great thing is that on top of odds to win the Super Bowl, they also give odds to reach the conference championship game, to win the championship game, and even the odds of having specific Super Bowl matchups.

FO has the Saints with the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl at 21.1%, behind the inevitable Baltimore Ravens (36.5%). Following New Orleans are the New England Patriots (10%), the San Francisco 49ers (9.5%) and the Seattle Seahawks (6.9%).

They see the most likely Super Bowl matchup as a Ravens-Saints contest, with a 25% chance of occurrence. In second would be a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII between the Ravens and the 49ers (12%), while the Seahawks and the Ravens matchup is third at 10.4%.

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There you have it, with two games to go in the regular season, most oddsmaker believe that your New Orleans Saints have the best odds to get out of the NFC and represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Let’s all do our prayers, shamanic dances, voodoo rituals and other superstitious things that football-loving humans do to make sure that it happens!