After roaring back down double-digits to the Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints fans and the organization aren’t the only ones feeling confident about Drew Brees and his weapons. The Saints are big favorites over the Los Angeles Chargers this week, giving up 7.5 to 8 points according to Sports Betting Dime. That’s the first time this season New Orleans has been favored by more than a touchdown and historically, that’s great news for Saints fans.
Here is a snapshot of all the odds you need to know:
- Straight-Up: LA Chargers (+290); New Orleans (-345)
- Against the Spread: LA Chargers (+7.5); New Orleans (-7.5)
- Over/Under: o51.5 (-110), u51.5 (-110)
When seven-plus point favorites
As always, we’ll look at each of these spread histories starting from Drew Brees and Sean Payton’s arrival in 2006. This will be the 66th time New Orleans has been favored by a touchdown or more. In the previous 65, they are 46-19. That’s a 70.8% win percentage. Against the spread in those games though, they are 31-34. So it could go either way when it comes to covering. The over was hit at just about the same rate: 30-35.
Monday Night Football
We watched the Saints drop a Monday Night Football game just two weeks ago against the Las Vegas Raiders. Ahead of that game we talked about the Saints’ track record with Drew Brees when favored on the road in Monday’s primetime slot. Unfortunately, they would go on to drop their first of five such games in Las Vegas.
Ideally they’ve left that luck in Vegas. The Saints have played the most Monday night games as favorites since 2006 in the NFL with 16. They are the winningest team under such conditions with 11 victories. However, with a 68.8% win percentage, they fall lower on the list than you might expect at ninth with three teams tied at the top with 100%. Regardless, this will be the Saints’ 17th such game and their 11-5 record straight up should bear some confidence. They are however, 9-7 ATS here. So the uncertainty in covering continues.
Brees vs. Chargers
In their entire history, the Saints trail in the series vs. the Chargers five wins to seven losses. However, since Brees came to New Orleans from the then San Diego Chargers, he has not lost when facing his old team going 3-0. In each of those three games, the Saints won, covered, and the team has hit the over. That includes the 2012 matchup where together the teams topped a 52.5 point O/U mark, a point more than this year’s matchup drew.
Drew Brees vs. his old team looks like a pretty safe bet. Especially considering his success on Monday Night Football being the league leader in completions, yardage, and touchdowns since he made it to the Big Easy.
Here are some fun player props provided by Sports Betting Dime as well. Looks like Brees is garnering some more confidence in his arm with a one yard increase in both longest air yardage and completion. I’d definitely take the over on 1.5 Saints DPIs for a fun bet between friends.
Brees Passing Yards: 272.5 yards
Brees Longest Completion: 39.5 yards
Brees Longest Air Yardage: 19.5 yards
Total Brees Passing Completions: 24.0
Total Brees Passing TDs: 2.0
Kamara Rushing Yards: 63.5
Kamara Yards from Scrimmage: 116.5
Saints Sacks: 2.5
Saints DPIs: 1.5
Chargers Turnovers: 1.5
ODDS TO SCORE THE FIRST TD OF THE GAME
Alvin Kamara: 4/1
Keenan Allen: 5/1
Latavius Murray: 7/1
Hunter Henry: 7/1
Emmanuel Sanders: 10/1
Joshua Kelly: 11/1
ODDS TO HAVE THE MOST RUSHING YARDS
Alvin Kamara: 2/3
Joshua Kelly: 4/1
Latavius Murray: 5/1
ODDS TO HAVE THE MOST RECEIVING YARDS
Keenan Allen: 7/2
Emmanuel Sanders: 9/2
Alvin Kamara: 5/1
Tre’Quan Smith: 6/1
Hunter Henry: 7/1
Michael Thomas: 10/1
What are your predictions for this Week 5 matchup? Let us know in the comments. Make sure you follow Canal Street Chronicles on Twitter at @SaintsCSC, “Like” us on Facebook at Canal Street Chronicles, and make sure you’re subscribed to our new YouTube channel. As always, you can follow me on Twitter @RossJacksonNOLA and subscribe to my daily Saints podcast, Locked On Saints.