Saints favored by 7+ points for second consecutive week

As the Saints prepare to host the Carolina Panthers at home in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, they earn the heavy favor of Vegas. New Orleans will enter the weekend as 7.5-point favorites according to Sports Betting Dime.

• Straight-Up: Carolina (+280); New Orleans (-335)
• Against the Spread: Carolina (+7.5); New Orleans (-7.5)
• Over/Under: o51 (-110), u51 (-110)

The Saints (3-2) may be playing without their star wideout Michael Thomas for the fifth game in a row after he suffered a hamstring injury during Wednesday’s practice. Without Thomas this season, New Orleans has still maintained an ability to score and move the ball. While it’s not always pretty on offense, they are still one of six teams around the league scoring more than 30 points per game and have averaged 399 total yards per game over their last three contests. Meanwhile the Panthers barely notch 20 points per game averaging just 20.3 per away game. They are also playing another game without Christian McCaffrey though Mike Davis is no slouch.

So while the scoring potential of each team favors the Drew Brees and company, what do the betting trends say?

Vs. Carolina

New Orleans and Carolina are currently all knotted up 25-25 all-time. Since 2006, the tune doesn’t change. Since Drew Brees and Sean Payton came to the Big Easy, the Saints are 14-14 in their 28 matchups against the Panthers. These two teams continuously go back and forth. However, New Orleans has been extremely successful in this series since 2016 where they are 6-2 and currently looking at their third all-time three game winning streak vs. the NFC South rival. The teams have also been closely competitive when it comes to the spread since 2006 as well with the Saints going 13-15 vs. the line. The over has been hit just 15 times in their last 28 meetings as well.

Saints performance off the bye week

New Orleans has been one of the best teams off of a bye week over the last ten years. Obviously last season didn’t go to plan as the Saints were embarrassed at home by the Atlanta Falcons. But even including that loss, the Saints are 7-3 straight up in games following a bye, tied for the second-best winning percentage total in the NFL during that span. Meanwhile, they are also 8-2 against the spread hitting the over seven times to only coming in under three times. It’s reasonable to continue to trust the Saints out of the bye week despite last year’s slip up against the Falcons.

When favored in October

Before the Lions game, we discussed the Saints fantastic October record. But the record is even more impressive when you look at games in which they are favored during the second month of the season. New Orleans, since 2006 has been favored in 38 October games. Through that span they are an impressive 31-7 straight up, 25-13 against the spread, and have hit the over 21 times to 17 times coming in under. More specifically, when favored by seven or more points they are 12-3 straight up. For Saints fans, they want a win above anything else. But worth noting that they cover at a far less efficient rate. During those 15 games they are 7-8 ATS and have hit the over only eight times. It might be worth it to remain cautious of the spread, especially considering this year’s Saints defense.

The Saints’ contest this weekend has had a mixture of good and bad news. 3,000 fans in the stands isn’t 73,000 of course, but it’s much better than 750. And there’s no doubt that will be 3,000 of the loudest and most passionate Saints fans in attendance. However, the Saints will be without both of their starting wide receivers in Michael Thomas (hamstring) and Emmanuel Sanders who was added to the COVID list on Friday. The Saints have overcome adversity already this season. Going 2-2 without Michael Thomas, missing both starting corners against Detroit, coming back from 14 down in that same contest, 17-point comeback as well against the Chargers, and now this. Can they do it again? Vegas certainly thinks so as the odds never dropped following the news on Sanders.

OVER/UNDER

Brees Passing Yards: 267.5
Bridgewater Passing Yards: 259.5
Brees Longest Air Yardage: 20.5 yards
Bridgewater Longest Air Yardage: 18.5 yards
Saints DPIs: 1.5
Passes Thrown at Marshon Lattimore: 4.5
Yards Conceded by Lattimore: 51.5
Kamara Yards from Scrimmage: 108.5 yards
Mike Davis Yards from Scrimmage: 93.5 yards
Saints Total Yards from Scrimmage: 369.5 yards

Can the Saints get their third straight win despite losing Sanders? Let us know in the comments. Make sure you follow Canal Street Chronicles on Twitter at @SaintsCSC, “Like” us on Facebook at Canal Street Chronicles, and make sure you’re subscribed to our new YouTube channel. As always, you can follow me on Twitter @RossJacksonNOLA and subscribe to my daily Saints podcast, Locked On Saints.